As the precursor awards begin, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

This week only featured one precursor, but it’s among the first and last awarded. It’s awards are always held the night before the Oscars, otherwise known as too late to impact our final predictions. That said, the Spirit Awards tend to recognize Oscar nominees among their choices and while they will pick the most likely to win if there are multiple Oscar nominees in the category, the winners aren’t particularly instructive, even if five of the last seven Spirit Award winners also won the Best Picture Oscar. Of this year’s five Best Feature nominees, only If Beale Street Could Talk is a major contender for a Best Picture nomination, so keep an eye on that film.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 2

Monday, Nov. 19 – NAACP Image Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Nov. 20 – Cairo Festival (Festival) (Official)
Tuesday, Nov. 20 – India Festival (Festival) (Official)
Tuesday, Nov. 20 – Producers Guild (Documentary) (Nominations) (Official)
Friday, Nov. 23 – Blue Dragon Film Awards (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

If Beale Street Could Talk is Barry Jenkins’ follow up to his Best Picture Oscar winner Moonlight, a period drama set about a wrongly accused black man trying to free himself before the birth of his child. The drama has been one of the most buzzed-about films of the Awards season and the solid performance the film had with the Spirit Awards suggests there’s genuine affection for the film. And since Jenkins did not win Best Directing that year, he’s certainly a contender there as well.
Eighth Grade was an indie drama that came out of nowhere after its debut at Sundance earlier this year to become a lead contender for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. Over time, the appreciation for the film has built to an extend that its strong showing suggests that perhaps it could branch out into Best Picture, Best Directing, and Best Actress at the Oscars this year. I suspect Original Screenplay will be it, but its high profile showing here is a positive sign.
First Reformed earned strong reviews following its premiere on the late summer festival circuit. The film instantly became a contender for Best Original Screenplay for Paul Schrader, but has been slowly building buzz for other categories including Best Picture and Best Actor. The Spirit Awards clearly love Schrader as he’s been a regular contender in their annual awards, but this could be his year to branch out and pick up his first Oscar nomination of a long career.

Big Losers

BlacKkKlansman first began buzzing when it was announced. Spike Lee tackling the Klu Klux Klan was sure to be a prime contender and still is. Yet, in spite of superb reviews, the film hasn’t managed to catch on in a way it should. With the single nomination for Adam Driver, the film should have been a much bigger player with the Spirit voters. Unfortunately, their nominating committee is small and may not favor the film. That said, critics can still bolster the film’s chances, but it has to be considered a bad sign that it didn’t make any inroads here.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? was always the kind of film that Spirit Award voters wouldn’t shower prizes on, yet with Richard E. Grant’s nomination, it was clear they saw the film, they just didn’t seem to appreciate the film. Without a nomination for Melissa McCarthy, her Best Actress chances clearly take a hit. However, if critics give her a boost, she has a chance. The film’s chances are also a bit dimmer now with its almost-complete shut-out. Again, this is something other precursors could rectify.
Boy Erased was said to be eligible for these awards and Joel Edgerton’s directorial debut should have been right up their alley, but the Spirit nominating committee turned its nose up entirely for the film with no citations for stars Lucas Hedges (who was nominated here just two years ago), Russell Crowe, and Nicole Kidman. While this isn’t entirely surprising considering the positive, yet not ebullient reviews the film has received. The film’s star has been descending since its debut, so this result isn’t surprising and it will need a lot of precursor support to dig itself out of this hole.