FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

It’s hard to know precisely how the Academy will handle this year’s announcements. We have the list of categories that will be announced in which grouping, we have where they will be announcing the nominations, and we have who will be announcing. Oscar nominee Kumail Nanjiani will be joined by television personality Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish). She’s an odd choice as she hasn’t been in a big screen movie since 2009 and even then she only has a smattering of credits back to 1996. She’s an ABC actress, so that might explain it.

We don’t know if there will be taped introductions then a voice-over reading of the nominees. We don’t know whether there will be directors announcing the first batch. We don’t know what order the nominees will be announced in. Suffice it to say, the traditions of almost three decades of morning announcements are gone forever and won’t likely be back.

The category breakdown will be as such: Group 1 is Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Group 2 is Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Animated Feature Film, Cinematography, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Foreign Language Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Picture, Visual Effects, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, and Original Song.

Other than Best Picture being presented last, it’s noteworthy that two of the most prominent categories that were usually announced in the latter half are getting shunted to the early half: Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress. Other than that, they have not announced a category announcement order, so the information below will be ordered as I see fit, largely tackling categories that won’t impact others first, then digging into the other categories.

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:20am PST / 7:20am CST / 8:20am EST / 1:20pm GMT / 9:20pm China for Group 1 and 5:30:30am PST / 7:30:30am CST / 8:30:30am EST / 1:30:30pm GMT / 9:30:30pm China for Group 2.

Every year, I put together an article that goes through the order of announcement and gives you not only an idea of what to expect, but how it might affect later announcements or might have been impacted by earlier ones. The above PDF features all of the films and individuals I’ve listed as Hopefuls on my site so that you can print it out and follow along as the announcements are made (at least as best you can).

With my personal opinions about the race highlighted in today’s other final nominations predictions post, I’m going to try and keep things brief. However, we all know how that usually turns out.

Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space. Traditionally, the nominations had been announced in alphabetical order by film name in all except the acting categories, which will be ordered by last name.

Group 1

Best Live Action Short Film

This category is often hard to predict, so I’ll let the order speak for itself.

Age of Sail, Animal Behavior, Bao, Bilby, Bird Karma, Late Afternoon, Lost & Found, One Small Step, Pepe le Morse, Weekends

Best Animated Short Film

This category is often hard to predict, so I’ll let the order speak for itself.

Caroline, Chuchotage, Detainment, Fauve, Icare, Marguerite, May Day, Mother, Skin, Wale

Best Sound Mixing

We start off knowing whether Black Panther can become a juggernaut and round things off knowing if Roma will be. We start with one of the two B names most likely with Avengers: Infinity War possibly coming first, but that would likely be at the expense of Black Panther. After Bohemian Rhapsody, which will be second or third, we get First Man and anything between that and A Quiet Place would be a small surprise, though this is where Mary Poppins Returns could appear. After Quiet Place, we have a number of potential surprises in between that could ultimate end with Roma or Roma followed by A Star Is Born.

Avengers, Black Panther, Bohemian, First Man, Incredibles, Mary Poppins, Quiet Place, Ralph/Internet, Ready Player, Solo, Spider-Man, Star Is Born

Best Sound Editing

Either of the sound awards could go first and this one might be more likely than mixing, but most casual viewers won’t care. Except that if this goes first, we might know in advance if Roma or Black Panther will show up in mixing. First on the list will be one or both of the superhero movies, Avengers or Black Panther. Neither would surprise and both would be expected. After those, we have couple of surprise candidates with Bohmian Rhapsody and Favourite, though neither is particular well known for its sound effects, so would be surprising selections. Most likely the third film will be First Man and then we have a couple of more surprise potentials in between it and A Quite Place. If the surprise hasn’t happened yet and Quiet Place is fourth, it could be one of a number of films in the fifth spot, including Solo or Roma, which could foreshadow a major run at Best Picture for Alfonso Cuaron’s film.

