Every year, I try to decide if I want to stick to my tradition or go in a new direction. At over 6,000 words last year, and with very little time left this year, I’ve had to consider what’s best for me and for you. That many words is hard to read and I suspect no one even bothers, skipping ahead to the predictions. As such, I’m going to pare down this year’s post a bit. I’ll still try to give my analysis of each category, but I’m not going to focus on the order of announcement and its meaning for later races. That doesn’t apply in the Best Picture discussion, where I will still try to look at each contender as a product of what came before.

Further, I have also decided to eliminate my traditional PDF of nominees for checking-off purposes. It was a time consuming effort that I doubt many people used. I will list the contenders in each category section with my selections in bold. That way you can just print this article or follow along with it as the nominations are announced.

Before I get into the details, let’s prepare for Tuesday morning’s announcement of the 95th Annual Academy Awards Nominations.

With the morning announcement largely laid out for us and not having changed much in the last couple of years, I feel comfortable in sticking very closely to the announced list of categories, placements, and more.

Based on the Academy’s press release, the category breakdown will be as follows. Though, it should be noted that they’ve specifically changed up this order three years in a row, so take some of the category placements with a teaspoon of salt. The nominations will be announced by Oscar nominee Riz Ahmed and actor Allison Williams.

Group 1 (alphabetical order):

• Actor in a Supporting Role
• Actress in a Supporting Role
• Animated Feature Film
• Animated Short Film
• Costume Design
• Live Action Short Film
• Makeup and Hairstyling
• Music (Original Score)
• Sound
• Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• Writing (Original Screenplay)

Group 2 (alphabetical order):

• Actor in a Leading Role
• Actress in a Leading Role
• Cinematography
• Directing
• Documentary Feature
• Documentary Short Subject
• Film Editing
• International Feature Film
• Music (Original Song)
• Best Picture
• Production Design
• Visual Effects

They have not announced a more specific category announcement order, so the information below will be ordered in reverse order of importance.

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:30am PST / 7:30am CST / 8:30am EST / 1:30pm GMT / 9:30pm China for Group 1 and 5:41am PST / 7:41am CST / 8:41am EST / 1:41pm GMT / 9:41pm China for Group 2.

To find my Hopefuls list without the commentary, click here: listed as Hopefuls.

Don’t miss all of Cinema Sight’s contributors and their thoughts alongside mine in today’s other post: final nominations predictions post.

Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. At the beginning of each category, there’s an alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order. Traditionally, the nominations had been announced in alphabetical order by film title in all except the acting categories, which will be ordered by last name.

Group 1

Best Animated Short Film

Black Slide
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Debutante
The Flying Sailor
The Garbage Man
Ice Merchants
It’s Nice in Here
More than I Want to Remember
My Year of Dicks
New Moon
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Passenger
Save Ralph
Sierra
Steakhouse

There’s not a lot to say about this category. Most people haven’t seen all of the submissions and those who have might have more insight, but even they probably don’t know what will pique the interests of Oscar voters. Further, since the pool of voters changes every year, it’s susceptible to whims, so this is a dump category for most of us and will probably hurt our tallies more than help it.

Best Live Action Short Film

All in Favor
Almost Home
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
The Lone Wolf
Nakam
Night Ride
Plastic Killer
Le Pupille
The Red Suitcase
The Right Words
Sideral
The Treatment
Tula
Warsha

Another category dependent on the voting pool selected to review the submissions. Comedies don’t often do well, but dramas on important social subjects can and will. The occasional inspirational story will also pop in.

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick

The final five nominations will come from this list of ten films. Top Gun: Maverick has always been a prime contender for a nomination, and it’s probably the only solid lock. This branch also loves war films, so the late emergence of All Quiet on the Western Front likely puts it in second. The next two selections are solid bets, but not guarantees. Elvis, because these voters love music-oriented films, and Avatar: The Way of Water because it would be shocking if a James Cameron film didn’t get a citation here.

That leaves one slot for any of the other six films. Although Everything Everywhere All at Once and Babylon are solid bets for inclusion (as are the other four really), The Batman has managed to hold on from early in the year, so it has a good chance, but Everything relies so much on its sound that it is a solid threat.

