FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing its nominees for the 81st Annual Academy Awards on Thursday, January 22, 2009 at an obscenely early hour (to get as much coverage from the East Coast morning shows as possible). Some channels will broadcast it live like E! Entertainment Television (the only thing they’re really good for anymore) and CNN or other news channels if they see fit, but I will update this site just as soon after the announcement as I can.
Every year, I provide a primer for Oscar Nominations Morning, a way to help you get in the right frame of mind and understand what’s going on and when.
The most important thing to know before sitting down to the 5:35am Pacific announcement, is what order the categories will be announced in. To make it easier, I have put in order the categories below so you can just follow along as you need to. In addition, I have prepared a .pdf file you can print out and check off the nominees as they are announced (it’s what I usually do anyway).
Since 1991, Supporting Actor and Lead Actor have always been announced ahead of their associated counterparts. For the last two years, Supporting Actress has been read first and Lead Actress has been read first. So, we’ll go with the current trend.
Best Supporting Actress
The first sign of a wild and crazy morning could come in this first category. There are a number of names that could appear that would be surprising. The first name to be read off could be Amy Adams. This will prove a good sign for Doubt but certainly not guarantee it will get a Best Picture nomination. If she’s not first and Kathy Bates is first, then Revolutionary Road will take a spot in the Best Picture race where we haven’t really been expecting it in recent days.
Cruz could also be the first name announced. Her name will be followed by Davis, but then we get the possibility of surprises. Rachel Getting Married‘s chances have been drifting away with a shut out from the guilds. Rosemarie DeWitt getting a nod here (or Debra Winger) could be a sign that the film was far more popular than expected and Jonathan Demme will be a good bet to pick a Best Director nomination.
The third (or fourth) name on the list may be Taraji P. Henson. Her nomination (or lack thereof) may show the strength of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. If three actresses have been named already, Henson will be skipped and Tomei will be the fourth nominee. If there are only two, then either Henson or, in a surprise, Tilda Swinton, may be the third name on the list. The fourth and fifth names in any of these scenarios should be Marisa Tomei and Kate Winslet. If there are already four names announced, the fifth should be Winslet and if it’s not and Tomei gets the fifth slot, then we may be surprised to find Winslet nominated for lead for The Reader and not Revolutionary Road as we are all expecting.
If both Henson and Swinton get nominations, then look for the 14-nomination record set by All About Eve and tied by Titanic to go down to defeat. It’s doubtful both will as it will likely be either or neither.
Adams, (Bates), Cruz, Davis, (DeWitt), (Henson), (Swinton), Tomei, (Winger), Winslet
Best Supporting Actor
This is another category ripe for surprises. The first name out of the presenter’s mouth should be Josh Brolin, but if it’s Kevin Bacon or Robert Downey Jr., then we’ve got some serious surprises. Announcing Bacon first would be the kind of shock we haven’t seen at the Oscar nominations in some time. I doubt he will be read first, but if he is, then Frost/Nixon will have a far more solid nomination count than previous expected. Brolin could then be announced second, but all money is on him being read first.
If he isn’t read first, then it’s possible that not a single Supporting Actor from Milk will get a nomination and that means it most likely won’t be one of the films announced as Best Picture. Downey Jr. could also be skipped, as could my listed third name Franco. Hirsch has very little chance, but if his name is called, it will be third of fourth after his two Milk castmates. Should that happen and Brolin, Downey and Franco all have their names read, then Heath Ledger will fill in the fifth slot. However, I doubt that will happen and we’ll either have two or three names read before they reveal the name of Philip Seymour Hoffman as a nominee. Hoffman’s only chance at being shut out is the scenario with three Milk supporting nods and one for Downey.
It is unquestionable that Ledger will be the fourth of fifth nominee announced. If he’s third, then we’ve got a serious problem and either John Malkovich is nominated or some truly off the wall pick breaks into the contest, which will be even more shocking than a Bacon nod. But, if Ledger is the fourth name on the list (with Franco likely being left out), then we will most likely see Dev Patel, pigeonholed into the supporting category, come out as the fifth nominee. If he is, then I don’t think there’s anything that can stop the Slumdog Millionaire juggernaut. If he isn’t mention then, the prevailing sentiment is that either A) he’s a lead and he may appear in that category or B) the movie has begun losing steam and will crash.