Avengers, Black Panther, Bohemian, Favourite, First Man, Incredibles, Mission: Impossible, Quiet Place, Ralph/Internet, Ready Player, Roma, Solo

Best Costume Design

Fancy costumes are more common than traditioanl garb, but the first film to lead off the list will either indicate the strength of the film’s chances higher up (BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, or Crazy Rich Asians) or might just be a one-off. Black Panther is the only one of those that needs this award to remain viable. It’s one of only a handful of categories thought to be sure things, but that isn’t necessarily a guarantee. After that, The Favourite will be one of the early selections followed by the pair of Marys. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. If we’re at four nominees, then either Nutcracker or Wrinkle in Time caries on the CDG love. It’s also possible neither of them show up with a major surprise earlier in the list.

BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian, Colette, Crazy Rich, Fantastic Beasts, Favourite, Mary Poppins, Mary Queen, Nutcracker, Wrinkle in Time

Best Film Editing

The category most aligned with Best Picture outside of Best Directing. Look for major Oscar contenders here and if a film shows up here, with a few exceptions (Mission: Impossible, Quiet Place, and Widows), it means a Best Picture citation is evident. Black Panther will need this to remain a threat in Best Picture while BlacKkKlansman could also translate a nomination here into the big prize. Bohemian Rhapsody or Crazy Rich Asians coming first or second would be a big surprise, but would indicate they may have overcome odds for Best Picture nominations. The Favourite should be a contender here and may well show up, but the film doesn’t have a lot of flashy editing, which might hurt it. First Man will come in second or third on the list and will be followed by Roma and A Star Is Born if third, or those two plus Green Book the strongest contender if First Man is second. Of course, anything could happen, so this will be one of the more interesting categories to watch. Of course, if First Man is second and it jumps directly to Roma, Vice will be in the final spot.

Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian, Crazy Rich, Favourite, First Man, Green Book, Beale Street, Mission: Impossible, Quiet Place, Roma, Star is Born, Vice, Widows

Best Original Score

This is another category where the Best Picture influence might show. Films like Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Crazy Rich Asians, First Man, If Beale street Could Talk, and Vice could have their Best Picture chances develop into a nomination here, though Crazy Rich Asians is the least likely to appear and, if it does, shows there’s a lot more appreciation for it than expected. Black Panther or First Man should be first-and-second, though a couple of surprises could appear before or between them. After that, If Beale Street Could Talk and Isle of Dogs will come after First Man and if there’s one slot left, Mary Poppins Returns or A Quiet Place could take the final spot with the latter benefiting from the dialogue-light obviousness of the score.

Annihilation, Avengers, Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Crazy Rich, Death of Stalin, Fantastic Beasts, First Man, Beale Street, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins, Quiet Place, Ready Player, Vice

Best Supporting Actor

Ultimately, the whole race has boiled down to eight contenders, though it’s likely just six of them are competing for the five slots. Mahershala Ali and Adam Driver seem safe. Timothée Chalamet as well. Richard E. Grant would also seem safe, but signs are showing that his win is no longer forecast. The big question is whether Sam Elliott can ride the wave of love for his film to a nomination or if Sam Rockwell will do the same for his. The first three names should be Ali, Chalamet, and Driver. If Grant is fourth, then Rockwell is fifth. If Elliott is fourth, then either Grant is fifth or Grant is the surprise exclusion over prior winner Rockwell. Of course, Rockwell could also miss out if Michael B. Jordan makes the list, but that will be the last person read before we know, which won’t give us much of a heads-up.

Ali, Chalamet, Crowe, Driver, Elliott, H. Grant, R. Grant, Jordan, Rockwell

Best Supporting Actress

This is another category that has been whittled down to a small number of contenders. Ostensibly, it will be Amy Adams, Claire Foy, Regina King, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz. Those are likely the safest bets of the day. That being said, Regina King has failed to secure nominations from several groups that should have been favorable to her and while neither Nicole Kidman or Margot Robbie have strong films to boost their nomination chances, Robbie did get in at BAFTA over King, so she could easily do it. We will know after the third name’s announced who it is as it will either be Kidman, King, or Robbie as the first two are Adams and Foy and the last two are Stone and Weisz.

