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FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

On Tuesday morning, January 24, 2012, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing its nominees for the 84th Annual Academy Awards. It will be broadcast live at just after 5:30a PST (6:30a MST, 7:30a CST, 8:30a EST). This year, Academy president Tom Sherak will be joined by Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence for the announcement.

While the morning shows will cover the event, they are on tape delay for the rest of the country, so watching those may get you the information later than most everyone else. Your best bet is to watch live coverage on E! and maybe CNN Live or some of the other news channels (if they feel like it). I will, however, be updating my site with the information as I receive it.

The first announcement I post will be the short list of categories announced live, then as I get more information, I will update that post with the rest of it.

Every year, I provide a primer for Oscar Nominations Morning, a way to help you get in the right frame of mind and understand what’s going on and when.
The most important thing to know before sitting down to the announcement, is what order the categories will be announced in. To make it easier, I have put them in order below so you can just follow along as you need to. In addition, I have prepared a .pdf file you can print out and check off as the nominees are announced (it’s what I usually do anyway).

Since 1991, Supporting Actor and Lead Actor have always been announced ahead of their associated counterparts. For the last four years, Supporting Actress and Lead Actress have lead their counterparts. So, we’ll go with the current trend.

Best Supporting Actress

So far, I haven’t heard anything about whether the TV screens will be used for all categories but Best Picture, but since we know for sure Best Picture won’t have them, then it’s possible they will forego the traditional screens for the other categories. A shame indeed.

Whether they use the screens or not, Best Supporting Actress (or Best Supporting Actor if they decide to change things up) will lead off the nominations announcements. The first name on the list could tell us many things. For instance, if Kathy Bates makes the list first, Midnight in Paris will be Woody Allen’s most nominated film in over a decade. It will also pretty much guarantee a Best Picture spot for the film (which is a fairly solid bet at this point). If Bรฉrรฉnice Bejo is first, no one will be really surprised as The Artist seems destined for the year’s top nomination count. However, if Jessica Chastain is read first, then Bejo will be knocking Glenn Close or Tilda Swinton out of the Best Actress race, but if she doesn’t appear at all, The Artist could be in trouble.

Of course, when Chastain’s name is read off, the big question will be for which film. The safe bet is The Help, but it could be for either Take Shelter or The Tree of Life. Which film gets her the nomination will determine a great deal. The Help would mean the film does expected business. If it’s Take Shelter, expect a nomination for Michael Shannon in Best Actor. If for The Tree of Life, the film will have made a decent comeback and should make an appearance in several categories we’re now conceding it’s likely to miss.

Chastain will likely be the second name on the list making the third name very interesting. If the Bridesmaids love is to be believed, Melissa McCarthy should be third. If you hear Janet McTeer, then Bridesmaids is likely to be shut out everywhere including in Best Original Screenplay. If neither Bates nor Bejo show up before Chastain, the Marion Cotillard could be the second name on the list indicating further love for Midnight in Paris. After McTeer, there are two names I’d like to see but don’t expect. The first is Carey Mulligan whose work in Shame has gotten great notices, but if she gets nominated and it’s for Drive, then Drive is likely to be included in Best Picture, otherwise there’s no real change.

The big surprise of the morning would be an inclusion of Vanessa Redgrave in the third of fourth spots. There are two reasons for this. If she shows up third (as I would expect she would have to), then it mean that either Octavia Spencer (less likely) or Shailene Woodley (more likely) is left off. Since I doubt Redgrave’s name will be called, if we’ve only had three names announced by the time we hear Octavia Spencer, then the last slot is Woodley’s. If there are four names so far announced, while it would be surprising if they left off Spencer, Woodley would be the most likely to be ignored.

Bates, Bejo, Chastain, Cotillard, McCarthy, McTeer, Mulligan, Redgrave, Spencer, Woodley

Best Supporting Actor

Leading off the supporting actor list will be Kenneth Branagh. The only situation I can see where he’s ignored is if the Academy entirely rejects My Week with Marilyn which doesn’t seem likely at this point. If he’s not first, then the first name could be Albert Brooks. I’d imagine him coming up second, but if he’s first, then there will be a lot of interesting names in the final list.

