I’m adding to the coverage I am posting this year, though the expansion is relatively minimal. In previous years, because of lack of information, I often skipped Documentary Short Subject, Animated Short Film and Live Action Short Film categories. I’ll be hitting those up, even if briefly, in this article along with my traditional second-tier categories of Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Original Score, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay.
Half of these categories are integral parts of the Best Picture race. Others aren’t even remotely associated. However, most of these categories (with the exception of the music ones) are often unimportant to many non-Oscar enthusiasts. At least with the categories I covered yesterday, some of them are quite noticeable to audiences and often have the most potential for mundane viewers to watch and understand.
Documentary Feature
Predicting what are essentially juried awards is one of the most difficult aspects to guessing the year’s Oscar winners. This category along with the next four I’ll talk about, fall into that category. Although any Academy members is eligible to vote, they must watch all of the nominees in each category either at Academy-sponsored screenings or another form of exhibition. The only problem is watching them on DVD or videocassette is specifically prohibited. That means that those busy, working members of the Academy aren’t likely to get to vote, but sometimes are. The constant flux of the voter pool can make predictions in these categories exceedingly difficult.
The odds-on favorite for this category has to be Man on Wire, a film which swept most critics groups awards. It doesn’t seem, on the face of it, to be that engaging a documentary, but its partisans are adamant about its power. The film concerns a man who defies the law in various countries tightrope-walking between famous and tall buildings. Most of the film centers on his struggles to do so between the Twin Towers in New York City. The other films in the category each have chances to win, but ultimately it’s all a matter of how close voters agree with critics…after all, the critically beloved Capturing the Friedmans wasn’t able to take the trophy from Errol Morris.
Last year’s rather anomalous victory for Taxi to the Dark Side could presage a change in the controversial nature of this category. However, the only politically-charged film that could compare is Trouble the Water about some of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, but it hasn’t received nearly the universal praise that Man on Wire has. The Garden, about an L.A. community garden threatened by bulldozers just seems a little too fluffy for Oscar voters; Werner Herzog’s Antarctic excursion documentary Encounters at the Far End of the World isn’t likely to follow March of the Penguins’ webbed paw prints; and The Betrayal, about a Laotian family forced to emigrate because of U.S. air raids on the country, may be politically-sound, but it’s been virtually invisible this awards season.
Documentary Short Subject
I am admittedly less knowledgeable about these films than any of these other categories. Finding information is very difficult. However, in looking at the titles and briefs about the subjects of these films, I can’t help but feel The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306 will be the winner. It’s largely based on the environment the country found itself in during the last year. With all the hubbub over the first African American elected president of the United States, what more fitting correlation could there be than a film about the last surviving witnesses of the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. should win the trophy in this category.
However, I’ve got a spotty track record with this category, so any one of the other three could still win. Smile Pinki appeals to the warm-fuzzy voters in the Academy; The Final Inch is about a group of individuals trying to eradicate polio from the globe and the various methods they use to try and accomplish this goal; and The Conscience of Nhem En, by past Oscar winner Steve Okazaki, about the man who took photographic records of the thousands of people forced through one of the Khmer Rouge’s processing centers in Cambodia.
Any of these could strike Academy voters’ fancies at any moment, but my prediction will be Witness simply because it feels more topical than the rest.
Animated Short Film
I’ll go ahead and admit to a bias in this category. Presto is the only one of the five shorts nominated that I’ve seen and I laughed hysterically. It’s a rather simple film that tells its jokes well like the Oscar-winning Pixar short For the Birds. The problem is: that was the last time a Pixar short won this award. Seven years is a long time, but unlike the other contenders since then, this one is a real crowd pleaser.
However, this category is famed for its recognition of unique design styles and strange concepts. It isn’t enough to just be funny to win this award. Pixar’s film, about a rabbit who takes control of his carrot-tempting magician to hilarious effect, is traditional computer animation; This Way Up is about an undertaker and his son who face turmoil when a boulder crushes their hearse and is done in 3D animation; Lavatory – Lovestory is a traditionally hand drawn animated film done entirely in black-and-white with the occasional splash of color and is about a washroom attendant who tries to track down the individual who left a bouquet of red roses in her tip jar; Oktapodi is also computer animated and follows the story of two octopi who flee from an overzealous chef through a streets of a small Greek village; La Maison en Petits Cubes is a more traditional hand-drawn film about an old man assessing his life as the world around him floods.
None of the films have any unusual or eclectic animation elements to them. Oktapodi is more angular while This Way Up is dark and brooding. Maison en Petits Cubes seems to use a watercolor-style palette for its colors while Lavatory uses an absolute minimum of color. Then there’s Presto which has the fine details of all other Pixar creations. It’s hard to pick and while I must go with Presto as it is the only one I’ve seen, any of the others could win, but I’d pick either Maison or This Way Up to pick up the prize. The former could win simply for being relatable to most older Academy voters who have very little to do BUT watch the nominees in these categories. The latter could win for being an unusual and reportedly epic story that is likely filled with lots of dark humor.
