FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

It’s always difficult to know precisely how the Academy will handle the announcements. We have the list of categories that will be announced and in which grouping, but we have no idea in what order they will be announced. We know that White Tiger actress and Bollywood star-turned Hollywood actress Priyanka Chopra Jonas and her husband Nick Jonas will be making the announcement. Chopra Jones has been in significantly more films than her young former teen heartthrob husband, but neither are exactly legends in the cinematic milieu. Last year’s presenters weren’t either, but the need for the Academy to reach younger audiences is an ever-challenging battle. Whether they will be any good or not (in spite of both being telegenic) remains to be seen.

We don’t know if there will be taped introductions then a voice-over reading of the nominees. We don’t know what precise order the nominees will be announced in. Based on the announcement info we know so far, my guess is that the announcement will be exactly like last year’s in terms of production values and oddness.

The category breakdown will be largely unchanged from last year. Group 1 is Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Costume Design, Music (Original Score), Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound, Writing (Adapted Screenplay), and Writing (Original Screenplay). Group 2 is Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Animated Feature Film, Cinematography, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Film Editing, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Song), Best Picture, Production Design, and Visual Effects.

They have not announced a more specific category announcement order, so the information below will be ordered as I see fit, largely tackling categories that won’t impact others first, then digging into the other categories.

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:19am PST / 7:19am CST / 8:19am EST / 1:19pm GMT / 9:19pm China for Group 1 and 5:31am PST / 7:31am CST / 8:31am EST / 1:31pm GMT / 9:31pm China for Group 2.

Every year, I put together an article that goes through the order of announcement and not only gives you an idea of what to expect, but how it might affect later announcements or might have been impacted by earlier ones. The above PDF features all of the films and individuals I’ve listed as Hopefuls on my site so that you can print it out and follow along as the announcements are made (at least as best you can).

With some of my personal opinions about the race highlighted in today’s other final nominations predictions post, I’m going to try and keep things brief. However, we all know how that usually turns out.

Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space. Traditionally, the nominations had been announced in alphabetical order by film title in all except the acting categories, which will be ordered by last name.

Group 1

Best Live Action Short Film

This category has no influence on future categories. As such, I’m not going to add much to what I said before since my opinions are largely guesses.

Bittu, Da Yie, Feeling, Human Voice, Kicksled, Letter, Present, Strangers, Van, White Eye

Best Animated Short Film

Another category of non-influence that is comprised entirely of guesses.

Burrow, Loci, If Anything, Kapaemahu, Opera, Out, Snail, Gerard, Traces, Yes-People

Best Sound

Now that Sound Mixing and Sound Editing have been unified, people who knew the difference will be disappointed, while those who were confused by it will be very excited. The big question is whether this will be all films with lots of sounds (effects, music, dialogue) or primarily noted for their effects. Previously, Sound Editing would always feature one strange nominee that wasn’t contending anywhere else 13 Hours and A Quiet Place for example. Who knows how that will play out this year. I suspect Greyhound might be an odd-one-out selection. Of the films showing up that might influence later announcements. Tenet not showing up here means it could be in for a rough ride in other catetgories. Midnight Sky won’t have much impact while Soul won’t really either, but its absence could be a clue that it didn’t make the Best Picture cut. Sound of Metal not getting nominated would be a huge scandal and might suggest the film has faded faster than any imagined. Mank losing out means it won’t hit 13 nominations as I predicted. The first nominee announced could set the tone for the rest of the day. A shock by Greyhound wouldn’t surprise, but Da 5 Bloods or Birds of Prey showing up first might. The fifth spot will be the other surprise. Tenet losing out would likely mean Chicago 7 is headed towards a bigger nomination tally than expected. Finally, an appearance of Nomadland, Ma Rainey’s, or One Night in Miami could be great bellwethers for those films, but they aren’t crucial.