Brooks could still be the second name without Branagh on the list, which would mean The Iron Lady support is much stronger than we expect, which could get the small role Jim Broadbent plays ni the film a nomination. But I don’t think it will happen. Third on the list could be one of four names. The first one could be John Goodman who would get in purely on name recognition for a film that the Academy loves. If Goodman is nominated, The Artist could be on its way to a record-setting tally. But, I expect he won’t be third.

It could also be Armie Hammer. If Hammer makes it in, then his J. Edgar co-star Leonardo DiCaprio should also make an appearance in Best Actor. Having Hammer and not DiCaprio is a very unlikely proposition. But third is even more likely to be John Hawkes who’s already made the Oscar derby once with an indie performance and the admiration for his interesting style could be a second Oscar nomination. Yet, to my chagrin, I’m sensing the third nominee will be Jonah Hill. Moneyball has been trending very well this Oscar season and if Hill makes it in, the film will certainly be a Best Picture nominee. If he’s not, then the Academy didn’t warm up to the film as much and we may have to see if Brad Pitt’s a nominee before determining whether the film makes the top category.

If there are already four names out by this point, just scratch in Christopher Plummer and move on. Otherwise, fourth position could go to Plummer but is more likely to end up in the hands of one of four people. Ben Kingsley seems an Academy favorite and will likely repeat with a nomination for Hugo. His mention also tells us how strong the film is performing. If he’s in, the film will be a Best Picture nominee. If he’s not, then the chances are slightly dicier, but still quite likely. Viggo Mortensen could also ride prior-nominee sentiment to a nomination for A Dangerous Method which hasn’t figured in the Oscar race much at all. I doubt he’s the fourth, but it could happen.

Nick Nolte’s also a good possibility for fourth position and would be recognition of a long, valuable career. But with Plummer, Brooks and Branagh in the competition, the Academy may not want to give it to a long-timer, which could give Patto Oswalt an opportunity for Young Adult. If he does get nominated, Charlize Theron could be in for Best Actress and the film will likely be an Original Screenplay nominee.

Then there’s the final spot, which I’m sure will go to Plummer. But if not and Plummer’s read fourth, then there’s really only one possibility for the final spot: Max von Sydow. But, as I expect, Plummer will be last on the list.

Branagh, Broadbent, Brooks, Goodman, Hammer, Hawkes, Hill, Kingsley, Mortensen, Nolte, Oswalt, Plummer, von Sydow

Best Actress

While the list of potential nominees in the Best Actress race is small, the competition is fierce and until Tuesday, we wonโ€™t really know what was on the Academyโ€™s minds.

There are only three names I fully expect to see on the list of nominees with two other spots quite open for grabs. The first name on the list will tell just which of those two open spots we are to expect filled. Glenn Close has been on the bubble for some time now. Her film was considered slight and unimpressive despite the caliber of her performance. But on several occasions this Oscar season sheโ€™s been missing from various nominations lists and picked up not even a single trophy. For a labor of love, the type of story the Academy loves to here, her presence in contention has been notably muted. I expect her to eke this contest out based entirely on name recognition and become the first name on the list. The first guaranteed nomination comes next as Viola Davis will most certainly be listed first or second depending on Closeโ€™s recognition.

The next three possible names will show up in two situations. One, if Close isnโ€™t nominated; and two, if Tilda Swinton is absent. If Close has been mentioned and Meryl Streep is not the third name on the list, Swinton will be the lone absentee from my nomination predictions. However, if it was Close missing, the second name to show up will either be Kirsten Dunst, Rooney Mara or Elizabeth Olsen. My guess is that it would be Mara due to the rising, late-game popularity of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. If Close is gone and Streep is the second name announced, not only is Tilda Swinton safe, but Charlize Theron will follow Swintonโ€™s third-place mention and be closed out by Michelle Williams.

