Looking at Film from Every Angle

97th Academy Awards (2024): The Hopefuls

UPDATED: January 20, 2025

So many races are still in flux with Best Supporting Actress being the hardest to nail down. It’s likely to be the nailbiter of the year. Still many things aren’t in flux and yet I made a lot of changes. I weighed guild selections, overall number of precursors, and BAFTA citations. We’ll see how things go in a few days.

Lock: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Near Lock: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Good: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Borderline: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the locks, near locks and goods above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “borderline” description.
Doubtful: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

Everything from Best Picture down through Best Documentary Feature have been placed in the order from most to least likely to be nominated. This year, I don’t have much confidence in the order presented as things are very fluid this year.

NOMINATIONS /		AWARDS
Conclave Emilia Pérez The Brutalist Dune: Part Two Wicked Anora A Complete Unknown Sing Sing The Substance Challengers Nosferatu A Real Pain The Wild Robot	10 — 9 8 – 7 – 5 – 4 – 3 –	Dune: Part Two Emilia Pérez A Complete Unknown A Real Pain Once Upon a Time in Ukraine Origami Sugarcane The Ice Cream Man The Wild Robot Wicked	4 3 2 1 – – – – – –

Best Picture

The Brutalist – A24 (c-9/17, n-9/17, o-12/15) — Lock —
Anora – Neon (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Lock —
Conclave – Focus Features (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
A Complete Unknown – Searchlight (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
Emilia Pérez – Netflix (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
The Substance – MUBI (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Wicked – Universal (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Sing Sing – A24 (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
A Real Pain – Searchlight (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Nickel Boys – MGM (c-4/11) — Borderline —
September 5 – Paramount (c-10/17) — Borderline —
Challengers – MGM (c-12/15) — Borderline —
The Piano Lesson – Netflix (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Juror #2 – Warner Bros. (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Netflix (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Bleecker Street (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Animated Feature

The Wild Robot – DreamWorks (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Lock —
Flow – Sideshow (c-10/20, n-10/20) — Lock —
Inside Out 2 – Pixar (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Aardman Animation (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Near Lock —
Memoir of a Snail – IFC Films (c-7/21, n-12/15) — Good —
Kensuke’s Kingdom – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Kung Fu Panda 4 – DreamWorks (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Moana 2 – Disney (c-4/11) — Borderline —
That Christmas – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Transformers One – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Mars Express – GKIDS (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Look Back – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Chicken for Linda! – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Despicable Me 4 – Illumination (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Ultraman: Rising – TBD (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Piece by Piece – Focus Features (c-6/16) — Borderline —
Art College 1994 – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Captain Avispa – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Colors Within – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Garfield Movie – Columbia Pictures (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Ghost Cat Anzu – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Glassworker – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Imaginary – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Living Large – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim – Warner Bros. (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Rocket Club: Across the Cosmos – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Sirocco and the Kingdom of Winds – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Spellbound – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Sultana’s Dream – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Thelma the Unicorn – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Animated Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The fifteen films separated at the bottom are not organized in order of likelihood as they are unlikely to get nominated anyway.

Best Directing

The Brutalist – Brady Corbet (c-9/17, n-9/17, o-12/15) — Near Lock —
Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Near Lock —
Conclave – Edward Berger (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold (c-4/11) — Borderline —
All We Imagine as Light – Payal Kapadia (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked – Jon M. Chu (c-4/11) — Borderline —
September 5 – Tim Fehlbaum (c-10/17) — Borderline —
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Mike Leigh (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Juror #2 – Clint Eastwood (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Pablo Larraín (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-5/19) — Near Lock —
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-11/19) — Lock —
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (c-4/11, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Near Lock —
Daniel Craig – Queer (c-4/11, n-9/17) — Borderline —
Sebastian Stan – A Different Man (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Hugh Grant – Heretic (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (c-10/17) — Doubtful —
John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Keith Kupferer – Ghostlight (c-12/15) — Doubtful —