(Bacon), Brolin, Downey Jr., Franco, (Hirsch), Hoffman, (Irwin), Ledger, (Malkovich), (Patel)
Best Actress
There are so few contenders in this category that you might think the choice would be easy, but it is far from that with at least 7 actresses all vying for the nomination with a good shot of getting it.
The first name on the list will tell us one thing: whether or not The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is heading for a record-setting or record-tying Oscar nomination tally. However, most of us expect Anne Hathaway to be the first name on the list followed by Sally Hawkins. If these are the second and third, then the next name won’t be Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo or Kristen Scott Thomas. It will be Meryl Streep and wrapped by Kate Winslet. If Hathaway is first and Hawkins second, then Jolie or Leo will be third. Scott Thomas is such a long shot at this point that her nomination would likely come at Sally Hawkins’ expense and she’d end up as the third nominee on the list.
Fourth and fifth will undoubtedly be Streep and Winslet. I don’t mention which film Winslet will get the nod for, as only the Supporting nominations will dictate. If she appears there for The Reader, then she’ll be nodded here for Revolutionary Road. Some think she might even get left out and if there are four names on the list before Streep’s name is read, then either Winslet or Streep will be locked out and my bet would be Winslet.
(Blanchett), Hathaway, Hawkins, Jolie, (Leo), (Scott Thomas), Streep, Winslet
Best Actor
Much like Best Actress, there are enough names on the list that could make it in, that someone is bound to feel left out.
The first person on that list is Leonardo DiCaprio, whose name would likely be read first if he were to get a nomination. The first name will either be his, Clint Eastwood’s or Richard Jenkins. If it’s not Richard Jenkins, then he might not even get a mention, a lot depends on whether DiCaprio, Eastwood or both are nominated. If both, then not only will Jenkins not be the third name, Brad Pitt won’t be in the list at all. Following Eastwood would be Frank Langella, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. If either DiCaprio or Eastwood is nominated then Jenkins should be the second name on the list. If it’s Ralph Fiennes or he’s the first name, The Reader will likely be Best Picture-nominated.
Once we find out who the first on the list is, we should know how the rest will go. Richard Jenkins is my prediction for first on the list. If that’s the case, then Frank Langella should be second. If he’s second, Langella is third, but if he’s third, then Langella may have missed a nomination. Langella could also be second or third on the list.
If Langella is shockingly first on the list, then either A) Dev Patel has managed to sneak into Best Actor or B) Michael Sheen will share a nomination with his film sparring partner. Dev Patel is the spoiler and if he’s anywhere on the list, it will be second or third. If they’ve gone through three names by that point, then he won’t be mentioned at all (you can also toss him from consideration if he picks up a nod in support).
The big question mark is Brad Pitt. For the film to be a true Best Picture contender, either he or Blanchett MUST get a nomination. If they don’t, then this will be the year of Slumdog Millionaire and nothing will be able to stop it. I expect Pitt, as the title character to get his first nod since 12 Monkeys. But, he has to be announced fourth. If four names have been read before him, then he’s out of luck and Mickey Rourke will take the fifth spot.
If Rourke is fourth, then there’s only one possibility left and it’s Sheen in the final position. Any other result would be shocking.
(Del Toro), (DiCaprio), (Eastwood), (Fiennes), Jenkins, Langella, (Patel), Penn, Pitt, Rourke, (Sheen)
Best Director
This category has tons of contenders, any five of which could be nominated. The key here will be what has come before and what might come after. There is most likely going to be four directors that match with the DGA, but there will be an odd-man out. There almost always is, but there is the potential it will be a five-for-five match-up with Best Picture, but I am doubtful.
First out of the gate may be Changeling. Clint Eastwood has surprised us before by getting last-minute momentum. However, I doubt Changeling will be that film and the first name out of the gate will likely be David Fincher for Benjamin Button. If he’s not nominated, then the book is closed on this year’s Oscar race and Slumdog Millionaire will have no competition whatsoever. It would also open the door for another surprise nod for Eastwood, but this time for Gran Torino which would then be the fourth or fifth nominee announced.
With Fincher going first, then the second person will either be Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight or Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon. If it’s both, then some names further down the list should be a bit scared, as there will only be two slots left at that point. Doubt coming up after Dark Knight or Benjamin Button will point to a Best Picture nomination for the film. His absence will tell us nothing.