Regardless of how things look, the three names youโ€™ll be guaranteed to hear are Davis, Streep and Williams. The rest are up in the air at this point and Iโ€™ll be interested to see this one play out.

Close, Davis, Dunst, Mara, Olsen, Streep, Swinton, Theron, Williams

Best Actor

Like Best Actress, there are three names you can expect to hear announced Tuesday morning: George Clooney, Jean Dujardin and Brad Pitt. The remaining two spots seem to be heavily in flux, but seem to be leaning towards Michael Fassbender and a mysterious fifth nominee I expect to be Michael Shannon. But to put this in possible chronological order, Clooney should be the first name out of the gate.

Demian Bichir had a brief bit of celebrity in the race, making a surprise appearance on the Screen Actors Guild list. SAG isnโ€™t known for nominating unknowns, but here you have Bichir. However, Bichir isnโ€™t exactly unknown and had a prominent role on popular series Weeds. Bichirโ€™s is just the kind of journeyman actor recognition the Academy has handed out in the past and the Academy has ignored. So pencil Clooney in for the first mention.

The second name on the list could give us a clue as to where the rest of the announcement is going. Between Clooney and Dujardin is the big question mark: Leonardo DiCaprio. DiCaprioโ€™s film was savaged by critics, but he still managed a SAG nomination. There is residual good will left for frequent Oscar loser DiCaprio and for making a loathsome figure modestly likeable or at least comprehendible, DiCaprio could make it in. If he is in, then either Fassbender or, more likely, Shannon is out. After Dujardin whether in the second or third position, should come Fassbender whoโ€™s had an amazingly successful year. The Academy likes stories like his and I imagine that despite the NC-17 content of his film, Fassbender will fill in the third (or fourth) slot.

If Fassbenderโ€™s fourth, then Pitt rounds out the list and we can move on. However, if as I expect Fassbender is third, the surprise fifth nominee will come somewhere before or after Pitt, so if Fassbender is third, then the fourth slot could go to Ryan Gosling for having a likewise terrific year (and possibly propelling Drive into the Best Picture race); or Woody Harrelson whose Oscar talk rose and faded within the span of a few weeks; or Gary Oldman whose work in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has been buzzed about long enough that he could make the final list.

The thing is that Oldmanโ€™s a very well respected actor yet he didnโ€™t crack the SAG list. It could be that his film didnโ€™t pick up steam until late in the season and voters may not have seen it or it could mean they arenโ€™t impressed with the relative quietness of his performance. Either way, the fourth name on the list will either be Fassbender, Pitt or perhaps Gosling or Oldman. Pitt comes in fourth or fifth on most estimations of the list, but if heโ€™s fourth, there are two options for the fifth spot and my money would be on Michael Shannong. The other potential name is Owen Wilson who had a career resurgence thanks to Woody Allenโ€™s film, but who has been utterly absent from precursor season. His is the kind of work you would expect to see show up with critics in small measure, but he hasnโ€™t.

So, in the end, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Gosling, Oldman and Shannon are the wild cards fighting for the two unlocked spots in the Best Actor race.

Bichir, Clooney, DiCaprio, Dujardin, Fassbender, Gosling, Harrelson, Oldman, Pitt, Shannon, Wilson

Best Director

The DGA has matched up with the Best Director category at the Oscars quite frequently, which gives a number of names on this list a strong possibility of nomination, but the Academy also loves to throw in a few strange selections to keep things interesting. This category is usually announced alphabetically by film title, but the directors are the important names to listen for.

There are really five names that have been mentioned most frequently, the DGA five specifically, that I have little doubt they will end up the same nominees at the Oscars: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, Alexander Payne for The Descedants, David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Martin Scorsese for Hugo and Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris. There are two of these names I would be shocked to not hear called Tuesday, so Iโ€™m going to assume that both Hazanavicius and Scorsese are locks. The others have pros and cons that I could see resulting in their appearance or lack thereof.

