Looking at Film from Every Angle

88th Academy Awards (2015): Winner Predictions

Final Update: February 26, 2016

AWARDS
6 3 1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – –	The Revenant Mad Max: Fury Road Amy Ave Maria Chau, beyond the Lines Cinderella Creed Inside Out Room Son of Saul Spotlight Star Wars: The Force Awakens The Big Short The Danish Girl The Hateful Eight The Hunting Ground World of Tomorrow

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

The Revenant (c-2/15) — Toss Up —

Spotlight — Toss Up —
The Big Short — Toss Up —
Mad Max: Fury Road — Spoiler —
Brooklyn — Doubtful —
Room — Doubtful —
The Martian — Long Shot —
Bridge of Spies — Long Shot —

Best Animated Film

Inside Out (c-5/7) — Guarantee —

Anomalisa — Spoiler —
Boy and the World — Long Shot —
When Marnie Was There — Long Shot —
Shaun the Sheep Movie — Long Shot —

Best Director

The Revenant – Alejandro González Iñárritu (c-2/10) — Likely —

Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller — Spoiler —
The Big Short – Adam McKay — Spoiler —
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy — Doubtful —
Room – Lenny Abrahamson — Long Shot —

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (c-10/5) — Guarantee —

Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs — Spoiler —
Matt Damon – The Martian — Doubtful —
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo — Doubtful —
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl — Long Shot —

Best Actress

Brie Larson – Room (c-1/11) — Certain —

Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn — Spoiler —
Cate Blanchett – Carol — Doubtful —
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years — Long Shot —
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

Sylvester Stallone – Creed (c-2/12) — Toss Up —

Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies — Toss Up —
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight — Toss Up —
Tom Hardy – The Revenant — Toss Up —
Christian Bale – The Big Short — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (c-2/8) — Toss Up —

Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs — Toss Up —
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight — Spoiler —
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight — Spoiler —
Rooney Mara – Carol — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (c-12/10) — Certain —

Straight Outta Compton – Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff — Spoiler —
Inside Out – Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie Del Carmen, Michael Arndt, Simon Rich — Spoiler —
Ex Machina – Alex Garland — Doubtful —
Bridge of Spies – Matt Charman, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short – Adam McKay, Charles Randolph (c-1/14) — Certain —

Room – Emma Donoghue — Spoiler —
Carol – Phyllis Nagy — Spoiler —
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby — Doubtful —
The Martian – Drew Goddard — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone (c-12/10) — Likely —

Carol – Carter Burwell — Spoiler —
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams — Spoiler —
Sicario – Johann Johansson — Doubtful —
Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

Til It Happens to You – The Hunting Ground (c-12/10) — Toss Up —

Writing’s On the Wall – Spectre — Toss Up —
Manta Ray – Racing Extinction — Toss Up —
Earned It – Fifty Shades of Grey — Doubtful —
Simple Song #3 – Youth — Long Shot —

Best Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road – Jason Ballantine (c-12/10) — Likely —

The Big Short – Hank Corwin — Spoiler —
The Revenant – Stephen Mirrione — Spoiler —
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey — Doubtful —
Spotlight – Tom McArdle — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki (c-1/14) — Certain —

Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale — Spoiler —
Carol – Edward Lachman — Spoiler —
Sicario – Roger Deakins — Doubtful —
The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson — Long Shot —

Best Production Design

Mad Max: Fury Road – Colin Gibson, Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson (c-1/14) — Toss Up —

Bridge of Spies – Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich — Toss Up —
The Revenant – Jack Fisk, Hamish Purdy — Spoiler —
The Danish Girl – Eve Stewart — Doubtful —
The Martian – Arthur Max, Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath — Doubtful —