And so we come to the end. With only six more categories to cover, time has dwindled so far down that only three more days remain until the 81st Academy Awards presentation. With so many predictabilities going for this year’s race, we are left to the presentation itself to provide surprises. One of those things they are trying differently is that presenters haven’t been announced to the ceremony. While it makes it hard to draw people in, it takes away some of the spontaneity (that the truncated awards season of the past few years has done more to crush than anything else).
Additionally, show runners Bill Condon and Lawrence Mark have promised several new takes on the presentation style, including a reliance on the show as a “this is the year that was” celebration as opposed to a “history of film” celebration. While this has promise, I hate think that the great and glorious past of the medium won’t have nearly as much part in the show as it used to. Of course, the suggestion is there that this will mean fewer, if not zero, montages.
One of the year’s certain welcome changes is that microphones will be turned off during the In Memorium segment so home viewers will be allowed to honor the year’s dearly departed in peace and without audience influence over which are the most noteworthy names. It gives everyone who passed equal billing instead of a lack of balance.
But, that’s the show and I’m certain I’ll have more to say about it next week. But for now, here are the final six categories in my countdown to the Oscars.
Supporting Actor
How do you spell lock? L-E-D-G-E-R. If there’s one sure thing outside of a Slumdog Millionaire Best Picture victory, it’s a win by the late thespian for his career-capping turn as the Joker in The Dark Knight. It is so exceedingly unlikely that he’ll lose the award that anyone else winning will immediately invoke talks of scandal. But who actually could sneak in and win the day? That’s not such an easy question.
Michael Shannon has to be the least likely. His performance in Revolutionary Road was relatively unexpected as he had only an outside chance of getting nominated, but he did. His turn is also quite brief, but that can actually help a nominee if they can get a compelling, likeable and powerful performance out of that short span. However, his character is so unlikable that a win for him would be a tribute to his career as a character actor and for no other reason.
Philip Seymour Hoffman appears in what is, in terms of breadth, a lead role. While I believe he could be easily considered a supporting character, many others disagree. But the one thing he has over almost all of his competition is screen time. Outside of perhaps Robert Downey Jr., his performance probably has the most on-screen audience face time. But, he won an Oscar all too recently for Capote, an award many are probably questioning till this day and him winning again against Heath Ledger would create an amazing stir.
What an amazing two years Josh Brolin has had. From the critical success of No Country for Old Men to his appearance as President George W. Bush in Stone’s W., Brolin, the offspring of longtime actor James Brolin and with a stepmother the likes music and screen legend Barbra Streisand, he seems to have a lot of good genes and some great advice and has parlayed that into an Oscar nomination for Milk. This could be a good category to tell us if Milk has a chance at upsetting in Best Picture because a win here would not only be a shock, but it may portend things to come.
Still, the most likely to eclipse Ledger in this category, if anyone can, is Robert Downey Jr. If there’s an actor who’s had a better year than Brolin, it’s Downey Jr. From the box office success of Iron Man to the box office success and Oscar nomination for Tropic Thunder, his is a career turnaround that many in the industry wish they could achieve. But, his film isn’t the kind that ends up with Oscars. Like Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of Black Pearl brought Johnny Depp his first Oscar nomination but not a win, this is just the start of a new ball for Downey Jr. who, if he can keep things up, may finally earn an Oscar long after his first nod for Chaplin back in the 1990s.
But, really, when it all comes down to it. Even looking at the above factors, there is no question that the Oscar will go to Ledger. He’s the stuff of legends and although James Dean never managed anything out of his two posthumous nominations, Ledger looks to have so little competition that the real guessing game is who will accept the Oscar for him.
Supporting Actress
From a sure thing to a toss up, Best Supporting Actress has to be the most contentious of this year’s top six categories. A plausible case could be made for each of the five ladies to win. So, I’ll go through them in the order I think they are most likely to achieve that goal starting with the least likely.
While I hate to think she’s the least likely, it’s more difficult to come up with a scenario for Taraji P. Henson to win the Oscar than for anyone. The only plausible suggestion I could have is her film’s 13 Oscar nominations. While nary a guarantee, it’s the only thing that really gives her a chance. She doesn’t have a lead-actor’s screen time. She doesn’t have an explosive “give me an Oscar” scene in the film. If anything, what hurts her most is that her performance seems rooted too far in the past, conjuring up images of matronly Hattie McDaniel in Gone With the Wind. Whereas McDaniel became the first actor of color to claim an Oscar, Henson is not likely to follow in those footsteps.
Amy Adams might seem like the least likely to win, but she has one thing Hanson doesn’t: a previous Oscar nomination. Sure, she lost for Junebug and failed to get nominated for Enchanted last year, but if there’s a rising star among this year’s Supporting Actress nominees, she’s it. As she earns more and more accolades, she’ll eventually join her contemporaries on the Oscar stage, but this isn’t the performance that will likely bring Doubt a victory.