Adams, Foy, Kidman, King, Robbie, Stone, Weisz

Group 2

Best Documentary Feature

This is a tough category. While there are seven of these titles that have gotten a lot of attention so far this precursor season, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, and Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seem like safe bets. The big question is what will fill the gap, Hale County, Minding the Gap, On Her Shoulders, RBG, or Shirkers. We might have our answer early if Free Solo leads off the list. That eliminates five films instantly, though not necessarily the ones that are competing heavily. If it isn’t first, then prepare for a rocky morning of surprises. After Free Solo, it should be either Hale County or Minding the Gap. After that, the big question is which of On Her Shoulders, RBG or Shirkers comes in third with Three Identical and Neighbor finishing out th elist.

Charm, Communion, Crime + Punishment, Dark Money, Distant Barking, Free Solo, Hale County, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers, On Her Shoulders, RBG, Shirkers, Silence of Others, Three Identical, Won’t You Be

Best Documentary Short Subject

This category is often hard to predict, so I’ll let the order speak for itself.

Black Sheep, Los Comandos, End Game, Lifeboat, My Dead Dad, Night at the Garden, Period, 63 Boycott, Women/Gulag, Zion

Best Original Song

How studded will the Oscar performances be? Likely pretty famous as most of the potential nominees this year will bring an audience with them. That said, “All the Star,” “Girl at the Movies,” “I’ll Fight,” the two songs from Mary Poppins Returns, and “Shallow” are all more likely than the others, but nothing is in stone. “Stars” should be first and if it isn’t everything will be topsy-turvy. “Girl at the Movies” and “I’ll Fight” should come in second and third followed by the song from A Star Is Born surrounded by Mary Poppins tunes. Anything could come in between, so watch out for surprises.

All the Stars, Big Unknown, Girl/Movies, I’ll Fight, Keep Reachin, OYAHYTT, Slaughter Race, Lost Things Go, Revelation, Shallow, Suspirium, Treasure, Light Fantastic, We Won’t Move, Cowboy/Spurs

Best Cinematography

Will Alfonso Cuaron become the first director to lens a Best Cinematography nominee? We should know, but not until the very end. The first title tells us partly where the Oscar race is with Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman potentially the first announced, but ultimately Cold War seems most likely. This should be followed by The Favourite and First Man. If either is listed in second place, things should go almost as planeed for Roma and A Star Is Born, which should finish out the list. The big question is whether If Beale Street Could Talk can fit itself into third, which would require a miss by Cold War, Favourite, or First Man, which doesn’t seem likely. Of course, if Beale Street is fourth, then fifth is probably A Star Is Born shutting out Roma, but that also seems unlikely leaving the possibility of A Star Is Born being left off the list, which would indicate the film is struggling with voters.

Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Cold War, Favourite, First Man, Beale Street, Mary Poppins, Roma, Star Is Born

Best Production Design

One of the categories whose Best Picture influence is non-existent and where Best Picture nominees occasionally show up, but not with enough regularity to make much of it. Black Panther has long been thought a contender here, but it’s a weak one with Annihilation possibly beating it onto the list first. Bohemian Rhapsody or Crazy Rich Asians showing up would indicate one of those films is probably a Best Picture nominee. Fantastic Beasts might have had negative reviews, but the series won this category two years ago, so it’s a strong contender. The Favourite is probably titularly interested in this category and will probably show up third. If it’s second, there is a surprise or two waiting. If it’s fourth, then Mary Poppins Returns might be in trouble. Ultimately, the category will fill out with First Man and then Mary Poppins Returns.

Annihilation, Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, Bohemian, Colette, Crazy Rich, Fantastic Beasts, Favourite, First Man, House/Clock/Walls, Mary Poppins, Mary Queen, Nutcracker, Ready Player, Roma, Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

There are only three titles, so the surprise should be over quickly if there is one. We could have three films nominated starting with the letter “B” or, more likely, We’ll have hard and soft consonant sounds all nominated, namely Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, and Vice. Since Vice is sure to fill out the last slot on the list, the first two are where the surprises will be. Bohemian missing would be most surprising and Black Panther making it in would be second. The rest all seem like commonplace nominees for this category, so beyond those, there aren’t a lot of potential surprises.

