FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

After two years of a new format of announcing the nominations, the Academy has mixed things up again with an audience-free streaming announcement starting at 5:18am Pacific on Tuesday, January 24. Academy president Cheryl Boone-Isaacs will be joined by Oscar winners Jennifer Hudson, Brie Larson, and Emmanual Lubezki, and nominees Jason Reitman and Ken Watanabe.

The reason for this decision could be due to the furor that followed last year’s nominations leading to the knee-jerk change to membership rules as a response to the #OscarsSoWhite brouhaha. If something bad happens this year, they don’t have to talk to the press immediately afterwards and will instead be able to craft responses through their publicity departments.

What it also means is that those wonderful gasps and brief bouts of applause that used to accompany the nominations, will be gone. You’ll have to supply your own gasps and applause. Livestream will be carried out on YouTube and I’ve got an embed of the announcement linked just below here.

With this new presentation format, it’s impossible to know exactly what order the nominations will be announced in. This makes it incredibly difficult to give you the best Oscar Morning article I can. I will do my best.

Every year, I put together an article that goes through the order of announcement and gives you not only an idea of what to expect, but how it might affect later announcements or have been affected by earlier ones. The attached PDF features all of the films I’ve labeled as Hopefuls so that you can print it out and follow along as the announcements are made 9at least as best you can).

With my personal opinions about the race highlighted in today’s other final nominations predictions post, I’m going to try and keep things brief. However, we all know how that usually turns out.

Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. I’m going to start with categories that have zero impact on the other races (short films, documentary, and foreign language film), then get all the categories that never typically got announced at these things. I’ll follow that up with the traditional order of the remaining categories that existed before the Academy’s experiments of the two prior years.

There’s the possibility that the livestream will be broken into two sections, like it has been the past two years, with more “important” categories being announced during a second, morning shows-targeted segment. However, we’re all at a loss for how it will really go, so there’s no telling.

At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space.

Zero-Impact Categories

Best Live Action Short Film

This is one of the four categories whose nominations have no impact on other categories. It was not easy to find information on all of the titles, but based on what I was able to find, I made the selections in this. Here is the list of nominees in alphabetical order with my choices highlighted.

Bon Voyage, Ennemis Intérieurs, Graffiti, Le Femme et le TGV, Nocturne in Black, The Rifle…, Silent Nights, Sing, Timecode, The Way of Tea

Best Animated Short Film

The same thing I said about Live-Action Short Film applies to this category.

Blind Vaysha, Borrowed Time, Happy End, The Head Vanishes, Inner Workings, Once upon a Line, Pear Cider and Cigarettes, Pearl, Piper, Sous Tes Doigts

Best Documentary Short Subject

The third short film category likewise is difficult to predict without having information about all of the eligible contenders. Few have likely seen them all, but based on their descriptions, these are the ones I feel will be nominated.

Brillo Box (3¢ Off), Close Ties, Extremis, 4.1 Miles, Frame 394, The Mute’s House, Joe’s Violin, The Other Side of Home, Watani: My Homeland, The White Helmets

Best Documentary Feature

There is only one film that is almost pre-ordained as a nominee: O.J.: Made in America. Where it falls in the nominations announcement will tell us a lot. The later it falls, the less likely some of the bigger contenders might get left off. I have alphabetized 13th under “T” rather than “13” as the Academy has typically used that as its alphabetical model. However, I cannot be absolutely certain.

Cameraperson, Command and Control, The Eagle Huntress, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hooligan Sparrow, I Am Not Your Negro, The Ivory Game, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Tower, Weiner, The Witness, Zero Days

Non-Traditional Announcement Categories

Best Original Song

How big La La Land‘s nomination count goes depends entirely on this category. Since no film may have more than two nominations, we will know within the first three announcements whether both of the expected ones, “Audition” and “City of Stars” are selected. They should be referenced first and third with “Can’t Stop the Feeling” in between. After that, there are only two more slot, but a large array of possibilities. I suspect we’ll jump directly to the Moana tuner “How Far I’ll Go,” but if another title is chosen first, then Moana‘s will likely be last. I suspect that “Runnin” may have surged with the popularity of its film in the waning days of the race and will possibly be the third film. Keep your eye on the first four slots as that’s where you’ll know if a potential surprise is coming.