Best Actress

Demi Moore – The Substance (c-10/20, n-12/15, o-1/20) — Near Lock —
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Mikey Madison – Anora (c-7/21, n-9/17) — Good —
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (c-10/20, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (c-1/20) — Borderline —
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Angelina Jolie – Maria (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (c-9/17) — Borderline —
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (c-9/17) — Doubtful —
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (c-9/17) — Doubtful —
Kate Winslet – Lee (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (c-4/11, n-12/15, o-1/20) — Lock —
Yura Borisov – Anora (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Good —
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-11/19) — Borderline —
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (c-4/11, n-10/20) — Borderline —
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Stanley Tucci – Conclave (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Jonathan Bailey – Wicked (c-1/8) — Borderline —
Adam Pearson – A Different Man (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (c-7/21, n-10/20, o-1/20) — Near Lock —
Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (c-1/8, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (c-1/8) — Borderline —
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Margaret Qualley – The Substance (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (c-7/21) — Borderline —
Joan Chen – Dìdi (c-12/15) — Doubtful —
Carol Kane – Between the Temples (c-12/15) — Doubtful —
Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (c-12/15) — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21, o-10/20) — Near Lock —
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Near Lock —
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (c-9/17, n-9/17) — Near Lock —
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat (c-10/20, n-12/15) — Good —
Challengers – Justin Kuritzkes (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
September 5 – Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum (c-10/17) — Borderline —
Hard Truths – Mike Leigh (c-4/11) — Borderline —
His Three Daughters – Azazel Jacobs (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Saturday Night – Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman (c-10/20) — Doubtful —
Blitz – Steve McQueen (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Steven Knight (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown – James Mangold, Jay Cocks (c-4/11, n-1/20, o-1/20) — Good —
Conclave – Peter Straughan (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard (c-10/20, n-10/20) — Good —
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Sing Sing – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfield (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked – Winnie Holzman (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Wild Robot – Chris Sanders (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Robert Eggers (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington, Virgil Williams (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

El Mal – Emilia Pérez (c-11/19, n-12/17, o-1/20) — Lock —
Compress/Repress – Challengers (c-12/17, n-1/20) — Near Lock —
Kiss the Sky – The Wild Robot (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Good —
Like a Bird – Sing Sing (c-12/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
The Journey – The Six Triple Eight (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Sick in the Head – Kneecap (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Harper and Will Go West – Will & Harper (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Forbidden Road – Better Man (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Beyond – Moana 2 (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Never Too Late – Elton John: Never Too Late (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Winter Coat – Blitz (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Out of Oklahoma – Twisters (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Piece by Piece – Piece by Piece (c-6/16) — Doubtful —
Tell Me It’s You – Mufasa: The Lion King (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

All of the Songs listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Score

Emilia Pérez – Camille, Clément Ducol (c-11/19, n-11/19, o-12/15) — Good —
The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg (c-9/17, n-12/15) — Borderline —
The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers (c-10/22, n-10/22) — Borderline —
Conclave – Volker Bertelmann (c-4/11, n-8/20) — Borderline —
Challengers – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Robin Carolan (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Harry Gregson-Williams (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Room Next Door – Alberto Iglesias (c-9/17) — Borderline —
Wicked – John Powell, Stephen Schwartz (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Sing Sing – Bryce Dessner (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Danny Elfman (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Blitz – Hans Zimmer (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Alien: Romulus – Benjamin Wallfisch (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Inside Out 2 – Andrea Datzman (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 – John Debney (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
The Six Triple Eight – Aaron Zigman (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Young Woman and the Sea – Amelia Warner (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
The Fire Inside – Tamar-kali (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Babygirl – Cristobal Tapia de Veer (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
Blink Twice – Chanda Dancy (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

All of the Scores listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Film Editing