The first name out of the gate will be Hazanavicius. He will be followed either by Payne, Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive, Stephen Daldry for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Cose, Fincher or Tate Taylor for The Help. I think Payne is a solid, but not locked choice and so Iโ€™m giving him the benefit of the doubt and second place. Fincher, however, is relying on the late-race surge of his film to propel him to a nomination. By this point, though weโ€™ll know two things. If Refn is third on the list, we should have seen Ryan Gosling or Carey Mulligan nominated (for Drive and not Shame as Iโ€™m predicting her nomination would be for). If neither are, I wouldnโ€™t expect Refn to show up on this list. Daldryโ€™s appearance would be the shock of the day and be quite the coup for Scott Rudin. His film has been ravaged by critics and has ultimately disappeared from every precursor it could have contended in. I leave Daldry in because heโ€™s managed three nominations in the past, at least one of which was an absolute surprise (for Billy Elliot).

My suspicion, though is that Fincher will be the third name listed. However, if heโ€™s skipped and Taylor is given that third spot, Best Picture may be a bigger race than we originally imagined as The Help will have one of the nominations it needs to contend for a Best Picture win. Of course, Scorsese could be listed third and if he does, then the latter half of the names on this list is most interesting. If heโ€™s second, itโ€™s an even more wide open final three.

Although George Clooneyโ€™s The Ides of March has stuck around surprisingly long this Oscar season, I doubt heโ€™s going to get a mention here giving the next slot almost certainly to Woody. Like Fincher, I would be surprised if Allen isnโ€™t listed for Best Director. If he isnโ€™t, then his film might not even make the Best Picture slate, a prospect Iโ€™m not thinking will occur. If Allen is miraculously listed third, then the two names to follow will be comprised of either Bennett Miller for Moneyball, Asghar Farhadi for A Separation, Tomas Alfredsom for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life, Steven Spielberg for War Horse or Jason Reitman for Young Adult.

Even typing those names out makes me think that a solid list of ten directors could be fielded this year. I am currently predicting Allen to be listed fifth, but if he comes in third or fourth on the list, Iโ€™d rank Farhadi, Alfredsom and Spielberg as the most likely names to take the remaining spot. Farhadi would hold with the tradition of the Academyโ€™s director branch selecting foreign language film directors to take the odd-man-out Best Director spot. However, since there is still talk of A Separation making the Best Picture slate, I tend to think they wonโ€™t be as keen to recognize him.

Alfredson will only appear if Oldman has already been slotted. If Oldman isnโ€™t on the Best Actor list, you can immediately scratch Alfredson from consideration. The wild card here is Spielberg. War Horse wasnโ€™t as successful as Spielbergโ€™s previous efforts, but like Munich before it, War Horse has kept attention on itself through precursor season. I could easily see Spielberg sliding into the list before Miller, Malick or Reitman.

Hazanavicius, Payne, Refn, Daldry, Fincher, Taylor, Scorsese, Clooney, Allen, Miller, Farhadi, Alfredson, Malick, Spielberg, Reitman

Best Original Screenplay

The Artist and Midnight in Paris are the only two really solid potential nominees here. The rest of the films are all likely to get in. There are three films in the below list whose mentions could be in direct relation to an acting nomination. A Better Life should be considered a threat for a nomination if Demian Bichir is mentioned in Best Actor. Melissa McCarthy could be a sign that Bridesmaids is about to get nominated. And Martha Marcy May Marlene could be listed if either John Hawkes or Elizabeth Olsen are nominated.

The rest are all going to make it or not based on their filmโ€™s reputations. The first name I think weโ€™ll hear on Tuesday morning is 50/50, a cancer dramedy that has picked up awards and nominations from critics groups much to everyoneโ€™s surprise. The film has stuck around so effectively after its earlier-year release that I canโ€™t imagine it not making it through. That would put The Artist second on the list (unless 50/50 is alphabetized under โ€œFโ€, at which point if we hear Midnight in Paris before it, then it isnโ€™t nominated).

