The big Eight-Oh. It’s Oscar’s 80th anniversary and we would all hope that voters want to throw a few sabots into the machine in hopes of making this an extremely memorable one. But, as it seems to happen more frequently these past few years, the guilds and precursors have weighed in and their choices only solidify the year as a generally predictable one. Unlike those long gone big sweep years, the technical categories may provide the only genuine surprises this year. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll get a few more surprising outcomes in the final hour.
As has become tradition, I am going to highlight each Oscar race, look at the past and the precursors and try to formulate a reasonable assumption of what may win the Oscars. I’ll do my best to keep my personal choices out of consideration, but we all know that’s more difficult than it sounds.
So, we start of the 80th Oscars examination with the technical categories. These categories either sweep with a Best Picture winner or spread themselves wide across the available films. The latter is far more likely to happen than the former with the top nominees, There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men tying with only eight nominations apiece.
Visual Effects
One of only two tech categories that will have no real or perceived impact on the eventual Best Picture winner. Visual Effects features three films that barely feature in other tech races better yet the more prestigious categories. The three films receiving nominations are fantasy, action or a combination of both.
The Golden Compass‘ recognition is the nomination itself. Although it has the most distinct and engaging effects of the three, it’s not the Academy’s overwhelming cup of tea. And considering how many purely fantasy films have taken the prize in recent years, I’m sure there’s a reticence to recognize another.
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End suffers most from sequel-itis. While that didn’t prevent the previous film in the series from winning last year, it may prevent it from winning this year. The first film got lost in the Lord of the Rings juggernaut and last year was considered by many the recognition some thought it deserved in its first outing. This year, we have largely more of the same, but if the voters make their choice based on the maelstrom scene, it could come out on top.
However, the most likely victor and perhaps one of the more visible foregone conclusions is Transformers. The film is filled with visual effects, which always piques a voter’s interest. And with 300, the only film to pick up significant precursor attention, not in the race, I don’t see any reason why the traditional “most equals best” thought won’t prevail.
Makeup
With only two possible outcomes, Best Makeup may be more impactful on the Best Actress race than it would be on any other.
You can start off by tossing out Rick Baker’s annual nomination. I can’t think of a single voter that would want to allow a film like Norbit to carry the title Oscar Winning. Add to that the perception that Eddie Murphy lost the Oscar last year because of this film’s pre-Oscar release and you have more reasons not to vote for them film than to vote for it.
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End may have been the frontrunner at one point, before the nominations were announced, but after the more I think about it, the more I think perhaps this one is toast. The series already has one trophy and when you put it up against its co-nominee, it seems more showy, but less important.
La Vie en Rose has been the only nominee to pick up any awards for Makeup during the precursor season. Both the British Academy and the OFTA picked it as the best of the year. That’s not to say their choices are going to give the edge to La Vie en Rose, but it does suggest that the film has broad enough support to carry it to victory. Add to that the high profile battle in Best Actress and you have the making of a uncharacteristic winner in this category.
Sound Editing
When this category shifted from Bake Off to popular vote in the nominations phase, many of its choices became more populist and a lot more comparative to the Sound Mixing category.
This is also the first category that seems to be locked in a battle for dominance. There isn’t a single nominee that couldn’t ultimately win the big prize. So, if we looked at this from a precursor standpoint, we’d probably be ill advised. Only two precursors exist that award prizes for Sound Editing. One is from the Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild. They haven’t yet announced. The other is from the Online Film & Television Association.
Both groups are hit or miss, though in the last five years, each has correctly foreshadowed three of the winners. That’s not a good indicator, but may be better than most. The OFTA gave its award to There Will Be Blood, but as I said above, this is a rather unusual year and any number of surprises could occur. Matter of fact, this could be one of the year’s only surprising choices.
Along with Blood, the only other Best Picture nominee here is No Country for Old Men. That film also got a Sound Mixing nod, which Blood did not. That means No Country may have an advantage. The problem is voters who are likely to pick either film are generally the same group, which means the other three films need to have solid support. The Bourne Ultimatum seems to be following a Black Hawk Down-type trajectory, figuring prominently in races for Editing and Sound. It could easily be the spoiler winner here.
Transformers was a huge success at the box office and could follow the path of the triumvirates of the past, picking up the prizes for Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.
However, the fifth nominee cannot be counted out. Ratatouille is animated and thus relies entirely on artificially created sound. That may be the biggest reason for this film to triumph over the others.
There’s precedent for any of these outcomes. Brad Bird’s previous film, The Incredibles, won this prize two years ago. It was the first fully animated film to take the prize. The Bourne Ultimatum seems to be following not only the Black Hawk Down tradition, but also The Matrix history. Both films were Best Editing winners and carried home a sound prize, the latter actually winning this category. Transformers could win based on the past success of similar blockbusters like King Kong, Titanic and Jurassic Park.