Black Panther, Bohemian, Border, Mary Queen, Stan & Ollie, Suspiria, Vice

Best Visual Effects

We won’t have a lot of information about Best Picture or other categories leading into this category or out of it. Only First Man and Black Panther have any claim to be running at a Best Picture nomination and both are probable nominees, with the latter being on the shakiest ground in spite of its BAFTA nomination. Avengers is most famous for its effects this year, so failing to get nominated will be a shock. Mary Poppins Return might have once seemed like a solid contender, but it’s on the edge now and Ready Player One and Solo are good potential finishers for the category. Either, or Black Panther, could be dropped for Mary or even Welcome to Marwen.

Ant-Man, Avengers, Black Panther, Christopher Robin, First Man, Jurassic World, Mary Poppins, Ready Player, Solo, Marwen

Best Actor

There are three nominees whose absences would be absolutely shocking: Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, and Rami Malek. There’s a fourth that is on solid ground, but not exactly guaranteed: Viggo Mortensen. The rest are all on tap for a nomination with Robert Reford and Clint Eastwood far enough at the outskirts of the race to almost be non-entities. Willem Dafoe’s fast fade pretty much means he won’t be third after Bale and Cooper. If we get anyone other than Malek in third, it would be Ethan Hawke, who has also taken a hit without a nod from BAFTA. If Malek is third, Mortensen should be fourth and John David Washington will come in fifth. This is the strongest scenario, but if Malek is fourth, Washington is probably out.

Bale, Cooper, Dafoe, Eastwood, Gosling, Hawke, Malek, Mortensen, Redford, Washington

Best Actress

All the major shocks should come with the first or second nominee announced. Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, and Melissa McCarthy are strong contenders to be the final three nominees, but only if Glenn Close is first and Toni Collette is second. Horror and the Academy don’t get along well often putting Collette on weak footing. If Close is first and Colman is second, then Viola Davis is very likely third. The big question is if Close is first or second. If she isn’t the first name read, Yalitza Aparicio is probably first. If Close is second, then Collette is definitely out with Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy finishing things off. If Lady Gaga is third, then a big surprise is coming into the fourth or fifth slot with McCarthy taking either of the others.

Aparicio, Blunt, Close, Collette, Colman, Davis, Fisher, Lady Gaga, Hall, Kidman, McCarthy, Pike

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will the Academy finally honor a comic book movie? We’ll know first thing when this category’s announced as BlacKkKlansman will be first if Black Panther is ignored or second if it isn’t. Can You Ever Forgive Me? should be second or third with If Beale Street Could Talk and A Star Is Born rounding out the category. That means where Can You Ever Forgive? is announced is crucial. If it’s second, then The Death of Stalin or, less likely, First Man is third. If Beale Street is third, then Widows should round out the list.

Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever, Death/Stalin, First Man, Beale Street, Star Is Born, Widows

Best Original Screenplay

Will The Favourite be first or will Eighth Grade hold on for a nomination. Following Favourite are likely to be First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, and Vice. If there’s a surprise, it’s either first (Eighth Grade), after Favourite (First Reformed being left off) or after Green Book where A Quiet Place could show up if Green Book is the second announced title.

Blindspotting, Eighth Grade, Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Quiet Place, Roma, Vice

Best Animated Feature

You can probably toss almost every potential nominee except Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. The surprise will either be at the top of the list if Grinch is announced first. At that point, second and third are probably locked to Incredibles and Isle of Dogs with the fourth slot being the shock. Will it be Mirai or Ralph Breaks the Internet that’s left off. Or will we have another Lego Movie incident with Spider-Man being horrendously excluded. Of course, if Incredibles 2 is first, there aren’t a lot of paths to shock unless something like Smallfoot makes it in over one of the others.

