UPDATED: JANUARY 24, 2025

With all of the major precursors out of the way, I’ve tried to put down my final predictions. I still have a couple of days to make changes but I’m almost entirely settled on this selections. These are ranked in the order I think their chances stand in. Read more of my thoughts in my Final Thoughts article posting on Thursday.

UPDATED: JANUARY 25, 2025

It didn’t take long for me to change my mind. It’s only in one category, though. Film Editing. You’ll find out more why on Thursday.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

AWARDS
4 3 – 2 – – 1 – – – – – –	Anora The Brutalist Emilia Pérez Dune: Part Two The Substance Wicked Conclave Death by Numbers I’m Not a Robot No Other Land A Real Pain Wander to Wonder The Wild Robot

Best Picture

• Anora – Neon (o-2/23) — Toss Up —
•  
• Conclave – Focus Features — Toss Up —
• The Brutalist – A24 — Toss Up —
• The Substance – MUBI — Spoiler —
• I’m Still Here – Sony Pictures Classics — Spoiler —
• A Complete Unknown – Searchlight — Spoiler —
• Wicked – Universal — Doubtful —
• Emilia Pérez – Netflix — Doubtful —
• Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. — Long Shot —
• Nickel Boys – MGM — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

• The Wild Robot – DreamWorks (o-4/11) — Toss Up —
•  
• Flow – Sideshow — Toss Up —
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Aardman Animation — Spoiler —
• Inside Out 2 – Pixar — Doubtful —
• Memoir of a Snail – IFC Films — Doubtful —

Best Directing

• Anora – Sean Baker (o-2/23) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Brutalist – Brady Corbet — Toss Up —
• The Substance – Coralie Fargeat — Toss Up —
• A Complete Unknown – James Mangold — Spoiler —
• Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (o-2/23) — Toss Up —
•  
• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown — Toss Up —
• Colman Domingo – Sing Sing — Spoiler —
• Ralph Fiennes – Conclave — Spoiler —
• Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice — Doubtful —

Best Actress

• Demi Moore – The Substance (o-1/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• Mikey Madison – Anora — Toss Up —
• Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here — Toss Up —
• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked — Doubtful —
• Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

• Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (o-1/20) — Guarantee —
•  
• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist — Spoiler —
• Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown — Spoiler —
• Yura Borisov – Anora — Spoiler —
• Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (o-1/20) — Certain —
•  
• Ariana Grande – Wicked — Spoiler —
• Isabella Rossellini – Conclave — Spoiler —
• Felicity Jones – The Brutalist — Doubtful —
• Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora – Sean Baker (o-10/20) — Likely —
•  
• A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg — Spoiler —
• The Substance – Coralie Fargeat — Spoiler —
• The Brutalist – Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold — Doubtful —
• September 5. – Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave – Peter Straughan (o-2/16) — Likely —
•  
• Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes — Spoiler —
• A Complete Unknown – James Mangold, Jay Cocks — Spoiler —
• Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard — Doubtful —
• Sing Sing – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfield — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

• El Mal – Emilia Pérez (o-1/20) — Likely —
•  
• The Journey – The Six Triple Eight — Spoiler —
• Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late — Spoiler —
• Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez — Doubtful —
• Like a Bird – Sing Sing — Doubtful —

Best Original Score

• The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg (o-2/16) — Toss Up —
•  
• Emilia Pérez – Camille, Clément Ducol — Toss Up —
• The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers — Toss Up —
• Conclave – Volker Bertelmann — Spoiler —
• Wicked – John Powell, Stephen Schwartz — Spoiler —

Best Editing

• Conclave – Nick Emerson (o-2/25) — Toss Up —
•  
• Anora – Sean Baker — Toss Up —
• The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó — Toss Up —
• Emilia Pérez – Juliette Welfling — Spoiler —
• Wicked – Myron Kerstein — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• The Brutalist – Lol Crawley (o-2/23) — Toss Up —
•  
• Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke — Toss Up —
• Maria – Edward Lachman — Spoiler —
• Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser — Spoiler —
• Emilia Pérez – Paul Guilhaume — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• Wicked – Nathan Crowley; Lee Sandales (o-2/16) — Likely —
•  
• Nosferatu – Craig Lathrop; Beatrice Brentnerova — Spoiler —
• The Brutalist – Judy Becker; Patricia Cuccio, Mercédesz Nagyváradi — Spoiler —
• Dune: Part Two – Patrice Vermette — Doubtful —
• Conclave – Suzie Davies — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• Wicked – Paul Tazewell (o-4/11) — Guarantee —
•  
• Nosferatu – Linda Muir — Spoiler —
• Conclave – Lisy Christl — Spoiler —
• Gladiator II – Janty Yates — Doubtful —
• A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• The Substance (o-2/19) — Guarantee —
•  
• Nosferatu — Spoiler —
• A Different Man — Spoiler —
• Wicked — Spoiler —
• Emilia Pérez — Doubtful —

Best Sound

• Dune: Part Two (o-4/11) — Likely —
•  
• A Complete Unknown — Spoiler —
• Wicked — Spoiler —
• Emilia Pérez — Doubtful —
• The Wild Robot — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

• Dune: Part Two (o-4/11) — Toss Up —
•  
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes — Toss Up —
• Better Man — Doubtful —
• Alien: Romulus — Doubtful —
• Wicked — Doubtful —

Best International Feature Film

• Emilia Pérez (o-12/17) — Toss Up —
•  
• I’m Still Here — Toss Up —
• Flow — Spoiler —
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig — Doubtful —
• The Girl with the Needle — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Feature

• No Other Land (o-2/23) — Likely —
•  
• Porcelain War — Spoiler —
• Sugarcane — Spoiler —
• Black Box Diaries — Spoiler —
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Death by Numbers (o-1/23) — Toss Up —
•  
• I Am Ready, Warden — Toss Up —
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra — Toss Up —
• Instruments of a Beating Heart — Spoiler —
• Incident — Doubtful —

Best Animated Short Film

• Wander to Wonder (o-1/23) — Likely —
•  
• Yuck! — Spoiler —
• In the Shadow of the Cypress — Spoiler —
• Magic Candies — Spoiler —
• Beautiful Men — Doubtful —

Best Live Action Short Film

• I’m Not a Robot (o-2/9) — Toss Up —
•  
• A Lien — Toss Up —
• The Last Ranger — Spoiler —
• Anuja — Spoiler —
• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent — Spoiler —

NEW: JANUARY 23, 2025

There’s not a lot to say about my first predictions but with the way the nominations shook out, the winners seem less certain in some places and more firm in others.