UPDATE: FEBRUARY 6, 2022

The Oscar nominations are Tuesday and I’ve tinkered with these enough. I think I have a pretty solid foundation. While I took some cues from BAFTA (Don’t Look Up), I dismissed a lot of their nominations-by-committee. Knowing that only the top two finishers were guarnateed slots out of six, that means that 2/3 of their selections (outside of Best Picture, which didn’t use that method), are confined to the whims of 10 people. That’s insufficient evidence. I didn’t want to read too much into their choices, so I let the guilds and top nomination getters across all of Precursordom, as more of a guide. Of course, I could also see these changing between now and Tuesday, but if I don’t stop, I won’t be able to complete the other two posts going live Monday: our final predictions and my traditional Oscar Morning Article.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 24, 2021

In preparing for our upcoming nominations predictions along with the inclusion of several shortlists, I’ve laid out my current predictions. I’m still not solid on quite a few, but a lot of things are firming up.

UPDATE: OCTOBER 13, 2021

It’s been a bit since I last updated predictions and I found that while I removed several films that have either become non-contenders or which have moved into 2022, I added very few new films to the list. That said, I made several moves in many categories, so it’s all something a bit new.

NEW: JUNE 30, 2021

The initial list began coming together two months ago, but no one seemed ready for it, so I held off. Things have obviously changed in the interim, so there are even more contenders on the list now.

Lock: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Near Lock: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Good: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Borderline: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the locks, near locks and goods above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “borderline” description.
Doubtful: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

Everything from Best Picture down through Best Documentary Feature have been placed in the order from most to least likely to be nominated.

NOMINATIONS		AWARDS
11 9 – 6 5 – 4 3 – – – – –	Dune The Power of the Dog West Side Story Licorice Pizza Belfast King Richard Being the Ricardos CODA Cyrano House of Gucci Nightmare Alley The Tragedy of Macbeth	5 – 2 1 – – – – – – – – –	Dune The Power of the Dog Cruella Belfast Drive My Car Encanto The Facility King Richard The Lost Daughter Nightmare Alley Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) Tala’vision Us Again West Side Story

Best Picture

• The Power of the Dog – Netflix (c-6/28, n-10/10, o-12/24) — Lock —
•  
• Dune – Warner Bros. (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Near Lock —
• Belfast – Focus Features (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Near Lock —
• Licorice Pizza – MGM (c-5/1, n-12/24) — Near Lock —
• Don’t Look Up – Netflix (c-6/28, n-2/1) — Good —
• West Side Story – 20th Century (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• CODA – Apple TV+ (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• King Richard – Warner Bros. (c-12/23, n-12/23) — Borderline —
• tick, tick…BOOM! – Netflix (c-12/24, n-2/1) — Borderline —
• Being the Ricardos – Amazon Prime (c-2/1, n-2/1) — Borderline —
•  
• Drive My Car – Janus Films (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• The Lost Daughter – Netflix (c-12/23) — Borderline —
• Nightmare Alley – Searchlight (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Passing – Netflix (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Mass – Bleecker Street (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Cyrano – MGM (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – A24 (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• The Green Knight – A24 (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• Spencer – Neon (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• House of Gucci – MGM (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Searchlight (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• In the Heights – Warner Bros. (c-5/1) — Doubtful —

Best Animated Film

• Encanto – Walt Disney (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Lock —
•  
• The Mitchells vs. Machines – Sony Pictures (c-12/6, n-12/24) — Lock —
• Luca – Pixar (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• Raya and the Last Dragon – Walt Disney (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• Sing 2 – Universal (c-5/1, n-2/1) — Borderline —
•  
• Flee – Participant Media (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Vivo – Sony (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Belle – GKIDS (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Wish Dragon – Sony Pictures (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Spirit Untamed – DreamWorks (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Ron’s Gone Wrong – 20th Century (c-5/1) — Borderline —
•  
• The Addams Family 2 – United Artists (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• The Ape Star – Viva Pictures (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Back to the Outback – Netflix (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Bob Spit – We Do Not Like People – Outsider Pictures (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• The Boss Baby: Family Business – DreamWorks (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Clifford the Big Red Dog – Paramount (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Cryptozoo – Magnolia Pictures (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko – GKIDS (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Hotel Transylvania: Transformania – Sony (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Josee, the Tiger and the Fish – FUNimation (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• The Laws of the Universe – The Age of Elohim – Freestyle (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• My Sunny Maad – TBD (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Paw Patrol The Movie – Paramount (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Pompo the Cinephile – GKIDS (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Poupelle of Chimney Town – Eleven Arts (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Space Jam: A New Legacy – Warner Bros. (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• The Spine of Night – Shudder (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• The Summit of the Gods – Netflix (c-12/6) — Doubtful —

All of the Animated Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The fifteen films separated at the bottom are not organized in order of likelihood as they are unlikely to get nominated anyway.