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Northman
RRR
The Woman King
Women Talking

Until Black Panther: Wakanda Foreveer missed out at BAFTA, it was thought to be untouchable in this category for a nomination. Even considering that, I doubt the Academy would overlook Ruth E. Carter. Elvis is the only real lock in this category thanks to Catherine Martin’s history in this category and the voluminous shiny costumes she had to create. The only other pretty good bet for a nomination is Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, which is a period frock flick about fashion and I think it should be in. What’s interesting is that film was on my original list, but I dropped it out thinking there weren’t enough frocks in it. I think I was wrong.

For the remaining two slots, there are several films that could pick it up. I have no solid bets among them, though Babylon, Amsterdam, Corsage, and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore have a lot of period pieces and they have prominent costume designers attached, so picking two of these could be a solid bet, but don’t overlook Empire of Light or The Fabelmans for the same reason. While I’m picking Babylon of these three, I’m also going out on a limb to give The Woman King the fifth slot. Another Black costume designer would make a statement and there are a lot of uncommon looks in the film that could appeal.

That said, I wouldn’t count out the two I didn’t pick or any one of a number of other contenders in the list above.

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Devotion
Don’t Worry Darling
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking

This category is stacked this year in terms of the big names that are on it. My five predictions are all prior winners, so that makes for a potent combo. Although I didn’t care much for Babylon‘s score, it’s one of the most recognized of the year, so it’s in. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is also a likely inclusion in spite of my lack of interest. Alexandre Desplat is becoming a perennial nominee like John Williams was. Speaking of Williams, I can’t imagine the Academy not recognizing him. Although the next Indiana Jones film is said to be his last score, this one might well be his last nomination.

Then we have two slots with a lot of flux. Women Talking is Hildur Guðnadóttir’s latest score and since she had a one-two punch with Tár this year, I can’t imagine her getting overlooked for this film (or that possibly). The fifth slot, I’m going with All Quiet on the Western Front, which has taken most prognosticators by surprise (to be fair, it was on my first set of hopefuls for this year, so maybe it wasn’t too far fetched). Beyond that, Terence Blanchard (The Woman King) and Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin) are good possibilities as well. There are a few other scores on the list above that could make it through, but if anything squeaks in, I think it might be Everything, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Banshees either.

Best Adapted Screenplay

After Yang
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bones and All
Catherine Called Birdy
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Good Nurse
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
White Noise
Women Talking

This category has been incredibly amorphous this year and what was once thought to be a guarantee early in the year is now a borderline selection. Almost every one of the above is a borderline candidate, so none of them are really safe.

Ultimately, I settled on All Quiet because of its nomination dominance at BAFTA, Living because you don’t often get a Nobel laureate on your nomination list for adapting an acclaimed film from a Japanese master. Then things get a bit weird. She Said may have faded over time, but it managed a minor resurgence at BAFTA, so I think it might be in a better position than Women Talking, which has completely faded in the home stretch.

In spite of its mediocre reviews, The Whale is proving to be a stealth contender this year mainly because people are seeing it because of Brendan Fraser. Had his performance not gainte traction, this film wouldn’t be going anywhere. Then there’s the big question of Glass Onion and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The former was thought to be a major contender all year, but it’s not very common for film sequels to get nominated, so it might struggle to hold on. Pinocchio has a different concern. It’s loosely based on a fairy tale and those seldom form the basis for strong contenders.

Best Original Screenplay

Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Menu
Nope
Tár
Till
Triangle of Sadness
The Woman King

Of all the categories, this one seems to have coalesced the most. Three films are locked in for nods: Banshees, Everything, and Tár. While it could happen, it would be shocking if any of these three didn’t make it through.

The Fabelmans has faded a bit in general, but its screenplay by Tony Kushner has remained a formidable contender. The fifth slot is likely to go to Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. Although I don’t think the Academy will go for this film in general, it could be recognized for its originality. Of course, any of the other films still has a shot, especially truly inventive ones like The Menu and Nope.

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt – Babylon
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Mark Rylance – Bones and All
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

Ke Huy Quan and his comeback story is a certainty. His omission would send shockwaves through the industry. The same could be said for Brendan Gleeson whose a well respected actor delivering yet another great performance. Without him, Banshees doesn’t work. The remaining three slots are amorphous.