Audition, Can’t Stop the Feeling, City of Stars, Drive It Like You Stole It, Faith, Gold, I’m Still Here, How Far I’ll Go, Never Give Up, Runnin, The Rules Don’t Apply, We Know The Way

Best Original Score

The strength of Jackie may be determined here. While many believe it will be a nominee, it’s possible that it could get ignored, and if it is, don’t expect a lot of other nominations for the film. However, it must pick up here to be considered almost anywhere else, including Best Picture. I suspect that will be the first title announced followed by the likely winner La La Land and then late surging Lion followed by possibly Moonlight, and Nocturnal Animals. If you get four titles before Moonlight, it will be the final one. However, it’s possible that something else sneaks in like Fantastic Beasts, which would likely be the first announced, or Moana picking up a slot.

Allied, BFG, Fantastic, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High, Hidden, Jackie, Jungle Book, Kubo, La La Land, Lion, Magnificent, Manchester, Moana, Monster Calls, Moonlight, Nocturnal, Po, Rogue One, Zootopia

Best Visual Effects

If the first title announced isn’t Arrival, then the film is in for a bumpy day. It’s expected to be a nominee and will be first announced. Next should be Doctor Strange and then Fantastic Beasts, but if any of those three misses and The Jungle Book is in third, Kubo and the Two Strings will have prevailed where many other animated films have failed. If Jungle Book is fourth, then Rogue One is likely fifth.

Arrival, BFG, Captain America, Deepwater, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts, Jungle Book, Kubo, Passengers, Rogue One

Best Sound Editing

The Motion Picture Sound Editors guild hasn’t announced nominations yet, which makes it difficult to know how they’ll see this race. You can generally take the Sound Mixing category, pull five and get what remains. Still, knowing how this turns out won’t mean a lot. Arrival should be first. The second title on the list should tell you who the remaining films are. If it’s Doctor Strange, then Hacksaw Ridge, Rogue One, and Sully seem solid bets. However, if Hacksaw is second, look for The Jungle Book to make an appearance. It may still show up, and in third place, it would still leave room for Rogue One and Sully, but Strange had to have made way for it. If Jungle Book is fourth on the list, drop Sully.

Arrival, BFG, Billy Lynn, Birth of a Nation, Captain America, Deadpool, Deepwater, Doctor Strange, Fantastic, Hacksaw, Jungle Book, Passengers, Patriots Day, Rogue One, Star Trek, Sully

Best Sound Mixing

One title is pretty much assured an appearance and that’s La La Land. The remaining titles will probably be a mix of Best Picture contenders (Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge), and Disney blockbusters (Doctor Strange and Rogue One). Sully and Jungle Book are distinct possibilities and I suspect Arrival or Doctor Strange will be the ones making way for it, so the first title announced will likely tell you how the rest of the category goes.

Arrival, Billy Lynn, Captain America, Deadpool, Deepwater, Doctor Strange, Fantastic, Hacksaw, Jungle Book, La La Land, Lion, Patriots Day, Rogue One, Sully

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

There are only seven options here. Some believe Deadpool will ride a wave of support to take the first announced slot on this list, but its use of makeup is limited and others on the list are much more likely. Florence Foster Jenkins has been surging, so it could be first or second on the list. If it’s second, then the third is A Man Called Ove, which seems to be one of two titles everyone is assured will get nominated thanks to its copious old age makeup. Star Trek is also a strong contender and that means Ove is either first or second announced. If it’s first, there is only one option for the third slot and that’s Suicide Squad. The first title tells you much as if it isn’t Ove, Suicide Squad will miss out entirely.

Deadpool, Dressmaker, Florence, Hail, Caesar!, Man Called Ove, Star Trek, Suicide Squad

Best Costume Design

The first title will tell us a bit about what’s going on. This category has a tendency towards one-off nominations and will very often go for films where costuming is a major focal point of the film. That’s why I suspect Dressmaker will be first. If not, whether it’s Captain Fantastic or Fantastic Beasts will help guide us towards the rest. Second or third on the list could be Florence Foster Jenkins, leaving three or four slots. Hail, Caesar! and Jackie seem assured of slots, but La La Land could stun with a nomination in there. Hidden Figures is also possible, as is Kubo and the Two Strings, but that may ultimately be a pipe dream. If for some reason Florence ends up fourth on the list, it’s possible Jackie has suffered the same way Evita did in 1996, an assured nominee being dumped in a surprise move.