Birds, 5 Bloods, Greyhound, Invisible Man, Ma Rainey’s, Mank, Midnight, Mulan, News World, Nomadland, Miami, Outpost, Prom, Soul, Metal, Tenet, Chicago 7, WW84

Best Costume Design

Whereas Sound isn’t an entirely pointless category for later influence, but Costume Design might well be the only craft category other than Makeup & Hairstyling to figure lower in terms of influence than Sound. Here, the top nominee will once again set the tone with Ammonite suggesting an upending of expectations and Birds of Prey being a welcome surprise. The last film will be one of a handful of films with Promising Young Woman benefiting most from the failure to cite Mulan or another of these.

Ammonite, Birds, Emma, First Cow, Jingle Jangle, Judas, Ma Rainey’s, Mank, Mulan, News World, Miami, Copperfield, Promising

Best Original Score

This category won’t have much influence this year unless we’re looking at a Minari or Mank shut out. The other films aren’t expected to make major showings, but News of the World not getting nominated might suggest a rough morning for that film. If Minari misses, almost all of the film’s acting nomination contenders might suddenly find their hopes evaporate, but possibly not. However, Mank not getting nominated will be an epic shock. It could mean that the film has utterly failed to impress and will be headed for single-digit nominations tally. Of course, we’ll learn very early on if either of these potentials play out since the list isn’t like to start before the letter “L.”

Ammonite, Blizzard Souls, 5 Bloods, Invisible Man, Jingle Jangle, Life Ahead, Little Things, Mank, Midnight, Minari, Mulan, News World, Soul, Tenet, Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay

Seven different Best Picture contenders populate this list of potentials. First Cow and I’m Thinking of Ending Things were doing terrifically in the early days of precursor season, but as the latter critics and guilds began announcing, they suddenly disappeared from consideration. Everything else here is in some way challenging for a spot on the Best Picture slate. Borat and News of the World must have these nominations to be Best Picture nominees, but either missing will pretty much doom their chances. The Father also needs this citation as the other three titles are pretty much assured nominations (Ma Rainey’s, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami. The first title announced will mean doom or success for The Father and would definitely spell doom for News of the World because first is either The Father or Borat. After that, News of the World has to wait for the third slot before it knows its fate. To get to third, it has to beat out BAFTA-loved The Mauritanian because Nomadland and One Night in Miami should be fourth and fifth respectively.

Borat, Father, First Cow, Ending Things, Ma Rainey’s, Mauritanian, News World, Nomadland, Miami

Best Original Screenplay

Surprisingly, eight Best Picture contenders are in the hunt for this nomination. Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Soul, and Sound of Metal absolutely have to have this nomination to guarantee Best Picture citations. Only Judas and Sound of Metal have more than a solid expectation of a Best Picture nomination if they don’t show up here, but getting this nomination will ensure it. Mank will, by this point, also know its chances. A complete drubbing in the prior-announced categories will mean its chances of a nod here are severely diminished and it hopes to be the first name read because any of the other three titles will severely hamper its chances as it would have to beat out both Minari and Sound of Metal for a spot and I don’t think that will be possible. Promising Young Woman, likely in the middle position, and The Trial of the Chicago 7, assuredly in the final one, are the only ones who can feel safe about changes around them.

5 Bloods, Forty-Year-Old, Judas, Mank, Minari, Never Rarely, Palm Springs, Promising, Soul, Metal, Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actor

The firs two nominees could determine who the remaining three are. Sacha Baron Cohen and Daniel Kaluuya are pretty much certain of nominations. Anyone appearing between them means trouble for Alan Kim and Paul Raci, the only two in this category who don’t have a firm grip on a nomination. If those two go first, then the third will likely determine who of Kim, Jared Leto, and Paul Raci take up the two spots. Leto going first eliminates one of the other two while Odom going fourth would eliminate Raci. Insert Kim in the place of Leto for other scenarios. Baron Cohen, Boseman, Kim, Raci, Turman each have a vested interest in appearing because failure to show up could mean a rough morning for their films.

