Last Updated: February 19, 2015

AWARDS
4 – 2 – 1 – – – – – – – – – – – –	Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel American Sniper Whiplash Birdman Citizenfour Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 Feast Guardians of the Galaxy How to Train Your Dragon 2 Ida Interstellar Selma Still Alice The Imitation Game The Phone Call The Theory of Everything

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

• Boyhood (c-1/12) — Toss Up —
• Birdman — Toss Up —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel — Spoiler —
• American Sniper — Spoiler —
• The Imitation Game — Doubtful —
• Selma — Doubtful —
• The Theory of Everything — Doubtful —
• Whiplash — Doubtful —

Best Animated Film

• How to Train Your Dragon 2 (c-1/14) — Toss Up —
• Big Hero 6 — Toss Up —
• The Tale of the Princess Kaguya — Spoiler —
• Song of the Sea — Doubtful —
• The Boxtrolls — Doubtful —

Best Director

• Boyhood – Richard Linklater (c-1/11) — Toss Up —
• Birdman – Alejandro G. Inarritu — Toss Up —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson — Spoiler —
• The Imitation Game – Morten Tyldum — Long Shot —
• Foxcatcher – Bennett Miller — Long Shot —

Best Actor

• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (c-2/12) — Toss Up —
• Michael Keaton – Birdman — Toss Up —
• Bradley Cooper – American Sniper — Spoiler —
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game — Doubtful —
• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher — Long Shot —

Best Actress

• Julianne Moore – Still Alice (c-11/7) — Certain —
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl — Spoiler —
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild — Doubtful —
• Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night — Doubtful —
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (c-11/7) — Guarantee —
• Edward Norton – Birdman — Spoiler —
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher — Doubtful —
• Ethan Hawke – Boyhood — Doubtful —
• Robert Duvall – The Judge — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (c-1/14) — Certain —
• Emma Stone – Birdman — Spoiler —
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game — Doubtful —
• Laura Dern – Wild — Long Shot —
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

• The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-2/17) — Likely —
• Birdman — Spoiler —
• Boyhood — Spoiler —
• Nightcrawler — Doubtful —
• Foxcatcher — Long Shot —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Imitation Game (c-1/14) — Likely —
• American Sniper — Spoiler —
• Inherent Vice — Long Shot —
• The Theory of Everything — Spoiler —
• Whiplash — Spoiler —

Best Original Score

• The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-1/29) — Likely —
• The Theory of Everything — Spoiler —
• The Imitation Game — Spoiler —
• Mr. Turner — Doubtful —
• Interstellar — Long Shot —

Best Original Song

• Glory – Selma (c-1/14) — Toss Up —
• Everything Is Awesome – The Lego Movie — Toss Up —
• I’m Not Gonna Miss You – Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me — Spoiler —
• Lost Stars – Begin Again — Doubtful —
• Grateful – Beyond the Lights — Long Shot —

Best Editing

• Boyhood (c-2/19) — Toss Up —
• Whiplash — Toss Up —
• American Sniper — Toss Up —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel — Doubtful —
• The Imitation Game — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

• Birdman (c-12/22) — Likely —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel — Spoiler —
• Mr. Turner — Spoiler —
• Unbroken — Doubtful —
• Ida — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-12/22) — Guarantee —
• Mr. Turner — Spoiler —
• Into the Woods — Spoiler —
• The Imitation Game — Doubtful —
• Interstellar — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-2/18) — Likely —
• Into the Woods — Spoiler —
• Mr. Turner — Spoiler —
• Maleficent — Spoiler —
• Inherent Vice — Long Shot —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Guardians of the Galaxy (c-12/15) — Toss Up —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel — Toss Up —
• Foxcatcher — Toss Up —

Best Sound Mixing

• American Sniper (c-2/16) — Likely —
• Whiplash — Spoiler —
• Birdman — Spoiler —
• Interstellar — Spoiler —
• Unbroken — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

• American Sniper (c-2/16) — Likely —
• Birdman — Spoiler —
• Interstellar — Spoiler —
• Unbroken — Doubtful —
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies — Long Shot —

Best Visual Effects

• Interstellar (c-4/21) — Toss Up —
• Guardians of the Galaxy — Toss Up —
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes — Toss Up —
• X-Men: Days of Future Past — Spoiler —
• Captain America: The Winter Soldier — Doubtful —

Best Foreign Language Film

• Ida (c-1/14) — Toss Up —
• Leviathan — Toss Up —
• Wild Tales — Toss Up —
• Timbuktu — Spoiler —
• Tangerines — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Feature

• Citizenfour (c-12/2) — Likely —
• Last Days in Vietnam — Spoiler —
• Virunga — Spoiler —
• Finding Vivian Maier — Spoiler —
• The Salt of the Earth — Doubtful —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (c-12/23) — Toss Up —
• Joanna — Toss Up —
• Our Curse — Toss Up —
• The Reaper — Toss Up —
• White Earth — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

• Feast (c-11/24) — Toss Up —
• The Bigger Picture — Toss Up —
• Dam Keeper — Toss Up —
• Me and My Moulton — Toss Up —
• A Single Life — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

• The Phone Call (c-12/25) — Toss Up —
• Aya — Toss Up —
• Boogaloo and Graham — Toss Up —
• Butter Lamp — Toss Up —
• Parvaneh — Toss Up —