While I think Barry Keoghan will earn the rare double nomination from a single film (Banshees), the other two are more guesses than certainties. Eddie Redmayne has done surprisingly well this season even though his film has hardly been doing much. The same is true of Brian Tyree Henry. Apart from Quan, there aren’t any other actors of color who could make the list. I suspect Henry might squeeze in over Paul Dano or Mark Rylance, but Brad Pitt might just surprise everyone and score another nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
Nina Hoss – Tár
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Lashana Lynch – The Woman King
Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan – She Said
Keke Palmer – Nope
Jean Smart – Babylon
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Kerry Condon seems to be the only certainty in this category, though Angela Bassett is fairly likely to earn a nomination. While Jamie Lee Curtis has been mentioned quite a lot, hers isn’t the kind of performance that usually gets nominated here and I could see her missing out. It might be a wee bit of a scandal, but not entirely unexpected, but a career-first nomination is likely.

With the surprise success of The Whale, Hong Chau, who was unfairly ignored for previous work, is very possible as one of the five. I could see her missing as well, so who knows. I also really want to predict another double nomination from the same film, this time for Everything. Stephanie Hsu hasn’t gotten nearly the attention of her co-stars, but damned if she doesn’t deserve recognition for her performance. I have her on the periphery of a nomination, barely squeezing in.

That said, Dolly De Leon, Janelle Monáe, and Carey Mulligan all have fairly strong credentials for nomination and I could see any one of them sneaking in. Then there’s the strange case of Michelle Williams. She wanted to be campaigned in lead, but her candidacy has hit several stumbling blocks, most notably at BAFTA. Had she competed in support, it’s possible she could have won. That said, Kate Winslet managed to overcome an attempt to shoe-horn her into support, but actors nominated her where some felt she belonged. The same could happen to Williams who might just shock with an appearance in this category.

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Group 2

Now begins Act II.

Best Documentary Short Subject

American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton
Anastasia
Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison
As Far as They Can Run
The Elephant Whisperers
The Flagmakers
Happiness Is £4 Million
Haulout
Holding Moses
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Nuisance Bear
Shut Up and Paint
Stranger at the Gate
38 at the Garden

This is another of those categories where no one is really an expert and predicting the contents is sometimes a fool’s errands.

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Children of the Mist
Descendant
Fire of Love
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
The Territory

The documentary branch often makes unusual selections. This year, acclaimed doc Good Night Oppy didn’t even make the finalist list. While there are a few that have received acclaim, I’ve ultimately tried to choose a mix of popular selections, critical faves, and surprises. The biggest surprise I think may come to pass is a nomination for The Janes.

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
The Blue Caftan
Cairo Conspiracy
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
Joyland
Last Film Show
The Quiet Girl
Return to Seoul
Saint Omer

While my predictions are filled with prominent critic choices, there’s usually a shocker or two. I suspect that Close or Corsage may struggle against a tide of familiarity and while I would love to predict Saint Omer something tells me that category leader France will get dumped in favor of something a bit more unusual. It’s also best to try and spread your predictions across the globe as pure European fare rarely makes a solid 5-for-5 appearance, which is why I put Argentina and South Korea in the mix.

Best Original Song

Applause – Tell It Like a Woman
Carolina – Where the Crawdads Sing
Ciao Papa – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Dust & Ash – The Voice of Dush and Ash
Good Afternoon – Spirited
Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick
Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
My Mind and Me – Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
Naatu Naatu – RRR
New Body Rhumba – White Noise
Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength) – Avatar: The Way of Water
Stand Up – Till
This Is a Life – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Til You’re Home – A Man Called Otto
Time – Amsterdam

It’s possible that Diane Warren makes an appearance for her documentary song “Applause,” but the five items I selected are all reasonably popular from mostly famous musical artists. This is a hard category because my predictions for the top 9 are all almost interchangeable. I can’t really see “Hold My Hand,” “Naatu Naatu,” “Lift Me Up,” or “Ciao Papa” missing out. I’m sure one of them will be the surprise exclusion, but I’m putting Taylor Swift’s “Carolina” in fifth, but “New Body Rhumba,” “Stand Up,” and “Applause” are also equally plausible.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Elvis
Emancipation
The Whale

Heavy prosthetics for making Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell fat are probably to the two most likely nominees in this bunch. While I’d like to put Elvis in that list for the transformation of Tom Hanks, I don’t think it’s anything close to a lock.