But the most stirring precedent is the one most likely to generate the outcome. Not since 1994 has a Best Picture nominee in this category failed home the prize. Braveheart, Titanic, Saving Private Ryan, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Master and Commander and Letters from Iwo Jima all took home the prizes. Every other winner in this category since then has won over a non-Best Picture-inclusive slate. Iwo Jima was the first film to compete against another Best Picture nominee, but the same trend holds true this year.
I firmly believe the vote could come down one of two ways. The first is No Country for Old Men moves in for a potential sweep, carrying even the most minor categories. The second is There Will Be Blood picking up a respectable set of tech prizes while losing the big one to No Country. Here, the difference is in the effects. Blood features the more uncommon effects usage of the two. No Country relies mainly on more modern conveniences: guns, chases and the like. Blood is set in a period where the reproduction of sound would be based more on imagination than on actual experience, thus earning the edge.
If Blood wins, I don’t think it will be an indicator of a greater upset, but if this is the first of many prizes for the night, this could be the beginning of an upset.
Art Direction
While this category has been combined in my report for some time, the winners have been less likely to be. The Academy has been spreading prizes around and it could very well occur this year. Before the film failed to light up the box office and earn a Best Picture nomination, Sweeney Todd seemed the odds-on favorite to take both Art Direction and Costume Design categories.
Now, it seems like the film may have to hope for a Costume Design win largely because of its competition.
These two categories are seldom influenced by Best Picture politics unless a sweep is imminent. Since the likely Best Picture winner this year is not a nominee in either category, I can see then ignoring the ones that are nominated.
In the Art Direction category, only Sweeney Todd and Atonement received nominations also in Costume Design. This could prove a boon for both, but what Atonement lacks is more than one knock-out scene. Where as Sweeney was created from the ground up, Atonement was largely shot in pre-existing locales leaving only the set decorator to create the effect. While this hasn’t stopped them from giving out prizes to them before, I don’t see an award for the Dunkirk beach shot alone being given out.
Todd‘s washed out design may not have the color most would expect in winners of this category. It’s a fact that could easily push it out of contention. And since the film lost to the Best Picture nominee There Will Be Blood at the Art Directors Guild awards, I think it may be out of the competition.
The win for There Will Be Blood is certainly surprising. It’s not a brightly-awash palate, but it does create a small, desert town and several old-fashioned derricks, which may be enough to create the look of an eventual Oscar winner. However, the competition is certainly not going to back down.
The Golden Compass picked up the fantasy award, but those films rarely do well with the Academy, but if it’s a tooth-and-nail fight, this one could quietly emerge as the winner. The same could be said about American Gangster, which is the only film that doesn’t feel like a winner. It has no precursor recognition, it’s set to recently in the past and it has no major Oscar nods to bolster its chances.
While I think Todd‘s chances are still good, I’m going to have to go with There Will Be Blood. If it does win here, we could be seeing the beginning of a sweep, but we might just be seeing well-earned plaudits given to a film that will be the ultimate bridesmaid.
Costume Design
Separated for the first time since I started doing these articles, Costume Design used to be hopelessly tied to the Art Direction award. Now, they seem to be as far away as they ever were close. Take for instance, the low crossover factor. Only Atonement and Sweeney Todd have managed to earn nods in both sections.
Atonement is the only Best Picture nominee in the list. And the green dress has earned a great deal of notoriety. However, one dress does not make a victor and the dearth of intricate costumes hurts Atonement as much as anything.
The only film with less of a chance at victory than Atonement is Across the Universe. Its inclusion was one of the bigger surprises this year, but it’s hardly the style of film that wins the big prize.
Sweeney Todd and La Vie en Rose both boast similar fashions, but with the drained colors of Todd, Rose‘s effort seems more striking. However, the nomination for La Vie en Rose could simply be due to the designers death last year. If there is sentiment (which is a big IF considering the situation in the Sound Mixing category), it could win, but I’m doubtful voters will even realize that fact and are more likely to go with the more glorious of the designs.
That prize goes easily to Elizabeth: The Golden Age. The film has every bit of glamour and excess characterized by the period and it’s a glaringly obvious choice. But is that enough? The Costume Designers Guild awards may clarify that as it competes with all of its co-nominees (except Across the Universe) in the Period Costume Design category. The winner there may point us to an eventual winner.
However, I’m going to stick with my prediction of Sweeney Todd. After all the attention the film has received it would seem truly bizarre if it took home no prizes. Though, that could easily be the case. I think Elizabeth has the best chance of unseating Todd, but a lot will depend on voters’ desire to recognize that box office and critical bomb over the critically praised Todd.
Sound Mixing
The tech categories, outside of Cinematography, have seldom been fodder for sentimentality. This year, we have the rare case where, depending on who remembers the case, a sentimental favorite could win.
Kevin O’Connell is Oscar’s biggest loser. With 20 Oscar nominations to his credit, he has never won a single trophy. Normally, this would go unnoticed by the Academy but for an insensitive quip made by last year’s Oscar winner in this category. Having left the ceremony shortly after he lost for the nineteenth time, O’Connell ran to his mother’s bedside to say goodbye for the last time.
