Looking at Film from Every Angle

95th Academy Awards (2022): Winner Predictions

UPDATED: MARCH 6, 2023

Although I haven’t been updating this page, I have been updating my predictions not just as The Rundown series has progressed, but after each organization announced its winners. This is in full contemplation of all of those and is likely to be my final set of predictions this year. I’ll do another pass when putting together my final pre-Oscars article of the year, but I don’t anticipate many changes from this point forward.

LEGEND:
dWinner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

NEW: JANUARY 24, 2023

With the nominations announced, a few of my initial winner predictions weren’t nominated and a few needed to be replaced considering the nominations. That’s about all there is to say about it.

AWARDS
6 3 2 – 1 – – – – – – – – –	Everything Everywhere All at Once Elvis All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse Avatar: The Way of Water Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Navalny Le Pupille RRR Stranger at the Gate Top Gun: Maverick Women Talking

Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (o-1/20) — Likely —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Malte Grunert — Spoiler —
The Banshees of Inisherin – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh — Spoiler —
Top Gun: Maverick – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, Jerry Bruckheimer — Spoiler —
The Fabelmans – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner — Spoiler —
Tár – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, Scott Lambert — Spoiler —
Elvis – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss — Spoiler —
Women Talking – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand — Spoiler —
Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron, Jon Landau — Long Shot —
Triangle of Sadness – Erik Hemmendorff, Philippe Bober — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley (o-12/16) — Certain —
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey — Spoiler —
Turning Red – Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins — Spoiler —
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – Joel Crawford, Mark Swift — Doubtful —
The Sea Beast – Chris Williams, Jed Schlanger — Long Shot —

Best Directing

Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (o-1/24) — Likely —
The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg — Spoiler —
The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh — Spoiler —
Tár – Todd Field — Doubtful —
Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund — Long Shot —

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis (o-2/19) — Toss Up —
Brendan Fraser – The Whale — Toss Up —
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin — Toss Up —
Bill Nighy – Living — Spoiler —
Paul Mescal – Aftersun — Long Shot —

Best Actress

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (o-12/16) — Toss Up —
Cate Blanchett – Tár — Toss Up —
Ana de Armas – Blonde — Spoiler —
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie — Spoiler —
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (o-1/20) — Certain —
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin — Spoiler —
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin — Spoiler —
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans — Spoiler —
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (o-2/26) — Spoiler —
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Likely —
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin — Spoiler —
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once — Spoiler —
Hong Chau – The Whale — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh (o-12/16) — Toss Up —
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Dan Kwan, Daniel Scheinert — Toss Up —
Tár – Todd Field — Spoiler —
The Fabelmans – Tony Kushner — Spoiler —
Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking – Sarah Polley (o-1/24) — Toss Up —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell — Toss Up —
Living – Kazuo Ishiguro — Spoiler —
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson — Doubtful —
Top Gun: Maverick – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig, Justin Marks — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

Naatu Naatu – RRR (o-1/24) — Likely —
Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick — Spoiler —
Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Spoiler —
This Is a Life – Everything Everywhere All at Once — Doubtful —
Applause – Tell It Like a Woman — Doubtful —

Best Original Score

Babylon – Justin Hurwitz (o-1/20) — Toss Up —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Volker Bertelmann — Toss Up —
The Banshees of Inisherin – Carter Burwell — Toss Up —
The Fabelmans – John Williams — Spoiler —
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Son Lux — Spoiler —

Best Editing

Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers (o-12/16) — Likely —
Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton — Spoiler —
Elvis – Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond — Spoiler —
The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen — Doubtful —
Tár – Monika Willi — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend (o-1/24) — Toss Up —
Elvis – Mandy Walker — Toss Up —
Empire of Light – Roger Deakins — Spoiler —
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – Darius Khondji — Spoiler —
Tár – Florian Hoffmeister — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

Babylon – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino (o-1/20) — Toss Up —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper — Toss Up —
Elvis – Production Design: Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn — Spoiler —
Avatar: The Way of Water – Production Design: Dylan Cole, Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole — Spoiler —
The Fabelmans – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

Elvis – Catherine Martin (o-4/24) — Toss Up —
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Ruth Carter — Toss Up —
Babylon – Mary Zophres — Spoiler —
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – Jenny Beavan — Spoiler —
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Shirley Kurata — Spoiler —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Elvis – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti (o-3/6) — Toss Up —
The Whale – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley — Toss Up —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Heike Merker, Linda Eisenhamerová — Toss Up —
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Camille Friend, Joel Harlow — Spoiler —
The Batman – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, Mike Fontaine — Doubtful —

Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor (o-1/24) — Toss Up —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte — Toss Up —
Elvis – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, Michael Keller — Spoiler —
Avatar: The Way of Water – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Michael Hedges — Spoiler —
The Batman – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson — Long Shot —

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett (o-4/24) — Guarantee —
Top Gun: Maverick – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, Scott R. Fisher — Spoiler —
All Quiet on the Western Front – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar — Spoiler —
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, Dan Sudick — Doubtful —
The Batman – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy — Doubtful —

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front – Germany (o-1/24) — Toss Up —
Argentina, 1985 – Argentina — Toss Up —
The Quiet Girl – Ireland — Spoiler —
Close – Belgium — Spoiler —
EO – Poland — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Feature

Navalny – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, Shane Boris (o-3/6) — Toss Up —
All That Breathes – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann, Teddy Leifer — Toss Up —
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov — Toss Up —
Fire of Love – Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, Ina Fichman — Toss Up —
A House Made of Splinters – Simon Lereng Wilmont, Monica Hellström — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

Stranger at the Gate – Joshua Seftel, Conall Jone (o-2/9) — Toss Up —
The Elephant Whisperers – Kartiki Gonsalves, Guneet Monga — Toss Up —
Haulout – Evgenia Arbugaeva, Maxim Arbugaev — Toss Up —
How Do You Measure a Year? – Jay Rosenblatt — Toss Up —
The Martha Mitchell Effect – Anne Alvergue, Beth Levison — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse – Charlie Mackesy, Matthew Freud (o-1/20) — Toss Up —
The Flying Sailor – Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby — Toss Up —
Ice Merchants – João Gonzalez, Bruno Caetano — Toss Up —
My Year of Dicks – Sara Gunnarsdóttir, Pamela Ribon — Toss Up —
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It – Lachlan Pendragon — Toss Up —