There’s sometimes an unexpected foreign entry on this list, but All Quiet was the only one to make the shortlist. Babylon makes my list only because of the more subtle, but remarkable makeup effects employed in the film, but I’m not sure it deserves a spot above All Quiet on the likelihood list. That said, I could also make a case for Crimes of the Future. It might be the more traditional odd duck in this list than any of the others.

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Northman
RRR
White Noise
The Woman King

This category rarely goes 5-for-5 with Best Costume Design, but is often quite close. All Quiet has those incredibly realistic trenches, which is why I put it on the list, but there is such an amorphous group of contenders that I think it probably has a solid bet of being included. That said, it seems to me that the only genuine lock for a nomination is Babylon for creating three impressive sets (among many). The opening sequence in the remote house and its chaos, the first visit to a sound set in the middle of the desert, and the sound studio design where positioning and compactness are a requisite.

What’s not as solid as I thought it would be is Avatar: The Way of Water, a film that has been quickly fading in its prominence all season and has gone from a potential near-double-digit leader to a low single-digits contender. Everything is also a solid contender, but is it more than just a modern-set feature to the voters in this categories? It’s production design is almost a character in the grand scheme of things, so I think I might be overlooking its potential. What’s even stranger is how little crossover I have in this category, which is a bit alarming to me. Of the films I’ve predicted, Elvis is the only one on my Best Costume Design slate and even that film seems a bit weaker of a contender than some of the films that come below it.

I could also see the massive fictional locales of Banshees making the list and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has done well this season in the precursors, but may be overly familiar compared to its predecessor, but those underwater areas might bolster its chances The Fabelmans might be a weaker contender, but it’s The Northman below it that I think could be the shocker. Like Banshees, that vast village set might just be enough to score a nomination. Of course, there are several films on the list that could contend, so this might be the most amorphous of categories this year.

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Nope
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick

There are two locks in this category. Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick. Both films seem destined for the nomination, though only Avatar is destined for a win.

Among the remaining three slots, any of the other eight films could make it in and if I said choosing three was easy, I’d be lying. Most often equals better, which leads me to believe Doctor Strange and Fantastic Beasts might be sitting pretty. Nope doesn’t have a lot, but it has enough to be impressive. Of course, Jurassic World and Black Panther also have lots of effects, so they could get in.

That said, sometimes subtle makes the list, which could aid All Quiet, Thirteen Lives, and The Batman. There are no shortlisters that don’t have a least some plausibility to their potential.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
The Batman
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Emancipation
Empire of Light
EO
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Nope
The Northman
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

The potential selections for this category has seemed quite chaotic all season long. The only film to be a mainstay is Top Gun: Maverick. Yet, it’s the BAFTA nominations that may have clarified some things in the race. Although the campaign for Empire of Light seemed to implode, it has been consistent in its appearance here and thus it makes the list somewhat easily. Fellow BAFTA nominee The Batman also got a boost.

Ultimately, I selected the BAFTA five rather than the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) five, including Elvis and All Quiet. That’s because ASC and the Academy rarely, if ever, match fully and the film I’m choosing to drop is Bardo, since it’s the film BAFTA dropped. The film hasn’t been terribly popular this season in spite of its pedigree, so I don’t expect it to do well at all.

That said, The Fabelmans, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Babylon all have prominent past Oscar nominees at the helm while Banshees, Everything, and Tár have been rather acclaimed this year, especially for their cinematography. It’s a tough category with only Top Gun locked in, so surprises are definitely possible.

Best Film Editing

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Nope
RRR
She Said
Tár
Till
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

This category frequently matches up with the Best Picture slate. Matter of fact, films winning this nomination are far more likely to win Best Picture than those who do not. Everything and Top Gun are locks while All Quiet is a war film, which makes it like catnip for the editors branch. Beyond that, it’s a bit of a grand melee for the fourth and fifth slots.

