Looking at Film from Every Angle

89th Academy Awards (2016): Winner Predictions

FINAL: February 23, 2017

AWARDS
9 2 – 1 – – – – – – – – – –	La La Land Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Fences Florence Foster Jenkins Hacksaw Ridge Le Femme et le TGV O.J.: Made in America Piper Star Trek: Beyond The Jungle Book The White Helmets Toni Erdmann Zootopia

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

La La Land – Lionsgate (c-11/15) — Guarantee —

Moonlight – A24 — Spoiler —
Hidden Figures – Fox — Doubtful —
Lion – Weinstein Company — Doubtful —
Hell or High Water – CBS Films — Doubtful —
Arrival – Paramount — Doubtful —
Manchester by the Sea – Amazon Studios — Doubtful —
Hacksaw Ridge – Lionsgate — Doubtful —
Fences – Paramount — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

Zootopia – Disney (c-1/18) — Likely —

Kubo and the Two Strings – Laika — Toss Up —
The Red Turtle – Sony Pictures Classics — Doubtful —
Moana – Disney — Doubtful —
My Life as a Zucchini – GKids — Doubtful —

Best Director

La La Land – Damien Chazelle (c-12/5) — Certain —

Moonlight – Barry Jenkins — Spoiler —
Arrival – Denis Villeneuve — Doubtful —
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan — Doubtful —
Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson — Doubtful —

Best Actor

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (c-9/18) — Likely —

Denzel Washington – Fences — Spoiler —
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic — Spoiler —
Ryan Gosling – La La Land — Doubtful —
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge — Long Shot —

Best Actress

Emma Stone – La La Land (c-1/24) — Toss Up —

Isabelle Huppert – Elle — Toss Up —
Natalie Portman – Jackie — Toss Up —
Ruth Negga – Loving — Long Shot —
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (c-12/20) — Likely —

Dev Patel – Lion — Spoiler —
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water — Spoiler —
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals — Doubtful —
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences (c-11/15) — Guarantee —

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea — Spoiler —
Naomie Harris – Moonlight — Doubtful —
Nicole Kidman – Lion — Doubtful —
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan (c-9/18) — Likely —

La La Land – Damien Chazelle — Toss Up —
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan — Spoiler —
The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou — Spoiler —
20th Century Women – Mike Mills — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

Moonlight – Barry Jenkins (c-11/15) — Certain —

Arrival – Eric Heisserer — Toss Up —
Fences – Tony Kushner — Toss Up —
Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder — Spoiler —
Lion – Luke Davies — Spoiler —

Best Original Song

“City of Stars” – La La Land (c-12/5) — Likely —

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land — Toss Up —
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana — Spoiler —
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls — Spoiler —
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

La La Land – Justin Hurwitz (c-12/10) — Certain —

Jackie – Mica Levi — Toss Up —
Moonlight – Nicholas Britell — Doubtful —
Lion – Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka — Toss Up —
Passengers – Thomas Newman — Long Shot —

Best Editing

La La Land – Tom Cross (c-11/15) — Likely —

Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts — Spoiler —
Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert — Spoiler —
Arrival – Joe Walker — Doubtful —
Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

La La Land – Linus Sandgren (c-1/18) — Likely —

Lion – Greig Fraser — Spoiler —
Moonlight – James Laxton — Spoiler —
Arrival – Bradford Young — Spoiler —
Silence – Rodrigo Prieto — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

La La Land – David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (c-2/23) — Toss Up —

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig, James Hambridge; Anna Pinnock — Toss Up —
Passengers – Guy Hendrix Dyas — Spoiler —
Arrival – Patrice Vermette — Spoiler —
Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh — Doubtful —