The odd-man out director is likely to be read third or fourth. It could be Eastwood for Torino, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky or Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married. The determining factor will be Rosemarie DeWitt and Sally Hawkins. If DeWitt is nominated, then Demme is likely in. If Hawkins isn’t nominated, then Leigh is likely out.
Gus Van Sant could be third or fourth on the list for Milk. If he’s third, then the final two will be Demme, Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) or Andrew Stanton (WALL-E) and Danny Boyle. If his name is fourth, then Boyle will be fifth barring a shocking omission eliminating Boyle (and thus his film) from contention.
(Changeling), Button, (Dark Knight), Frost/Nixon, (Torino), (Happy-Go-Lucky), Milk, (Rachel Getting Married), (Reader), (Revolutionary), Slumdog, (WALL-E), Wrestler
Best Original Screenplay
By the time we get here, we’ll already know if Happy-Go-Lucky, Gran Torino or Changeling will be nominated. Leigh or Eastwood’s inclusion in Best Director would presage any of those films getting nominated.
If the first film announced isn’t Milk, then we will see Rachel Getting Married as the first to go and if Milk is the third film announced, then either WALL-E or The Wrestler (most likely the latter) will be gone. There are a number of films that could easily go first and a few of them would be slight surprises.
Following Milk should be Rachel Getting Married and then Vicky Cristina Barcelona. If those are the first three, then Wall-E and The Wrestler are solid. If Synecdoche, New York manages to come in third before Vicky then either WALL-E or The Wrestler will be gone.
(Burn), (Changeling), Torino, Happy-Go-Lucky, (Bruges), Milk, (Rachel), (Synecdoche), (Vicky), WALL-E, Wrestler
Best Adapted Screenplay
This is probably the shortest list I’ve ever put together for this category, but in all the talk, these are really the only seven titles that seem to come up.
The Writers Guild of America brought The Dark Knight into the equation where I wouldn’t have expected it at first, largely because it was based on comic books and not one specific source; However, if Dark Knight does appear in this category (could be at the expense of Doubt or Frost/Nixon, the two stage-to-screen adaptations), then its Best Picture nomination is assured.
Button, (Dark Knight), Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, (Revolutionary), Slumdog
Best Foreign Language Film
This category has no bearing on any other races, but it’s interesting to note what gets nominated. The first film announced should be either Baader Meinhof Complex or The Class. A lot will be determined on whether the controversy surrounding Baader effects its chances or not. It’s a strong contender for a nomination if it can get past that. After either or both of these, it should be Sweden’s Everlasting Moments and/or Canada’s The Necessities of Life. Revanche probably won’t get a nomination, nor will 3 Monkeys, but Tear This Heart Out appeals to period drama fans and Waltz with Bashir could be the first animated film nominated in this category or could suffer the same prejudice fate that kept Persepolis off the final list.
Baader, Class, (Departures), Everlasting, Necessities, (Revanche), Tear This Heart Out, (Monkeys), (Waltz)
Best Animated Film
There are only seven films of the 14 on the final list that could be selected. A lot will depend on the Animators branch and how close their ties are with various studios. Madagascar 2 and Tale of Despereaux seem to be the least likely of the seven followed by Horton Hears a Who. That leaves four films really trying to get the nod. The first title read will tell us who won nominations.
Bolt is the most controversial potential nominee as all of the other three big names are stronger contenders. The first title read should be Kung Fu Panda. If it’s not and Bolt was, then either Panda will be excluded or it will be the second name with WALL-E the third. If WALL-E is second to either Panda or Bolt, then the final name will be unquestionably Waltz with Bashir. If not, then WALL-E was announced third behind Bolt and Panda or another combination of two toons.
(Bolt), (Horton), Panda, (Madagascar), (Despereaux), WALL-E, Waltz
Best Picture
It’s a surprisingly contentious year when a guild and critics’ favorite like Milk can be considered one of the lesser likely nominees. By this point in the announcement, we should know what the final five will be.
Changeling requires an Eastwood nomination in Director and a Jolie nomination in Actress to get picked.
Benjamin Button is fairly well assured, but a lack of nod for Fincher, the screenplay or any of its actors will suggest a snub here.