Baron Cohen, Boseman, Burnham, Dennehy, Domingo, Hodge, Kaluuya, Kim, Langella, Leto, Murray, Odom, Raci, Rylance, Strathairn, Turman,

Best Supporting Actress

Once again, we have the first nominee determining the flow of the category with Maria Bakalova, Ellen Burstyn, and Glenn Close all hoping to be first as any one of them making the list first completely eliminates one or two other potentials including Dominique Fishback, Jodie Foster, Amanda Seyfried, and Helena Zengel. Zengel, on the other hand, hopes for a lot of these players to miss with Yuh-jung Youn coming in fourth. Yet, this is one of the most fluid categories, which could be most interesting, though. For later influence, Colman, Seyfried, and Youn missing out could mean trouble for the films while Bakalova, Cooke, Fishback, and Zengel showing up could mean better things for their films.

Bakalova, Burstyn, Close, Collette, Colman, Cooke, Fishback, Foster, Ryder, Seyfried, Youn, Zengel,

Group 2

After the first group announcement, and heading into the second, we could tell the relative strength of the following films for later nominations: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, The Mauritanian, Minari, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. The only films where these early categories won’t mean a lot to future prospects are Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami, which all have more telling encounters upcoming.

Best Documentary Feature

This is the first of the non-influential categories that has a small amount of educated guessing involved. The only titles here that could signal an improvement of chances in another category are Collective, which could need this nomination to be an International Feature nominee, and All In: The Fight for Democracy, which could also have an impact on Original Song. Beyond that, there’s not much to see here.

All In, Boys State, Collective, Crip Camp, Dick Johnson, Gunda, MLK/FBI, Mole Agent, Octopus, Notturno, Painter/Thief, 76 Days, Time, Truffle, Chechnya

Best Documentary Short Subject

Five more short films with no future impact. And guess what? more guessing.

Helpline, Blues, Colette, Concerto, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, Hysterical, Latasha, Cubers, Sophia Loren

Best Original Song

The relative strength of Minari might be felt here as a nomination for “Rain Song,” pretty much assures us that the film will be approaching high-single digit nominations. “Green” could be a positive sign for Sound of Metal, while none of the rest will really impact later predictions. That said, the big question is whether potency or humor is the winner of the day. “Husavik” and “Wuhan Flu” both need humor to be a major factory in selections in order to show up. There’s history of such decisions (think “Blame Canada” from South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut), but parody songs aren’t always well liked. Meanwhile, documentary songs are, which could mean “Turntables” might benefit from that historical trend. That said, we should know by the third nomination if they have favored humor as “Husavik” needs to follow “Fight for You” and “Hear My Voice” into that slot. That said, it could also be fourth, but that would be a bit of a surprise since “Io Si,” “Rain Song,” and “Speak Now” all hope that it isn’t displaced to fourth as “Speak Now” would be the obvious benefactor. That said, “Wuhan Flu” hopes that one of those major contenders falls because it has no other way onto the list and if there’s one slot left after “Speak Now,” then it has to hope history doesn’t repeat for “Turntables.”

Fight for You, Free, Green, Hear My Voice, Husavik, Io Si, Loyal Brave, Make It Work, Never Break – Giving Voice, Rain Song, See What, Show Me, Speak Now, Turntables, Wuhan Flu

Best Cinematography

For this category, look to the first, third, and fifth slots for potential surprises. Cherry surprised at the ASC, but Da 5 Bloods is the same cinematographer and if they want to nominate him for a film that will get other nominations, the latter is the choice. After that, the remaining contenders have to hope popular precursor selection “First Cow” doesn’t surprise, but the title that comes in second will be either Mank or a slightly unexpected inclusion of Midnight Sky or Minari. If it’s Mank, then we’ll finish out with Nomadland and two others that could either be surprises or predictable. It’s hard to say where this one will go with so much volatility in the latter portion of the list. Mank or Nomadland missing would be hugely shocking, but Minari could show strength for that film in the final balloting. Tenet doesn’t matter, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 and would suggest a higher-than-expected final tally.

Cherry, 5 Bloods, First Cow, Forty-Year-Old, Mank, Midnight Sky, Minari, News World, Nomadland, Tenet, Chicago 7

Best Film Editing

This category is the hope of many a Best Picture contender because without it, they have no hopes of winning and with it, a nomination is all but assured. Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami, and Promising Young Woman would all be boosted by an inclusion here. Nomadland, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 have the opposite problem. They are expected to be included, but missing out could mean major trouble for them down the line. The order here is almost the same as in Best Picture, so look for the first title to be the biggest influence while most of the non-influential filers will be in the final three, possibly four, slots.

