Just around the corner (this week and next), the precursor awards will start pouring out. In anticipation of this and updating our first time since October (just after Toronto/Telluride), we’re giving you a glimpse into our pre-precursor predictions.

What this is means is that depending on how the precursors go and who they select, we could see a shift in our predictions. We update to see where the race is before the critics have their say. Since our last list, The Wolf of Wall Street is announced to be staying in 2013, but The Monuments Men is moving into an early 2014 berth (meaning the film was likely going to do poorly with critics and be unable to mount a serious Oscar campaign as previously thought). At this early stage, there aren’t very many locks, but the most interesting aspect of our list below is that Best Actress has been narrowed down to five women that Peter, Tripp and I have agreed on (a rare occurrence indeed).

Additionally, in many categories, all three of us agree on two or three potential nominees and agreement between at least two of us is even more abundant. The race seems to be shaping up in a direction that some will insist indicates a lack of suspense, but there are a number of mysterious factors still in play that may change the nominations and from there, we’ll see how predictable things are.

KEY:

Best Picture

• 12 Years a Slave (A) (O) (T)
• American Hustle (A) (N) [New]
• August: Osage County (O)
• Blue Jasmine (T) (A)
• Captain Phillips (N) [New] (O) (O/N)
• Dallas Buyers Club (O/T)
• Fruitvale Station (A)
• Gravity (T) (A) (T)
• Her (N) [New]
• Inside Llewyn Davis (O) (O/N) (O/N)
• Lee Daniels’ The Butler (O) (N) [New]
• Nebraska (T) (O)
• Philomena (A)
• Saving Mr. Banks (N) [New] (O) (A)
• The Wolf of Wall Street (O) (O)

Best Director

• Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Lewyn Davis (N) [New]
• Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (T) (A) (N) [New]
• Lee Daniels – Lee Daniels’ The Butler (A)
• Stephen Frears – Philomena (T)
• Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips (O)
• Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (T) (O) (T)
• Alexander Payne – Nebraska (O)
• David O. Russell – American Hustle (N) [New] (N) [New]
• Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street (O) (O)

Best Actor

• Bruce Dern – Nebraska (T) (O)
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (O)
• Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (A) (O) (T)
• Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips (O)
• Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station (O)
• Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (O) (O) (N) [New]
• Robert Redford – All Is Lost (N) [New] (A) (A)
• Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler (A)

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (A) (A) (A)
• Sandra Bullock – Gravity (T) (T) (N) [New]
• Judi Dench – Philomena (A) (O) (A)
• Meryl Streep – August: Osage County (O/T) (O) (O/T)
• Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks (T) (O) (A)

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips (N) [New] (N) [New] (N) [New]
• Daniel Bruhl – Rush (A)
• Bradley Cooper – American Hustle (N) [New]
• Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (A) (O) (T)
• John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis (N) [New]
• Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks (A) (N) [New]
• Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (T) (T) (N) [New]
• Matthew McConaughey – The Wolf of Wall Street (T)

Best Supporting Actress

• Scarlett Johanssen – Her (N) [New]
• Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (N) [New]
• Margo Martindale – August: Osage County (O)
• Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (T) (T) (T)
• Julia Roberts – August: Osage County (O)
• Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station (A/N) (O)
• June Squibb – Nebraska (T) (T) (N) [New]
• Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler (N) [New] (T) (T)

Best Original Screenplay

• American Hustle (A) (T)
• Blue Jasmine (A) (T) (T)
• Gravity (T) (N) [New]
• Her (N) [New] (T)
• Inside Llewyn Davis (A) (O) (N) [New]
• Nebraska (N) [New] (T)
• Saving Mr. Banks (T)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• 12 Years a Slave (A) (O) (T)
• August: Osage County (A) (N) [New] (T)
• Before Midnight (A) (O) (T)
• Captain Phillips (A)
• Lee Daniels’ The Butler (A)
• Philomena (A) (T)
• The Wolf of Wall Street (A) (N) [New]