The second name on the list if 50/50 isnโ€™t mentioned could very well be Beginners. Since we know Christopher Plummer is probably going to be nominated, his film could carry in. However, the filmโ€™s screenplay has often been faulted for its weaknesses, which wonโ€™t be lost on the screenwriters. Second or third could also be Better Life, Bridesmaids, (50/50 if itโ€™s under โ€œFโ€), Margin Call or Martha Marcy May Marlene. These latter two films although theyโ€™ve been getting attention during precursor season, the latter hasnโ€™t gotten nearly as much as I expected and the former seems like a rather strong spoiler. However, I think the third title to be announced will be Midnight in Paris furthering Woody Allenโ€™s impressive streak of nominations in screenwriting. The fourth (or fifth) spot could go to A Separation.

The film has been very well received throughout precursor season and I would not be surprised if itโ€™s the rare Best Foreign Language Film nominee to make an appearance outside of that category. I am currently predicting it to be announced fourth, but it could also be The Tree of Life. Tree hasnโ€™t been very popular with the guilds, which means it isnโ€™t really high on anyoneโ€™s priority list, but if Malick was nominated for Best Director in the previous set of announcements, then The Tree of Life most certainly will appear here. However, I think the fifth spot will go to Win Win. Thomas McCarthyโ€™s film has been quite visible this season and heโ€™s no stranger to the race, but ultimately I think the fifth position could come down to McCarthyโ€™s film and Young Adult. Diablo Cody is a previous nominee, which will help her, but her film hasnโ€™t had nearly the same attention that usually accompanies a Jason Reitman film. If Patton Oswalt or Charlize Theron were picked as nominees in the acting categories, then the fifth spot will most assuredly go to Cody. Of course, if Win Win is mentioned fourth you have further assurance that fifth will be Young Adult.

50/50, The Artist, Beginners, A Better Life, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Midnight in Paris, A Separation, The Tree of Life, Win Win, Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay

The last chance to see what the Best Picture landscape might look like comes with the announcement of the Best Adapted Screenplay nominees.

While three of the likely Best Picture nominees will almost certainly make an appearance here, two other major Oscar Best Picture contenders should fill out the slate with other hopefuls wanting to pick this nomination up to further make a case for their Best Picture inclusion.

Leading off the list will be The Descendants one of the three most likely nominees here. The second title to be announced could mean a great deal. If Drive and/or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are the next listed, a Best Picture nomination may be just around the corner. I think, however, that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be the second title revealed. It is also a weak potential nominee and I could easily see Drive or another film later in the list taking its spot. The next most likely nominee would be announced third (or second if things are particularly strange). The Help was a huge box office success and the film is destined for a boat load of nominations, one of which is Best Adapted Screenplay.

Following it on the list could be either Hugo or Moneyball. Although The Ides of March might be mentioned in there, Iโ€™m doubting it has enough wherewithal to make the list. Hugo biggest problem is that itโ€™s an overloaded screenplay that could have used some fine tuning. The screenwriters might see it the same way and pass it over, but in the end, if Hugo is going to get a Best Picture nomination, I wouldnโ€™t be surprised to see it here. Moneyball is the third guaranteed film on the listing giving last yearโ€™s winner Aaron Sorkin another feather in his cap. Most likely, Moneyball will have been the fifth title announced, but if itโ€™s not, the remaining slot could be put in the hands of any one of four films.

Pedro Almodovarโ€™s The Skin I Live In is just the kind of surprise foreign entrant that makes an appearance in these lists. However, since A Separation is more likely to fill that void and The Skin I Live In hasnโ€™t exactly been at the forefront of most peopleโ€™s minds, I think the more likely fifth place finisher would be Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. That film has had the luck of rising at just the right time and with all the attention the British Academy gave the film, Iโ€™d be surprised if the fifth nominee werenโ€™t Tinker. If War Horse shows up here, then a Best Picture nomination is likely assured, but a more unusual choice might find its way into spot five. We Need to Talk About Kevin already has a strong potential for an acting nomination and itโ€™s one of the more interesting and odd contenders on the list. If the screenwriters are feeling a bit rebellious, they could go for Lynn Ramsayโ€™s film. But I wouldnโ€™t hold my breath on that one.

