UPDATED: November 19, 2024

Most of the last few films that remain unseen are now in the hands of critics and of them, Gladiator II seems to have lost the most. It has been relegated to lower categories only with a few nods still potential if another film falters with critics. There are still a handful we don’t know enough about to make certain predictions: The Brutalist, Juror #2, and A Complete Unknown haven’t screened broadly (if at all in the latter case) so they remain question marks for now.

NOMINATIONS /		AWARDS
Conclave Wicked Blitz Dune: Part Two The Brutalist Anora The Room Next Door Emilia Pérez Maria Nosferatu September 5 The Nickel Boys	10 — 8 – 6 5 – 4 3 – – –	Conclave Dune: Part Two Wicked A Complete Unknown Blitz Nosferatu The Wild Robot	4 3 – 1 – – –

Best Picture

• Conclave – Focus Features (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-10/20)
•  
• Anora – Neon (c-7/21, n-7/21)
• Blitz – Apple TV+ (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• The Brutalist – A24 (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• Dune: Part Two – Warner Bros. (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Juror #2 – Warner Bros. (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• The Nickel Boys – MGM (c-4/11, n-9/17)
• The Room Next Door – Sony Pictures Classics (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• September 5 – Paramount (c-10/17, n-11/19)
• Wicked – Universal (c-4/11, n-4/11)
•  
• The Apprentice – Briarcliff (c-4/11)
• A Complete Unknown – Searchlight (c-4/11)
• The Fire Inside – MGM (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II – Paramount (c-4/11)
• Hard Truths – Bleecker Street (c-4/11)
• Maria – Netflix (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Lionsgate (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu – Focus Features (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson – Netflix (c-4/11)
• A Real Pain – Searchlight (c-4/11)
• We Live in Time – A24 (c-4/11)

Best Animated Feature

• The Wild Robot – DreamWorks (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Flow – Sideshow (c-10/20, n-10/20)
• Inside Out 2 – Pixar (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim – Warner Bros. (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Aardman Animation (c-7/21, n-7/21)
•  
• Despicable Me 4 – Illumination (c-4/11)
• The Garfield Movie – Columbia Pictures (c-4/11)
• Kung Fu Panda 4 – DreamWorks (c-4/11)
• Mars Express – GKIDS (c-4/11)
• Memoir of a Snail – IFC Films (c-7/21)
• Moana 2 – Disney (c-4/11)
• Piece by Piece – Focus Features (c-6/16)
•  

Best Directing

• Conclave – Edward Berger (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-10/20)
•  
• Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21)
• Blitz – Steve McQueen (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• The Brutalist – Brady Corbet (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• Wicked – Jon M. Chu (c-4/11, n-11/19)
•  
• A Complete Unknown – James Mangold (c-4/11)
• Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve (c-4/11)
• The Fire Inside – Rachel Morrison (c-4/11)
• Hard Truths – Mike Leigh (c-4/11)
• Here – Robert Zemeckis (c-7/21)
• Juror #2 – Clint Eastwood (c-4/11)
• Maria – Pablo Larraín (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Francis Ford Coppola (c-4/11)
• The Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu – Robert Eggers (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington (c-4/11)
• A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg (c-4/11)
• The Room Next Door – Pedro Almodóvar (c-9/17)
• September 5 – Tim Fehlbaum (c-10/17)

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-5/19)
•  
• Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-11/19)
• Daniel Craig – Queer (c-4/11, n-9/17)
• Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (c-4/11, n-5/19)
•  
• Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (c-4/11)
• Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time (c-4/11)
• Nicholas Hoult – Juror #2 (c-4/11)
• Paul Mescal – Gladiator II (c-4/11)
• Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (c-10/17)
• Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (c-4/11)
• Sebastian Stan – A Different Man (c-4/11)
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nosferatu (c-4/11)
• John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11)

Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-11/19)
•  
• Angelina Jolie – Maria (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Mikey Madison – Anora (c-7/21, n-9/17)
• Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (c-9/17, n-10/20)
• Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (c-9/17, n-9/17)
•  
• Ryan Destiny – The Fire Inside (c-4/11)
• Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (c-10/20)
• Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (c-4/11)
• Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (c-9/17)
• Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (c-9/17)
• Demi Moore – The Substance (c-10/20)
• Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (c-4/11)
• Kate Winslet – Lee (c-4/11)