Allied, Captain Fantastic, Dressmaker, Fantastic, Fences, Florence, Hacksaw, Hail, Caesar!, Hidden Figures, Jackie, Kubo, La La Land, Love & Friendship, Miss Peregrine, Rogue One, Rules Don’t Apply, Silence

Best Production Design

Arrival‘s best chance a non-traditional category is this one, ut it could easily be left off for the likes of Fantastic Beasts being announced first and something like Silence or Handmaiden making surprise appearances. If Fantastic is second, I suspect Hail, Caesar! will be third. If that film is skipped, the prior citations may make an appearance. La La Land may be the title most likely dropped thanks to its modern setting. It wouldn’t be unprecedented, but it’s not a guaranteed nominee. if there is only one slot left by the time you get through to La La Land, you won’t know for certain. However, if still have two slots after Hidden Figures or Hail, Caesar! it’s almost certain with Silence or another surprise making an appearance.

Arrival, Café Society, Doctor Strange, Fantastic, Fences, Hacksaw, Hail, Caesar!, Handmaiden, Hidden Figures, Jackie, Kubo, La La Land, Love & Friendship, Monster Calls, Nocturnal, Rogue One, Silence

Best Cinematography

Arrival should top the list, but if La La Land is announced first, Nocturnal Animals may be picking up a surprise nomination. After Arrival should be La La Land, then Lion and Moonlight as those three titles have no credible contenders to separate them. If at that point, there is only one slot left, Silence is certain to take it. If there are two and one of those four is missing, Silence and Nocturnal could be the selections.

Arrival, Hacksaw, Hail, Caesar!, Jackie, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight, Nocturnal, Silence, Sully

Best Film Editing

This category may tell us what films are strongest with Oscar for top nomination status and/or Best Picture possibilities. Arrival, La La Land, and Moonlight seem all but certain. It their announcement positions that will tell us a lot. Arrival going off first is to be expected, but the second title will say a great deal. Hacksaw Ridge or Hell or High Water could be announced before La La Land, but Jackie is a wild card in this list. If La La Land is announced third, Manchester and Moonlight may round out the list. If it’s fourth, then it’s Moonlight. If La La Land is actually second, it’s Lion that should be announced third.

Arrival, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, Jackie, La La Land, Lion, Manchester, Moonlight, Nocturnal, Patriots Day, Silence, Sully

Traditional Announcement Categories

Best Supporting Actor

The true strength of Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals, and Hell or High Water start here. There will be a lot of shock if Mahershala Ali isn’t the first nominee and Jeff Bridges isn’t second. The next big question comes immediately after. Is Bridges’ co-star Ben Foster getting nominated or will it jump straight to Hugh Grant, whose chances have brightened in recent days. Of course, Kevin Costner coming in third would be a major surprise as well, which means Lucas Hedges will likely have missed. The fourth name announced will also tell us a lot. If it’s Hedges, Dev Patel is likely fifth. If it’s Hugh Grant, the same. However, if Pate ends up fourth, then the fifth slot is either Michael Shannon or Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

Ali, Beatty, Bridges, Costner, Ehrenreich, Fiennes, Foster, Grant, Hedges, Neeson, Ogata, Patel, Shannon (Loving), Shannon (Nocturnal), Taylor-Johnson

Best Supporting Actress

If Kevin Costner appeared in Supporting Actor, then it’s possible two ladies from Hidden Figures will make an appearance and the film has earned a slot in Best Picture. The first name will say a great deal about what to expect. If it’s Viola Davis, everything should play out as expected. If it’s Judy Davis, all bets are off because something strange has occurred. After Davis (or Davises), the second or third slot should go to Moonlight‘s Naomi Harris, but a Greta Gerwig or Lily Gladstone appearance could spell danger for the likes of Octavia Spencer or Michelle Williams. Third should be Nicole Kidman, but she could be ousted in favor of newcomer Janelle Monae in the third slot. If it’s Kidman in third, the last two will likely be Spencer and Williams. If We get to Kidman as the fourth nomination, either Spencer or Williams has been left off and so too will the film’s chances be dashed. Hidden Figures needs a Spencer nomination more than does Manchester by the Sea need a Williams nod.

J. Davis, V. Davis, Gerwig, Gladstone, Harris, Jones, Kidman, Monae (Hidden), Monae (Moonlight), Shannon, Spencer, Williams

Best Actor

Casey Affleck will lead us off and the second name on the list could upheave everything. Joel Edgerton and Adam Driver are unlikely nominees, but either showing up means that one of the four almost certain nominees has been jettisoned and, I lean towards Viggo Mortensen. Second should be Andrew Garfield with Ryan Gosling in third. If Gosling is second, Jake Gyllenhaal might have pulled off a surprise nomination, so too could Hollywood fave Tom Hanks or resurgent Michael Keaton. The big question is whether Mortensen finishes off the list or Denzel Washington. It would be an absolute shock if Washington was ignored based on the film’s importance as his self-directed vehicle, but BAFTA ignored him, which might spell weakness.