The Descendants, Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, The Skin I Live In, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Foreign Language Film

As usual, thereโ€™s a decidedly European flair to the final shortlist for the Best Foreign Language Film Award. Belgium, Poland, Denmark and Germany are all on the list. Surprisingly, itโ€™s the middle east that has the second-most mentions resulting in nominations for Iran and Israel, two vehemently opposed neighbors in the region. Canada, Morocco and Taiwan round out the list.

Thereโ€™s one film in this bunch of nine films that, were it not to be nominated, all living hell would break loose and a strong push would be mounted to change the categoryโ€™s rules yet again. That film is A Separation. Universally recognized as one of the yearโ€™s best films (even compared to those in the English language), a nomination seems all but assured, but if thereโ€™s one group that doesnโ€™t do what itโ€™s supposed to, itโ€™s this one.

Since there are only nine possible names on the list, itโ€™s pretty easy to see which direction they could go. I think Israelโ€™s Footnote is likely to be first. There is a voting bloc that may not want to see A Separation nominated without some country-based balanced, giving Israel an unfair foot in the door. The film made the short list over a number of more prominent and respected works, so itโ€™s very likely it will be the first title called out. Second on the list is almost assuredly Agnieska Hollandโ€™s In Darkness. The Polish entry is a Holocaust film from a director whose been nominated outside of the Foreign Language category for a Foreign Language film, a very rare feat. So, expect her film to make the list.

Canada, like Germany, has had a surprisingly strong showing with the Academy over the last several years. Monsieur Lazhar is another fairly likely nominee, giving North America (and the Americas in general for that matter) its only entry into the competition. The next title should be A Separation and then rounding out the list will either been Germany or Taiwan. Many are predicting German Pina to take the nomination, but the documentary doesnโ€™t quite seem like the kind of movie the foreign language voters tend to pick, but Warriors of the Rainbow seems like a perfect fit. And being the only East Asian entrant on the list will no doubt have some impact.

Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Monsieur Lazhar, Omar Killed Me, A Separation, Superclasico, Pina, Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale

Best Animated Film

Making absolute declaratives on who will and wonโ€™t be nominated is a dicey situation with this group. The only type of film theyโ€™ve shown notable reticence of recognizing are live action/animation hybrids. Cut Alvin and the Chipmunks and The Smurfs off the list for sure. Neither films were particularly well received and the former didnโ€™t have nominations in prior years for its prior films, so you can definitely ignore it.

There are only two titles I can say with certainly will be nominated: The Adventures of Tintin and Rango. Pixarโ€™s entry Cars 2 seems like it would likely be ignored, but even the Annie Awards recognized it. Iโ€™m not going into many details since there are so few potential outcomes here, but keep an eye out for a nomination to one of the foreign entries (Alois Nebel, A Cat in Paris or Chico and Rita), cross off the sequel whose original werenโ€™t nominated (Hoodwinked Two!), scratch out critical weaklings (Gnomeo & Juliet, Happy Feet Two, Mars Needs Moms and Rio) and you have a final list that could be mixed together in any number of ways.

The Adventures of Tintin, Alois Nebel, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, Arthur Christmas, Cars 2, A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Gnomeo & Juliet, Happy Feet Two, Hoodwinked Two! Hood vs. Evil, Kung Fu Panda 2, Mars Needs Moms, Puss in Boots, Rango, Rio, The Smurfs, Winnie the Pooh, Wrinkles

Best Picture

By this point, we should have a good idea of what films have solid chances and which ones have no chances at getting nominations. We donโ€™t know if there will be five, six, seven, eight, nine or ten nominees this year, but considering how many strong competitors there are, I would not be surprised to see eight or more nominees. We could even get ten if things are particularly broad. But we wonโ€™t know until all of the nominees are announced whether or not thatโ€™s the case.