Dune: Part Two – Joe Walker (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-1/20) — Good —
Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21) — Good —
Challengers – Marco Costa (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez – Juliette Welfling (c-12/15, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Conclave – Nick Emerson (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó (c-9/17) — Borderline —
Civil War – Jake Roberts (c-12/15) — Borderline —
The Substance – Jérôme Eltabet, Coralie Fargeat, Valentin Féron (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Margaret Sixel (c-4/11) — Borderline —
September 5 – Hansjörg Weißbrich (c-10/17) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – Andrew Buckland, Scott Morris (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked – Myron Kerstein (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
A Real Pain – Robert Nassau (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Nosferatu – Louise Ford (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Nickel Boys – Nicholas Monsour (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Maria – Sofía Subercaseaux (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Tania Reddin (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-1/20) — Good —
The Brutalist – Lol Crawley (c-9/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Conclave – Stéphane Fontaine (c-4/11, n-10/20) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – Phedon Papamichael (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Wicked – Alice Brooks (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Maria – Edward Lachman (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Nickel Boys – Jomo Fray (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Substance – Benjamin Kračun (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Simon Duggan (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Challengers – Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (c-12/15) — Doubtful —
Blitz – Yorick Le Saux (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Gladiator II – John Mathieson (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Hard Truths – Dick Pope (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

The Brutalist – Judy Becker; Patricia Cuccio, Mercédesz Nagyváradi (c-9/17, n-12/15, o-1/20) — Near Lock —
Dune: Part Two – Patrice Vermette (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Lock —
Wicked – Nathan Crowley; Lee Sandales (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Near Lock —
Conclave – Suzie Davies (c-4/11, n-10/20) — Borderline —
Nosferatu – Craig Lathrop; Beatrice Brentnerova (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
The Substance – Stanislas Reydelle; Cécilia Blom (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Mark Scruton; David Morison (c-4/11) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – François Audouy; Regina Graves (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Arthur Max; Jille Azis, Elli Griff (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Blitz – Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Alien: Romulus – Naaman Marshal; Zsuzsanna Sipos (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
Megalopolis – Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin; Lisa K. Sessions (c-4/11) — Doubtful —
The Piano Lesson – David J. Bomba; Patrick Cassidy (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

Wicked – Paul Tazewell (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Lock —
Nosferatu – Linda Muir (c-4/11, n-11/19) — Borderline —
Conclave – Lisy Christl (c-4/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
Dune: Part Two – Jacqueline West (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Maria – Massimo Cantini Parrini (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Blitz – Jacqueline Durran (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Jenny Beavan (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Colleen Atwood (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Last Showgirl – Jacqueline Getty (c-12/15) — Borderline —
Gladiator II – Janty Yates (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Brutalist – Kate Forbes (c-9/17) — Doubtful —
The Piano Lesson – Francine Jamison-Tanchuk (c-4/11) — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

A Different Man (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-1/20) — Good —
Nosferatu (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Good —
Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Wicked (c-4/11, n-5/19) — Borderline —
The Substance (c-12/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Maria (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Apprentice (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Waltzing with Brando (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound

Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Near Lock —
Wicked (c-4/11, n-5/19) — Good —
Gladiator II (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
A Complete Unknown (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Emilia Pérez (c-11/19, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Blitz (c-4/11) — borderline —
Alien: Romulus (c-4/11) — Borderline —
The Wild Robot (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Deadpool & Wolverine (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Joker: Folie à Deux (c-12/17) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Sound branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Visual Effects

Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11) — Lock —
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (c-4/11, n-11/19) — Good —
Better Man (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Good —
Wicked (c-4/11, n-4/11) — Borderline —
Gladiator II (c-4/11, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Mufasa: The Lion King (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Twisters (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Civil War (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Deadpool & Wolverine (c-4/11) — Borderline —
Alien: Romulus (c-4/11) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best International Feature Film

Emilia Pérez – France (c-11/21, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Lock —
The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Good —
I’m Still Here – Brazil (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Borderline —
The Girl with the Needle – Denmark (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Kneecap – Ireland (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Flow – Latvia (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Vermiglio – Italy (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Dahomey – Senegal (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Armand – Norway (c-11/21) — Borderline —
From Ground Zero – Palestine (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Santosh – United Kingdom (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Waves – Czech Republic (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies – Thailand (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Universal Language – Canada (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Touch – Iceland (c-11/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Foreign Language Film branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

