Somehow I managed to forget to post this Friday when I had intended as opposed to today when I hadn’t intended. I haven’t changed any predictions, so the SAG and PGA victories over the weekend would not have impacted the below predictions. After the DGA, we’ll consider revising. Then, in February, we’ll start our annual category-by-category analysis of the races.

In spite of this being our first inclination of what will occur, we’ve aligned on a surprising 14 categories, including Best Picture, the one category getting the most discussion as being the most in flux. Some other categories like Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Visual Effects aren’t as surprising. In addition, there are no categories where our pick for winner different entirely from each other. There are always at least two of us who agree on the same selection.

KEY:

Best Picture

• 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Runners-Up:

• American Hustle (TB O)
• Gravity (WL O) (PP O)

Best Animated Feature

• The Croods
• Despicable Me 2
• Ernest & Celestine
• Frozen (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• The Wind Rises

Runners-Up:

• The Wind Rises (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (PP O)
• Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (TB O)
• Alexander Payne – Nebraska
• David O. Russell – American Hustle
• Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Runners-Up:

• Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (WL O) (TB O)
• Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (PP O)

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – American Hustle
• Bruce Dern – Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (PP O)
• Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (TB O)

Runners-Up:

• Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (TB O)
• Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (PP O)

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Sandra Bullock – Gravity
• Judi Dench – Philomena
• Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Runners-Up:

• Amy Adams – American Hustle (WL O)
• Judi Dench – Philomena (PP O) (TB O)

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
• Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
• Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
• Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
• Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Runners-Up:

• Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Best Supporting Actress

• Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
• June Squibb – Nebraska

Runners-Up:

• Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine (PP O)
• Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (WL O) (TB O)

Best Original Screenplay

• American Hustle (TB O)
• Blue Jasmine
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Her (WL O) (PP O)
• Nebraska

Runners-Up:

• American Hustle (WL O) (PP O)
• Her (TB O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Before Midnight
• Captain Phillips
• Philomena
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Runners-Up:

• Before Midnight (PP O)
• Philomena (WL O) (TB O)

Best Original Score

• The Book Thief
• Gravity (O) (PP O)
• Her
• Philomena (TB O)
• Saving Mr. Banks

Runners-Up:

• Gravity (TB O)
• Her (O)
• Saving Mr. Banks (PP O)

Best Original Song

• Alone Yet Not Alone – Alone Yet Not Alone
• Happy – Despicable Me 2
• Let It Go – Frozen (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• The Moon Song – Her
• Ordinary Love – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Runners-Up:

• Ordinary Love – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Best Editing

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Runners-Up:

• 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Best Cinematography

• The Grandmaster
• Gravity (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Nebraska
• Prisoners

Runners-Up:

• Inside Llewyn Davis (PP O)
• Nebraska (WL O)
• Prisoners (TB O)

Best Production Design

• 12 Years a Slave (PP O) (TB O)
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• The Great Gatsby (WL O)
• Her

Runners-Up:

• Gravity (WL O) (PP O)
• The Great Gatsby (TB O)

Best Costume Design

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle (WL O)
• The Grandmaster
• The Great Gatsby (TB O)
• The Invisible Woman (PP O)

Runners-Up:

• 12 Years a Slave (PP O) (TB O)
• The Great Gatsby (WL O)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
• The Lone Ranger

Runners-Up:

• The Lone Ranger (WL O) (TB O)

Best Sound Mixing

• Captain Phillips
• Gravity (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Lone Survivor

Runners-Up:

• Captain Phillips (TB O)
• Inside Llewyn Davis (WL O) (PP O)

Best Sound Editing

• All Is Lost
• Captain Phillips
• Gravity (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Lone Survivor

Runners-Up:

• All Is Lost (PP O)
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (WL O)
• Lone Survivor (TB O)

Best Visual Effects

• Gravity (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Iron Man 3
• The Lone Ranger
• Star Trek: Into Darkness

Runners-Up:

• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (WL O)
• Star Trek: Into Darkness (TB O)

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Broken Circle Breakdown
• The Great Beauty (PP O) (TB O)
• The Hunt (WL O)
• The Missing Picture
• Omar

Runners-Up:

• The Great Beauty (WL O)
• The Hunt (PP O) (TB O)

Best Documentary Feature

• 20 Feet from Stardom (TB O)
• The Act of Killing (WL O) (PP O)
• Cutie and the Boxer
• Dirty Wars
• The Square

Runners-Up:

• 20 Feet from Stardom (PP O)
• Dirty Wars (WL O)
• The Square (TB O)

Best Documentary Short

• CaveDigger
• Facing Fear
• Karama Has No Walls
• The Lady in Number 6 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Prison Terminal

Runners-Up:

• Facing Fear (TB O)
• Prison Terminal (WL O) (PP O)

Best Animated Short

• Feral (PP O)
• Get a Horse! (WL O) (TB O)
• Mr. Hublot
• Possessions
• Room on the Broom

Runners-Up:

• Room on the Broom (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Best Live-Action Short

• Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
• Avant Que De Tou Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
• Helium (WL O) (PP O)
• Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
• The Voorman Problem (TB O)

Runners-Up:

• Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me) (TB O)
• The Voorman Problem (WL O) (PP O)