5 Bloods, Father, Ending Things, Invisible Man, Judas, Ma Rainey’s, Mank, Minari, Never Rarely, News World, Nomadland, Miami, Palm Springs, Promising, Metal, Tenet, Time, Chicago 7

Best Production Design

Like Costume Design, this category really isn’t going to impact anything before or after it. Mank is the only Best Picture contender who would need this nomination to be a force in the final race. Ma Rainey’s is all but assured a slot while the first title out of the gate will set the tone for surprise or mudanity in the subsequent selections.

Ammonite, Birds, Emma, First Cow, Ending Things, Jingle Jangle, Judas, Ma Rainey’s, Mank, Midnight, Mulan, News World, Miami, Copperfield, Promising, Rebecca, Tenet, Chicago 7

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Only three Best Picture contenders are on this list and two of them are expected to pull out nominations. One Night in Miami will hope to make the list as it almost single-handedly locks in the film’s Best Picture spot. Ma Rainey’s and Mank are both expected to be on the list even if the others aren’t. The surprise here will be if Hillbilly Elegy misses, which opens up the race for Jingle Jangle and The Little Things. Birds of Prey would be a smashing addition and follows historical patterns while the big question mark is Italian Pinocchio, which has done well with some precursors but might be a bridge too far for the Academy. Then again, they love their foreign language films in this category, so it could well be the last title on the list.

Birds, Emma, Glorias, Hillbilly Elegy, Jingle Jangle, Little Things, Ma Rainey’s, Mank, Miami, Pinocchio

Best Visual Effects

Only two Best Picture contenders made the shortlist. One of them, Soul, has the historical bias against Animated Films (which often make the shortlist, but not the final nomination slate) working to keep it out. Mank, on the other hand, is relying on its overall general appreciation to carry it through. We will know very early on (first two or three slots) if it’s on the final list. Tenet seems like the only film that could lay claim to being assured and it’s destined for either the fourth or fifth slot. Meanwhile, Birds of Prey is the only film ahead of Mank alphabetically that really has any cause for hope here. The One and Only Ivan hopes to surprise like it did at BAFTA, but that will be a middle-list film, so we won’t have much time for surprises. If Tenet is fourth, then we know what the fifth title will be and it would be the first documentary ever nominated in the category.

Bloodshot, Birds, Monsters, Mank, Midnight, Mulan, Ivan, Soul, Tenet, Chechnya

Best Actor

We’re finally to the core categories where prior events could influence the names on this list. Riz Ahmed is expected to come out first, though Oscar winner Ben Affleck could be a left-field surprise. After Ahmed, we have Chadwick Boseman if things are proceeding as expected. With two slots filled, third should be Hopkins and then we have the two spots that might be most open to change. The Father not making earlier headway won’t impact Anthony Hopkins’ chances, but Delroy Lindo would certainly benefit from a stronger Da 5 Bloods presence in the craft categories. The same is true of Gary Oldman. If Mank is running in the low-to-mid single digits by this point, he could be in trouble. Matter of fact, it’s that fourth name that impacts all others. If Lindo or Mikkelsen appears then Oldman might be toast and the real race is for the fifth spot. If the fourth is Oldman, then the big question is whether the late-breaking Tahar Rahim can manage a nomination or if Steven Yeun can. Yeun hopes that Jodie Foster doesn’t appear in Supporting Actress. If she does, Rahim is likely in. Of course, if Rahim is fourth, then Yeun can breathe easily.