12.12: The Day – South Korea (c-11/21)
8 Views of Lake Biwa – Estonia (c-11/21)
Abang Adik – Malaysia (c-11/21)
Aire Just Breathe – Dominican Republic (c-11/21)
Algiers – Algeria (c-11/21)
And So It Begins – Philippines (c-11/21)
The Antique – Georgia (c-11/21)
Arzé – Lebanon (c-11/21)
Back to Life – Venezuela (c-11/21)
Baghdad Messi – Iraq (c-11/21)
Bauryna Salu – Kazakhstan (c-11/21)
Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day – Croatia (c-11/21)
Behind the Mist – Ecuador (c-11/21)
Castillo – Malta (c-11/21)
Cloud – Japan (c-11/21)
Come Closer – Israel (c-11/21)
The Devil’s Bath – Austria (c-11/21)
Drowning Dry – Lithuania (c-11/21)
Everybody Loves Touda – Morocco (c-11/21)
Family Therapy – Slovenia (c-11/21)
Family Time – Finland (c-11/21)
Flight 404 – Egypt (c-11/21)
The Glassworker – Pakistan (c-11/21)
Grand Tour – Portugal (c-11/21)
The Hungarian Dressmaker – Slovakia (c-11/21)
If Only I Could Hibernate – Mongolia (c-11/21)
In Her Place – Chile (c-11/21)
In the Arms of the Tree – Iran (c-11/21)
Julie Keeps Quiet – Belgium (c-11/21)
Kill the Jockey – Argentina (c-11/21)
Kismet – Cameroon (c-11/21)
The Last Journey – Sweden (c-11/21)
The Last Ones – Paraguay (c-11/21)
Life – Turkey (c-11/21)
Lost Ladies – India (c-11/21)
La Luna – Singapore (c-11/21)
Mai Martaba – Nigeria (c-11/21)
Meeting with Pol Pot – Cambodia (c-11/21)
Melody – Tajikistan (c-11/21)
Memories of a Burning Body – Costa Rica (c-11/21)
Memory Lane – Netherlands (c-11/21)
Murderess – Greece (c-11/21)
My Late Summer – Bosnia and Herzegovina (c-11/21)
Nawi – Kenya (c-11/21)
Old Fox – Taiwan (c-11/21)
Old Righteous Blues – South Africa (c-11/21)
Own Hand – Bolivia (c-11/21)
La Palisiada – Ukraine (c-11/21)
Paradise at Mother’s Feet – Kyrgyzstan (c-11/21)
Peach Blossom, Pho and Piano – Vietnam (c-11/21)
Queens – Switzerland (c-11/21)
Rita – Guatemala (c-11/21)
Russian Consul – Serbia (c-11/21)
Saturn Return – Spain (c-11/21)
Semmelweis – Hungary (c-11/21)
Shambhala – Nepal (c-11/21)
Sujo – Mexico (c-11/21)
Supermarket – Montenegro (c-11/21)
La Suprema – Colombia (c-11/21)
Take My Breath – Tunisia (c-11/21)
Three Kilometres to the End of the World – Romania (c-11/21)
Triumph – Bulgaria (c-11/21)
Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In – Hong Kong (c-11/21)
Under the Volcano – Poland (c-11/21)
Wake Up Mom – Panama (c-11/21)
Waterdrop – Albania (c-11/21)
Women from Rote Island – Indonesia (c-11/21)
The Wrestler – Bangladesh (c-11/21)
Yana-Wara – Peru (c-11/21)
Yasha and Leonid Brezhnev – Armenia (c-11/21)

Best Documentary Feature

Sugarcane (c-11/21, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Good —
Daughters (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Good —
Will & Harper (c-11/21, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Dahomey (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Borderline —
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (c-11/21, n-12/17) — Borderline —
No Other Land (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Black Box Diaries (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Porcelain War (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Frida (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (c-11/21) — Borderline —
The Bibi Files (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Eno (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Queendom (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Union (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Hollywoodgate (c-11/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Documentary Features listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