Best Directing

• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (c-6/28, n-6/28, o-12/24) — Lock —
•  
• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Near Lock —
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (c-5/1, n-12/24) — Good —
• Dune – Denis Villeneuve (c-5/1, n-10/10) — Good —
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Borderline —
•  
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• tick, tick…BOOM! – Lin-Manuel Miranda (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Titane – Julia Ducournau (c-2/6) — Borderline —
• Passing – Rebecca Hall (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• CODA – Sian Heder (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Spencer – Pablo Larrain (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• The Green Knight – David Lowery (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Wes Anderson (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Cyrano – Joe Wright (c-6/28) — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (c-6/28, n-10/10, o-12/24) — Lock —
•  
• Will Smith – King Richard (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Near Lock —
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth (c-6/28, n-6/28) — Good —
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Borderline —
• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos (c-2/1, n-2/1) — Borderline —
•  
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Peter Dinklage – Cyrano (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Nicolas Cage – Pig (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter (c-10/10) — Doubtful —
• Hidetoshi Nishijima – Drive My Car (c-2/6) — Doubtful —
• Mahershala Ali – Swan Song (c-2/6) — Doubtful —
• Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon (c-10/10) — Doubtful —
• Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon (c-10/10) — Doubtful —

Best Actress

• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (c-12/24, n-12/24, o-2/6) — Good —
•  
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Good —
• Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (c-5/1, n-10/10) — Good —
• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Borderline —
• Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza (c-12/24, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Tessa Thompson – Passing (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Emilia Jones – CODA (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Rachel Zegler – West Side Story (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Agathe Rousselle – Titane (c-2/6) — Borderline —
• Jennifer Hudson – Respect (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• Haley Bennett – Cyrano (c-6/28) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (c-12/24, n-12/24, o-12/24) — Lock —
•  
• Troy Kotsur – CODA (c-5/1, n-12/24) — Good —
• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Good —
• Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (c-12/24, n-2/1) — Borderline —
• Mike Faist – West Side Story (c-12/24, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Jared Leto – House of Gucci (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Jason Isaacs – Mass (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• David Alvarez – West Side Story (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Jeffrey Wright – The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Jamie Dornan – Belfast (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Robin de Jesus – tick, tick…BOOM! (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• Ben Affleck – The Last Duel (c-2/6) — Doubtful —
• Colman Domingo – Zola (c-12/24) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (c-5/1, n-12/24, o-12/24) — Lock —
•  
• Ruth Negga – Passing (c-10/10, n-12/24) — Good —
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Borderline —
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Borderline —
• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (c-12/24, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• Caitriona Balfe – Belfast (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Ann Dowd – Mass (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Judi Dench – Belfast (c-2/6) — Borderline —
• Rita Moreno – West Side Story (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Marlee Matlin – CODA (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth (c-2/6) — Doubtful —
• Martha Plimpton – Mass (c-10/10) — Doubtful —
• Diana Rigg – Last Night in Soho (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon (c-12/24) — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh (c-6/28, n-10/10, o-10/10) — Lock —
•  
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Near Lock —
• Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Good —
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay, David Sirota (c-12/24, n-2/1) — Good —
• King Richard – Zach Baylin (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Borderline —
•  
• Mass – Fran Kranz (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Parallel Mothers – Pedro Almodovar (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Pig – Vanessa Block, Michael Sarnoski (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• The Card Counter – Paul Schrader (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• A Hero – Asghar Farhadi (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• C’mon C’mon – Mike Mills (c-10/10) — Doubtful —
• Spencer – Steven Knight (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• The Harder They Fall – Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness (c-5/1) — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (c-6/28, n-10/10, o-10/10) — Lock —
•  
• West Side Story – Tony Kushner (c-5/1, n-12/21) — Good —
• CODA – Sian Heder (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth (c-5/1, n-2/1) — Borderline —
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Borderline —
•  
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Passing – Rebecca Hall (Novel: Nella Larsen) (c-10/10) — Borderline —
• Nightmare Alley – Kim Morgan, Guillermo del Toro (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• tick, tick…BOOM! – Steven Levenson (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• The Green Knight – David Lowery (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Joel Coen (c-6/28) — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

