Contest: Summer Box Office Predictions

Welcome to Cinema Sight’s first ever contest! We are giving away DVDs and/or Blu-rays to the winners. Read on to find out more.

This is a 16-week contest where each week your predictions can earn you points with the highest point total declared winner.

Each week, on Thursday, we will post a call for entries. You will have until 5:00pm Central (U.S.) on Friday to post or edit your submissions for the contest. After that time, any changes will nullify your predictions for that week’s entry. However, if you miss out, you can still participate in the remaining weeks of the contest. Missing any number of weeks will not disqualify you. Points will be given out for correctly predicting as follows:

  1. Guess the #1 Film at the U.S. weekend box office – 1 Point
  2. Guess the highest grossing new release and how much it will make – 1 Point

AFTER you finish reading the rest of the rules, be sure to post your predictions for this week.

Both of the above will be based on the upcoming weekend box office from Friday through Sunday. For an example of the regular schedule, see below. Item 1 above could be either a holdover or a new release. The answer to item 2 above will always be the film you think will be the highest grossing new release even if you think a holdover will top the box office chart. Box office number predictions must be in whole-millions increments (no $35,000,001, $35,100,000 or similar predictions will be accepted). The point for item 2 will be given to the predictor whose number is closest to the Actual weekend total. For an example, see below. If no one correctly predicts the #1 film at the box office, no one will get a point for item 1. If no one correctly guesses the film that will be the top new release, no one will get a point for item 2 even if their gross prediction was closest (it was just for the wrong film).

We will be using boxofficemojo.com to verify results based on the Actual numbers released the following Monday afternoon. Estimates will not be used to determine winners.

One of the things we wanted to do with this contest is tie it in the Summer Box Office theme. To that end, the prizes will be selected from the 29 Summer Box Office winners of the last three decades. From 1980’s Empire Strikes Back through 2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Not all films are available in Blu-ray and not all films are available in Widescreen. For special notes on this, see the full list below.

After 16 weeks, the contestant with the highest total number of points (First Place) will win 2 DVD’s or Blu-rays of his or her choice. The second highest total number of points (Second Place) will win 1 DVD or Blu-ray of his or her choice.

In the event of a tie for the final prizes, ties will be broken as follows:

  1. The person with the highest number of points from predicting the gross of the highest grossing new release.
  2. If a tie persists, the winner will be selected based on the smallest margin between prediction and result of all point-yielding predictions.
  3. If there’s still a tie, I will give out two First Place prizes and no Second Place prize.

These DVD’s and/or Blu-rays will be selected from a set list of films. For a full list, see below. Where available, DVD’s and Blu-rays must be coded in the region of the world in which you live. DVD’s and Blu-rays will be purchased through Amazon.com and shipped to the winner from there. DVD’s and Blu-rays will be New, not Used, quality when available and will be selected based on the lowest available price. The selection of Collector’s Edition, Special Edition or Regular Edition will be at the sole discretion of Cinema Sight. DVD’s will be selected in Widescreen format unless specified by the winning contestant. Cinema Sight will cover shipping costs for standard, non-expedited shipping and will include Insurance if available. If a non-standard method is requested by the winner, the winner will be responsible for covering the shipping costs.

We would love to get pictures of the winners with their prizes if able, but this is not a requirement for participating in the contest.

Sample Schedule

  • Thursday, May 13: Call for Predictions for Round 1
  • Friday, May 14, 5:00pm: Deadline for Round 1 Predictions
  • Monday, May 17: Round 1 Results Posted

Point Awarding & Tie-Breaking Samples

Sample 1, April 23-25
Janet picks The Losers to win the weekend and that, as a new release, it will do so with $15 M
Charles picks The Back-Up Plan to win the weekend and that, as a new release, it will do so with $20 M
Humphrey picks How to Train Your Dragon as the #1 film for the weekend, but The Losers will be the top new release with $20 M

How to Train Your Dragon won the weekend, but The Back-Up Plan was the top new release with $12.2 M. Humphrey receives one point for picking the weekend’s #1 film. Charles gets the second point for picking The Back-Up Plan as the top grossing new release.