Next on my list is Marisa Tomei. When she won her Oscar for My Cousin Vinny, rumors abounded that Jack Palance, in his aging haze, read out the wrong name from the envelope, Tomei has consistently proven what her fellow actors may have already known…that she had acting chops. The negative stigma should have gone away when she picked up her nomination for In the Bedroom, but she continues to carry that negative mantle. What better way for the Academy to lay those rumors to rest than to give her a second Oscar. It would be a deserved victory (even if she isn’t the best of the year, she is one of the best) and it would be one of the highlights of the evening. The problem is that only two actresses in history have managed to Supporting Actress trophies. Shelley Winters did it and Dianne Wiest did it. This isn’t the knockout kind of performance that can break that kind of history.
Which brings us to Penelope Cruz. At first glance, she seems to fall into two major Supporting Actress success molds. The first is that she is an attractive woman and it’s said that this category favors beauty as many male actors will vote for her just because they’d like to do her. And with her lesbianic scene in the film Vicky Cristina Barcelona, it may be just the impetus to push her over the top. The second is that she gives a critically acclaimed performance that has garnered a number of precursors. Until Kate Winslet entered the race for The Reader thanks to her Golden Globe and SAG nominations, Cruz was talked about as the leading contender. However, as Winslet stepped in, her chances dwindled. Now that Winslet’s out of the race, you would expect her to resume her frontrunner status. However, her star may have faded too fast. Much like Amy Ryan succumbing to Tilda Swinton, Cruz could fail utterly to win the big award. But Cruz managed to win the one award that eluded Ryan and signaled Swinton’s likely victory: The British Academy of Film & Television Arts award. That right there could clinch it and I’d say that the race is exceedingly tight between her and my pick to win on Sunday night.
And that is Viola Davis. A veteran (at least as much of a veteran as anyone in this category could be), Tony-winning actress, Davis’ brief but powerful turn in Doubt has been one of the things most people watching the film have raved over. Even Meryl Streep, who earned several strong notices, never managed to earn the level of praise (though she did win more awards) than Davis. Akin to the short-but-exceptional turns that brought Oscars to Judi Dench and Beatrice Straight, we could see another instance this year with a win for Davis. And, I think this will be the one award for the night that will go to Doubt. But, if it doesn’t, then perhaps another surprise is in store in the Best Actress category.
Actress
Meryl Streep was heavily favored to take home her third Oscar after a record-continuing fifteen nominations for her performance in Doubt. And then the unthinkable occurred. All season, Kate Winslet had been mentioned as Lead Actress for Revolutionary Road and Supporting Actress for The Reader. Then, she bucked advertising tradition, earning a Best Actress nomination for The Reader instead of Revolutionary Road. Actors, undoubtedly sick of category gerrymandering by publicists, decided to shake things up and put Winslet in for The Reader, a role many said was really a lead despite Harvey Weinstein’s insistence that it was Support. Thus, Streep’s chances at a third Oscar were dashed.
But, that’s not the end. Some said Melissa Leo and Angelina Jolie were battling it out for the fifth slot in the race, but it was Sally Hawkins who was jockeying for the fifth slot. Leo’s turn in Frozen River is a critics’ darling and Jolie’s performance in Changeling was the stuff of name-intimidates-art. But, Jolie was actually quite good and after the snub last year for A Mighty Heart, she was secured a spot in the nominations. That will be her reward and it will also be Leo’s.
Anne Hathaway was closing in on Streep late in the race and many thought she could pull through with a win applying the maxim that young actresses were more likely to win this category than middle-aged veterans. Of course, this was all thrown off kilter when Winslet showed up on scene and brought both a long history of strong performances to the table, but also the youth factor eclipsing the rising star of Hathaway. While she could still benefit from disagreements between voters over whether to honor Streep or Winslet, her chances are almost entirely dashed at this point, though she does remain a potential spoiler in the race.
Now that Winslet has been recognized for awhile for The Reader, the novelty may have worn off. Streep seems to be gaining ground in terms of chatter and while some may feel that after six Oscar nominations by the age of 33 deserves some kind of recognition, there will be others who feel that 15 nominations and only two Oscars means Streep deserves it more. After all, with six nods, it’s very likely Winslet will end up a nominee again and while most would probably agree that Streep will too, this is that kind of Streep-disappearing-into-character role that she is famous for. So, while it may seem like Winslet’s the frontrunner and I give her the edge, it’s only a slight edge because she could go home empty-handed again while the living legend that is Streep joins the ranks of Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan and Katharine Hepburn as a triple-acting-Oscar winner.
Actor
Forget about Brad Pitt. Forget about Richard Jenkins. The nominations for those two individuals, for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Visitor respectively, are their rewards.