Banshees is a Best Picture contender, so a nomination here would not be surprising, though a failure to earn a nod here might doom its chances. Elvis isn’t a Best Picture contender, but it has flashy editing, which puts it in prime position for a nod. Babylon is pure chaos, which might help. Fabelmans is from a well-respected editor while Avatar, Woman King, and RRR contend as a result of their explosive action. Tár is a strong contender in its own right, but it doesn’t have flashy editing, which puts it a bit lower on the chance list, but no less a potential nominee.

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis
Diego Calva – Babylon
Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto
Hugh Jackman – The Son
Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Jeremy Pope – The Inspection
Adam Sandler – Hustle

Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, and Austin Butler are the only actors sure to make the list, though Butler missing out wouldn’t be completely unusual. Bill Nighy has been quietly amassing nominations all precursor season, so he has a solid claim to the nomination. That leaves only one slot available.

Paul Mescal has shifted into a strong position for a nomination thanks to his rising star status and this film’s surprising dominance of awards season. Hugh Jackman used to be a solid bet for a nomination, but his film hasn’t done well and he’s consistently replaced in spite of his popularity. Tom Cruise and Ralph Fiennes could also surprise with a nomination, but it’s Jeremy Pope and Adam Sandler who I think would be the biggest shockers on the list and thus perfect contenders to pull into that fifth slot.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár
Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Mia Goth – Pearl
Zoe Kazan – She Said
Vicky Krieps – Corsage
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Tang Wei – Decision to Leave
Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

If you aren’t predicting Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett for nominations, then you’re doing this wrong. Both have dominated awards season and have been competing mightily for the win, splitting nearly every prize.

The next two, while not safe, are still solid bets. Viola Davis is becoming the modern Meryl Streep while Danielle Deadwyler burst onto the scene with her humane performance in Till and has been heavily acclaimed all season. That leaves the fifth slot.

I’m not entirely sold on Ana de Armas for that slot, but her BAFTA and SAG nomination show she has the popularity and although the film is controversial, her performance is not. Michelle Williams used to be a solid bet for this category, but everyone’s been griping about her supporting status and while the Globes put her in lead, she might not have the votes with the Academy to make it that far. Surprise citations for Emma Thompson, Margot Robbie, or Olivia Colman are also possible.

The dark horse is Andrea Riseborough who’s been the beneficiary of a last-minute grassroots campaign. That said, the film has been non-existent before this recent revelation and to change enough votes to earn a nomination so late in the game is probably a fool’s errand, but I’m keeping her on the list because stranger things have happened.

Best Animated Feature

Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood
The Bad Guys
The Bob’s Burgers Movie
Charlotte
DC League of Super-Pets
Drifting Home
Eternal Spring
Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko
Goodbye, Don Glees!
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Inu-Oh
Lamya’s Poem
Lightyear
Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be
Luck
Mad God
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
My Father’s Dragon
New Gods: Yang Jian
Oink
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Run, Tiger Run!
The Sea Beast
Strange World
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

This is probably the most set category of the season with four films that are either locked or nearly locked into place. Likely future winner Pinocchio is the solid lock while Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish are the other. That said, this branch doesn’t care much for sequels and while Puss in Boots has been acclaimed, you can ask the likes of The Simpsons Movie, The Lego Movie, and myriad others what it’s like to be a strong contender that failed to get a nomination.

The fifth slot could go to one of the GKIDS entries. They have done quite well getting their films cited in this branch. I am tentatively putting Wendell & Wild in the fifth spot because it’s one of the few animated films to feature a predominantly Black cast and I can’t see them utterly ignoring the film. The Bad Guys, Inu-Oh, and Mad God are also solid contenders for that fifth slot. Some might say Apollo 10 1/2 might be, but there was already some controversy about the film being excluded from the shortlist (which didn’t happen), but the Academy’s animators have shown disdain for everything Richard Linklater has done, so I consider it an outlier.

