Looking at the tech categories began my thoughts to wondering if perhaps there might be more surprises than we expect. Today’s examination of the Second Tier categories (writing awards, non-Best Picture film awards and the music awards) has given me a touch more hope. See for yourself why:
Documentary Feature
In the Documentary Feature category, we finally have a slate of films that each has a good possibility of winning the big prize. A few stand out more than others, but a lot depends on the mood of those who get a chance to watch these films (a requirement to even vote in the category).
The biggest question is which traditional voters will turn out to vote here. In recent years, we’ve seen three types of films emerge as victors. Populist, but critically acclaimed films; political, but critically acclaimed films; and emotionally evocative films that have minor amounts of critical acclaim, but not nearly enough o be considered the critics’ choice.
No End in Sight fits into the Political-Acclaimed category. It’s an Iraq war documentary that examines the endless aggression in that country. It will appeal to the liberal block of the Academy hoping to use the Oscars as a statement.
Operation Homecoming, although receiving a few positive notices, best fits into the Emotionally Evocative category and may appeal to older voters not wanting to make much of a statement, but recognize the emotional impact of the war itself.
Sicko is best categorized as Populist-Acclaimed. It picked up the PGA and WGA awards and has done decently at the box office. This film could easily appeal to both moderate and liberal voters who think the U.S. Health Care system is a mess and want to recognize Micahel Moore for exposing it. The big question is whether voters will want to give Moore another sound stage to air his political reprisals.
Taxi to the Dark Side is another Political-Acclaimed film. It takes a more harsh rhetorical stance against the war in Iraq and examines the nasty business of torture and humiliation inflicted on mostly innocent Iraqis. Voters who would choose this film are far to the left and are such a minority that its win is highly unlikely, and perhaps the most unlikely of the five.
War/Dance is also an Emotionally Evocative pic and will appeal to all of conservative Oscar voters who don’t want to stir the pot and want to stay as far away from political statements as possible. It’s the only film of the five with such standing.
In the end, it will all come down to votes. There’s no easy pick here. Moore is too polarizing a figure, but he’s won in the past despite foreknowledge of his polarization. No End in Sight has the best chance of the three wartime docus at winning and War/Dance remains the most likely spoiler. This is going to be a very interesting category as almost any of the winners could be seen as controversial, each in likely different ways.
Animated Feature
Outside of Visual Effects, Animated Feature is one of the few locked categories.
There’s Ratatouille and then there are the others. Unlike last year when you had two popular choices competing, the Academy’s bizarre penguin fetish won out. This year, there is little chance that this year’s penguin entry will triumph. Surf’s Up was a box office dud and its nomination will be considered its reward.
Persepolis will appeal to the fringe members of this branch. They prefer their animation to be more distinct and less traditional. While I think there are enough voters that could push it over the time, I’m afraid if Triplets of Belleville can’t pick up the top prize, the second French nominee in this categories history will be left out.
Ratatouille mixes strong box office and considerable critical clout. No other film this year has so dominated the critics prizes and its loss here would probably be the biggest upset the Academy has given out since Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture two years ago and one of the more surprising omissions this decade.
Foreign Language Film
Another crapshoot plays itself out in the Foreign Language Film category. Like the Documentary and Short Film awards, members must attend screenings of all films before choosing one. Sadly, most of these are so limited in release that few have probably seen them outside of the major metros. Still, based on plot and Oscar voter patterns, we may be able to pick an eventual winner.
Beaufort suffers the ignominy of being the second option when Israel’s first submission was ruled ineligible. In spite of all that, it still managed to earn a nomination. It’s a film about the effects war has on Israeli soldiers in the Middle East. It will appeal to more emotional voters and those with an attachment to the Israeli territories, but is it strong enough to win during a time of war?
The Counterfeiters is a film dealing with one of Oscar’s favorite subjects: the Holocaust. While not specifically about the extermination of Jews, it does deal with a Jewish counterfeiter given a reprieve because of his estimable skills. Voters may still see it as the kind of film that celebrates how Jews were able to use their talents to escape persecution, but it may also irritate those same viewers since it isn’t really about the triumph of the human will.