So too, may be Frank Langella’s first nomination ever for his role as Richard Nixon in Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon. He could still spoil the whole race and win, but his chances have diminished steadily since he became the talk of the circuit early this year.
Between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke, the battle is fierce and is proving to be one of the more exciting races in the game. Penn has delivered beloved performance after beloved performance. His nominations have shown that he is well liked in Hollywood, for getting a nod for a movie as poorly received as I Am Sam is a feat in and of itself. He is the closest thing to royalty the Oscars have these days with Meryl Streep as the reigning queen. On top of that, his performance in Milk has earned him countless awards, including the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actor. He has only one Oscar, which means he’s looked at as if he needs another one. Plus, he blended so effectively into the role of Harvey Milk that many actors will be ready to give him accolades. And, if it were just this, then he’d be holding the Oscar Sunday without doubt.
But, there is a huge problem with that outcome. No one is taking into account Mickey Rourke. Playing a role that is almost perfectly suited to him in The Wrestler and one that seems to mirror his career implosion in the 1990s, he has quietly amassed a near-equal number of mention as Best Actor this year from various critics groups. His win at the BAFTAs also presages good things for the actor. But there’s one thing Academy members don’t like. They don’t like people acting like asses. While they don’t mind buffoons (see Roberto Benigni), they really don’t like their Oscar winners to be foul-mouthed and ill tempered. It’s why many believe that Russell Crowe has been unable to receive further Oscar recognition. But still, there are plenty of actors in Hollywood that can only dream of a career comeback like Rourke’s. It’s an amazing Cinderella story that could do well as a movie in and of itself. But, the bad boy image plays heavily against him and with the four-letter words he expelled at the BAFTAs and his eliciting of the middle finger from his director Darren Aronofsky at the Golden Globes, he may just not be palatable for enough Oscar voters.
Penn is my pick to win this award, but I would not be at all shocked, nor would I feel it was undeserved, if Rourke managed to pick up the trophy.
Director
Best Picture and Best Director are intimately tied. Few splits have occurred over the years, but when they do, it’s seen as an unusual event. Why? I’m not so sure. This year, I think we’ll be back to the same rote Best Director = Best Picture maxim. Danny Boyle has won numerous awards for Best Director, including the prestigious DGA award. But therein lies its one deficit.
It used to be that the Directors Guild of America matched the Oscar winner perfectly every time. But, then some set backs started happening. Before I go into specifics, I’ll start by excluding the first two years of the awards, which saw the 1948 DGA winner (Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter to Three Wives) winning the subsequent year’s 1949 Oscar.
1968 was the first actual split with Anthony Harvey winning the DGA for The Lion in Winter and Sir Carol Reed taking home the Oscar for Oliver!. After that, it seemed a once-a-decade phenomenon that the DGA didn’t match Oscar. In 1972, DGA winner Francis Ford Coppola lost the Oscar for The Godfather to Bob Fosse’s Cabaret. Then, in 1985, Steven Spielberg’s DGA win for The Color Purple didn’t even translate into an Oscar nomination. The award went to Sydney Pollack for Out of Africa. It didn’t happen again until 1995 when, once again, the DGA winner, Ron Howard for Apollo 13, failed to secure a nod and the Oscar went instead to Mel Gibson for Braveheart. But their streak would soon come to an end…
In the 2000s, it’s already happened twice. Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon lost to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic in 2000 and then Rob Marshall lost the Oscar for Chicago to Roman Polanski for The Pianist in 2002. Within the span of ten years, the DGA lost some of its clout. But, since 2002, it has not occurred again. The DGA seems to be firmly back in the business of predicting Oscars and I don’t see why that should change this year which should bring Danny Boyle and Oscar for Slumdog Millionaire.
But, if you’re curious who could end up spoiling this little race? There are a number of individuals who could do it. Start by tossing Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon. His nomination is his reward and the Academy generally likes to give this award to a film that has an actual shot at Best Picture, which Frost/Nixon does not. The next person likely out of the race is Stephen Daldry’s The Reader. It is possible that the Academy will pull a Polanski and give Daldry an Oscar for a Holocaust film, but The Reader seems to be getting drubbed heavily by audiences and critics alike. And while his well publicized fracas with Harvey Weinstein may be a small factor, it’s more likely to result in Daldry picking up a Tony for Billy Elliot the Musical in June instead.
That leaves two relatively well known directors who could very well benefit from an anti-Slumdog vote. David Fincher has gotten nearly the entire credit for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Even those critics who dislike the film itself give props to Fincher for his masterful work. That certainly could help as if you look at the Polanski and Soderbergh wins, you’ll see that the Academy clearly ignored the frontrunner in favor of giving the trophy to an established director with a noteworthy oeuvre. The problem is that Boyle has a similar career and thus may mitigate much of the praise for Fincher’s work.