Best Supporting Actor

• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (c-9/17, n-11/19, o-11/19)
•  
• Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• John Lithgow – Conclave (c-4/11, n-10/20)
• Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (c-4/11, n-10/20)
• Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (c-4/11, n-9/17)
•  
• Willem Dafoe – Nosferatu (c-4/11)
• Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (c-4/11)
• J.K. Simmons – Juror #2 (c-4/11)
• Bill Skarsgård – Nosferatu (c-4/11)
• Drew Starkey – Queer (c-4/11)
• Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (c-4/11)
• Stanley Tucci – Conclave (c-4/11)

Best Supporting Actress

• Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – The Nickel Boys (c-4/11, n-6/18)
• Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (c-7/21, n-10/20)
• Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (c-7/21, n-10/20)
•  
• Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (c-4/11)
• Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (c-4/11)
• Ariana Grande – Wicked (c-4/11)
• Lesley Manville – Queer (c-4/11)
• Aubrey Plaza – Megalopolis (c-4/11)
• Andrea Riseborough – Lee (c-4/11)

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21, o-10/20)
•  
• Blitz – Steve McQueen (c-4/11, n-11/19)
• The Brutalist – Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• Hard Truths – Mike Leigh (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• September 5 – Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum (c-10/17, n-10/20)
•  
• The Apprentice – Gabriel Sherman (c-4/11)
• A Complete Unknown – James Mangold, Jay Cocks (c-4/11)
• The Fire Inside – Barry Jenkins (c-4/11)
• His Three Daughters – Azazel Jacobs (c-4/11)
• Juror #2 – Jonathan Abrams (c-4/11)
• Kinds of Kindness – Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos (c-4/11)
• Maria – Steven Knight (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Francis Ford Coppola (c-4/11)
• A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg (c-4/11)
• Saturday Night – Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman (c-10/20)
• The Substance – Coralie Fargeat (c-10/20)
• We Live in Time – Nick Payne (c-4/11)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Conclave – Peter Straughan (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-10/20)
•  
• Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard (c-10/20, n-10/20)
• The Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• The Room Next Door – Pedro Almodóvar (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• Wicked – Winnie Holzman (c-4/11, n-11/19)
•  
• Dune: Part Two – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu – Robert Eggers (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson – Malcolm Washington, Virgil Williams (c-4/11)
• Queer – Justin Kuritzkes (c-4/11)

Best Original Song

• No Predictions Made Yet
•  
• TBD – Emilia Pérez (c-11/19)
• TBD – Moana 2 (c-4/11)
• TBD – Piece by Piece (c-6/16)
• TBD – Wicked (c-4/11)

Best Original Score

• Blitz – Hans Zimmer (c-4/11, n-6/18, o-10/22)
•  
• Conclave – Volker Bertelmann (c-4/11, n-8/20)
• Emilia Pérez – Camille, Clément Ducol (c-11/19, n-11/19)
• The Room Next Door – Alberto Iglesias (c-9/17, n-9/17)
• The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers (c-10/22, n-10/22)
•  
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Danny Elfman (c-4/11)
• The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg (c-9/17)
• Challengers – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-4/11)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Tom Holkenborg (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II – Harry Gregson-Williams (c-4/11)
• Inside Out 2 – Andrea Datzman (c-4/11)
• The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim – Stephen Gallagher (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Osvaldo Golijov, Grace VanderWaal (c-4/11)
• Moana 2 – Opetaia Foa’I, Mark Mancina (c-4/11)
• The Nickel Boys – Scott Alario, Alex Somers (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu – Robin Carolan (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson – Alexandre Desplat (c-4/11)
• Queer – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-4/11)
• September 5 – Lorenz Dangel (c-10/17)