Affleck, Ahmed, Baron Cohen, Ben-Adir, Boseman, Hanks, Hopkins, Gourav, Lindo, Mikkelsen, Oldman, Rahim, Yeun

Best Actress

This is probably one of the most solid line-ups of the morning. Even the weakest play, Andra Day, seems assured a nomination. If anyone but Viola Davis is announced first, then all hell will break loose as Amy Adams is the only figure in those first five names that might conceivably survive to take the first spot, on name recognition only. After Davis, we should get the second, third, and fourth slots locked in between Day, Kirby, and McDormand. If Day doesn’t appear, then the surprise will be for who gets the fourth spot. If Adams wasn’t in the first position and Kirby was in the third, then McDormand should easily be fourth and we have one last surprise potential in the fifth slot. Carey Mulligan, due to the vagaries of the strange new nomination process at BAFTA, was left off. She had home team advantage, which was a catastrophic loss for her and the film. Yet, she’s expected to be the fifth name. If she’s fourth, then Day has probably missed out and Zendaya will fill out the list. However, until Mulligan’s name is read, we cannot rest safely as Zendaya seems to be the quiet threat of the category and she would most definitely be last if selected.

Adams, Beharie, Blank, Buckley, Coon, Davis, Day, Flanigan, Kirby, Loren, McDormand, Moss (Invis), Moss (Shirley), Mulligan, Zendaya

Best Animated Feature

If Soul misses a nomination here, the call for reform of the animation branch will reach a fever pitch. However, I wouldn’t expect that. Matter of fact, I would guess that the first title determines whether or not there is a surprise further down the list. The Croods: A New Age should be first, then a drop in the alphabet to “O” for Onward and Over the Moon. If either of those titles is first, then we have some major shocks coming our way. After those two, the final slots should be Soul and Wolfwalkers without any likely issues.

Accidental, Bombay, Calamity, Croods, Demon, Dreambuilders, Earwig, Kill It, Lupin, Mosley, Favorite, Cherry, Nos Ili, On-Gaku, Onward, Over Moon, Red Shoes, Wave, Scoob!, Farmageddon, Soul, Willy, Trolls, Whisker, Willoughbys, Wolfwalkers

Best International Feature

The only surprise that could affect this lineup is Another Round failing to secure a nod as the rest of the list seems fluid. If Mads Mikkelsen shows up in Best Actor, Another Round has nothing to worry about. Matter of fact, both nominations will boost director Thomas Vinterberg’s chance in the penultimate (probably) category announcement. Everything else here is impossible to know with certainty, so just enjoy this last free ride of the morning.

Another, Better, Charlatan, Collective, Comrades, Hope, No Longer, Llorona, Skin, Mole, Kings, Aida, A Sun, Children, Two of Us

Best Directing

This is the biggie. History will be either be made or frustrated. Best Picture absolutely requires this nomination. If it gets in here, it pretty much gets in there…except for Another Round. Since this is done alphabetically by film title, we’ll get our first chance at a surprise at the beginning and then after Minari and Nomadland are announced. The first slot is between Thomas Vinterberg, Spike Lee, Florian Zeller, Kelly Reichardt, Shaka King, George C. Wolfe, David Fincher, and Lee Isaac Chung. The DGA dictated that Fincher and Chung would be first, but any of the others pulling off a surprise is possible as the diretors branch tends to love its off the wall selections…at least before the shift to ten nominees. Since then, they’ve only pulled a shocker once or twice. Everything else has been expected. Chung going first would ensure one potential surprise later in teh list while Fincher might suggest an utter lack of them. After those two, The next expected name (second or third) is Chloé Zhao. Where she places will determine what is potential for after. If she’s second, then Emerald Fennell will make history and Aaron Sorking will be quite happy with Regina King and Darius Marder liking their odds for the final slot. If Zhao is third, then the next name on the list will either be a modest surprise (King) or an anticipated history-making selection (Fennell). If King is fourth and Fennell is fifth, it’s all done. However, Fennell in fourth may be expected, but in third, she would be followed by Marder and Sorkin. If not, the two will duke it out for the final slot.

Another, 5 Bloods, Father, First Cow, Judas, Ma Rainey’s, Mank, Minari, Never Rarely, News World, Nomadland, Miami, Promising, Metal, Chicago 7

Best Picture

Now we reach the final announcement of the day. We will undoubtedly know what to expect by this point, so it will be all over but the post-game analysis and the handwringing. Rather than discuss how things might go, I want to break this down into a brief paragraph on each film and its Best Picture chances plus whether or not earlier selections will improve or injure them.