Then there’s Gus Van Sant. While I think Fincher has a better shot at toppling Boyle, Van Sant could easily spoil the whole affair (and even presage a bigger surprise at the end of the night). His film is well respected. His film is topical. His career is just as noteworthy as Fincher’s and Boyle’s. It could result in a win for him. After all, of the three, he actually has a previous nomination. The topicality of the film Milk might also propel it to victory, but I’m anticipating something more like a reverse of 2005 with Boyle winning this award and a shocker in Best Picture.
Picture
Which brings us to the last category of the night. The timpani has always been one of the most exciting aspects of this award. The nominees are announced slowly to applause as the timpani rolls grow in volume. Then, with a final pronouncement, the entire year is put to an end and the Best Picture winner, for good or for worse, is crowned.
The crown should be passed to the crowd pleaser Slumdog Millionaire. It’s swept up so many precursor prizes that it makes films like Schindler’s List, The English Patient and The Lord of the Rings look like independent films. But, the Academy has a tendency to reject the frontrunners…at least when they disagree with their idea of quality. This is most recently exemplified in the surprise victory of Crash, a slight film to be sure, over the precursor steamroller of Brokeback Mountain. How could a film with such a pedigree succumb to a film about race relations in Los Angeles…a film which most agree was not that astute in its observations? For most of us, we’re certain there was a touch of homophobia to the decision. When Jack Nicholson can proudly say “I voted for Brokeback”, you would think the rest of Hollywood and the Academy would have agreed. Yet, it did not happen.
There were reports ahead of it that voters like Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis refused to even watch the film because it dealt with homosexuals. And while the gay theme certainly wasn’t the only factor (some suggest that perhaps the destruction of the cowboy mythos was another issue involved), it probably contributed more strongly to the victory.
This year, you don’t really have a frontrunner with such negative sentiment from members. The worst thing that could be said about Slumdog Millionaire is that the film has been praised to death. People are getting sick of hearing about the film. Yet, it will still win. Why is that? Because many members of the Academy probably hadn’t heard of Slumdog Millionaire before its roll through the precursors. Some of them may not have even heard of it before nominations were announced. Regardless of that fact, it still remains a solid force at the box office, it makes voters feel good about themselves during an economic crisis and many of those voters don’t see a sufficient alternative.
Thus, “it is written”, the slogan from the film itself, may be the truth after all. However, there is always the chance of an upset. It grows decreasingly likely as the days dwindle, but it’s always there. What could pull a surprise victory?
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is the most nominated film of the year and it’s just as rare that the most nominated flick doesn’t also pick up Best Picture. There are a few such instances in recent years, but more often than not, that’s the case. It’s also the top film at the box office among the nominees. Slumdog still has about $30 M to go to catch up (a total that will likely occur after the Oscar winners are announced). But, it seems like the film that is tops at the box office is most often not the film that picks up the top prize.
Frost/Nixon and The Reader are quite lucky to be nominated. Few thought The Reader could land nominations for Weinstein after his ego took control quite visibly during the run up to the season, but when you pair the Holocaust with icons like Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella who both died during the production of the film, you have a surefire Oscar nominee for Best Picture. A win is doubtful. Even the Holocaust-set The Pianist couldn’t manage to take Best Picture after it successfully sniped Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director. People want to be entertained as much as they want to be preached to (which could also explain why Brokeback lost to Crash and the films since then have all been crowd pleasers of some type). Frost/Nixon is that little film that gets a nomination but never wins.
Which brings us to the film that I think has the best chance, though an infinitely small one, to triumph at this year’s Oscars. Milk combines some of the Academy’s favorite genres: biopic and political commentary. While these kinds of films don’t generally win Best Picture, the fact that California’s Amendment 8 passed this past year only stokes the fire of a film like Milk reversing the trend against gays that has been occurring in recent years. Those voters who picked Brokeback may also see this as an attempt to recognize gays and their sociopolitical struggles. Then there are others who may want to jump further onto that bandwagon in order to stand up against measures like Amendment 8. Then, there are the anti-Slumdog folks who may just say “enough!” and put their votes behind Milk as it is the most likely to pick up a large pool of votes.
However, in the end, you can’t take down a film that is exceedingly well liked and lacks any real measure of controversy. It will also likely cap a resurgence in popularity of the Bollywood genre, which hasn’t really gained much traction with Hollywood and, thanks to a film like Slumdog Millionaire, may now finally get its due.
While I, personally, will be hoping for a shocker at the end of the night. I’m not going to hold my breath. There are many things about this year’s awards that just seem rather boring and while I’m interested in seeing what Condon and Mark do, I also can’t wait for this Oscar season to be over. We can then look forward to next year and a, hopefully, more suspenseful, or at least more enjoyable, Oscar season.
-Wesley Lovell (February 19, 2009)