Best Film Editing

• September 5 – Hansjörg Weißbrich (c-10/17, n-11/19, o-11/19)
•  
• Anora – Sean Baker (c-7/21, n-7/21)
• The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó (c-9/17, n-11/19)
• Conclave – Nick Emerson (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Dune: Part Two – Joe Walker (c-4/11, n-4/11)
•  
• Blitz – Peter Sciberras (c-4/11)
• A Complete Unknown – Andrew Buckland, Scott Morris (c-4/11)
• The Fire Inside – Harry Yoon (c-4/11)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Margaret Sixel (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II – Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson (c-4/11)
• Hard Truths – Tania Reddin (c-4/11)
• Maria – Sofía Subercaseaux (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Cam McLauchlin, Glen Scantlebury (c-4/11)
• The Nickel Boys – Nicholas Monsour (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu – Louise Ford (c-4/11)
• A Real Pain – Robert Nassau (c-4/11)
• The Room Next Door – Teresa Font (c-9/17)
• Wicked – Myron Kerstein (c-4/11)

Best Cinematography

• Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Blitz – Yorick Le Saux (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Conclave – Stéphane Fontaine (c-4/11, n-10/20)
• Maria – Edward Lachman (c-4/11, n-9/17)
• Wicked – Alice Brooks (c-4/11, n-11/19)
•  
• The Brutalist – Lol Crawley (c-9/17)
• A Complete Unknown – Phedon Papamichael (c-4/11)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Simon Duggan (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II – John Mathieson (c-4/11)
• Hard Truths – Dick Pope (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Mihai Malaimare Jr. (c-4/11)
• The Nickel Boys – Jomo Fray (c-4/11)
• Queer – Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (c-4/11)
• We Live in Time – Stuart Bentley (c-4/11)

Best Production Design

• Wicked – Nathan Crowley; TBD (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Blitz – Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Conclave – Suzie Davies (c-4/11, n-10/20)
• Dune: Part Two – Patrice Vermette (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Beth Mickle, Bradley Rubin; Lisa K. Sessions (c-4/11, n-4/11)
•  
• Alien: Romulus – Naaman Marshal; Zsuzsanna Sipos (c-4/11)
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Mark Scruton; David Morison (c-4/11)
• The Brutalist – Judy Becker; TBD (c-9/17)
• A Complete Unknown – François Audouy; Regina Graves (c-4/11)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II – Arthur Max; TBD (c-4/11)
• Here – Emma Goodwin; Anna Lynch-Robinson (c-7/21)
• Maria – Guy Hendrix Dyas; Sandro Piccarozzi (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu – Craig Lathrop; Beatrice Brentnerova (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson – David J. Bomba; Patrick Cassidy (c-4/11)

Best Costume Design

• Wicked – Paul Tazewell (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Blitz – Jacqueline Durran (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Dune: Part Two – Jacqueline West (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Maria – Massimo Cantini Parrini (c-4/11, n-11/19)
• Nosferatu – Linda Muir (c-4/11, n-11/19)
•  
• Alien: Romulus – Carlos Rosario (c-4/11)
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – Colleen Atwood (c-4/11)
• The Brutalist – Kate Forbes (c-9/17)
• A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips (c-4/11)
• Conclave – Lisy Christl (c-4/11)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – Jenny Beavan (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II – Janty Yates (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis – Milena Canonero (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson – Francine Jamison-Tanchuk (c-4/11)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Nosferatu (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Wicked (c-4/11, n-5/19)
•  
• Alien: Romulus (c-4/11)
• Blitz (c-4/11)
• Borderlands (c-4/11)
• The Brutalist (c-9/17)
• A Complete Unknown (c-4/11)
• Conclave (c-4/11)
• Deadpool and Wolverine (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II (c-4/11)
• Joker: Folie á Deux (c-4/11)
• Maria (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis (c-4/11)
• The Piano Lesson (c-4/11)

Best Sound

• Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Blitz (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Gladiator II (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Nosferatu (c-4/11, n-8/20)
• Wicked (c-4/11, n-5/19)
•  
• Alien: Romulus (c-4/11)
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (c-4/11)
• The Brutalist (c-9/17)
• Civil War (c-4/11)
• Deadpool and Wolverine (c-4/11)
• Emilia Pérez (c-11/19)
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (c-4/11)
• Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (c-4/11)
• Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (c-4/11)
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (c-4/11)
• Lee (c-4/11)
• Megalopolis (c-4/11)
• Twisters (c-4/11)