Ana/Bruno, Grinch, Early Man, Fireworks, Nice Day, Transylvania, Incredibles, Isle of Dogs, Laws/Universe, Liz/Blue Bird, Lu/Wall, Maquia, MFKX, Mirai, Night Is Short, Happiness Rd, Ralph/Internet, Ruben Brandt, Sgt. Stubby, Sherlock, Smallfoot, Spider-Man, Tell Tales, Teen Titans, Tito

Best Foreign Language Film

The first title read will tell us how many surprises to expect. Capernaum first means that the third title is either The Guilty or Never Look Away. If both are selected, Shoplifters seems the logical film to miss. If Birds of Passage or Burning are first, or even first and second, something shocking is happening and Capernaum and Shoplifters are both in trouble.

Ayka, Birds/Passage, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Guilty, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

Best Directing

How do you tell who the Best Picture frontrunners are? Look at the Best Directing award. Traditionally, this film is announced alphabetically by film, which means we should know how strong either Black Panther or BlacKkKlansman are going to do by whether each or both lead off the list. If neither are first, it could be that Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite has surprised and made a run for it, or Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk has. Assuming BlacKkKlansman is first, the surprise will be what comes second. If it’s The Favourite, then either Green Book or Vice will miss the list. If Beale Street is second or third, then we already know what’s missing with announcing third pushing Vice off the list. Roma and A Star Is Born are the only two titles that won’t likely be left off, so all of our surprises will happen before those two are announced. If Roma is third, then Vice made it in. If it’s fourth, then Adam McKay is out.

Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever, Eighth Grade, Favourite, First Man, First Reformed, Green Book, Beale Street, Roma, Star Is Born, Vice

Best Picture

And now we’re down to the end. Anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees can be announced. And we may know precisely how many we have when we hit The Favourite. We will either have four prior nominees or fewer with Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians all potential nominees. If that’s the case, it’s likely we fill out the slate with ten nominees. If half of those don’t make it, fewer is likely.

So, what does Black Panther tell us if it leads off? It tells us that we’ve got a lot of good films potentially left off. If it doesn’t get announced first, there will be a huge cry from the public about it all. By this point, we’ll know whether it’s going to be nominated if it has picked up all of Supporting Actor, Original Song, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and the sound categories, then it would be a foregone conclusion. If it picks up fewer than half of those, its chances are significantly diminished.

BlacKkKlansman needs Directing, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screneplay, and Film Editing, to genuinely feel like a guarantee here. It could well pick up all of those and the only one of them that assures a Best Picture citation is Directing. That said, we will know within the first two titles if the film has made it through or not, so Spike Lee can rest easy pretty early.

After its performance at the Golden Globe and with the British Academy, Bohemian Rhapsody is in a solid position to be among this year’s Best Picture nominees. If it shows up in none of the below-the-line categories, it might struggle, but Best Actor and Sound Mixing are really its only major guarantees. Nominations in screenwriting, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, and Sound Editing would also point towards a nomination, but fewer than half of those might spell trouble.

Running a distant campaign in spite of being one of the most acclaimed films of the year, Can You Ever Forgive Me? is mostly an also-ran right now, but it could come up as one of the first four nominations, which would be a shock, but a welcome one. Best Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay are pretty much assured. If the film shows up anywhere else, it could bolster its chances, though only a total of six or more nods would really suggest any kind of broad-ranging support for the film.

In their effort to diversify their members, the Academy has opened up an opportunity for one of the year’s most successful films and it has an all-Asian/Asian-descent cast to boot. Crazy Rich Asians has been running behind the likes of Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Roma during Oscar season as a representative of diversity within the Academy. That said, the film’s major success and no films sharing similar support demographics, it could become a surprise Best Picture nominee, but it would do so likely without a single other nomination. If it does pick up surprise nods in Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, or Costume Design, then perhaps it’s a threat. If it doesn’t show up anywhere, Best Picture is probably out of the question.

Eighth Grade was one of the two indie films that could this year, alongside First Reformed. While the film has earned plenty of acclaim, it has been on the fringe of the Best Picture race all season and isn’t very likely to show up for a nomination in this competition. That said, if Elsie Fisher shows up in Best Actress and the film picks up the not-quite-expected Original Screenplay nomination, then maybe the support is strong enough to push it into this category.