Live Action Short Film
For this category, I made a knee-jerk selection when nominations came out solely based on the overriding subjects of the film, giving it to the somber Holocaust-themed short Spielzeugland (Toyland). Every time I read the synopsis about a mother who lies to her young son about where his best friend has gone when she knows full well he’s been taken to a concentration camp, it makes more sense as a winner, but will the Academy want to go maudlin in its choice here? Will the Holocaust-adoring Academy continue that trend even in the smallest of categories?
As its competition, there’s Auf der Strecke (On the Line) about a stalker who allows the love interest of a woman he’s stalking die when he could have saved him and the regrets the decision. We have New Boy about a African boy and his experiences as he moves to a new school. Manon on the Asphalt is about a bicyclist who has an out-of-body experience when she crashes and watches as her friends and family learn of the tragedy. And finally, there’s Pig about a woman visiting a man she hasn’t seen in 17 years in order to settle an old score.
So, our subjects are Holocaust drama, stalker drama, fish out of water drama, deathbed drama or revenge/reconciliation drama. It’s hard to pick just one as they all seem to be rather morose subjects. It honestly could be any of these, so your guess is about as good as mine. I still go with Toyland because it sounds like the most interesting one of the lot.
Foreign Language Film
I may not have the familiarity with this category as I do with many others, I’m still more familiar with it than the four categories I just covered.
A lot in this category depends on how the film captures the voter. Waltz with Bashir’s struggle is that it’s a documentary. It has a narrative, but it’s not the type of narrative that Oscar voters tend to recognize. Still, it’s pro-Israel sentiments could bolster its chances. The Baader Meinhof Complex, about Germany’s terrorist group The Red Army Faction, a group that organized bombings, robberies, kidnappings and other bits of mayhem during the 1960s and 1970s, seems a bit vicious for Academy voters whose selections here tend to be more universal in terms of scope and less about being purely entertaining.
Austria’s Revanche is in the same vein as Baader but is more domestic in scope about an ex-con and his relationship with a Ukranian prostitute, their involvement in a bank robbery and his attempts to reconcile his crimes. The Academy might go for this kind of film, but is it too dark and brooding for the Academy? But is it uplifting enough for them? I’m not so sure, but it’s a distinct possibility. Departures is the Japanese entry about a cellist whose orchestra is dissolved and he’s forced to figure out where he wants to go with his life. This does kind of fit the Academy’s style of late, which is films that tend towards sorrow and life-altering events.
But, I still believe that this one is for France’s The Class to lose. The film is about a teacher who influences his mixed-race students through his passion for education. It seems to be a Stand and Deliver kind of film, which for the regular categories doesn’t seem to interest the Academy, but as a Foreign Language film, it seems almost perfect. No doubt the film features a lot of discussions on accepting one another despite our differences and since it thus adds a bit of emotion to the mix, it sounds like the perfect choice for the Academy to make.
Animated Feature
Three films, but only one winner. I don’t think there’s a prognosticator out there who doesn’t believe WALL-E won’t win this award. It has critical success. It has box office success. It has Pixar’s award-winning team (since the category was created, only Monsters, Inc. and Cars haven’t won Pixar this award). The big problem? It may not be animated enough…at least that’s what the Annie Awards said when they ignored WALL-E in every single category and gave a clean sweep to Kung Fu Panda.
That decision turned out to be one of the bigger shocks this awards season and may be fortuitous for the film. However, Kung Fu Panda seems more like a painterly movie than a literary one, something that WALL-E was all over. WALL-E, in addition to feeling like a literary piece, also acts as a piece of film history, using old techniques of silent films to tell a complex romantic narrative. It has all the signs of an Oscar classic, something Kung Fu Panda can’t really claim.
But what should happen if the pro-WALL-E group and the Kung Fu Panda group share a handful of members who can’t decide which film to honor? Could Bolt actually win? I doubt that would happen. When Cars and Happy Feet were racing to the gold, it was the perfect chance for Monster House to sneak in, but it couldn’t. And Bolt just doesn’t seem like an Oscar-winning film. Matter of fact, while I could see a strange situation where Kung Fu Panda took home the trophy in a shocking twist over WALL-E, Bolt winning would be an almost apocalyptic event that people would be angry about for decades.
Original Song
For the third time in history, the rule that allows for only three Original Song nominees was invoked (a rule that changes in application each time it’s enacted, this time based on individual ratings of the song nominees limiting the number, not just a voluntary, not-enough-available limitation). Why, I don’t understand because the non-nominated “The Wrestler” was a very good song. But, this year, we have two nominations for Slumdog Millionaire and one for WALL-E. This category is what will prevent Slumdog from doing a clean sweep. There has never been a tie in this category and I don’t expect that to change now.
