UPDATED: January 18, 2017

May 31: The first list of the year is always subject to change, so please take the following with a grain of salt. It was a challenge to come up with as it is, so I’m not even close to believing anything here is guaranteed.

September 18: Lots of changes to the list. These reflect most of what I’ve heard about films coming out of Telluride, Venice, and Toronto. Still subject to change as films are released or not between now and November.

November 17: Quite a few changes now that the dust has settled after Telluride, Venice, and Toronto. Silence is one of the last few films to be seen. Billy Lynn’s had a major tumble while other films have emerged as stronger contenders. Once Precursor Season starts in earnest, we should be able to further narrow these selections.

December 5: With the early precursors in, I thought it was time for an update to get rid of some of the very antiquated predictions on my list. These will still change as Precursor Season plays out, but it’s a better look at the current status of the race.

December 22: Most of the critics groups have announced, as have the major groups with nominations from the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guilds. The remaining guilds are still to come and so changes are expected to the below.

January 18: In preparation for my Oscar Morning article, I’ve put the finishing touches on what is likely to be my final set of predictions. Normally, I wait for the last of the guilds to announce, but the Motion Picture Sound Editors aren’t looking like they’ll announce prior to the nominations, so that category is an absolute stab in the dark. A lot of stuff has managed to coalesce into certainty, but there are a lot of fourth and fifth-slot positions that just aren’t firmed up yet. I suspect I’ll make one final pass before putting these to bed, but this is a great start. I’ve also added the ratings for each contender (key below) except in the short film categories.

Lock: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Near Lock: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Good: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Borderline: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the locks, near locks and goods above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “borderline” description.
Doubtful: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

NOMINATIONS		AWARDS
12 10 8 7 – 5 – 4 – 3 – – – –	La La Land Arrival Moonlight Lion Manchester by the Sea Hacksaw Ridge Hidden Figures Fences Jackie Doctor Strange Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Florence Foster Jenkins Hell or High Water Rogue One	7 2 – – 1 – – – – – – – – – –	La La Land Jackie Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Arrival Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Fences Nocturne in Black O.J.: Made in America Piper Star Trek: Beyond The Jungle Book The White Helmets Toni Erdmann Zootopia

Everything from Best Picture down through Documentary Feature have been placed in the order from most to least likely to be nominated. This year, I don’t have much confidence in the order presented as things are very fluid this year.

Best Picture

• La La Land – Lionsgate (c-3/11, n-9/18, o-11/15) — Lock —
•  
• Moonlight – A24 (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Lock —
• Manchester by the Sea – Amazon Studios (c-5/31, n-5/31) — Lock —
• Arrival – Paramount (c-9/14, n-11/15) — Near Lock —
• Lion – Weinstein Company (c-9/18, n-12/5) — Near Lock —
• Hell or High Water – CBS Films (c-9/18, n-12/20) — Good —
• Hacksaw Ridge – Lionsgate (c-9/18, n-12/20) — Good —
• Hidden Figures – Fox (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Silence – Paramount (c-5/31, n-5/31) — Borderline —
• Fences – Paramount (c-5/31, n-5/31) — Borderline —
•  
• Jackie – Fox Searchlight (c-9/14) — Borderline —
• Loving – Focus (c-5/16) — Borderline —
• Nocturnal Animals – Focus Features (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Sully – Warner Bros. (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

Best Animated Film

• Zootopia – Disney (c-3/11, n-5/19, o-1/18) — Lock —
•  
• Kubo and the Two Strings – Laika (c-3/11, n-5/19) — Lock —
• Moana – Disney (c-3/11, n-5/19) — Lock —
• The Red Turtle – Sony Pictures Classics (c-11/11, n-11/11) — Good —
• My Life as a Zucchini – GKids (c-9/18, n-12/20) — Borderline —
•  
• Finding Dory – Pixar (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• The Little Prince – Netflix (c-11/11) — Borderline —
• Sing – Illumination (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Your Name. – FUNimation Entertainment (c-11/11) — Borderline —
• Kung Fu Panda 3 – DreamWorks (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• April and the Extraordinary World – GKids (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Miss Hokusai – GKids (c-11/11) — Doubtful —
• The Secret Life of Pets – Illumination (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Sausage Party – Sony (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

Animated Features below this point aren’t as likely as the ones above to be nominated.

