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With the Academy Award nominations scheduled for announcement on January 16, 2014, the critics phase of Precursor Season has started to wind down, meaning fewer groups are announcing their prizes and a consensus among critics is beginning to develop. There are still a few more to come, but only the guild awards will give us a better insight into what is destined to show up on Oscar Morning.

While 12 Years a Slave continues to perform phenomenally well, another film has begun emerging as a major competitor for Steve McQueen’s slave saga. David O. Russell’s American Hustle has been amassing an impressive list of nominations (few wins, though) and appears to be developing a reputation in the blogosphere as the fly in 12 Years‘ ointment. Could the more feel-good film triumph over the serious drama again this year? We’ve seen that happen a lot in recent years and signs are pointing towards that being a possibility. Although we aren’t predicting it, should all four primary actors receive nominations at the Oscars, a great case could be made. There are still more signs pointing towards the poignant 12 Years taking a victory lap, but its frontrunner position is in jeopardy.

The Wolf of Wall Street has been getting strong reviews, but Paramount bungled its screenings of the film, leaving it as a no-show among several prominent precursor groups. The Satellites nominated the film even though evidence shows they didn’t see it. The Screen Actors Guild ignored it altogether and the Golden Globe nominations showed weak support for the film. As it hits the box office on Christmas, we may not know until then if the film has legs, but a strong showing at the guild nominations could help.

At this point in the game, you can see below just how many films are appearing on all three of our lists. Some categories have fractured more than our last report and others have cemented towards a specific set of frontrunners with some vague ideas of potential spoilers. This is also our first posting that ranks the films in Best Picture in the order we think they are guaranteed Oscar nominations. 12 Years a Slave is still first, topping all of our lists (30 points), with Gravity and American Hustle close behind. The next three entries are tightly arranged in fourth through sixth places (Her, Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska). The rest have a smattering of support, but all of them could be potential nominees. Note that the first number in parentheses is our combined total. The numbers in the parens with our prediction dates are our individual numbers. 10 points for our top prediction and 1 point for our bottom prediction.

At this point, we may have one or two more prediction updates. We’ll for sure have one final pre-nominations list. We may have one interim one where we take the other missing categories (especially those with shortlists) and give you our thoughts on those categories alone. Until then, enjoy the update.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(A) = August Predictions
(T) = Post-Telluride / Toronto Predictions
(N) = November Predictions
(D) = December Predictions

Best Picture

  • (30) 12 Years a Slave (10 A) (10 O) (10 T)
  • (24) American Hustle (9 A) (7 A/D) [Return] (8 N)
  • (11) Captain Phillips (6 N) (5 O/N)
  • (4) Dallas Buyers Club (4 O/T)
  • (26) Gravity (8 T) (9 A) (9 T)
  • (19) Her (5 D) [New] (8 N) (6 D) [New]
  • (17) Inside Llewyn Davis (7 O) (6 O/N) (4 O/N)
  • (3) Lee Daniels’ The Butler (1 O) (2 T/D) [Return]
  • (14) Nebraska (2 D) (5 T) (7 O)
  • (7) Philomena (4 D) [New] (3 A)
  • (3) Saving Mr. Banks (2 O) (1 A)
  • (7) The Wolf of Wall Street (3 O) (1 O/D) [Return] (3 O)

Best Animated Feature

  • Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (O) [New]
  • The Croods (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • Despicable Me 2 (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • Epic (O) [New]
  • Frozen (O) [New] (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • Monsters University (O) [New] (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • The Wind Rises (O) [New] (O) [New] (O) [New]

Best Director

  • Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Lewyn Davis (PP N) (TB D) [New]
  • Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (WL T) (PP A) (TB N)
  • Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips (WL D) [New]
  • Spike Jonze – Her (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
  • Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (WL T) (PP O) (TB T)
  • David O. Russell – American Hustle (WL N) (TB N)
  • Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street (WL O) (PP O/D) [Return]

Best Actor

  • Bruce Dern – Nebraska (WL O/D) [Return] (PP T) (TB O)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (TB D) [New]
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips (WL D) [New] (PP O) (TB O/D) [Return]
  • Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (PP O) (TB N)
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Her (PP D) [New]
  • Robert Redford – All Is Lost (WL N)

Best Actress

  • Amy Adams – American Hustle (TB D) [New]
  • Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (WL A) (PP A) (TB A)
  • Sandra Bullock – Gravity (WL T) (PP T)
  • Judi Dench – Philomena (WL A) (PP O) (TB A)
  • Meryl Streep – August: Osage County (WL O/T) (PP O) (TB O/T)
  • Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks (WL T) (PP O) (TB A)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips (WL N) (PP N) (TB N)
  • Daniel Bruhl – Rush (WL D) [New] (PP A)
  • Bradley Cooper – American Hustle (WL N) (TB D) [New]
  • Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks (PP A)
  • Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street (TB D) [New]
  • Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (WL T) (PP T) (TB N)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine (PP T/D) [Return]
  • Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (WL N) (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New]
  • Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (WL T) (PP T) (TB T)
  • Julia Roberts – August: Osage County (WL O) (TB D) [New]
  • June Squibb – Nebraska (WL T) (PP T) (TB N)
  • Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler (WL N) (PP T) (TB T)

Best Original Screenplay

  • American Hustle (WL A) (PP A/D) [Return] (TB T)
  • Blue Jasmine (WL A) (TB T)
  • Her (WL N) (PP D) [New] (TB T)
  • Inside Llewyn Davis (WL A) (PP O) (TB N)
  • Nebraska (WL A/D) [Return] (PP N) (TB T)
  • Saving Mr. Banks (PP T)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • August: Osage County (WL A) (TB T)
  • Before Midnight (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • Captain Phillips (PP A)
  • Philomena (WL D) [New] (PP A) (TB T)
  • The Wolf of Wall Street (WL A) (PP O/D) [Return] (TB N)

Best Visual Effects

  • Elysium (O) [New]
  • Gravity (O) [New] (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • Iron Man 3 (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • Oblivion (O) [New]
  • Pacific Rim (O) [New] (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • Star Trek: Into Darkness (O) [New]
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (O) [New] (O) [New] (O) [New]
  • World War Z (O) [New]

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