And since weโ€™re only getting the nominations in a random order, the best way to highlight the competing films is alphabetical.

The Artist โ€“ Harvey Weinsteinโ€™s horse in the race is guaranteed a nomination. Itโ€™s also likely to be the most nominated film of the day. If both Bรฉrรฉnice Bejo and Jean Dujardin are nominated, weโ€™re looking at around twelve nominations. Fewer than that might be considered a disappointment.

Bridesmaids โ€“ With comedy, nothing is ever certain. And with gross out comedies, never bet the farm on a Best Picture nomination. Although the film has earned quite a few positive notices and has picked up a handful of Best Picture nominations from various groups, the Academy is notably reticent to recognize such works considering them too broad to stand in the annals of history as a Best Picture nominee. My guess is the film is utterly ignored, but if it picks up a Best Original Screenplay nomination, then it could very well be nominated here.

The Descendants โ€“ Alexander Payneโ€™s film will be his first Best Picture nominee since the critical success Sideways. This is one of a handful of films that I canโ€™t see the Academy avoiding. If Payne is nominated for Best Director, then this nomination is undoubtedly guaranteed. But if heโ€™s not and the screenplay isnโ€™t cited, trouble is in the air.

Drive โ€“ Although it had surged a bit towards the end of December and into the early parts of 2012, the movie has once again begun to fade. I would love to see it nominated like it was with the British Academy, but Iโ€™m afraid the American Academy is a little more sheepish when it comes to this kind of film.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close โ€“ Stephen Daldryโ€™s film has almost no chance at a nomination, but I list it here for completeness. The film has been receiving some positive word of mouth in recent weeks, but not enough to counteract all of the negative publicity its received. But with Scott Rudin producing the Oscars, I could seem him wanting to bolster his reputation by getting two horses in the race.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo โ€“ The second horse is the film he seemed to begin championing with Extremely Loud was trounced by critics. Dragon Tattoo has been steadily rising in the last several weeks and as we expect Rudin to get one pony in the derby, his considerable clout may have lined up at just the right time for this film.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 โ€“ It should have made a showing at the Producers Guild of America, which suggests the filmโ€™s last-ditch effort for a series-recognition Best Picture nomination are almost as bad as the chances Extremely Loud will make it through. The only thing that could bolster the filmโ€™s standing is if all the tech voters push it to the top of their ballot over other, admittedly more dear-to-their-heart options.

The Help โ€“ Another film that I canโ€™t envision a Best Picture slate without. Boosted by the love of Oprah Winfrey and a legion of fans, the filmโ€™s box office success, precursor trove and general appreciation for its subject matter should result in an easy nomination for the film.

Hugo โ€“ This film has had a roller coaster ride through precursor season. Although director Martin Scorsese has gotten a lot of attention, the film hasnโ€™t been doing nearly as well. Failing to ignite a box office storm and earning criticism for feeling a bit too film preservation-preachy, itโ€™s one of those films that I doubt will miss the list, but wouldnโ€™t surprise me if it did.

The Ides of March โ€“ For all intents and purposes, the film was dead. It failed at the box office and it got good, but not excellent reviews. Yet, when the National Board of Review mentioned it as one of the best films of the year, wheels started turning. Then as it claimed several Golden Globe nominations, talk began building (though a lot of that was about how the Globes went after Clooney and it was his film), but everything solidified when the Producers Guild of America nominated it for Best Picture. Now itโ€™s suddenly in the race and weโ€™re all scratching our heads at how thatโ€™s possible. Yet, in the end, I think it will ultimately miss the Academy list.