Best Visual Effects

• Dune: Part Two (c-4/11, n-4/11, o-4/11)
•  
• Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (c-4/11, n-11/19)
• Mufasa: The Lion King (c-4/11, n-4/11)
• Wicked (c-4/11, n-4/11)
•  
• Alien: Romulus (c-4/11)
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (c-4/11)
• Borderlands (c-4/11)
• Civil War (c-4/11)
• Deadpool and Wolverine (c-4/11)
• Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (c-4/11)
• Gladiator II (c-4/11)
• Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (c-4/11)
• Here (c-7/21)
• Megalopolis (c-4/11)
• Nosferatu (c-4/11)
• Twisters (c-4/11)

Best International Feature Film

• No Predictions Made Yet

Best Documentary Feature

• No Predictions Made Yet

Best Documentary Short Subject

• No Predictions Made Yet

Best Animated Short Film

• No Predictions Made Yet

Best Live Action Short Film

• No Predictions Made Yet

NEW: April 16, 2024

We start things off with a surprisingly tumultuous list. There aren’t a lot of films that are guaranteed for a 2024 release, so some of these films will eventually disappear. As always, these are extremely early predictions, so don’t put too much faith in them as yet.

UPDATED: May 19, 2024

Not a lot of changes as yet. I remain bearish on Megalopolis even though it divided critics at Cannes. I’ve decreased its chances in some places but have overall left it unchanged. Added in Long Day’s Journey Into Night and eliminated a handful of potential contenders. Nothing outlandish this time.

UPDATED: June 18, 2024

Very little movement this month with the biggest change being Megalopolis taking a bit of a dive but few other changes.

UPDATED: July 21, 2024

Megalopolis completed its descent from my predictions list while Anora, Here, and The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (among others) make their debuts. I’m now not as certain that Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse will release this year, so its chances are dwindling, though not gone. Horizon collapsed while The Bikeriders became a box office dud. My predictions for winners have not changed but might once the dust of the season begins to settle. There’s still a lot of volatility and in the next two months, we’ll see a handful of changes, but this is where I’m at currently.

UPDATED: August 20, 2024

Not a lot of big changes this month as we wait for Venice/Telluride/Toronto at the end of this month, beginning of next. I finally pulled Spider-Man out of the list since it’s clear it isn’t coming out this year as they haven’t released any trailers or set a release date and that’s a sure sign a big film like that isn’t coming out this year. Beyond that, just a few other minor changes and we’re good to go.

UPDATED: September 17, 2024

With the big three festivals now done, some new films have entered the conversation. The Brutalist, The Room Next Door, and The Life of Chuck being the most significant. Hardly anyone was talking about Chuck until it won the audience award at Toronto, which is a sign of a potential Oscar contender. However, the film just doesn’t feel like an Oscar player. That’s especially true when you consider all the heavy contenders this year. It’s possible it could still make the final slate as most such winners do but I’m not convinced it can do so yet. The Brutalist seems like one of those films that everyone talks about but not everyone votes for. It gets nominations but isn’t beloved enough to win. The Room Next Door, on the other hand, is probably now your winner for Best Actress and Almodóvar has already proved he can win awards and that was before the Academy became more receptive to international features (even though this is an English-language feature, his first to be exact). So they are much more willing to recognize foreign talent. Beyond that, The Piano Lesson and Here took the biggest hits on my list, not that Here was a festival entry, it’s just been such a non-entity buzz wise, that it will struggle without that festival exposure. Piano Lesson, on the other hand, did have a festival bow and while it got good reviews, so did Nickel Boys and the latter seemed to get more raves than the former. Things can still shake out differently. It is only September so we’ve still got 3 months for things to firm up but we are well on our way.

UPDATED: October 20, 2024

The big festivals are over and although there are still some films unseen (Here, Juror #2, Wicked), many have been seen, at least somewhat (Gladiator II was screened but not for film critics, which isn’t a good sign), and others will only benefit from a critics’ prizes boost. I removed several films from the lists and made several changes. I tried to fix some oversights that I hadn’t caught before (I can’t believe I hadn’t gotten Demi Moore listed until now) but for this point in time, I’m feeling good about 80% of these.

(10/22/24 Addendum: Dune: Part Two was declared ineligible for Original Score. Replaced with The Wild Robot for a nomination and Blitz for the win.)