Affleck, Driver, Edgerton, Garfield, Gordon-Levitt, Gosling, Gyllenhaal, Hanks, Keaton, Mortensen, Pine, Washington

Best Actress

The first three names tell us everything we need to know as there are only two names guaranteed on this list and those are Natalie Portman and Emma Stone. Amy Adams has long been talked about as an opener, but she could be dropped in favor of Annette Bening whose nomination seems to be the most in danger. Second on the list determines the remaining names. if it’s Annette Bening, then we have one more spot to go before knowing everything. Isabelle Huppert in second, locks in the final three slots as Portman, Stone, and Meryl Streep. Bening puts Streep and Huppert in question. Huppert leading off the list is good news for Ruth Negga, but Huppert in second or even third means Negga is certainly out. If Huppert is third and Portman fourth, Stone finishes it off and Streep is out. If Portman is third, then it’s certain to be Stone and Streep.

Adams (Arrival), Bening, Blunt, Chastain, Hall, Henson, Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep

Best Adapted Screenplay

A lot will have transpired by this point, but there aren’t many options. The biggest question is what comes in last. Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, and Silence are all fighting for that final announcement slot. The first three titles on the list should tell us everything. Arrival, Fences, and Hidden Figures or Lion will mean a lot. If Figures is third, then it’s Lion and Moonlight following up. If Lion is third, then Moonlight is likely fourth and Nocturnal or Silence is last. Lion in second means all of them are possibilities. The spoiler at the end of the list Loving, which seems to have faded a lot in the last few weeks.

Arrival, Elle, Fences, Hacksaw, Hidden Figures, Lion, Love & Friendship, Loving, Monster Calls, Moonlight, Nocturnal, Silence

Best Original Screenplay

There aren’t many options at all here and the first title announced may determine just how out of whack the whole thing is. First, let me caution that I have placed 20th Century Women alphabetically under “T,” but if they put it at the top of the list, it could shift the whole dynamic. I suspect Hell or High Water will lead things off, but Hail, Caesar! wouldn’t be too surprising and then either Hell, Jackie, or Lobster might be jettisoned. Jackie could be first, but so too could be La La Land. If that’s the case, then 20th Century and Zootopia will join Lobster and Manchester on the list. Only La La Land and Manchester by the Sea seem like sure things on this list.

Hail, Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Jackie, La La Land, Lobster, Manchester, Moana, 20th Century Women, Zootopia

Best Animated Feature

While the nominations here won’t impact any other category, other categories will certainly tell us what’s going on. There are three titles everyone expects to be here: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, and Zootopia. Beyond that is conjecture. All three of them receiving nominations in other categories is a good sign. Kubo could have appeared in Visual Effects, Costume Design, Production Design, and/or Original Score. Zootopia could show up in Original Screenplay and Moana might make it into Original Score and is almost guaranteed an Original Song nomination. So, how do you determine which other two titles are on this list. The first announcement is key. Kubo going first means we’re likely going to have two GKids titles on the list. Finding Dory first means one of those two is going to miss. After Kubo, which will be first or second, it’s a long stretch of options before Moana and Kung Fu Panda 3 inserting itself could be the surprise of the morning. Little Prince is also a possibility to jump in second or third. With Moana out of the way, there will be either two or three slots left. With two, it’s Red Turtle and Zootopia. If it’s three left, then My Life as a Zucchini could be the choice, but watch out for blockbuster Secret Life of Pets and late-year release Sing as option. Another possibility is Japanese blockbuster Your Name. It’s all academic though if Moana is third and either Zucchini or Red Turtle are fourth as Zootopia is the guaranteed anchor title.

.25 April, Angry Birds, April, Bilal, Finding Dory, Ice Age, Kingsglaive, Kubo, Kung Fu Panda, Little Prince, Long Way North, Miss Hokusai, Moana, Monkey King, Mune, Mustafa, Zucchini, Phantom Boy, Red Turtle, Sausage Party, Secret Life, Sing, Snowtime!, Storks, Trolls, Your Name., Zootopia

Best Foreign Language Film

Only A Man Called Ove and My Life as a Zucchini have been talked about in any other categories, though Toni Erdmann could earn a surprise writing nomination. We find out what’s going on with the first choice on the list. Land of Mine going first means there aren’t many options left and it’s probably going to play out as I suspect. If Ove is first, then the only two films that aren’t on my choices, Zucchini seems like the best bet. If Ove is second, the third announcement tells us the other two titles: Paradise and Erdmann. If Zucchini or Ove is fourth, then Erdmann is fifth.