• .25 April – General Film Corporation (c-11/11)
• The Angry Birds Movie – Sony Pictures Animation (c-3/11)
• Bilal – Barajoun Entertainment (c-11/11)
• Ice Age: Collision Course – Blue Sky (c-3/11)
• Kingsglaive Final Fantasy XV – Stage 6 Films (c-11/11)
• Long Way North – Shout! Factory (c-11/11)
• Monkey King: Hero Is Back – Viva Pictures (c-11/11)
• Mune – GKids (c-11/11)
• Mustafa & the Magician – Unknown (c-11/11)
• Phantom Boy – GKids (c-11/11)
• Snowtime! – Shout! Factory (c-11/11)
• Storks – Warner Bros. Animation (c-3/11)
• Trolls – DreamWorks (c-3/11)

All of the Animated Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

With the current number above, five films will be nominated in this category.

Best Director

• La La Land – Damien Chazelle (c-3/11, n-9/18, o-12/5) — Lock —
•  
• Moonlight – Barry Jenkins (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Lock —
• Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan (c-5/31, n-9/18) — Near Lock —
• Lion – Garth Davis (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Near Lock —
• Arrival – Denis Villeneuve (c-9/14, n-1/22) — Borderline —
•  
• Hell or High Water – David Mackenzie (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Silence – Martin Scorsese (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibson (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Fences – Denzel Washington (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Jackie – Pablo Larrain (c-9/14) — Borderline —
• Loving – Jeff Nichols (c-5/16) — Borderline —
• Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Sully – Clint Eastwood (c-3/11) — Borderline —

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (c-5/31, n-9/18, o-9/18) — Lock —
•  
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land (c-3/11, n-9/18) — Near Lock —
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (c-9/18, n-12/20) — Near Lock —
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic (c-12/20, n-12/20) — Good —
• Denzel Washington – Fences (c-5/31, n-5/31) — Good —
•  
• Joel Edgerton – Loving (c-5/16) — Borderline —
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Adam Driver – Paterson (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Michael Keaton – The Founder (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Snowden (c-9/18) — Doubtful —
• Tom Hanks – Sully (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Chris Pine – Hell or High Water (c-9/18) — Doubtful —

Best Actress

• Natalie Portman – Jackie (c-9/14, n-9/18, o-12/20) — Lock —
•  
• Emma Stone – La La Land (c-3/11, n-5/19) — Lock —
• Amy Adams – Arrival (c-9/14, n-11/15) — Near Lock —
• Isabelle Huppert – Elle (c-12/20, n-12/20) — Good —
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (c-12/20, n-12/20) — Borderline —
•  
• Annette Bening – 20th Century Women (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Ruth Negga – Loving (c-5/16) — Borderline —
• The Girl on the Train – Emily Blunt (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane (c-9/18) — Doubtful —
• Rebecca Hall – Christine (c-1/18) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (c-9/18, n-11/15, o-12/20) — Lock —
•  
• Dev Patel – Lion (c-9/18, n-12/5) — Lock —
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (c-9/18, n-11/15) — Near Lock —
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (c-12/20, n-12/20) — Borderline —
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea (c-12/20, n-12/20) — Borderline —
•  
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Ben Foster – Hell or High Water (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Ralph Fiennes – A Bigger Splash (c-12/20) — Borderline —
• Alden Ehrenreich – Hail, Caesar! (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Issei Ogata – Silence (c-12/5) — Doubtful —
• Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply (c-5/31) — Doubtful —
• Michael Shannon – Loving (c-5/16) — Doubtful —
• Liam Neeson – Silence (c-5/31) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis – Fences (c-5/31, n-11/15, o-11/15) — Lock —
•  
• Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea (c-5/31, n-12/5) — Near Lock —
• Nicole Kidman – Lion (c-3/11, n-11/15) — Near Lock —
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Near Lock —
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Good —
•  
• Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Janelle Monáe – Hidden Figures (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Lily Gladstone – Certain Women (c-12/20) — Borderline —
• Judy Davis – The Dressmaker (c-12/20) — Doubtful —
• Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls (c-12/20) — Doubtful —
• Molly Shannon – Other People (c-9/3) — Doubtful —
• Janelle Monáe – Moonlight (c-9/18) — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

• Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan (c-5/31, n-5/31, o-9/18) — Lock —
•  
• La La Land – Damien Chazelle (c-3/11, n-9/18) — Lock —
• Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Near Lock —
• The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou (c-12/5, n-12/5) — Good —
• Jackie – Noah Oppenheim (c-9/14, n-12/15) — Borderline —
•  
• 20th Century Women – Mike Mills (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Hail, Caesar! – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Zootopia – Jared Bush, Phil Johnston, Byron Howard, Rich Moore, Josie Trinidad, Jim Reardon, Jennifer Lee (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Moana – Jared Bush, Ron Clements, John Musker, Chris Williams, Don Hall, Pamela Ribon, Aaron Kandell, Jordan Kandell (c-11/15) — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Moonlight – Barry Jenkins (c-9/18, n-9/18, o-11/15) — Lock —
•  
• Arrival – Eric Heisserer (c-9/14, n-12/5) — Lock —
• Fences – Tony Kushner (c-5/31, n-5/31) — Lock —
• Lion – Luke Davies (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Near Lock —
• Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Good —
•  
• Silence – Jay Cocks (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Loving – Jeff Nichols (c-5/16) — Borderline —
• Hacksaw Ridge – Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Elle – David Birke (c-12/20) — Doubtful —
• Love & Friendship – Whit Stillman (c-12/20) — Doubtful —
• A Monster Calls – Patrick Ness (c-12/20) — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

• “City of Stars” – La La Land (c-12/5, n-12/5, o-12/5) — Lock —
•  
• “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land (c-12/5, n-12/5) — Near Lock —
• “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana (c-12/5, n-12/5) — Near Lock —
• “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls (c-12/5, n-12/13) — Near Lock —
• “Runnin” – Hidden Figures (c-12/5, n-1/18) — Borderline —
•  
• “Faith” – Sing (c-12/13) — Borderline —
• “Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street (c-12/5) — Borderline —
• “I’m Still Here” – Miss Sharon Jones! (c-12/5) — Borderline —
• “The Rules Don’t Apply” – Rules Don’t Apply (c-12/5) — Borderline —
• “We Know The Way” – Moana (c-12/13) — Borderline —
• “Gold” – Gold (c-12/13) — Borderline —
• “Never Give Up” – Lion (c-12/13) — Borderline —
• “I’m So Humble” – Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “The Great Beyond” – Sausage Party (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Heathens” – Suicide Squad (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Try Everything” – Zootopia (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Angel By The Wings” – The Eagle Huntress (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “I See A Victory” – Hidden Figures (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Loving” – Loving (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Back To Life” – Queen of Katwe (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Take Me Down” – Deepwater Horizon (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Get Back Up Again” – Trolls (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Set It All Free” – Sing (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Go Now” – Sing Street (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Flying Home” – Sully (c-12/13) — Doubtful —
• “Start A Fire” – La La Land (c-12/13) — Doubtful —

The Original Songs listed here are the most likely to be nominated. To conserve space, the full list of eligible songs has been moved to its own page, which you can access by clicking here.

