This weekend will have a few questions associated with it. 1) Can Bullet Train avoid a huge second weekend plunge and will that be enough to overcome a weak set of new releases? 2) Will Diane Keaton still be able to open a geriatric comedy at the top of the box office in spite of such a hackneyed premise? 3) Will the wide expansion of horror film Bodies Bodies Bodies be able to ride solid reviews to a number one finish? It’s hard to say what answers we’ll get as it’s just as possible that the opposite answers are true, but I suspect the answers are 1) Bullet Train will get a solid second-week hold, but it won’t be enough to top the box office. 2) Keaton is not going to have a good weekend as her film fails to appeal to the youth demographic, but it will still have modest support from Keaton fans and seniors. 3) The originality of the Bodies Bodies Bodies idea should be enough to boost it to the number one finish in a tight competition with Bullet Train.
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With the soft debut of DC League of Super Pets, the opportunity for Bullet Train to top the charts this weekend is high. It doesn’t need much. It’s nearest competition is Easter Sunday, which isn’t likely to do boffo business at the box office.
In spite of its clear inferiority, the DCEU films continue to do quite well at the box office. Whether this film is going to tie into the live-action films is currently unknown, but it’s sure to play at least decently well among audiences with young children and DC completists.
Only one new wide release and it’s Jordan Peele’s third feature film, Nope. The trailers give away the gimmick behind the film, which doesn’t make it as appealing as it should be, but Peele’s films have a certain appeal and that will mean it can do well at the box office? Can it beat the third weekend of Thor: Love and Thunder? It’s probable, especially since the film had a steep second-week drop of 68%. Jordan Peele’s two prior films, Get Out and Us opened to $33 million and $71 million respectively. Both of those numbers would likely win out the weekend. Both films topped out at $175 million, so this film will need to perform appreciably closer to that to be considered a hit.
When there’s a guaranteed blockbuster on release, there’s generally no competition. When there’s no defined box office leader, there are usually several release. There are three coming out wide this weekend, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and Where the Crawdads Sing. Mrs. Harris doesn’t seem like the kind of film that can be the weekend’s top new release, which puts the competition between the other two releases. Paws of Fury looks incredibly bad, but animated films are often box office strongmen even when bad, so it could top out. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest Where the Crawdads Sing could surprise. That said, I’m only about 39% confident of that, so take it with a grain of salt. Thor: Love and Thunder will undoubtedly have a second week at the top.
Thor: Love and Thunder is set to take the summer by storm. It’s poised to claim this weekend’s top spot, but will it do so enough to be the year’s biggest debut? It’s possible, though unlikely. I could even see it claiming less than $100 million.
While there are two features releasing this weekend, only one of them has box office potential and that’s the sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru. The Despicable Me franchise has proven very popular, especially thanks to its pint-sized yellow hench-creatures. None of the top four entries this weekend hitting $31 million, Minions is very likely to top the charge and could do so approaching a $100 million tally, which is what the first Minions film did even if it’s well above the highwater mark for the Despicable Me films.
After a disappointing opening for Lightyear, both of this week’s new releases have a shot at topping the charts with Elvis having a slight edge over The Black Phone. The former tackles the life story of a beloved musical icon. The latter is a horror film. In a sea of disappointing box office returns for horror films, it’s possible it could falter out of the gate. Then again, it looks to be more inventive than a lot of recent disappointments, so it could do well.
There will be no stopping Lightyear being the weekend’s top release even Jurassic World: Dominion in its second week will struggle to keep up.
The third week of Top Gun: Maverick takes on the first week of Jurassic World: Dominion. It isn’t really a contest as Universal’s still-popular dinosaur franchise should have little trouble topping $100 million in its opening frame. Both of its predecessors did, though the second was a drastic drop from the $200 million-plus the first Jurassic World opened to.
There’s nothing to keep Top Gun: Maverick from maintaining the top spot. While this week’s new release is going to top itself since it has no other competition, I could also imagine it placing outside the top ten.
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will be going down this weekend as Tom Cruise’s first new feature in four years rides the wave of sensational reviews to a box office-topping victory 36 years ago. That film spent a total of three non-consecutive weeks at the top of the box office, its first, fourth, and 19th weekends of release. That film topped out at $180.5 million, which is around $465 million in today’s dollars. Can this film perform comparably? It’s not likely, but anything is possible.
It will be interesting to see if the Downton Abbey sequel manages to take the number one slot off of Doctor Strange‘s hands in its third week. I suspect it probably won’t, but anything is possible.
Not terribly long ago, studios released one major box office contender a week and thanks to the pandemic that seems to be what we’re back to as we’ve seldom had more than one release a week. This week’s effort is Firestarter, a re-adaptation of an early Stephen King novel. I doubt that it can overcome the second week of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but it should do well enough to come in second.
There is no competition this weekend for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. Even if there were, there would be no competition for the certain number one film of the week.