Before that, though, let’s discuss the number of nominations. This is the first year in a long time where ten nominees seems like a distinct possibility. Every one of these films has a lot of supporters, which means they could all end up with 51% of the necessary ballot slots to secure a nomination. The bonus is that only one of them, Nomadland seems likely to pick up more than 75% of the ballot mentions. The fewer that can get slotted at the top or mentioned on multiple ballots, the more likely we are to hit ten. That said, since the fluctuation between 5 and 10 began, there has only been one instance of eight nominations and all the rest have featured nine, so what we’re looking for now is which of these will be the odd-man out to fall just below the cut off. Thankfully, next year, they are solidifying the slate to ten slots so we no longer have to guess about that.

Now, let’s dig into the final slate of films. Here they are, in the alphabetical order in which they would be announced. All titles are bold and italicized while my ten top predictions are surrounded by asterisks.

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm may have made the final slate of PGA nominees, but it looks like the annual populist choice that never makes it to the Oscars. Still, in a year that wasn’t made for laughing, finding humor might benefit the film’s chances. For it to be guaranteed a slot, it needs nominations in Original Song, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress (Maria Bakalova). It would also be helpful if Sacha Baron Cohen was a double nominee with a citation in Best Actor for this film. That said, Missing most of these won’t impact its Best Picture chances, so we might not have any genuine expectation of it making the list based on what we’ve previously heard.

Da 5 Bloods started out as a major contender, but as newer films have released and other films have solidified their support, it has fallen in estimations to the point where it’s no longer assured a Best Picture nomination when once it was. The only nominations that might forecast a re-solidification of support are nominations in Sound, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Screenplay, Lead Actor, and most tellingly, Best Directing. While individually, none of these nominations would mean much, collectively, alongside a Supporting Actor citation, might mean the winds have changed again.

** The Father ** is the first title alphabetically to have enough firm underlying support to make a race of a Best Picture nomination. That said, it’s one of three or four titles that could easily be left off if the tally of nominees drops below ten. Its nominations for Lead Actor and Supporting Actress won’t affect its potential. Nor will its likely Adapted Screenplay nomination. However, Florian Zeller showing up in Best Directing or the film making the Film Editing list might improve its Best Picture chances.

First Cow is the indie darling that has been utterly forgotten as the second-half of precursor season begins. Critics loved the film and it got numerous nominations throughout the course of the run-up to the guild section, but once those started coming out, its chances plummeted to nothing. I think that if Nomadland hadn’t taken the helm as indie darling, First Cow might have solidified support. Unfortunately, there was only so much love to go around. Surprise nominations for Adapted Screenplay or Directing would certainly improve its chances, though an unexpected showing in Cinematography wouldn’t have any impact.

** Judas and the Black Messiah ** came out very late in the competition. It was one of the last films to open, having skipped a 2020 qualifying run meaning it left the critics races untouched. Yet, it has slowly built during the competition to be a solid competitor. It’s improved performance has actually begun to leech into races it wasn’t originally expected to show up in. Daniel Kaluuya was thought at one point to be the film’s best hope in Supporting Actor, but Film Editing, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress (Dominique Fishback), and Directing have all become part of its potential nomination list. That said, among these citations, only Supporting Actress and Directing won’t be required. The others might well be necessary. It’s one of the three of four films I think have soft enough support that they could sink below the line without enough of it.

** Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom ** has been seen as a contender for longer than most of the films on this list. Even as it debuted and then months went by, it maintained its solid support. The film is all but assured nominations in Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor, and Lead Actress. Director George C. Wolfe has never picked up momentum for his directing work, though. While these all seem likely nominations, missing more than one or two could spell trouble for the film. Yet, picking up nominations in Production Design, Sound, and Directing would certainly lock in its mention. To me, this is still a bubble film as it has a lot of detractors out there and so I put it in the middle three-to-four nominees, making it likely to get a nomination, but not entirely unsurprising if it doesn’t make it through.