The Dark Knight‘s place is guaranteed if Nolan is nominated as Best Director and further cemented if that’s accompanied by an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
Doubt will have to have all four actors nominated plus nods for both Director and Adapted Screenplay to get into this race.
Frost/Nixon seems to be the annual Ron Howard-does-Good film. It should earn a nomination with little effort, but if Howard isn’t picked up in Best Director or Langella doesn’t get a nod in Best Actor, it’s possible the film won’t make it. The nomination in Adapted Screenplay won’t have much bearing, but could be a sign.
Gran Torino reminds me an awful lot of Letters from Iwo Jima. By this time, most of us had written off the film as Flags of Our Fathers was thought to be his Oscar contender. However, at the last minute it jumped into the nominations pool. After Million Dollar Baby and Mystic River came into the Oscar race so late in the process and nabbed nods, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Torino pull off a surprise nomination. This will be foreshadowed by Eastwood getting a Best Director nod and the screenplay getting picked up in Original Screenplay. Eastwood getting into Best Actor won’t mean much unless it’s accompanied by those other two events.
Milk has proven to be quite popular, winning the Ensemble award at the Broadcast Critics awards (an award I expected to go to Doubt) and picking up unexpected nods at the Art Directors and Costume Designers Guilds. That should cement its spot in this race, but sadly, with so many “we’re fairly certain” nominees, it could succumb, but I don’t expect it to. Though, if Van Sant fails to get a Best Director nomination, none of the Supporting Actors get in or the Screenplay is ignored, then Milk is toast.
Rachel Getting Married‘s buzz has long faded and its chances at a Best Picture nomination are virtually nil. The only way it would get a nod is if we not only see Demme in Best Director and the screenplay in Original, but also if we have nods for DeWitt and/or Winger in addition to one for Hathaway. If Hathaway doesn’t get a nod, then the film is dead in the water and won’t even nab an odd-man-out Director mention.
The Reader has trouble in that critics have not warmed to it. Despite a reportedly powerful performance from Kate Winslet, the furor over the film surrounding Harvey Weinstein’s ego may have killed it before it had a chance. After all, it deals with the Holocaust in a different way and would play well to Academy sensibilities. Look for a required nod for Stephen Daldry and the screenplay for it get mentioned here.
Revolutionary Road seems to be this year’s Far From Heaven. Both films borrowed heavily from Douglas Sirk’s style and both could suffer the same fate with only one of the main actors getting nominated and, like with Far From Heaven, it would be the male lead (Leonardo DiCaprio compared with Dennis Quaid), not the female lead (Kate Winslet following Julianne Moore), that got the axe. Still, it would require Sam Mendes getting nominated for Best Director for this film to be really considered a contender, though a nomination for DiCaprio could help matters.
Slumdog Millionaire is guaranteed this slot. It’s the ONLY film this year that doesn’t have a chance to be knocked off. It would be the biggest shock of the year for it not to get the nod and the only way you could see it coming is if Boyle and the film’s screenplay fail to get nominated.
WALL-E suffers from ghettoizing. It has been stuffed into the Animated Film category and doesn’t have the level playing field that Beauty and the Beast had. There was similar talk last year that Ratatouille might escape the Animated Film category and earn a Best Picture nomination, but it failed to do so like I’m pretty sure WALL-E will. Still, there is rumor and it is exceedingly well liked. That along with its testament to silent filmmaking and other aspects of film history, it could be the first computer-animated film to earn a Best Picture nomination and only the second animated film in history. You can know this is coming if Andrew Stanton gets a Best Director nomination.
The Wrestler is another film that seems like it could shock us with an inclusion, but is not likely to do so. To get a Best Picture nomination, the film would have to earn both a screenplay and Best Director nomination for Darren Aronofsky. And even then, there is no guarantee.
I think you can draw your own conclusions here and follow the breadcrumbs to pick the Best Picture nominees as they are announced.
(Changeling), Button, Dark Knight, (Doubt), Frost/Nixon, (Torino), Milk, (Rachel), (Reader), (Revolutionary), Slumdog, (WALL-E), (Wrestler)
I hope the above has proven helpful and will help you formulate your own opinions about the race for the top categories. At the top of the page is a link to the .pdf containing all the races that will be announced on Oscar Morning with a handy checklist and my picks in bold (these are subject to change up until next Wednesday). And enjoy Oscar Morning like many of us do!