Best Original Score

• La La Land – Justin Hurwitz (c-12/5, n-12/5, o-12/14) — Lock —
•  
• Jackie – Mica Levi (c-9/14, n-12/5) — Near Lock —
• Moonlight – Nicholas Britell (c-12/5, n-12/14) — Good —
• Lion – Volker Bertelmann, Dustin O’Halloran (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Nocturnal Animals – Abel Korzeniowski (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Hidden Figures – Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Zootopia – Michael Giacchino (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Moana – Mark Mancina, Opetaia Foa’I, Lin-Manuel Miranda (c-11/15) — Borderline —
• The BFG – John Williams (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – Michael Giacchino (c-12/14) — Borderline —
• Manchester by the Sea – Lesley Barber (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• A Monster Calls – Fernando Velázquez (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – James Newton Howard (c-11/15) — Borderline —
• The Magnificent Seven – James Horner (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Po – Burt Bacharach (c-12/14) — Borderline —
• Hacksaw Ridge – Rupert Gregson-Williams (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Hell or High Water – Nick Cave, Warren Ellis (c-12/14) — Borderline —
• Fences – Marcelo Zarvos (c-12/14) — Borderline —
• The Jungle Book – John Debney (c-12/5) — Borderline —
• Kubo and the Two Strings – Dario Marianelli (c-12/14) — Borderline —
• Allied – Alan Silvestri (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Alice through the Looking Glass – Danny Elfman (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
• Denial – Howard Shore (c-6/19) — Doubtful —
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Patriots Day – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• The Neon Demon – Cliff Martinez (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
• Hail, Caesar! – Carter Burwell (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
• Loving – David Wingo (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
• The Founder – Carter Burwell (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
• Sausage Party – Alan Menken, Christopher Lennertz (c-12/14) — Doubtful —

The Original Scores listed here are the most likely to be nominated. To conserve space, the full list of eligible scores has been moved to its own page, which you can access by clicking here.