“Down to Earth” seems like just the animated film song that doesn’t win this award. It’s not particularly exciting and doesn’t have the musical aerobics of past winners. That leaves the two songs from Slumdog.
I’ll confess that after having seen the film, I couldn’t tell you what or where the song “O Saya” is in the film. “Jai Ho” on the other hand, is fairly memorable, quite bouncy and is the last song anyone whose seen the film will get. That finality and the exuberance of the production number should be enough to bring “Jai Ho” the Oscar.
Original Score
It this were a category about which film had the most evocative and beautiful score, not only would The Curious Case of Benjamin Button win, but Lust, Caution would have been nominated. Since the latter was not the case, I don’t expect the former to occur either. It’s a gorgeous score, but not quite as boisterous as the likely winner of this category Slumdog Millionaire. While I can’t exactly place my finger on why people think this was the best score of the year, there’s little doubt in my mind at this point that A.R. Rahman won’t pick up the trophy.
Defiance is one of those veteran composer nominations that rarely results in a victory. WALL-E is more of an accomplishment in sound effects and storytelling than it is in music and most voters probably won’t give it a second thought.
That puts the contest between Danny Elfman’s score for Milk and the Slumdog score. While I still don’t think it has a chance, this is one of the few categories where name recognition actually helps a nominee. Elfman has been a fixture of movie soundtracks for nearly three decades. While much of his work is associated with the bizarre, most notably the films of Tim Burton, he has slowly been amassing a more mainstream book of work including Good Will Hunting, A Simple Life and Milk. That he’s managed to finally break the glass ceiling that kept him and many of his contemporaries out of this category, this could be just the film to earn him a career recognition accolade. Then again, Slumdog doesn’t look like it can be beat, so Elfman will probably have to wait a few more years.
Original Screenplay
When we first set eyes on this category early this year, it looked entirely different. Many were predicting a nod for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler and Burn After Reading. However, none of those made it to the final ballot. Instead, we’re left with three screenwriting debuts, a veteran and the perennial Pixar flick. Courtney Hunt should be proud of her nomination for Frozen River because it’s likely all she’s going to get. The same can be said for Mike Leigh’s nod for Happy-Go-Lucky, a film which didn’t manage to crack the Best Actress race when it was expected to do so.
That brings the race down to Milk, WALL-E and In Bruges. The last name in that list, Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges, is a potential spoiler. It was a comedy that most didn’t expect to make it to the Oscars, but which managed to do it. Against the other two films, it’s unlikely McDonagh will succeed, but stranger things have happened.
WALL-E is probably going to end up a loser here. Not that the film doesn’t deserve a win. It is certainly one of the most inventive films in recent years. But, it suffers from a first half that’s absent dialogue. Yes, it worked for The Red Balloon back in 1956, but that’s once in an 80-year history. Those are good odds. But some would argue that the film does contain dialogue, largely in its latter section. However, that dialogue also seems to be the least impressive part of the story and takes away a bit of the thrust of it.
That leaves Milk. Aside from being the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch, there is a growing belief that this could be the only category in which the film can succeed. With Mickey Rourke picking up momentum as Best Actor, it could be that Dustin Lance Black reps the film’s only major award. It would be a shame, but it’s becoming more likely that this will be the outcome.
Adapted Screenplay
This category can best be described as the battle of the Best Picture nominees. Milk is subbed out here for Doubt which is a more likely victor than Frost/Nixon, but not more of one than the other films. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, despite being a fanciful, old-fashioned story, doesn’t really have the dramatic punch that Oscar voters like. The same can be said of The Reader which won’t follow The Pianist to a surprise Holocaust-wins-all victory in this category.
No, this category belongs wholly to Slumdog Millionaire. Despite my disagreement with many that the script is one of the film’s weaker elements (it never really gives an explanation as to why these two are fated to be together…there’s not even any romantic connection until late in the film), it is nonetheless a powerful contender and isn’t likely to lose. Add to that the fact that the WGA winner for Adapted Screenplay for the last four years has gone on to collect the Academy award and you should have your result.
If there’s a spoiler, it may be Benjamin that wins, but if that should occur, there may be a bigger backlash against Slumdog than anyone had dreamed. I still don’t see that happening, though.
And that concludes my like at the middle-tier categories. It’s a rough year for many being so relatively predictable, but some of these races may result in minor surprises (more likely the categories earlier in the article than later), which would spice up what’s shaping up to be, at least in terms of winners, one of the dullest telecasts in Oscar history.
-Wesley Lovell (February 18, 2009)