• Be Alive – King Richard (c-5/1, n-12/21, o-12/21) — Good —
•  
• No Time to Die – No Time to Die (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Near Lock —
• Guns Go Bang – The Harder They Fall (c-5/1, n-12/21) — Good —
• Here I Am (Singing My Way Home) – Respect (c-5/1, n-12/21) — Borderline —
• Dos Oruguitas – Encanto (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Borderline —
•  
• Beyond the Shore – CODA (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Down to Joy – Belfast (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Just Look Up – Don’t Look Up (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Your Song Saved My Life – Sing 2 (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Right Where I Belong – Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• So May We Start? – Annette (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Dream Girl – Cinderella (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Automatic Woman – Bruised (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Somehow You Do – Four Good Days (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• The Anonymous Ones – Dear Evan Hansen (c-5/1) — Doubtful —

All of the Songs listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Score

• Dune – Hans Zimmer (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Lock —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood (c-6/28, n-6/28) — Good —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Alexandre Desplat (c-5/1, n-2/6) — Borderline —
• Spencer – Jonny Greenwood (c-6/28, n-12/21) — Borderline —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell (c-6/28, n-6/28) — Borderline —
•  
• Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• King Richard – Kris Bowers (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Being the Ricardos – Daniel Pemberton (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Encanto – Germaine Franco (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• The Green Knight – Daniel Hart (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• The Harder They Fall – Jeymes Samuel (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• The Last Duel – Harry Gregson-Williams (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Candyman – Robert Aiki Aubrey Lowe (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Scores listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Editing

• Dune – Joe Walker (c-5/1, n-10/10, o-2/6) — Lock —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Good —
• West Side Story – Sarah Broshar, Michael Kahn (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• Licorice Pizza – Andy Jurgensen (c-5/1, n-12/24) — Borderline —
• Belfast – Una Ni Dhonhaile (c-12/24, n-12/24) — Borderline —
•  
• Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• tick, tick…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Nightmare Alley – Cam McLauchlin (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• King Richard – Pamela Martin (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• CODA – Geraud Brisson (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• House of Gucci – Claire Simpson (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Cyrano – Valerio Bonelli (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Reginald Jaynes (c-6/28) — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• Dune – Greig Fraser (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Lock —
•  
• The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Good —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel (c-6/28, n-12/21) — Good —
• Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Borderline —
•  
• Belfast – Haris Zambarloukos (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson, Michael Bauman (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• The Green Knight – Andrew Droz Palermo (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Passing – Edu Grau (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• Don’t Look Up – Linus Sandgren (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Cyrano – Seamus McGarvey (c-6/28) — Doubtful —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Robert D. Yeoman (c-5/1) — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• Nightmare Alley – Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau (c-5/1, n-10/10, o-10/10) — Lock —
•  
• Dune – Patrice Vermette; Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos (c-5/1, n-10/10) — Near Lock —
• West Side Story – Adam Stockhausen; Rena DeAngelo (c-5/1, n-12/21) — Good —
• Cyrano – Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer (c-6/28, n-12/21) — Borderline —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Adam Stockhausen; Rena DeAngelo (c-5/1, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• The Green Knight – Jade Healy (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Last Night in Soho – Marcus Rowland; Judy Farr (c-12/24) — Borderline —
• The Last Duel – Arthur Max; Judy Farr (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Stefan Dechant; Nancy Haigh (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Licorice Pizza – Florencia Martin; Ryan Watson (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Cruella – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Belfast – Jim Clay; Claire Nia Richards (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• House of Gucci – Arthur Max; Letizia Santucci (c-5/1) — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• Cruella – Jenny Beavan (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Lock —
•  
• House of Gucci – Janty Yates (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini (c-6/28, n-10/10) — Good —
• Dune – Jacqueline West (c-5/1, n-10/10) — Borderline —
• Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira (c-5/1, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• West Side Story – Paul Tazewell (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Spencer – Jacqueline Durran (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Mary Zophres (c-6/28) — Borderline —
• Licorice Pizza – Mark Bridges (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• The Green Knight – Malgosia Turzanska (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Last Night in Soho – Odile Dicks-Mireaux (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• Respect – Clint Ramos (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Cinderella – Ellen Mirojnick (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun – Milena Canonero (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• The Last Duel – Janty Yates (c-5/1) — Doubtful —
• Belfast – Charlotte Walter (c-12/24) — Doubtful —
• Passing – Marci Rodgers (c-10/10) — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Cruella (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Near Lock —
•  
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye (c-12/21, n-12/21) — Good —
• Dune (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• House of Gucci (c-12/21, n-2/6) — Borderline —
• Cyrano (c-12/21, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• Coming 2 America (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• The Suicide Squad (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Nightmare Alley (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• West Side Story (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• No Time to Die (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound

• Dune (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Lock —
•  
• West Side Story (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Good —
• Spider-Man: No Way Home (c-5/1, n-12/21) — Borderline —
• No Time to Die (c-5/1, n-2/6) — Borderline —
• A Quiet Place: Part II (c-5/1, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• The Matrix Resurrections (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• tick, tick…BOOM! (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Belfast (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• The Power of the Dog (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• Last Night in Soho (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Sound branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Visual Effects

• Dune (c-5/1, n-6/28, o-6/28) — Lock —
•  
• Spider-Man: No Way Home (c-5/1, n-12/21) — Good —
• The Matrix Resurrections (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Borderline —
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (c-5/1, n-6/28) — Borderline —
• Free Guy (c-5/1, n-2/6) — Borderline —
•  
• Eternals (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Black Widow (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Ghostbusters: Afterlife (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• Godzilla vs Kong (c-5/1) — Borderline —
• No Time to Die (c-12/21) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Drive My Car – Japan (c-12/6, n-12/6, o-12/6) — Lock —
•  
• The Worst Person in the World – Norway (c-12/6, n-2/6) — Good —
• Flee – Denmark (c-12/6, n-12/6) — Borderline —
• A Hero – Iran (c-12/6, n-12/6) — Borderline —
• I’m Your Man – Germany (c-12/6, n-12/24) — Borderline —
•  
• The Hand of God – Italy (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Compartment No. 6 – Finland (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Prayers for the Stolen – Mexico (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Great Freedom – Austria (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Lamb – Iceland (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Playground – Belgium (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Plaza Catedral – Panama (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom – Bhutan (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• The Good Boss – Spain (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Hive – Kosovo (c-12/6) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Foreign Language Film branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Documentary Feature

• Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (c-12/6, n-12/6, o-12/6) — Lock —
•  
• The Rescue (c-12/6, n-12/6) — Good —
• Procession (c-12/6, n-12/6) — Good —
• Flee (c-12/6, n-12/6) — Good —
• The First Wave (c-12/6, n-12/6) — Borderline —
•  
• Ascension (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• The Velvet Underground (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Writing with Fire (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• Attica (c-12/6) — Borderline —
• In the Same Breath (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Faya Dayi (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Julia (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• President (c-12/6) — Doubtful —
• Simple as Water (c-12/6) — Doubtful —

All of the Documentary Features listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The Facility (c-12/21, n-12/24, o-12/24)
•  
• A Broken House (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• Day of Rage (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• The Queen of Basketball (c-12/21, n-12/24)
•  
• Águilas (c-12/21)
• Audible (c-12/21)
• Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (c-12/21)
• Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker (c-12/21)
• Lead Me Home (c-12/21)
• Sophie & the Baron (c-12/21)
• Takeover (c-12/21)
• Terror Contagion (c-12/21)
• Three Songs for Benazir (c-12/21)
• When We Were Bullies (c-12/21)

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

• Us Again (c-12/21, n-12/24, o-12/24)
•  
• Bad Seeds (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• Mum Is Pouring Rain (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• Souvenir Souvenir (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• Step into the River (c-12/21, n-12/24)
•  
• Affairs of the Art (c-12/21)
• Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice (c-12/21)
• Bestia (c-12/21)
• Boxballet (c-12/21)
• Flowing Home (c-12/21)
• The Musician (c-12/21)
• Namoo (c-12/21)
• Only a Child (c-12/21)
• Robin Robin (c-12/21)
• The Windshield Wiper (c-12/21)

All of the Animated Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

• Tala’vision (c-12/21, n-12/24, o-12/24)
•  
• Censor of Dreams (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• Frimas (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• The Long Goodbye (c-12/21, n-12/24)
• When the Sun Sets (c-12/21, n-12/24)
•  
• Ala Kachuu – Take and Run (c-12/21)
• The Criminals (c-12/21)
• Distances (c-12/21)
• The Dress (c-12/21)
• Les Grandes Claques (c-12/21)
• On My Mind (c-12/21)
• Please Hold (c-12/21)
• Stenofonen (c-12/21)
• Under the Heavens (c-12/21)
• You’re Dead Helen (c-12/21)

All of the Live Action Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.