Best Editing

• La La Land – Tom Cross (c-3/11, n-9/18, o-11/15) — Good —
•  
• Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (c-9/18, n-11/15) — Near Lock —
• Arrival – Joe Walker (c-9/14, n-12/5) — Near Lock —
• Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Good —
• Manchester by the Sea – Jennifer Lame (c-5/31, n-9/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Silence – Thelma Schoonmaker (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Lion – Alexandre de Franceschi (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Nocturnal Animals – Joan Sobel (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Jackie – Sebastián Sepúlveda (c-9/14) — Borderline —
• Sully – Blu Murray (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Patriots Day – Gabriel Fleming, Colby Parker Jr. (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• La La Land – Linus Sandgren (c-3/11, n-9/18, o-1/18) — Lock —
•  
• Moonlight – James Laxton (c-12/5, n-12/20) — Lock —
• Arrival – Bradford Young (c-9/14, n-11/15) — Good —
• Lion – Greig Fraser (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Silence – Rodrigo Prieto (c-5/31, n-5/31) — Borderline —
•  
• Hacksaw Ridge – Simon Duggan (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Nocturnal Animals – Seamus McGarvey (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Jackie – Stéphane Fontaine (c-9/14) — Borderline —
• Hail, Caesar! – Roger Deakins (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Sully – Tom Stern (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig, James Hambridge; Anna Pinnock (c-3/11, n-9/18, o-11/15) — Near Lock —
•  
• La La Land – David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (c-12/20, n-12/20) — Near Lock —
• Arrival – Patrice Vermette (c-1/18, n-1/18) — Good —
• Hail, Caesar! – Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh (c-3/11, n-5/19) — Borderline —
• Hidden Figures – Wynn Thomas; Missy Parker (c-9/18, n-1/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Jackie – Jean Rabasse; Véronique Melery (c-9/14) — Borderline —
• Doctor Strange – Charles Wood, John Bush (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Silence – Dante Ferretti; Francesca Lo Schiavo (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Café Society – Santo Loquasto, Regina Graves, Nancy Haigh (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Hacksaw Ridge – Barry Robison; Set Decorator TBD (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• The Handmaiden – Seong-hie Ryu (c-12/20) — Borderline —
• Fences – David Gropman, Rebecca Brown (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Rogue One – Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Kubo and the Two Strings – Nelson Lowry (c-1/18) — Doubtful —
• A Monster Calls – Eugenio Caballero; Pilar Revuelta (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Love & Friendship – Anna Rackard; Stuart Crinnion (c-12/5) — Doubtful —
• Nocturnal Animals – Shane Valentino, Meg Everist (c-1/18) — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• Jackie – Madeline Fontaine (c-9/14, n-9/18, o-11/15) — Good —
•  
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Colleen Atwood (c-3/11, n-9/18) — Borderline —
• Florence Foster Jenkins – Consolata Boyle (c-12/20, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• The Dressmaker – Marion Boyce (c-1/18, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Hail, Caesar! – Mary Zophres (c-3/11, n-1/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Kubo and the Two Strings – Deborah Cook (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• La La Land – Mary Zophres (c-12/20) — Borderline —
• Love & Friendship – Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh (c-12/5) — Borderline —
• Fences – Sharen Davis (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Captain Fantastic – Courtney Hoffman (c-12/20) — Borderline —
• Hidden Figures – Renee Ehrlich Kalfus (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Silence – Dante Ferretti (c-5/31) — Borderline —
• Rogue One – David Crossman, Glyn Dillon (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Allied – Joanna Johnston (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Hacksaw Ridge – Lizzy Gardiner (c-9/18) — Doubtful —
• Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – Colleen Atwood (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Rules Don’t Apply – Albert Wolsky (c-5/31) — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Star Trek: Beyond (c-3/11, n-5/19, o-12/21) — Good —
•  
• A Man Called Ove (c-12/21, n-12/21) — Good —
• Suicide Squad (c-3/11, n-12/21) — Borderline —
•  
• Deadpool (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Florence Foster Jenkins (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Hail, Caesar! (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• The Dressmaker (c-12/21) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final three nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound Mixing

• La La Land (c-3/11, n-5/19, o-1/18) — Lock —
•  
• Rogue One (c-3/11, n-9/18) — Near Lock —
• Hacksaw Ridge (c-9/18, n-12/20) — Good —
• Doctor Strange (c-3/11, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Arrival (c-9/14, n-9/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Sully (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Deepwater Horizon (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Lion (c-9/18) — Borderline —
• Patriots Day (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• The Jungle Book (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Captain America: Civil War (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Deadpool (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

• Arrival (c-9/14, n-9/18, o-11/15) — Borderline —
•  
• Hacksaw Ridge (c-9/18, n-9/18) — Borderline —
• Rogue One (c-3/11, n-9/18) — Borderline —
• Doctor Strange (c-3/11, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Sully (c-3/11, n-1/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Patriots Day (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Deepwater Horizon (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Star Trek: Beyond (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Deadpool (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Captain America: Civil War (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• The Jungle Book (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• The Birth of a Nation (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• Passengers (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• The BFG (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

• The Jungle Book (c-3/11, n-12/5, o-1/18) — Near Lock —
•  
• Rogue One (c-3/11, n-5/19) — Good —
• Doctor Strange (c-3/11, n-11/15) — Good —
• Arrival (c-9/14, n-9/18) — Good —
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (c-3/11, n-9/18) — Borderline —
•  
• Kubo and the Two Strings (c-12/5) — Borderline —
• Passengers (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Deepwater Horizon (c-3/11) — Borderline —
• Captain America: Civil War (c-3/11) — Doubtful —
• The BFG (c-3/11) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The films that were semi-finalists but did not make the final list of films above are listed below.