It’s Only, King’s Choice, Land of Mine, Man Called Ove, Zucchini, Paradise, Salesman, Tanna, Toni Erdmann

Best Director

By the point this category is announced, there won’t be much left and we should know sufficient information to make an educated guess. Arrival performing as expected or better means Denis Villeneuve is first announced (they announce by film title and not director’s name, but with this new format, things could change). If Ben Foster made it into supporting actor and Hell or High Water performed well elsewhere, David Mackenzie could be the change out from the Directors Guild of America list. Hidden Figures could have a great morning, but I suspect Theodore Melfi won’t share in it, but stranger things have happened. Likewise, Jackie could have a decent morning, but Pablo Larrain could easily get passed over. However, if Jackie has a better-than-expected morning, I wouldn’t put it past the directors branch to recognize a director whose work is predominantly in a foreign language. There are two almost guaraneteed titles on this list, Damien Chazelle for La La Land and Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. Kenneth Lonergan has become a fairly reliable bet for Manchester by the Sea and Garth Davis has emerged fairly prominently in his race towards a nod for Lion. The first or second title will tell us precisely how thing play out. If Arrival is first, then it’s likely La La Land, Lion, Manchester, and Moonlight. If second is Denzel Washington for Fences, Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, Mackenzie, Melfi, or Larrain, Lonergan or Davis is missing the list. Any other outcome will result in huge public outcry, especially if it’s Jenkins being jettisoned. If La La Land is second, then things play out as normal, but watch out for who’s announced fourth. Moonlight arriving in fourth would be a shock leaving Tom Ford’s Nocturnal a possibility, but a more likely outcome of Martin Scorsese for Silence.

Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, Jackie, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester, Moonlight, Nocturnal, Silence, Sully

Best Picture

And now we’re down to the end. Anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees can be announced. And we may know precisely how many we have when we hit La La Land. Since that film is assured a nomination, as are Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight. Only Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Silence, and Sully could come after that and only one of those, Silence, really seems like it has an outside chance of a nomination.

Arrival should be first. Second place may shrink the ultimate total. With Fences in second, we’re looking at nine or ten. With Hacksaw Ridge or Hell or High Water in second, we’re looking at eight or seven respectively. Hidden Figures seems like it’s in decent shape to make an appearance and Jackie seems like a lost cause at this point.

However, since there are so few potential nominees here, fourteen titles, you can see where things are heading by looking at performances in prior categories. The five titles with Best Director nominations are guaranteed nominations in Best Picture. Arrival failing to show up in several craft categories could be a blow to its chances. Fences needs both Denzel Washington, Viola Davis, and Adapted Screenplay to remain viable. Missing any of these may ultimately mean it misses this list. Hacksaw Ridge will be helped by Andrew Garfield being nominated, but would be in a more solid position with several craft nominations and possibly an Adapted Screenplay and/or Director citation. Hell or High Water would be helped by an appearance in Director, but also Original Screenplay and a double Supporting Actor mention would be a great service to the iflm. Hidden Figures showing up in Production Design, Costume Design, and Original Score could be beneficial, with the latter being the least likely get. If Monae and Spencer both get Supporting Actress nominations, a Best Picture miss would be a shock.

Jackie needs an Original Screenplay nomination to be assured consideration here. Getting the expected Best Actress nomination along with Original Score and possibly Film Editing and Costume Design would also help. If it ends up with little else besides Natalie Portman, it’s done. La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight are guarantees. Lion is a solid fifth or sixth slotter, which could be hindered by a weak performance in other categories, especially if Kidman somehow misses Supporting Actress. Loving would be helped by Adapted Screenplay, Actor, and Actress nominations, but more below-the-line mentions could help. Nocturnal Animals will likely be here if it can get Gyllenhaal nominated as well as mentions in Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing. Sully is probably dead in the water, but five or six nominations in other categories might resuscitate its chances.

The big wild card here is Silence. The film has been roundly ignored by the guilds, thanks to Paramount’s failed Oscar campaigning strategy, but Martin Scorsese is a trooper, and well respected, so he could still show up. Right now, the guilds have forecast few nominations for the film, but if it picks up a half dozen nominations, a Best Picture nomination is likely in the cards. If Scorsese earns a Best Director nod, Best Picture is assured.

Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, Jackie, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester, Moonlight, Nocturnal, Silence, Sully

And that’s everything for this year. I feel a bit like I rushed through some of these and I apologize if they don’t make 100% sense. However, this is where things stand. To hear my regular comments on each category, follow the link above to our contributors’ final predictions.