1489 (c-11/21)
2073 (c-11/21)
500 Days in the Wild (c-11/21)
64 Days – The Insurrection Playbook (c-11/21)
Adrianne & the Castle (c-11/21)
After the Rain: Putin’s Stolen Children Come Home (c-11/21)
Agent of Happiness (c-11/21)
Am I Racist? (c-11/21)
America’s Burning (c-11/21)
American Cats: The Good, the Bad & the Cuddly (c-11/21)
Americans with No Address (c-11/21)
And So It Begins (c-11/21)
At the Door of the House Who Will Come Knocking (c-11/21)
Bad Actor: A Hollywood Ponzi Scheme (c-11/21)
Bad Faith (c-11/21)
Bad River (c-11/21)
Behind the Mist (c-11/21)
Black Girls (c-11/21)
Blind Spot (c-11/21)
Blink (c-11/21)
Bob Mackie: Naked Illusion (c-11/21)
The Body Politic (c-11/21)
Bread & Roses (c-11/21)
Brief Tender Light (c-11/21)
Carol Doda Topless at the Condor (c-11/21)
Carville: Winning Is Everything, Stupid (c-11/21)
¡ Casa Bonita Mi Amor! (c-11/21)
Catching Fire: The Story of Anita Pallenberg (c-11/21)
Celebrating Laughter, The Life and Films of Colin Higgins (c-11/21)
The Commandant’s Shadow (c-11/21)
Copa 71 (c-11/21)
The Cowboy and the Queen (c-11/21)
Death without Mercy (c-11/21)
Einhundertvier (c-11/21)
Elton John: Never Too Late (c-11/21)
Ernest Cole: Lost and Found (c-11/21)
Escape from Extinction Rewilding (c-11/21)
Every Little Thing (c-11/21)
The Fabulous Gold Harvesting Machine (c-11/21)
Farming the Revolution (c-11/21)
Favoriten (c-11/21)
Federer: Twelve Final Days (c-11/21)
Fighting Spirit: A Combat Chaplain’s Journey (c-11/21)
The Flats (c-11/21)
Flipside (c-11/21)
Following Harry (c-11/21)
Food and Country (c-11/21)
Food, Inc. 2 (c-11/21)
Forgetting the Many: The Royal Pardon of Alan Turing (c-11/21)
Frank Miller: American Genius (c-11/21)
From Ground Zero (c-11/21)
Gaucho Gaucho (c-11/21)
Girls State (c-11/21)
God & Country (c-11/21)
Gonzo for Democracy (c-11/21)
The Grab (c-11/21)
The Greatest Night in Pop (c-11/21)
Happy Campers (c-11/21)
Happy Clothes: A Film about Patricia Field (c-11/21)
Hidden Master: The Legacy of George Platt Lynes (c-11/21)
Homegrown (c-11/21)
How to Come Alive with Norman Mailer (c-11/21)
Hummingbirds (c-11/21)
I Am: Celine Dion (c-11/21)
I Can’t Breathe (c-11/21)
In Between Stars and Scars: Masters of Cinema (c-11/21)
Indigo Girls: It’s Only Life After All (c-11/21)
Intercepted (c-11/21)
Invisible Nation (c-11/21)
It Happened on Our Ground (c-11/21)
Jewel of the Desert (c-11/21)
Jim Henson Idea Man (c-11/21)
Join or Die (c-11/21)
Just a Bit Outside: The Story of the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers (c-11/21)
King of Kings: Chasing Edward Jones (c-11/21)
Kiss the Future (c-11/21)
The Landscape and the Fury (c-11/21)
The Last Journey (c-11/21)
The Last of Sea Women (c-11/21)
The Last Ones (c-11/21)
Leap of Faith (c-11/21)
Left Behind (c-11/21)
Legacy: The De-Colonized History of South Africa (c-11/21)
Look into My Eyes (c-11/21)
Lost Angel: The Genius of Judee Sill (c-11/21)
The Lost Legacy of Tony Gaudio (c-11/21)
Lovely Jackson (c-11/21)
Lover of Men, The Untold History of Abraham Lincoln (c-11/21)
Luther: Never Too Much (c-11/21)
Mad about the Boy – The Noel Coward Story (c-11/21)
Made in England: The Films of Powell and Pressburger (c-11/21)
Majority Rules (c-11/21)
Marching in the Dark (c-11/21)
Martha (c-11/21)
Maya and the Wave (c-11/21)
Mediha (c-11/21)
Merchant Ivory (c-11/21)
Mom & Dad’s Nipple Factory (c-11/21)
Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery (c-11/21)
Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa (c-11/21)
Music by John Williams (c-11/21)
My Sweet Land (c-11/21)
Natterer’s Treasure (c-11/21)
Never Look Away (c-11/21)
A New Kind of Wilderness (c-11/21)
New Wave (c-11/21)
No One Asked You (c-11/21)
Nocturnes (c-11/21)
Nurse Unseen (c-11/21)
October H8te: The Fight for the Soul of America (c-11/21)
Of Color and Ink (c-11/21)
One Person, One Vote? (c-11/21)
One with the Whale (c-11/21)
Ozogoche (c-11/21)
Patrice: The Movie (c-11/21)
A Photographic Memory (c-11/21)
Piece by Piece (c-11/21)
Power (c-11/21)
Ray of Hope (c-11/21)
Remembering Gene Wilder (c-11/21)
Resurgo Detroit: The Rise from Within (c-11/21)
Resynator (c-11/21)
Sabbath Queen (c-11/21)
Samuel: Hollywood vs Hollywood (c-11/21)
Seeking Mavis Beacon (c-11/21)
Separated (c-11/21)
She Rises Up (c-11/21)
The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru (c-11/21)
The Sixth (c-11/21)
Skywalkers: A Love Story (c-11/21)
Sorry/Not Sorry (c-11/21)
State Organs: Unmasking Transplant Abuse in China (c-11/21)
Stolen Time (c-11/21)
Stripped for Parts: American Journalism on the Brink (c-11/21)
Studio One Forever (c-11/21)
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (c-11/21)
Sweetheart Deal (c-11/21)
Taking Venice (c-11/21)
The Taste of Mango (c-11/21)
The Tuba Thieves (c-11/21)
Uncropped (c-11/21)
Unfightable (c-11/21)
Veselka: The Rainbow on the Corner at the Center of the World (c-11/21)
Vigilantes Inc.: America’s New Vote Suppression Hitmen (c-11/21)
War Game (c-11/21)
We Will Dance Again (c-11/21)
Welcome to Babel (c-11/21)
Whale Restaurant (c-11/21)
Who’s Afraid of Nathan Law? (c-11/21)
William Shatner: You Can Call Me Bill (c-11/21)
The World According to Allee Willis (c-11/21)
The World Is Family (c-11/21)
Yintah (c-11/21)
Zurawski v Texas (c-11/21)

