Final: February 6, 2020

I made some changes to the order of potential and the chances of victory, but the predictions are the same as 3 days ago. This is my hill.

AWARDS
6 2 – – 1 – – – – – – – – – – –	1917 Joker Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood Parasite American Factory Bombshell Ford v Ferrari Jojo Rabbit Judy Kitbull Klaus Learning to Skateboard in a Qarzone (If You’re a Girl) Little Women Marriage Story The Neighbors’ Window Rocketman

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except in the documentary and short film categories). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think each is as a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Probably Final: February 3, 2020

I’m going to try not to second-guess myself this year. Based on the BAFTA, the last of the precursor awards to go out, I think I’ve made a pretty decent list of predictions below.

New: January 13, 2020

These are my gut reactions to the nominations and what I think will carry over to the final ceremony.

Best Picture

• 1917 – Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall (o-12/15) — Likely —
•  
• Parasite – Kwak Sin Ae, Bong Joon Ho — Spoiler —
• Jojo Rabbit – Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi — Spoiler —
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino — Spoiler —
• Joker – Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper, Emma Tillinger Koskoff — Doubtful —
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Emma Tillinger Koskoff — Doubtful —
• Little Women – Amy Pascal — Long Shot —
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach, David Heyman — Long Shot —
• Ford v Ferrari – Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping, James Mangold — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

• Klaus – Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, Marisa Román (o-2/3) — Toss Up —
•  
• Toy Story 4 – Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera — Toss Up —
• Missing Link – Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, Travis Knight — Spoiler —
• I Lost My Body – Jéréemy Clapin, Marc du Pontavice — Spolier —
• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis, Bonnie Arnold — Doubtful —

Best Directing

• 1917 – Sam Mendes (o-12/15) — Likely —
•  
• Parasite – Bong Joon Ho — Spoiler —
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino — Spoiler —
• The Irishman – Martin Scorsese — Doubtful —
• Joker – Todd Phillips — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (o-1/13) — Certain —
•  
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story — Spolier —
• Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory — Doubtful —
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes — Doubtful —
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood — Long Shot —

Best Actress

• Renée Zellweger – Judy (o-7/16) — Certain —
•  
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story — Spolier —
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell — Doubtful —
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women — Doubtful —
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (o-12/15) — Certain —
•  
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman — Spoiler —
• Al Pacino – The Irishman — Spoiler —
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood — Doubtful —
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Laura Dern – Marriage Story (o-12/15) — Certain —
•  
• Florence Pugh – Little Women — Spoiler —
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell — Spoiler —
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit — Doubtful —
• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

• Parasite – Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won (o-1/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino — Toss Up —
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach — Spoiler —
• Knives Out – Rian Johnson — Doubtful —
• 1917 – Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi (o-2/3) — Toss Up —
•  
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig — Toss Up —
• The Irishman – Steven Zaillian — Spoiler —
• Joker – Todd Phillips, Scott Silver — Doubtful —
• The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

• “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” – Elton Jhon, Bernie Taupin – Rocketman (o-1/8) — Certain —
•  
• “Stand Up” – Joshuah Brian Campbell, Cynthia Erivo – Harriet — Spoiler —
• “Into the Unknown” – Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez – Frozen II — Spoiler —
• “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” – Randy Newman – Toy Story 4 — Long Shot —
• “I’m Standing with You” – Diane Warren – Breakthrough — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

• Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir (o-1/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• 1917 – Thomas Newman — Toss Up —
• Marriage Story – Randy Newman — Spoiler —
• Little Women – Alexandre Desplat — Spoiler —
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams — Spoiler —

Best Editing

• Ford v Ferrari – Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland (o-1/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Parasite – Yang Jinmo — Toss Up —
• Joker – Jeff Groth — Toss Up —
• Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles — Doubtful —
• The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• 1917 – Roger Deakins (o-12/15) — Certain —
•  
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Robert Richardson — Spoiler —
• The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke — Spoiler —
• The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto — Spoiler —
• Joker – Lawrence Sher — Spoiler —

Best Production Design

• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh (o-1/13) — Toss Up —
•  
• 1917 – Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales — Toss Up —
• Parasite – Lee Ha Jun, Cho Won Woo — Toss Up —
• Jojo Rabbit – Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková — Spoiler —
• The Irishman – Bob Shaw, Regina Graves — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• Little Women – Jacqueline Durran (o-1/13) — Likely —
•  
• Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo — Spoiler —
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips — Spoiler —
• Joker – Mark Bridges — Doubtful —
• The Irishman – Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson — Long Shot —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, Vivian Baker (o-1/13) — Likely —
•  
• Joker – Nicki Ledermann, Kay Georgiou — Spoiler —
• 1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, Rebecca Cole — Spoiler —
• Judy – Jeremy Woodhead — Spoiler —
• Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, David White — Spoiler —

Best Sound Mixing

• 1917 – Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson (o-9/15) — Toss Up —
•  
• Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Steven A. Morrow — Toss Up —
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, Mark Ulano — Spoiler —
• Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson, Mark Ulano — Doubtful —
• Joker – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Tod Maitland — Long Shot —

Best Sound Editing

• 1917 – Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate (o-3/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Ford v Ferrari – Donald Sylvester — Toss Up —
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Wylie Stateman — Spoiler —
• Joker – Alan Robert Murray — Doubtful —
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Matthew Wood, David Acord — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

• 1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, Dominic Tuohy (o-2/3) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Lion King – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, Elliot Newman — Toss Up —
• Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken, Dan Sudick — Toss Up —
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, Dominic Tuohy — Toss Up —
• The Irishman – Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Stephane Grabli — Doubtful —

Best International Film

• Parasite – South Korea (o-10/7) — Guarantee —
•  
• Pain and Glory – Spain — Spoiler —
• Les Misérables – France — Spoiler —
• Honeyland – North Macedonia — Doubtful —
• Corpus Christi – Poland — Long Shot —

Best Documentary Feature

• American Factory – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, Jeff Reichert (o-1/13) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Cave – Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, Sigrid Dyekjær — Toss Up —
• The Edge of Democracy – Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, Tiago Pavan — Toss Up —
• For Sama – Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts — Toss Up —
• Honeyland – Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, Atanas Georgiev — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Learning to Skateboard in a Qarzone (If You’re a Girl) – Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva (o-2/3) — Toss Up —
•  
• In the Absence – Yi Seung-Jun, Gary Byung-Seok Kam — Toss Up —
• Life Overtakes Me – John Haptas, Kristine Samuelson — Toss Up —
• St. Louis Superman – Smriti Mundhra, Sami Khan — Toss Up —
• Walk Run Cha-Cha – Laura Nix, Colette Sandstedt — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

• Kitbull – Rosana Sullivan, Kathryn Hendrickson (o-1/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Dcera (Daughter) – Daria Kashcheeva — Toss Up —
• Hair Love – Matthew A. Cherry, Karen Rupert Toliver — Toss Up —
• Memorable – Bruno Collet, Jean-François Le Corre — Toss Up —
• Sister – Siqi Song — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

• The Neighbors’ Window – Marshall Curry (o-1/27) — Toss Up —
•  
• Brotherhood – Meryam Joobeur, Maria Gracia Turgeon — Toss Up —
• Nefta Football Club – Yves Piat, Damien Megherbi — Toss Up —
• Saria – Bryan Buckley, Matt Lefebvre — Toss Up —
• A Sister – Delphine Girard — Toss Up —

Updated: January 27, 2020

With only a small number of precursors left to go, there’s not much more that can change. BAFTA will be the last testing ground on the weekend before the Oscars.