** Mank ** had a whirlwind tour of precursor season. Before it was released, everyone though this would finally be the film that brought David FIncher an Oscar and while critics were largely impressed, the film has been stumbling through precursor season suffering successes and wounds in nearly equal measure. It’s gotten so bad that it has slipped into the lower reaches of the middle-tier films. I’m still pretty certain it’s nominated, but I will not guarantee it. That said, I currently have the film predicted for a total of 13 citations. If it drops below 8 or 9, I would be surprised. If it does, then this nomination moves from likely to difficult. Still, with so much support from craft voters, that could keep it afloat just long enough. Right now, the only categories that seem certain for nominations are Production Design and Cinematography with Original Score the next most likely. Beyond those three, the film has had uneven success, but I would still rank its potential in Makeup & Hairstyling and Costume Design as fairly safe bets. Visual Effects, Sound, Film Editing, Supporting Actress (Amanda Seyfried), Actor (Gary Oldman), Adapted Screenplay, and Directing are all shakier. Ultimately, it probably still shows up in each, but missing the latter categories wouldn’t be too terribly shocking.

The Mauritanian is, along with Judas and the Black Messiah, one of the late-breaking major contenders to emerge in the last two months. It also didn’t get much of a qualifying run, showing up to some precursor voters after their voting deadlines. Still, as BAFTA would lead us to believe, it’s been building momentum. The unexceptional reviews are part of what’s making it difficult to declare it a stronger contender. Most of the below-the-line categories won’t be a breeding ground for success, but it has shown some resilience in places like Supporting Actress (Jodie Foster), Lead Actor (Tahar Rahim), and Adapted Screenplay. It would need all three nominations to feel like an assured Best Picture nominee. That’s why it wasn’t surprising it was one of the final BAFTA five as it did get those nominations. Keep an eye on those categories as its strength will surely be evinced there.

** Minari ** is not quite holding to the Parasite model in its movements through Oscar season, but its becoming the pleasing little gem that the Academy tends to love even if they don’t give them too many honors. The film has done strongly through precursor season and after recent group announcements, it seems to be even safer. The only craft categories where it seems likely to show up are Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score. Original Song is also possible, but not necessary. Where it becomes a power player is the bigger categories. If it makes the list in all of Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, and Directing, then its Best Picture potential is solid. If it misses the two acting categories, that doesn’t mean its toast. It will stlil show up, but if it get blanked other places, that could spell trouble. It doesn’t seem possible, so this film is likely in the upper third of the potential nomination slate.

Never Rarely Sometimes Always did respectfully throughout precursor season, but never quite moved up into the major leagues. The film has earned several nominations across the board including Original Screenplay, its best Oscar prospect, Supporting Actress, Actress, and Directing, but this is definitely one of the weaker contenders and remains in my list out of respect more than anything else.

News of the World was originally thought to be a major potential nominee for this year’s Oscars thanks to the involvement of star Tom Hanks and director Paul Greengrass who’ve both made Oscar inroads, one clearly more often than the other. Then, sa the critics began giving out their nominations and awards, it began to falter with only Supporting Actress Helena Zengel managing to keep up momentum. As the latter awards have solidified its support, this remains in the grouping that’s fighting out for the last three or four slots of Best Picture. To get that nomination, I think it needs to spread out beyond Zengel in a more impressive pattern. Directing would be helpful, but not necessary and Hanks would be icing on the cake in Best Actor, but is probably its least likely nomination. Adapted Screenplay is looking like a distinct possibility as are Original Score, Cinematography, and Production Design. It’s shakier in Sound and Film Editing, but still possible. If it manages every single one of these nominations, then its in like Flynn. If it only picks up the expected ones, its prospects are still limited, but not inconsequential.

** Nomadland **, in any other year, would have been in the same boat that First Cow now is. However, with the pandemic limiting contenders, it has not only managed to benefit from the dearth of even indie competitors, but it’s thrived. It’s one of the most honored titles of the year and even in categories it wasn’t thought to be assured nominations, better yet wins, it’s been winning. So, this is the only film I feel is 100% guaranteed a slot. The film is contending for nominations in Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score (one of its weakest potential category placements), Adapted Screenplay, Actress, and Directing. It’s expected to pull off nominations in all but Score and potentially Film Editing, but it needs that citation to guarantee a win. Meanwhile, it will be doing well if David Strathairn comes out of nowhere for a Supporting Actor citation, and Sound is strangely in the running for the film. Other than that, it doesn’t have a lot of hope, but really this is all it needs.