Midnight in Paris โ€“ Early in Oscar season, I figured Woody Allenโ€™s film would be a guaranteed Best Original Screenplay nominee and little else. But as more and more attention was drawn to the film as the days went by, Best Picture and Best Director nominations became even more certain. And at this point, Iโ€™d be quite surprised if the film wasnโ€™t in the final slate of Best Picture nominees.

Moneyball โ€“ There arenโ€™t many films targeted at men that have done so well in Oscar season. Along with several prizes for Best Adapted Screenplay, Bennett Millerโ€™s film is following a similar career path to that of his Best Picture nominated film Capote. I think the film is one of the higher ranked potential nominees on the list and would be quite surprised if it werenโ€™t mentioned.

My Week with Marilyn โ€“ I bring up Marilyn only because itโ€™s Harvey Weinstein. The film is very likely to net two acting nominations, which gives it a boost among actors for the purposes of Best Picture consideration. Although I think the tepidly-reviewed film will be a no show, I donโ€™t want to exclude it for the same reason I didnโ€™t want to leave out Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

A Separation โ€“ Foreign language films earning Best Picture nominations is a very rare event, but in the case of Asghar Farhadiโ€™s film, Iโ€™d say the chances are looking up. The film has earned some of the strongest notices of the year and is poised to pick up nominations in Best Original Screenplay and Best Director (though both nods are far from certain). So, if it picks up either of those two nominations, I wouldnโ€™t be at all surprised to see it nominated.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy โ€“ Another film that had a nice late-season surge was Tomas Alfredsonโ€™s follow-up to the critically acclaimed Let the Right One In. This is the kind of quiet film that would have slipped in when the slate was maxed at ten nominations. However, with the potential for fewer, its chances are diminished. However, itโ€™s outstanding performance with the British Academy may be a signal that the film is peaking at the right time.

The Tree of Life โ€“ Early in Oscar season, Terrence Malickโ€™s film had all the earmarks of a Best Picture nominee. It was seeming to take a similar direction as Malickโ€™s last Best Picture nominee The Thin Red Line. However, despite critics loving the film and giving it several prizes, the film didnโ€™t catch on enough to be a real threat. While some point out that The Thin Red Line was a no-show with a lot of guilds like The Tree of Life was, Red Line managed one thing Tree did not: a DGA nomination. Without the DGA endorsing Malickโ€™s film, I think itโ€™s going to be very lucky to make the Best Picture lineup. Itโ€™s still entirely possible with a devoted fanbase, but Iโ€™m I donโ€™t think it will end up getting there.

War Horse โ€“ Spielbergโ€™s latest Best Picture contender was beginning to follow the same path that Extremely Loud was. Critics werenโ€™t in love with it and it didnโ€™t make many non-perfunctory appearances at the precursors. Yet, it continues to hold on and pick up nominations from various guilds, though not from all the ones youโ€™d expect. So, this remains one of the bigger question marks of the season. Spielbergโ€™s shown he can command Best Picture consideration even out of the blue (see Munich), but War Horse isnโ€™t exactly Saving Private Ryan (or Munich for that matter). While I think it will still probably end up a nominee, I wouldnโ€™t be surprised to see it ignored.

Young Adult โ€“ Like Stephen Daldry, Jason Reitman was a Hollywood wunderkind, earning praise and nominations for his various films. Although his first, Thank You for Smoking did not, both Juno and Up in the Air did not. So, going into the year, Young Adult seemed certain to be a contender. However, somewhere along the way, the film began turning into an also ran and then a non-contender. Why this sudden change? Perhaps the film didnโ€™t live up to expectations or it wasnโ€™t that good to begin with. Then thereโ€™s the possibility that Reitmanโ€™s ego may have gotten in the way (something that was on tongues leading into his surprise defeat for screenplay for Up in the Air). Whatever the reason, itโ€™s not slipped to a point from which I donโ€™t think it can recover. However, if the film picks up nominations for Patton Oswalt, Charlize Theron and/or Best Original Screenplay, I could very much see it sneaking into the Best Picture race and becoming the only true surprise of the day. Is it going to happen? Probably not.

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