FINAL: MARCH 24, 2022

I’ve made some minor tweaks here or there, but I’m pretty much set now on my final predictions. It all ends in three days.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

NEW: FEBRUARY 8, 2022

While on the surface, the year has been a bit unpredictable, the potential winners haven’t changed much in the last months.

UPDATED: MARCH 14, 2022

Things have mostly settled. I’ve still got some tinkering to do with four precursors this weekend, but these are nearing final territory.

AWARDS
6 3 2 1 – – – – – – – – – – –	Dune CODA The Eyes of Tammy Faye Ala Kachuu – Take and Run Audible Belfast Cruella Drive My Car Encanto King Richard No Time to Die Robin Robin Summer of Soul The Power of the Dog West Side Story

Best Picture

• CODA – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger (o-3/19) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier — Toss Up —
• Dune – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve, Cale Boyter — Toss Up —
• Belfast – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas — Toss Up —
• King Richard – Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith — Toss Up —
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger — Toss Up —
• Licorice Pizza – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, Paul Thomas Anderson — Doubtful —
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, Kevin Messick — Doubtful —
• Drive My Car – Teruhisa Yamamoto — Long Shot —
• Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, Bradley Cooper — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

• Encanto – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer (o-6/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Kurt Albrecht — Toss Up —
• Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie — Toss Up —
• Luca – Enrico Casarosa, Andrea Warren — Long Shot —
• Raya and the Last Dragon – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer, Peter Del Vecho — Long Shot —

Best Directing

• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (o-12/24) — Certain —
•  
• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh — Spolier —
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg — Spolier —
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson — Doubtful —
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi — Long Shot —

Best Actor

• Will Smith – King Richard (o-3/13) — Likely —
•  
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog — Spolier —
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! — Spolier —
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth — Doubtful —
• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos — Long Shot —

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (o-2/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers — Toss Up —
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer — Toss Up —
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos — Toss Up —
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter — Toss Up —

Best Supporting Actor

• Troy Kotsur – CODA (o-2/27) — Likely —
•  
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog — Spolier —
• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast — Spolier —
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog — Long Shot —
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (o-12/24) — Likely —
•  
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog — Spolier —
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard — Spolier —
• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter — Spolier —
• Judi Dench – Belfast — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (o-10/10) — Toss Up —
•  
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson — Toss Up —
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota — Toss Up —
• King Richard – Zach Baylin — Doubtful —
• The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA – Siân Heder (o-2/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion — Toss Up —
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal — Spolier —
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe — Spolier —
• Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

• No Time to Die (Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell) – No Time to Die (o-2/24) — Toss Up —
•  
• Dos Oruguitas (Lin-Manuel Miranda) – Encanto — Toss Up —
• Be Alive (DIXSON, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter) – King Richard — Toss Up —
• Down to Joy (Van Morrison) – Belfast — Doubtful —
• Somehow You Do (Diane Warren) – Four Good Days — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

• Dune – Hans Zimmer (o-6/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood — Toss Up —
• Encanto – Germaine Franco — Toss Up —
• Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell — Doubtful —
• Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias — Doubtful —

Best Editing

• Dune – Joe Walker (o-3/22) — Toss Up —
•  
• King Richard – Pamela Martin — Toss Up —
• tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum — Toss Up —
• Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin — Spolier —
• The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• Dune – Greig Fraser (o-6/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner — Toss Up —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel — Toss Up —
• West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski — Doubtful —
• Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos (o-3/13) — Toss Up —
•  
• Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau — Toss Up —
• West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo — Spolier —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh — Doubtful —
• The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards — Long Shot —

Best Costume Design

• Cruella – Jenny Beavan (o-6/28) — Likely —
•  
• West Side Story – Paul Tazewell — Spolier —
• Dune – Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan — Spolier —
• Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran — Spolier —
• Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira — Spolier —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh (o-3/3) — Toss Up —
•  
• Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, Julia Vernon — Toss Up —
• Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer — Toss Up —
• Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr — Toss Up —
• House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, Frederic Aspiras — Doubtful —

Best Sound

• Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett (o-6/28) — Likely —
•  
• West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy — Spolier —
• No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor — Spolier —
• Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri — Long Shot —
• The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb — Long Shot —

Best Visual Effects

• Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer (o-6/28) — Certain —
•  
• Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick — Spolier —
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver — Spolier —
• Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick — Spolier —
• No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, Chris Corbould — Long Shot —

Best International Feature Film

• Drive My Car – Japan (o-12/6) — Certain —
•  
• Flee – Denmark — Spolier —
• The Worst Person in the World – Norway — Spolier —
• The Hand of God – Italy — Doubtful —
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom – Bhutan — Long Shot —

Best Documentary Feature

• Summer of Soul – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent, David Dinerstein (o-12/6) — Likely —
•  
• Flee – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Charlotte De La Gournerie — Spolier —
• Attica – Stanley Nelson, Traci A. Curry — Spolier —
• Writing with Fire – Rintu Thomas, Sushmit Ghosh — Spolier —
• Ascension – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy, Nathan Truesdell — Spolier —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Audible – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean (o-2/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• Lead Me Home – Pedro Kos, Jon Shenk — Toss Up —
• The Queen of Basketball – Ben Proudfoot — Toss Up —
• Three Songs for Benazir – Elizabeth Mirzaei, Gulistan Mirzaei — Toss Up —
• When We Were Bullies – Jay Rosenblatt — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

• Robin Robin – Dan Ojari, Mikey Please (o-2/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• Affairs of the Art – Joanna Quinn, Les Mills — Toss Up —
• Bestia – Hugo Covarrubias, Tevo Díaz — Toss Up —
• Boxballet – Anton Dyakov — Toss Up —
• The Windshield Wiper – Alberto Mielgo, Leo Sanchez — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Ala Kachuu – Take and Run – Take and Run – Maria Brendle, Nadine Lüchinger (o-2/28) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Dress – Tadeusz Lysiak, Maciej Slesicki — Toss Up —
• The Long Goodbye – Aneil Karia, Riz Ahmed — Toss Up —
• On My Mind – Martin Strange-Hansen, Kim Magnusson — Toss Up —
• Please Hold – K.D. Dávila, Levin Menekse — Toss Up —