Best Documentary Short Subject

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Borderline —
Chasing Roo (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Death by Numbers (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Keeper (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Seat 31: Zooey Zephyr (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Eternal Father (c-12/17) — Borderline —
I Am Ready, Warden (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Incident (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Instruments of a Beating Heart (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Planetwalker (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Quilters (c-12/17) — Borderline —
A Swim Lesson (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Until He’s Back (c-12/17) — Borderline —

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

Origami (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Borderline —
Au Revoir Mon Monde (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Bottle George (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Maybe Elephants (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Wander to Wonder (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
The 21 (c-12/17) — Borderline —
A Bear Named Wojtek (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Beautiful Men (c-12/17) — Borderline —
A Crab in a Pool (c-12/17) — Borderline —
In the Shadow of the Cypress (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Magic Candies (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Me (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Percebes (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Wild-Tempered Clavier (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Yuck! (c-12/17) — Borderline —

All of the Animated Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

The Ice Cream Man (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17) — Borderline —
Anuja (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Crust (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
A Lien (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
An Orange from Jaffa (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
Clodagh (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Compatriot (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Dovecote (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Edge of Space (c-12/17) — Borderline —
I’m Not a Robot (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Last Ranger (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (c-12/17) — Borderline —
The Masterpiece (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Paris 70 (c-12/17) — Borderline —
Room Taken (c-12/17) — Borderline —

All of the Live Action Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

NEW: April 16, 2024

We start things off with a surprisingly tumultuous list. There aren’t a lot of films that are guaranteed for a 2024 release, so some of these films will eventually disappear. As always, these are extremely early predictions, so don’t put too much faith in them as yet.

