Final: February 20, 2019

All of the precursors are in. Ballots have been submitted. I’ve run numerous scenarios in my head and I’m no clearer now than I was at the beginning of the season. This represents my (likely) final predictions. While the new picks are dated 2/20 for the most part, many of them changed during the Rundown series, so the dates aren’t precise.

AWARDS
3 – 2 – – 1 – – – – – – – – – – –	Bohemian Rhapsody Roma The Favourite Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk Avengers: Infinity War Bao Black Panther BlacKkKlansman Free Solo Lifeboat Marguerite A Quiet Place Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse A Star Is Born The Wife Vice

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except in the documentary and short film categories). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think each is as a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

New: January 22, 2019

These are my gut reactions to the nominations and what I think will carry over to the final ceremony.

Updated: February 10, 2019

With several precursors, including major ones like the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America, and British Academy of Film & Television Arts awards, the season is beginning to crystallize into leaders and also-rans. There will probably be a few more changes before the end of the year, but these are starting to feel pretty solid.

Best Picture

• Green Book – Universal (o-2/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• Roma – Netflix — Toss Up —
• The Favourite – Fox Searchlight — Toss Up —
• BlacKkKlansman – Focus Features — Toss Up —
• Black Panther – Marvel/Disney — Toss Up —
• A Star Is Born – Warner Bros. — Toss Up —
• Vice – Annapurna — Doubtful —
• Bohemian Rhapsody – Fox — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures (o-1/20) — Guarantee —
•  
• Isle of Dogs – Fox Searchlight — Spolier —
• Incredibles 2 – Disney/Pixar — Spolier —
• Ralph Breaks the Internet – Disney — Long Shot —
• Mirai – Gkids — Long Shot —

Best Directing

• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (o-12/7) — Likely —
•  
• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee — Spolier —
• The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos — Doubtful —
• Vice – Adam McKay — Doubtful —
• Cold War – Pawel Pawlikowski — Long Shot —

Best Actor

• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (o-1/22) — Likely —
•  
• Christian Bale – Vice — Spolier —
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate — Spolier —
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born — Spolier —
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book — Long Shot —

Best Actress

• Glenn Close – The Wife (o-12/7) — Likely —
•  
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite — Spolier —
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born — Spolier —
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? — Doubtful —
• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Green Book (o-1/20) — Likely —
•  
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? — Spolier —
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born — Spolier —
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman — Long Shot —
• Sam Rockwell – Vice — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (o-12/7) — Toss Up —
•  
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite — Toss Up —
• Amy Adams – Vice — Toss Up —
• Emma Stone – The Favourite — Doubtful —
• Marina de Tavira – Roma — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

• The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (o-1/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly — Toss Up —
• Vice – Adam McKay — Toss Up —
• First Reformed – Paul Schrader — Spolier —
• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron — Spolier —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott (o-2/10) — Toss Up —
•  
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins — Toss Up —
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty — Toss Up —
• A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters — Doubtful —
• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

• Shallow – A Star Is Born (o-10/5) — Guarantee —
•  
• I’ll Fight – RBG — Spolier —
• All the Stars – Black Panther — Spolier —
• The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns — Spolier —
• When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs — Doubtful —

Best Original Score

• If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell (o-1/22) — Toss Up —
•  
• BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard — Toss Up —
• Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson — Toss Up —
• Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat — Spolier —
• Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman — Spolier —

Best Editing

• Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman (o-2/6) — Likely —
•  
• Vice – Hank Corwin — Spolier —
• The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis — Spolier —
• BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown — Spolier —
• Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (o-12/7) — Likely —
•  
• Cold War – Lukasz Zal — Spolier —
• The Favourite – Robbie Ryan — Doubtful —
• A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique — Long Shot —
• Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel — Long Shot —

Best Production Design

• The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (o-2/7) — Toss Up —
•  
• Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart — Toss Up —
• Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim — Spolier —
• First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas — Spolier —
• Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez — Spolier —

Best Costume Design

• Black Panther – Ruth Carter (o-3/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Favourite – Sandy Powell — Toss Up —
• Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne — Toss Up —
• Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell — Toss Up —
• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres — Long Shot —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Vice (o-12/7) — Likely —
•  
• Mary Queen of Scots — Spolier —
• Border — Long Shot —

Best Sound Mixing

• Bohemian Rhapsody (o-2/10) — Likely —
•  
• First Man — Toss Up —
• Black Panther — Toss Up —
• A Star Is Born — Spolier —
• Roma — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

• A Quiet Place (o-1/22) — Toss Up —
•  
• Bohemian Rhapsody — Toss Up —
• First Man — Toss Up —
• Black Panther — Spolier —
• Roma — Long Shot —

Best Visual Effects

• Avengers: Infinity War (o-2/10) — Toss Up —
•  
• Ready Player One — Toss Up —
• First Man — Toss Up —
• Christopher Robin — Spolier —
• Solo: A Star Wars Story — Doubtful —

Best Foreign Language Film

• Roma – Mexico (o-10/15) — Likely —
•  
• Cold War – Poland — Spolier —
• Never Look Away – Germany — Spolier —
• Shoplifters – Japan — Doubtful —
• Capernaum – Lebanon — Long Shot —

Best Documentary Feature

• Free Solo (o-2/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening — Toss Up —
• Minding the Gap — Toss Up —
• Of Fathers and Sons — Toss Up —
• RBG — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Lifeboat (o-2/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• Black Sheep — Toss Up —
• End Game — Toss Up —
• A Night at the Garden — Toss Up —
• Period. End of Sentence. — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

• Bao (o-2/20) — Toss Up —
•  
• Animal Behavior — Toss Up —
• Late Afternoon — Toss Up —
• One Small Step — Toss Up —
• Weekends — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Marguerite (o-2/4) — Toss Up —
•  
• Detainment — Toss Up —
• Fauve — Toss Up —
• Mother — Toss Up —
• Skin — Toss Up —