After several delays due to the horrific L.A. fires, we are just two days from the announcement of the Oscar nominations for films released in 2024.

My expectation is that the ten films nominated for Best Picture will be Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, and Wicked. Of those, only The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Sing Sing are unavailable for home viewing in the U.S. at present.

The film expected to receive the most nominations is the French film, Emilia Pérez, which is set mainly in Mexico. The film has been streaming on Netflix for a while now but has yet to become one of the streaming service’s most viewed films. It has a low audience score by those who have seen it. Most of the complaints about the musical drama come from Mexicans who feel that the film gives a cliched view of the country and its drug problems. Others feel that the story about a vicious drug lord who becomes a living saint after he transitions to a woman is absurd, especially since no one recognizes that she was he. Still others don’t like the film’s music. Despite all this, awards bodies love it.

Karla Sofía Gascón who plays the enigmatic title character is considered a lock for a Best Actress nomination which would make her the first trans woman to be nominated for an acting Oscar while Zoe Saldaña, best known for her role in the Avatar movies, is considered a lock for Best Supporting Actress. Zaldaña, who plays Gascon’s lawyer, has a larger role causing some to call her awards campaign category fraud.

Singer-actress Selena Gomez is also a possible Best Supporting Actress nominee as Gascón’s ex-wife. The film is also a strong contender for Best Directing (Jacques Audiard), Adapted Screenplay, Song (both “el Mal” and “Mi Camino”), Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, and of course, International Feature which it is expected to win.

Both The Brutalist, which is still in theatres, and Conclave, which has both been streamed and released on Blu-ray, are also expected to receive many nominations – probably 8 to 10.

The Brutalist has won numerous critics’ awards and the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama, Actor – Drama for Adrien Brody, and Director for Brady Corbet. It is sure to be nominated for Oscars in those categories but is not a guaranteed winner. Many Oscar voters have either not seen it or not been able to sit through the entire three-and-a-half-hour film about an architect, a holocaust survivor who thrives in post-war America. That has hurt Best Supporting Actress contender Felicity Jones most as she only appears in the film’s second half. The film, which is also a strong contender for Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Production Design, and Costume Design could be released to streaming by A24 as soon as it completes its theatrical run on January 31 but no plans to do so have been announced.

Conclave, the suspense filled drama about the machinations of Roman Catholic cardinals to elect a new pope, is probably going to be an also-ran in every category except Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), either or both of which it could win. Rossellini is a sentimental favorite despite her limited on-screen time as a nun who has seen it all. Her mother, Ingrid Bergman, won her third Oscar exactly fifty years ago for a similarly small part in Murder on the Orient Express and her former lover David Lynch who directed her in Bue Velvet, has just died after being evacuated from the L.A. fires.

The film should also find itself in competition for Best Directing (Edward Berger), Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, and Costume Design.

A Complete Unknown which wasn’t released until Christmas Day and is still in theatres is likely to go to pay-per-view in late February and stream on Hulu in March following the pattern of other recent films from Searchlight Pictures.

Timothée Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan is seen as the strongest threat to Adrien Broidy’s quest for becoming a two-time Oscar winner with The Brutalist. It’s also a strong contender for nominations for Best Directing (James Mangold), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton as Pete Seeger), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Sound.

Wicked, which has probably been seen by more people than any of the likely nominees, has already been streamed and will be released on Blu-ray in early February. It’s expected to be nominated for Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, and Sound.

Anora which has been on pay-per-view and will have a Blu-ray Criterion Edition release in April, was an early favorite for Best Picture and Actress (Mikey Madison) but the uproarious sex comedy’s chances have been diminished especially after it lost both awards in the Musical or Comedy awards at the Golden Globes. The film is now considered to be an also-ran in Best Directing (Sean Baker), Supporting Actor (Yura Borisov), and Film Editing, but a win in Best Original Screenplay is still a possibility.

The horror comedy-drama, The Substance, is likely to pick up nominations for Best Actress (Demi Moore), Original Screenplay, and Makeup & Hairstyling. Moore is now considered the front-runner to win her category after her emotional acceptance speech at the Golden Globes where she won for Best Actress – Musical or Comedy. It’s already been streamed and is being released on Blu-ray today.

Dune: Part Two, which has been streamed and released on Blu-ray, will likely be nominated for Best Film Editing, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Sound.

A Real Pain, which is now streaming, will also be released on Blu-ray next week. The comedy about a pair of cousins on a tour of Poland is expected to win an Oscar for Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor and maybe one for Jesse Eisenberg for his screenplay.

Sing Sing, for which A24 has been roundly chastised for its poor release schedule, should have screened and been released on Blu-ray by now, but nothing has been announced. The film should see additional nominations for Best Actor (Colman Domingo), Supporting Actor (Clarence Maclin), and Adapted Screenplay.

Happy Viewing.