Sample 2, April 30-May 2
Janet picks A Nightmare on Elm Street to top the box office and that, as a new release, it will do so with $50 M
Charles picks A Nightmare on Elm Street to top the box office and that, as a new release, it will do so with $60 M
Humphrey picks A Nightmare on Elm Street to top the box office and that, as a new release, it will do so with $30 M

A Nightmare on Elm Street won the weekend with a final gross of $32.9 M. Janet, Charles and Humphrey each get 1 point for correctly predicting Elm Street to be the #1 film of the weekend. Humphrey gets the second point for being closest to $32.9 M.

Sample 3, May 7-9
Janet picks Iron Man to win the weekend and that, as a new release, it will do so with $150 M
Charles picks Iron Man to win the weekend and that, as a new release, it will do so with $200 M
Humphrey picks Iron Man to win the weekend and that, as a new release, it will do so with $100 M

Iron Man won the weekend with a final gross of $128.1 M. Janet, Charles and Humphrey each get 1 point for correctly predicting Iron Man to be the #1 film of the weekend. Janet gets the second point for being closest to $128.1 M.

Sample 4, Tie-Breaking
Final, 16-week point totals: Janet – 4G, 13T / Charles – 2G, 15T / Humphrey – 4G, 13T
Janet, Charles and Humphrey each have 17 points. We then compare their points from guessing the top grossing new release of the week. Janet and Humphrey each have four points from predicting the top new release and its gross. We then compare their proximity of grosses.

Janet: 1st Correct Gross Prediction – $20 M, actual gross $25 M; 2nd – $150 M, actual $170 M; 3rd – $50 M, actual $49 M; 4th – $120 M, $121.5 M. Total Predictions: $340 M, Total Actual: $365.5 M – Difference: $25.5 M
Charles: 1st Correct Gross Prediction: $50 M, actual gross $50.6 M; 2nd – $190 M, actual $200 M; 3rd – $62 M, actual $75.2 M; 4th – $97 M, actual $100 M. Total Predictions: $399 M, Total Actual: $425.8 – Difference: $26.8 M

Because Janet’s predictions were closer to the actual result by a smaller amount than Charles’ predictions (by $1.3 M), Janet wins.

Available DVD Selections

  • 1980: The Empire Strikes Back (available on DVD only)
  • 1981: Raiders of the Lost Ark (available on DVD only)
  • 1982: E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (available on DVD only)
  • 1983: Return of the Jedi (available on DVD only)
  • 1984: Ghostbusters (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1985: Back to the Future (available on DVD only)
  • 1986: Top Gun (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1987: Beverly Hills Cop II (available on DVD only)
  • 1988: Who Framed Roger Rabbit (available on DVD only)
  • 1989: Batman (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1990: Ghost (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1991: Terminator 2: Judgment Day (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1992: Batman Returns (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1993: Jurassic Park (available on DVD only)
  • 1994: Forrest Gump (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1995: Batman Forever (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1996: Independence Day (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1997: Men in Black (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 1998: Saving Private Ryan (available on DVD only)
  • 1999: The Phantom Menace (available on DVD only)
  • 2000: Mission: Impossible II (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 2001: Shrek (available on DVD and in Full Screen only)
  • 2002: Spider-Man (available on DVD only)
  • 2003: Finding Nemo (available on DVD only)
  • 2004: Shrek 2 (available on DVD only)
  • 2005: Revenge of the Sith (available on DVD only)
  • 2006: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 2007: Spider-Man 3 (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 2008: The Dark Knight (available on Blu-ray and DVD)
  • 2009: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (available on Blu-ray and DVD)

18 Comments

Add a Comment
  1. #1 movie: Iron Man 2
    Highest grossing new movie: Letters to Juliet, around $25 million

  2. 1. Iron Man 2
    2. Robin Hood $40 million

  3. I’m a bit confused, but I think I know what I’m doing.

    #1 Movie will be Iron Man 2
    The highest grossing new movie will be Robin Hood, with around $45 million

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