UPDATED: May 19, 2024

Not a lot of changes as yet. I remain bearish on Megalopolis even though it divided critics at Cannes. I’ve decreased its chances in some places but have overall left it unchanged. Added in Long Day’s Journey Into Night and eliminated a handful of potential contenders. Nothing outlandish this time.

UPDATED: June 18, 2024

Very little movement this month with the biggest change being Megalopolis taking a bit of a dive but few other changes.

UPDATED: July 21, 2024

Megalopolis completed its descent from my predictions list while Anora, Here, and The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (among others) make their debuts. I’m now not as certain that Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse will release this year, so its chances are dwindling, though not gone. Horizon collapsed while The Bikeriders became a box office dud. My predictions for winners have not changed but might once the dust of the season begins to settle. There’s still a lot of volatility and in the next two months, we’ll see a handful of changes, but this is where I’m at currently.

UPDATED: August 20, 2024

Not a lot of big changes this month as we wait for Venice/Telluride/Toronto at the end of this month, beginning of next. I finally pulled Spider-Man out of the list since it’s clear it isn’t coming out this year as they haven’t released any trailers or set a release date and that’s a sure sign a big film like that isn’t coming out this year. Beyond that, just a few other minor changes and we’re good to go.

UPDATED: September 17, 2024

With the big three festivals now done, some new films have entered the conversation. The Brutalist, The Room Next Door, and The Life of Chuck being the most significant. Hardly anyone was talking about Chuck until it won the audience award at Toronto, which is a sign of a potential Oscar contender. However, the film just doesn’t feel like an Oscar player. That’s especially true when you consider all the heavy contenders this year. It’s possible it could still make the final slate as most such winners do but I’m not convinced it can do so yet. The Brutalist seems like one of those films that everyone talks about but not everyone votes for. It gets nominations but isn’t beloved enough to win. The Room Next Door, on the other hand, is probably now your winner for Best Actress and Almodóvar has already proved he can win awards and that was before the Academy became more receptive to international features (even though this is an English-language feature, his first to be exact). So they are much more willing to recognize foreign talent. Beyond that, The Piano Lesson and Here took the biggest hits on my list, not that Here was a festival entry, it’s just been such a non-entity buzz wise, that it will struggle without that festival exposure. Piano Lesson, on the other hand, did have a festival bow and while it got good reviews, so did Nickel Boys and the latter seemed to get more raves than the former. Things can still shake out differently. It is only September so we’ve still got 3 months for things to firm up but we are well on our way.

UPDATED: October 20, 2024

The big festivals are over and although there are still some films unseen (Here, Juror #2, Wicked), many have been seen, at least somewhat (Gladiator II was screened but not for film critics, which isn’t a good sign), and others will only benefit from a critics’ prizes boost. I removed several films from the lists and made several changes. I tried to fix some oversights that I hadn’t caught before (I can’t believe I hadn’t gotten Demi Moore listed until now) but for this point in time, I’m feeling good about 80% of these.

(10/22/24 Addendum: Dune: Part Two was declared ineligible for Original Score. Replaced with The Wild Robot for a nomination and Blitz for the win.)

UPDATED: November 19, 2024

Most of the last few films that remain unseen are now in the hands of critics and of them, Gladiator II seems to have lost the most. It has been relegated to lower categories only with a few nods still potential if another film falters with critics. There are still a handful we don’t know enough about to make certain predictions: The Brutalist, Juror #2, and A Complete Unknown haven’t screened broadly (if at all in the latter case) so they remain question marks for now.

UPDATED: December 17, 2024

The critics’ prizes are giving us a preview of what may play well with the Academy but there are still many question marks. We also have the shortlists, so this is my first full list of nominations for the year. Wicked really picked up steam with its box office victory and the strong reviews while Blitz and Gladiator II faded into near-obscurity. Quite a few changes this go around with lots of new potential nominees added and quite a few hopeless prospects removed.