Best Directing

Aftersun – Charlotte Wells
All Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger
Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron
Babylon – Damien Chazelle
The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
Decision to Leave – Park Chan-wook
Elvis – Baz Luhrmann
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg
Nope – Jordan Peele
RRR – S.S. Rajamouli
She Said – Maria Schrader
Tár – Todd Field
Till – Chinonye Chukwu
Top Gun: Maverick – Joseph Kosinski
The Whale – Darren Aronofsky
The Woman King – Gina Prince-Bythewood
Women Talking – Sarah Polley

While it might be controversial, I don’t think Everything is a lock. The Academy’s directors branch doesn’t often recognized joint directorial efforts and if there has to be a shocker in this category, it could be the Daniels getting left off. I’d still say it’s probably a good bet for one of the four top slots though. Joseph Kosinski went from borderline contender to solid bet for a nomination after his DGA appearance. Not because Top Gun is a natural fit for this category, but because he’s made a hugely popular and acclaimed blockbuster and that could get him in.

Todd Field has done surprisingly well this season and seems like a decent bet for the fourth slot, but the Academy rarely nominates the DGA slate entirely, which puts All Quiet in a prime position for a nomination. The directors branch usually cites a foreign language director in this category and Edward Berger seems like a pretty good bet, but I’m thinking Park Chan-wook could surprise with a nomination instead.

Then there’s Steven Spielberg. While everyone is betting he’ll be nominated, The Fabelmans has done modestly will this season, but is by no means well loved and I’m predicting he’s the shock omission. Charlotte Wells, Sarah Polley, and Gina Prince-Bythewood would add a bit of gender balance to the category, so any one of them could appear, but the sausage fest might be too strong this year to make it. Don’t count out Baz Luhrmann, S.S. Rajamouli, or James Cameron either.

Best Picture

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Nope
RRR
She Said
Tár
Till
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
The Whale
The Woman King
Women Talking

Aftersun has been quietly building all season. And it seems to have reached its peak at the right time, which means the film could be a surprise Best Picture nominee. While the film picking up a nomination for Paul Mescal or screenplay won’t presage a Best Picture nomination, if it shows up in Editing, Directing, or any other acting category, look for the surprise.

All Quiet on the Western Front Seemed like a major contender on paper early in the year, but Netflix wasn’t flogging it much and so it disappeared. That was until BAFTA put the film on its longlists more than any other film and then followed that up with a successful Best Picture nomination and a double-digit tally. With that and its appearance on several guild nomination lists, the film seems to be peaking perfectly and will likely end up with a solid nomination haul and a Best Picture nomination to boot. A sign o trouble will be if the film doesn’t pick up the below-the-line nominations we’re expecting. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Avatar: The Way of Water was looking to perform on par with its predecessor, but during the precursor season, its release didn’t send shockwaves and it looks like it might be fading at the wrong time. Still, with so many tech citations, the film is still on track for a nomination, but this one is one of three I would not be shocked to see get left off in favor of something else. The canary in the coal mine might be the film’s failure to receive nominations for Production Design and/or Sound. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Babylon is Damien Chazelle’s latest passion project, but it’s not been doing well with critics. The film is both a tribute and a rebuke of the Old Hollywood of the silent era and those diametrically opposed reflections aren’t appealing. That said, the film is working towards a handful of craft nominations, so it could be a spoiler, but it’s not one of my top choices for an upset. A sign it’s playing won’t be its craft citations, but nominations in Screenplay or acting.

The Banshees of Inisherin has proven that Martin McDonagh can do no wrong. Not only is the film critically acclaimed, it’s picked up its fair share of precursor citations. This is one of only three films that are locks for a nomination. The film could be in trouble if Barry Keoghan misses in Supporting actor or the below-the-line take for the film is anemic. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is a sequel to a Best Picture nominee and that could bolster its chances, but it hasn’t been doing that well with the precursors outside of Angela Bassett. Therefore, I’m not expecting it to earn a nomination. A good sign would be a healthy below-the-line slate beyond the handful already predicted, most notably Production Design and Visual Effects.

Decision to Leave could be a spoiler. It’s played incredibly well with critics and represents a style of film the Academy has been more apt to nominate in recent years. If Park Chan-wook shows up in Directing, a Best Picture nomination is still possible, but not much more likely. It would be screenwriting and craft nominations that point towards its spoiler status.