• Alice Through the Looking Glass (c-3/11)
• Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (c-3/11)
• Deadpool (c-3/11)
• Independence Day: Resurgence (c-3/11)
• Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (c-3/11)
• Star Trek: Beyond (c-3/11)
• Suicide Squad (c-3/11)
• Sully (c-12/5)
• Warcraft (c-3/11)
• X-Men: Apocalypse (c-3/11)

Best Foreign Language Film

• Toni Erdmann – Germany, Directed by: Maren Ade (c-10/11, n-12/5, o-12/15) — Near Lock —
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• A Man Called Ove – Sweden, Directed by: Hannes Holm (c-10/11, n-12/15) — Good —
• Land of Mine – Denmark, Directed by: Martin Zandvliet (c-10/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
• The Salesman – Iran, Directed by: Asghar Farhadi (c-10/11, n-10/11) — Borderline —
• Paradise – Russia, Directed by: Andrei Konchalovsky (c-10/11, n-12/15) — Borderline —
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• The King’s Choice – Norway, Directed by: Erik Poppe (c-10/11) — Borderline —
• My Life as a Zucchini – Switzerland, Directed by: Claude Barras (c-10/11) — Borderline —
• It’s Only the End of the World – Canada, Directed by: Xavier Dolan (c-10/11) — Borderline —
• Tanna – Australia, Directed by: Bentley Dean, Martin Butler (c-10/11) — Borderline —

The Foreign Language Films listed above were shortlisted by the Academy’s Foreign Language Branch, narrowed from the full list of submissions. To conserve space, the full list of submitted films has been moved to its own page, which you can access by clicking here.

Best Documentary Feature

• O.J.: Made in America (c-10/28, n-12/5, o-1/18) — Lock —
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• I Am Not Your Negro (c-10/28, n-10/28) — Good —
• Cameraperson (c-10/28, n-12/6) — Borderline —
• 13th (c-10/28, n-10/28) — Borderline —
• Hooligan Sparrow (c-10/28, n-1/18) — Borderline —
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• The Eagle Huntress (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Fire at Sea (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• The Ivory Game (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Tower (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Zero Days (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Weiner (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Gleason (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Life, Animated (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• The Witness (c-10/28) — Borderline —
• Command and Control (c-10/28) — Borderline —

The Documentary Features listed above were shortlisted by the Academy’s Documentary Branch, narrowed from the full list of eligible documentaries. To conserve space, the full list of submitted documentaries has been moved to its own page, which you can access by clicking here.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The White Helmets (c-10/26, n-10/26, o-10/26)
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• 4.1 Miles (c-10/26, n-1/18)
• Extremis (c-10/26, n-10/26)
• Joe’s Violin (c-10/26, n-10/26)
• Watani: My Homeland (c-10/26, n-1/18)
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• Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (c-10/26)
• Close Ties (c-10/26)
• Frame 394 (c-10/26)
• The Mute’s House (c-10/26)
• The Other Side of Home (c-10/26)

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

• Piper (c-11/23, n-11/23, o-11/23)
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• Blind Vaysha (c-11/23, n-11/23)
• Borrowed Time (c-11/23, n-11/23)
• Inner Workings (c-11/23, n-11/23)
• Pearl (c-11/23, n-11/23)
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• Happy End (c-11/23)
• The Head Vanishes (c-11/23)
• Once upon a Line (c-11/23)
• Pear Cider and Cigarettes (c-11/23)
• Sous Tes Doigts (c-11/23)

All of the Animated Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

• Nocturne in Black (c-11/23, n-11/23, o-1/18)
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• Bon Voyage (c-11/23, n-11/23)
• Le Femme et le TGV (c-11/23, n-11/23)
• Sing (Mindenki) (c-11/23, n-1/18)
• The Way of Tea (Les Frémissements du Thé) (c-11/23, n-11/23)
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• Ennemis Intérieurs (c-11/23)
• Graffiti (c-11/23)
• The Rifle, the Jackal, he Wolf and the Boy (c-11/23)
• Silent Nights (c-11/23)
• Timecode (c-11/23)

All of the Live Action Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.