The Favourite is almost assured a slot and since it’s one of the few films that could earn double-digit nominations, it should do quite well at the top of the ballot. If the film misses out on too many below-the-line categories or manages to miss any or all of its three leading women, then its chances are in trouble, but no one bets that will happen at this juncture.

When it released to critical acclaim earlier this year, First Man was thought to be the film that would finally earn Damien Chazelle the Best Picture Oscar he came close to with La La Land. Then the film flopped at the box office due to a whisper campaign about its lack of overt patriotism. That seemed to manifest itself in the year-end awards as well as First Man struggled in the early nominations and wins. However, it’s rebuilt its chances as the year finished out and remains a solid contender for a Best Picture slot. If it collapses below the line, it might be in danger, but it’s in a stronger position now than it was two months ago.

The high profile misses at BAFTA and other guild awards have put First Reformed into a precarious position. It was once thought to be a solid contender in several categories, but now seems to be heading towards a complete blank. Of course, the Academy could easily rescue the film and nominations for Ethan Hawke and the film’s screenplay would be required to keep its Best Picture nominations alive. However, either missing would doom it and there’s not much that can guarantee it at this juncture.

Now that we know that Green Book won the Producers Guild of America award for Best Picture, this feel good movie about race relations appears hear to stay. It’s slotted for several Oscar nominations, any of which missing might spell trouble. That said, I cannot see where the film has been injured enough not to make a showing at the Oscars, though its nomination count might not be as big as it needs to be.

Barry Jenkins’ follow up to his Best Picture-winning Moonlight earned terrific reviews and has been playing well throughout Precursor season. Then the guilds started stepping in. First Regina King, the most honored individual this awards season so far, missed out at SAG, then the film was almost completely blanked at BAFTA. The guilds haven’t been favorable to the film and it is showing signs of a near-shut-out. While it could make big gains where others weren’t recognizing it and that might save its Best Picture prospects. Right now, it would be a bit shocking if Beale Street didn’t barely miss the list.

If you want to discuss major collapses, Mary Poppins Returns, once thought to be a major player this season, was released to dismal reviews and has been virtually ignored this precursor season. Although its picked up notable creative nominations, the film’s bad reviews, combined with the stiff competition for Best Picture means that it’s likely at the bottom of the contenders list, if not near it.

A Quiet Place earned strong reviews and seemed to be filling in the Get Out slot at this year’s Oscars. Yet, the film has only performed modestly through precursor season and there have been few indications that the film has made up any lost ground. Right now, it would be a surprise nominee, but stranger things have happened.

The one certainty of the Best Picture race is Roma, the most honored film of the year and the first foreign language film that could have a genuine shot at winning Best Picture. It has several categories where it’s bubbling under that would be a bit surprising (Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing) and if it picks up any or all of them, it could hit double-digits. It won’t be the last nominee announced, but it will be among them.

The last title could actually be A Star Is Born. There are only two films that come after it that could conceivably claim the crown. If it’s the seventh title, it will probably be followed by another film. Look to its performance down ballot to know just how much support the film has. If it misses any of the categories its on the cusp of (Sound Mixing, Film Editing, Cinematography, Supporting Actor), its chances might be muted, but a nominations is likely assured.

Vice could well be the final film on the list. If A Star Is Born is tenth, obviously, this one will miss. However, it’s sure to make the list. The big questions are below Best Picture. As in will the film earn nominations in any category other than Best Actor? If it doesn’t, then the film is out. If it does well enough elsewhere, its slot is fairly solid.

The last film that could finish out the list is Widows, an acclaimed title that managed to collapse as its box office did, failing to make many in-roads to the year-end awards and picking up only a smattering of them. Viola Davis getting into Best Actress could be a good sign, as could Elizabeth Debicki in Supporting Actress. Other than that, Adpapted Screenplay and Film Editing are its only other potential nominations and if it misses all of these, Best Picture is definitely out of the question. If it lands all of them, it’s probably still not getting nominated, but it could.

And that’s everything for this year. I feel a bit like I rushed through some of these and I apologize if they don’t make 100% sense. However, this is where things stand. To read my regular comments on each category, follow the link above to our contributors’ final predictions.