Katyn has one major asset. Its director is a past Honorary Oscar winner. Andrzej Wajda may very well earn victory for his dark side of the human soul war narrative. But it could be too dark for Oscar voters, which means if it wins, it will solely be based on Wajda’s name being attached.
Mongol is a period war epic that could very well appeal to the older voters of the Academy. These are the voters that used to herald the massive epics of the past. It could be the kind of film that they Academy decides should be recognized just for its size of production.
Then there’s 12, it’s the only film of the bunch that doesn’t specifically deal with war. While the kid on trial in this 12 Angry Men-style drama, is Chechen (a war-torn region of Russia), it is not specifically about the war. However, since it deals indirectly with the effects of the war in that area and its effect on the teenager, it may be seen as a surreptitious, but agreeable way to come out against war while remaining emotionally engaged.
It’s very hard to pick from these five films. Each has significant points for and against it, but ultimately, the familiar may win out. The Counterfeiters is set during a period of history that appeals to the most voters (as witnessed in past Oscar contests). However, with several Academy members at a standstill due to the WGA strike, more conscientious voters may make it to the screenings and hand the darkest film, Katyn, a prize.
Original Song
Four films have earned the distinction of three Oscar nominations for Original Song. With Enchanted joining the ranks of last year’s Dreamgirls, Disney’s Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King, it may seem that Enchanted has an upper hand. However, disagreement as to which song was best may have led to Dreamgirls losing out to the anthem from An Inconvenient Truth (the first documentary ever to have a song written for it win the award).
This year, however, we have that interesting dichotomy: songs about the creative process and songs from a semi-animated musical.
“So Close” from Enchanted seems to be the least likely to ring true with voters. Few people that I know who have seen the film can even remember the song in the film. The same cannot be said for the other two songs from the film: “Happy Working Song” and “That’s How You Know”. The former is the kind of humor melody that has been a favorite amongst the musicians who nominated for the award. However, out of all of the Disney films to earn nominations for Original Song since the studio’s reinvention with The Little Mermaid, only that first film managed to win for a song that wasn’t a ballad.
That doesn’t exactly help “That’s How You Know” which is the massive production number of the film, but not even close to being considered a ballad. It blends a number of different musical styles, largely based on the street performers of New York City, but it’s that connection to the city that may appeal to the most voters.
That leaves two other films about music that could triumph. Whether enough voters even cared to catch August Rush is the question that must be answered true if “Raise it Up” is to win. With no big names attached to the song and the film’s box office disappointment, I can see this song as being a major also-ran (though, it could still benefit from a vote split amongst the other songs).
“Falling Slowly” is a marvelous tune with a touch of controversy. There was rumor that it would be disqualified because it had appeared on an album before appearing in the film. However, the Academy’s music branch declared that it was eligible and had been written specifically for the film.
The song is featured in one of the year’s critic darlings and the song is, while not specifically about the creative process, but is developed through the creative process. This has worked to the advantage of several less traditional songs including “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” and “Lose Yourself” in 2002 and 2005 respectively. With those precedents in place and a lot of support from critics, the song is the most likely winner this year, but it needs to watch out for a consolidated voting block from the Enchanted crowd.
Original Score
This category has often produced some questionable results. It was largely due to the proliferation of CDs of the nominated works, which allow the voter to ignore the film itself. That worked well for Gustavo Santaolalla last year in his less-than-spectacular win for Babel.
This year, the Academy nixed those CDs and now voters will have to see the films in order to vote for the winner. This is bad news for Alberto Iglesias whose film The Kite Runner ended up shuffled out of Oscar contention despite best efforts of the production company to make it the must-see Oscar nominee. It didn’t work and it probably won’t work for the score.
Michael Clayton doesn’t seem like the kind of film to win this type of award. It’s not really a film where music would play an integral part. Stranger things have happened, but I don’t think this year will be too surprising.