Three-time Oscar winner Michael Minkler, likely not having known O’Connell’s mother had died, remarked to the press who had asked him about O’Connell’s losing streak: “And I just wonder what Kevin’s trying to do out there by trying to get an award by using sympathy. And Kevin’s an okay mixer but enough’s enough about Kevin…. I just think that maybe he should just take up another line of work”
Those words stung, but will Oscar voters even remember. The press hasn’t been strong regarding this incident and there are a number of strong contenders this year, each with a sizable chance of winning. However, should O’Connell win, his award will be contributed to sympathy not to quality, which could taint his biography. Voters may also realize that and decide to wait until a later time when the controversy isn’t still hanging in the air.
3:10 to Yuma seems the only film unlikely to earn an Oscar this year. Its strengths hardly match the sheer publicity of its competitors. Ratatouille‘s chances are also diluted, largely due to its hefty chances in Sound Editing. You might think that would make it a favorite here as well, but I think its chances at Sound Editing are far better than for Sound Mixing.
The Bourne Ultimatum may follow the Black Hawk Down trajectory I referenced earlier and win the prize, but it didn’t pick up the CAS trophy, which is a huge detriment to its case. That’s not because it was heavily favored to win but because it lost to a Best Picture nominee that may be destined for an Oscar sweep.
No Country for Old Men seems like the kind of film that the Academy used to recognize. It’s not a loud, bombastic film, but it uses sound quite effectively. Voters may be persuaded, as they have many times in the past, to vote for the film that wins Best Picture. With the award from Cinema Audio Society under its belt, the film becomes the odds-on favorite to win this category.
Cinematography
Don’t let them fool you, the American Society of Cinematographers are the worst guild at predicting the eventual Oscar winner. In the last five years, they have only selected two eventual winners (Memoirs of a Geisha and Road to Perdition). In the last ten years, that number only augments by one to three (Titanic). That’s doesn’t give many hope that There Will Be Blood will repeat. But if it does, and there are many other wins by the film, we could be seeing a Best Picture winner.
But, the more likely indicator is if No Country for Old Men wins the prize. As one of two nominations in this category for Roger Deakins, No Country has been seen by more people. That’s not to say the film with the biggest audience always wins, but when choosing between Deakins films, if voters decide to do such, then No Country would have the better shot.
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford seemed like the perfect vehicle for the ASC to recognize. It’s largely considered an art film and its design has been much ballyhooed. The problem is the film received only one other Oscar nomination and that was for a performance that seemed destined for recognition. For the film to win would indicate Oscar voters aren’t sure which Best Picture nominee featured here is best.
Of course, frequent nominee Janusz Kaminski could pick up a victory due largely to the early-in-the-film stunt photography that helped make The Diving Bell and the Butterfly one of the most interesting pictures of the year. Visually, it is quite impressive, but when it failed to pick up a “surprise” Best Picture nomination, it suggested the film may not have as many fans as we had originally thought.
Atonement is one of those films that generally goes unnoticed when it comes to the Cinematography category. This nomination may very well be its recognition, but keep an eye here. If Atonement manages to pick up this award, it may mean Best Picture has gone to the film that managed to hold on strong to the very end.
Editing
It’s the category that could end up picking the eventual Best Picture winner. Or, as in several previous years, it could be the fence-sitting category that gives us no clue as to the final outcome.
There are only three films that really have any chance of competing for this award. Into the Wild is lucky to be nominated considering its exclusion from every other major category. I doubt the film can overcome the general impression of ennui that voters seemed to have thrust on the film. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly also seems unlikely. The film is more accomplished in its Cinematography than its editing. There’s nothing flashy or exceptional, two things voters like to have when choosing the winner here.
That leaves the ACE winner and two Best Picture contenders. The least likely to win here is the more simplistic editing of There Will Be Blood. The film hardly feels edited and that’s hard for voters to take. When talking about Editing, they are more concerned with the visual, not the technical. It isn’t showy and isn’t filled with car chases or gun fights.
No Country for Old Men and The Bourne Ultimatum would seem to be the obvious choices for this award. Both feature the category’s traditional violence quotient and both are well respected in the industry. No Country‘s detriment is that it’s not nearly as obvious as Bourne. And with Bourne Ultimatum winning the American Cinema Editors award for Drama editing, you can bet it’s a huge contender (again following the pattern of Black Hawk Down).
That being said, if No Country for Old Men, or especially, There Will Be Blood triumph in this category, you may be looking at the eventual winner. A lot will be determined based on other categories, but this is one where the two films are competing that has the most likelihood of suggesting an outcome.
The last time we had a massive juggernaut, the prevailing thought was that Brokeback Mountain was going to win Best Picture. When it lost to Crash, it all came down to the Editing category, an area where Best Picture winners are groomed.
But when it all comes down to the Oscars, it’s anyone’s guess. The technical categories may or may not have an impact. A lot will be determined on Oscar night. We might not be able to see the trends until they actually start occurring, but the above is a pretty good guess based on past experience and present circumstances as to what the prevailing thought may be and which films may become the eventual Oscar winners.
-Wesley Lovell (February 19, 2008)