Elvis did well at the box office, but not great with critics. That said, the film has managed to do incredibly well this precursor season and I can’t imagine the film getting left off now. A good sign will be Baz Luhrmann in directing. A bad sign would be the film getting no craft nominations or just Costume Design. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Everything Everywhere All at Once is one of the three locks I previously mentioned. There’s no doubt it will get a nomination, but it’s faded a bit recently and double-digit nominations aren’t likely. That said, a strong showing would be Stephanie Hsu making it into Supporting Actress. A bad sign would be the film missing the Jamie Lee Curtis citation or a directing nomination. PREDICTED NOMINEE

The Fabelmans is likely to benefit from being a longtime known quantity. Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical story has done decently with critics, but rumors indicate it’s not terribly well loved. That could hurt the film. BAFTA notwithstanding, we might see signs of its weakness if it doesn’t show up in any craft category and none of its actors are cited. A lack of screenplay nomination could be another bad sign. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is wildly overpraised by critics just like its predecessor. The Academy doesn’t care for sequels, so its chances are mediocre at best. Still, a passionate fanbase within the Academy could benefit the film. A bad sign would be the film missing Best Adapted Screenplay. A good sign would be picking up the supporting actress nomination that seemed more certain weeks ago than it does today.

Nope wasn’t as popular at the box office as Jordan Peele’s other film and although the film has done decently during the precursors, it’s always taken a back seat to many of these other titles. A good sign would be a Screenplay nomination and some craft citations other than Visual Effects.

RRR was once thought to be the foreign entry most likely to get an Oscar nomination. The critics seemed to love it, but its been fading all Oscar season and its failure to pick up many below-the-line guild citations and its dismal performance at BAFTA suggest it’s probably done for. More than one nomination outside of Original Song would be a great sign for the film.

She Said faded early on in precursor season, but did manage to BAFTA nominations no one was certain the film would get. Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay are the two awards and that’s where you’ll know the strength of the film and its potential resurgence. If it picks up both and one or two other nominations, it could be nominated in Best Picture. otherwise, it isn’t a likely nominee. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Tár has remained strong all precursor season and while it hasn’t won a lot of precursor prizes, it won all the crucial BAFTA nominations and has been solidly represented at the guild. A positive sign could be Nina Hoss showing up in Supporting Actress or the film making it onto either the editing or cinematography lists. A bad sign would be it missing out on all of them. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Till may have catapulted Danielle Deadwyler into the Best Picture race, but the film hasn’t been well received and has been absent in most other cases this Oscar season. Several below-the-line citations could signal an improved chance at a Best Picture nomination while Deadwyler missing out in Best Actress is a sure fire fail.

Top Gun: Maverick is the third film that appears to be locked this year. While the Academy doesn’t care much for sequels, this one did so well at the box office, they would be fools to ignore it. Which might be the only reason it does miss out. That said, watch for a Best Directing nomination as a sign that it’s certain for Best Picture. If it misses out on Editing, Cinematography, and/or Visual Effects, its position has weakened. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Triangle of Sadness might have been popular in certain quarters, but it hasn’t caught on the way some would like. That said, it did decently at BAFTA and could be a surprise Best Picture nominee if Ruben Ostlund is nominated for his directing and the screenplay is also cited. Add some other craft nominations aand it could surprise. If Dolly De Leon doesn’t make it into Supporting Actress, the film is probably doomed in the top category.

The Whale wasn’t well received critically, but because of Brendan Fraser’s performance, many voters are seeing the film and that is the reason it’s catapulted into Best Picture. That and its PGA nomination. It could still miss out, especially if the screenplay and/or Hong Chau aren’t nominated. PREDICTED NOMINEE

The Woman King was though to be a major contender for a Best Picture nomination. It was reasonably popular at the box office. Precursor season even started promisingly for the film. That waned fast and it’s been consistently missing guild citations and the film seems to have faded enough to have been forgotten. While missing any of the nominations could signal certain defeat, mentions in Directing, screenplay, or several craft categories could bolster its chances.

Women Talking is another film that faded at the wrong time. BAFTA’s ignorance of the film certainly hurt the film’s chances. Being the 5th most cited Best Picture nominee of the year should mean something. As should the SAG cast nomination. Then again, it may still not be enough. Watch out for Adapted Screenplay and the acting categories. Those might show a resurgence for the film with a Directing nomination guaranteeing a Best Picture berth. Other than that, don’t expect much from it.

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And that’s everything for this year. I hope you enjoy. It’s been a crazy year, so let’s see how we do on the morrow.