** One Night in Miami ** wasn’t a blip on the radar until its release and then it burst onto the scene with quite a force. Below the line, it’s been entering the conversation in places like Sound, Makeup & Hairstyling, Costume Design, and Production Design with Cinematography and Film Editing as further possibilities. It’s certain to be nominated in Original Song (“Speak Now”), Supporting Actor (Leslie Odom Jr.), and Adapted screenplay and has been stomping around the Directing race. If it picks up every single one of those nominations, a Best Picture spot is assured. This film fits right at the top of the middle third of contenders.

** Promising Young Woman ** also benefited from the pandemic, but in a different way. It was originally slate for a spring release, but delayed until the fall where it burst forth with critical acclaim and became a dominant force in the precursors. Matter of fact, against twice-honored Frances McDormand, Mulligan became the Best Actress frontrunner. Its support was thought to be primarily in Actress and Original Screenplay, but has begun branching out thanks to its precursor performance. Emerald Fennell is now a strong contender to join Chloé Zhao in the Directing race where they will become the first two women nominated in the same year. Of course, Fennell could miss out, but considering she managed a DGA nomination even when the “inferior” debut feature category was available, so I feel fairly confident that Fennell will be there and if it ends up behind four men and a woman, there might be a bit of an outrage over it. That said, beyond these four top categories, Film Editing, Cinematography (minorly), Production Design, Costume Design, and even Sound (minorly) are all potentially illuminating for the film. If Bo Burnham managed to eke out a Supporting Actor nomination, then the film movers into guaranteed position for a nomination and might become a contender for winning Best Picture. The film still needs that Film Editing slot along with the others. This film has gotten to a point where I put its Best Picture field nomination in second place for most likely.

Soul might have been a Best Picture nominee if there weren’t so many contenders right now. Animated Features, in spite of having their own category, have managed a couple of Best Picture mentions since the expansion in nominations. Not many have made it, but Soul had enough support that it very well could have. Were the race not so choked with other live action players. Its potential in Visual Effects is minimal, but its almost guaranteed nominations for Original Score and Animated Feature and very likely will be a nominee for Sound. It’s got an outside chance at Original Screenplay, but that category is also stacked. Is this going to be enough for it to make Best Picture? Not likely, but don’t count it out until the nominees are revealed.

** Sound of Metal ** is another film that might have been forgotten in another year, but it has the benefit of feeling like a spiritual kin to surprise quintuple Oscar nominee Whiplash, which made the Best Picture slate in a similar surprising emergence into the race. Matter of fact, the categories Sound of Metal has been contending in match Whiplash‘s almost exactly. Film Editing, Sound (then Mixing), Adapted Screenplay, Best Picture, and Best Actor (Riz Ahmed, with Whiplash‘s acting in supporting actor for J.K. Simmons). While it’s possible the film will pull off the same trifecta of wins that Whiplash had, they aren’t guaranteed. Sound of Metal also seems to be making inroads in both Original Song and Directing, which could mean a stronger showing tomorrow morning. That said, I expect these five might well be it for the film with Sound the only one I expect it to win. A slight decrease in performance, but an interesting analogy nonetheless.

** The Trial of the Chicago 7 ** is the final film on the list and is one of the last upper tier contenders in the race. It’s almost guaranteed a nomination before we talk about all the categories it could show up in. The categories we expect to hear announced for the film on Oscar Morning are Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing. It’s also likely to show up in Directing, Cinematography, Production Design, and Sound. It could also pull out nominations for Original Score and Costume Design, but those are far outside likelihood. That said, Once we hit this title, we’ll know just how many nominees there are this year, whether it’s eight, nine, or ten. Hopefully, it’s the latter as it would be a shame for so many significant films to miss out on a nomination.

And that’s everything for this year. I feel a bit like I rushed through some of these and I apologize if they don’t make 100% sense. However, this is where things stand. To read my regular comments on each category, follow the link above to our contributors’ final predictions.