Marco Beltrami has had years of scoring experience, but earns his first nomination. His work has been in more cutting edge films, ones that Oscar tends to ignore. Here he makes it in largely on his name recognition and a lot of niche support for 3:10 to Yuma. However, like most long-toiling composers, he’s likely to follow the same path Danny Elfman did, earning a few nominations, but ultimately going unrewarded.
That leaves a strong competitive race between Dario Marianelli’s typewriter-based score for Best Picture nominee Atonement and Michael Giacchino’s French impressionist work for Ratatouille. The question is which film is going to be more popular. If Atonement doesn’t win here, its chances for Best Picture are completely shot. If it does, we can attribute its win to its nomination for Best Picture.
However, back when Giacchino was getting major awards attention for his score to The Incredibles, it was a major blow that the film didn’t get nominated. Now, he’s nominated and anyone who feels he should have been nodded for The Incredibles may well give him a vote. Plus, the critical praise for Ratatouille, often outstripping that for Atonement could result in a pick up here in support of its Best Animated Feature nomination.
Original Screenplay
Two Best Picture nominees, one major critically acclaimed piece and two bleak comedies compete to win this year’s Original Screenplay award. There really is no question that Juno will triumph. Since it’s unlikely to win Best Picture, the chances of it winning this award remain high. It picked up the WGA award and has marched away with several critics prizes as well.
However, never underestimate the power of Ratatouille. It wasn’t eligible for the WGA award (primarily because animation isn’t under the dominion of the WGA) and has a great deal of support in the industry. No animated feature has ever picked up a screenwriting prize, but if it’s going to happen, I expect it to happen with Ratatouille.
Lars and the Real Girl should be happy its nominated. The chances of the film winning hinged on a Best Actor nod and since there wasn’t one, most people will probably have forgotten this slight feature. The same could be said about The Savages, a film that peaked early and has never really recovered. The benefit for the film is that Laura Linney is also a nominee. The question will be whether voters will want to recognize the sometimes mean-spirited, more depressing The Savages or the sweetly mean-spirited full blown comedy Juno.
Then there’s Michael Clayton. Its support in so many categories is mystifying. It wasn’t a box office sensation and it wasn’t a critical behemoth. However, it has quietly amassed a sizable war chest, managing to tie for the third most nominated film of the year. If it wins this award, we may be looking at a Best Picture triumph on the surprise scale we haven’t seen in years.
Adapted Screenplay
Could there be a more one-sided race this year? Despite the strength of these five contenders, the frontrunner through the entire awards season and confirmed by the WGA victory has to be No Country for Old Men. Since it’s also the most likely to win Best Picture, voters will want to reward it with enough cap feathers to make it the most-honored film as well.
Away from Her was a pleasant surprise from the Academy’s writers but with only a Best Actress nomination to share, it’s unlikely it will be able to take down its significantly more nominated co-nominees.
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is hardly brimming with nods, but with four, including Best Director, the film is certainly in contention. However, the film is easily more about the Cinematography and Directing than it is about the writing, so its nomination is its reward.
Atonement will have to do well to win Best Picture and it would need this award to do that. If it wins, we’ll probably all be shocked, but its chances are diminished largely by the fact that most of the films detractors cite the film’s over-faithfulness to the book as one of its detriments.
Then there’s There Will Be Blood. It’s a strong film with a loose basis on an Upton Sinclair novel. That fact won’t win it support since most people aren’t familiar with the source. What might win its support is a desire to recognize Paul Thomas Anderson’s seminal achievement and give the film a few awards. However, this is probably the one category it has the least chance of winning simply because so many voters will give the Coens a win here if they aren’t going to vote for them elsewhere.
Looking through these categories, I’m struck most by the exclusions (There Will Be Blood from Original Socre, “Guaranteed” from Original Song, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, The Orphanage and Persepolis from Foreign Language Film). However, there is also the impression that upsets could actually occur. While I’m more on the pessimist side, largely for fear of having my hopes dashed on Oscar night, we aren’t likely to know until Sunday just how ordinary or extraordinary the year’s winners might be.
-Wesley Lovell (February 21, 2008)
