As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

Our first precursor of the year, the Spirit Awards nominations, came out last week. The below commentary is based solely on that information. The next couple of weeks will be very busy (as you can see below).

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 2

Monday, Nov. 28 – Annie Awards Nominations (Official)
Tuesday, Nov. 29 – National Board of Review Awards (Official)
Wednesday, Nov. 30 – New York Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Dec. 1 – Broadcast Critics Nominations (Official)
Thursday, Dec. 1 – Satellites Nominations (Official)
Saturday, Dec. 3 – DC Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Dec. 3 – Boston Online Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 4 – Los Angeles Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 4 – NY Online Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 5 – Grammy Awards Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 5 – DC Critics Awards (Official)

Big Winners

Moonlight is doing incredibly well this season and its high nomination count is a good sign. The film needs plenty of support from critics as well, but this is a fine start. While it didn’t receive any acting nominations, that was because it was ineligible, having been voted the Robert Altman award for the entire acting ensemble. That is both a good sign and potentially a bad omen if groups don’t single it out enough to bring names to the attention of Academy voters.
American Honey might be an underdog, but the Spirit Awards are about as far as it’s likely to go. The film doesn’t sound like an Oscar competitor and the places its recognized here are unlikely to be duplicated at the Oscars.
Manchester by the Sea has received all the critics attention it needs to be a major Oscar player. The precursors also have to play ball for it to compete. For the most part, the Spirit Awards are in the game, nominating the film for five awards, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay, and Best Editing. The problem it faces is that director Kenneth Lonergan was left off the list. This doesn’t bode well for its victory chances witht he Spirit Awards and might be the first sign that the film is struggling going into Oscar season.
Jackie not only received a Best Picture nomination, but also a Best Director citation. This along with Best Actress and Best Editing nominations gives the film a boost with the Academy. The surprise is that the screenplay wasn’t nominated. This might not bode well, but I suspect it will be a small blip in the awards season run for the film.

Big Losers

Paterson was nowhere to be seen at the Spirit Awards, a group that is predisposed to liking the film. Along with star Adam Driver being ignored, the film is directed by legendary Jim Jarmusch. While some felt this would be his chance to finally gain recognition from the Academy, all signs point to the film being utterly ignored.
Certain Women was Kelly Reichardt’s latest attempt at gaining awards traction. Although Wendy and Lucy was a solid competitor for Best Actress, her films remain Oscar nomination-less. That isn’t likely to change, especially since the strong female cast was completely ignored by the Spirit Awards, the one precursor body that should have been in the bag if it were a genuine contender.
Loving may have seen star Ruth Negga and director Jeff Nichols recognized, the film was otherwise ignored. For a high profile film about a major turning-point Supreme Court case to be poorly received, it seems like the film may have to satisfy itself with a Best Actress nomination, which looks a bit endangered at this point.
Hell or High Water is the kind of film the Spirit Awards typically recognize. A critically acclaimed drama about small-town folks being squeezed by the banking industry. The problem is that the film managed only three nominations, for Best Supporting Actor (Ben Foster), Screenplay, and Editing. Considering the early word on the film, it’s surprising that it was ignored in both Best Picture and Best Director, as well as for Best Actor Chris Pine and Supporting Actor for Jeff Bridges. Foster’s nod is a welcome one for the film and may help it gain some Oscar traction, but the film needs a major boost from other precursors to stay in the race.