As we move into the home stretch, it’s clear that perhaps we aren’t going to have as many “safe” outcomes as we expect. While some categories seem annoyingly pre-determined, others remain wide open and could be decided by a few votes.
Four of the Top Six categories, those we are looking at today, are pretty much locked into a winner. The sad part is that three of those races are ones that I would love to see anyone else win than he designated winner. However, looking at the empirical indicators of precursors, history and word of mouth, the outcomes appear to be completely certain.
Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actor is one of those near certainties. Javier Bardem received a nomination for Before Night Falls previously. His work since has been praised, but ultimately he had not succeeded in making it back onto Oscar’s radar until this year. However, with the general love of his film, No Country for Old Men, and the heaps of critics prizes he’s accumulated, his loss would be one of the bigger surprises of the night.
But, who has the chance of breaking his hold? There are three real possibilities. Philip Seymour Hoffman is not one of them. For all the praise he’s gotten for Charlie Wilson’s War and his other efforts this year, the film flopped by Oscar standards and he just won the award, undeservingly, two years ago for Capote.
Tom Wilkinson could benefit from a wave of Michael Clayton support. His performance isn’t necessarily career high in most opinions, but if the film is destined to win Best Picture, its support should be such that Wilkinson could trump Bardem. However, if that is indeed the case, expect Bardem to keep the prize as a show of “thanks for playing” support for the film.
Casey Affleck, for a time, was considered the frontrunner. He had everything going for him: lead-worthy screen time, critical support and two talked-about performances in major year-end films. Then, after neither film caught on at the box office, Gone Baby Gone failed to figure in anything but Supporting Actress and Javier Bardem taking most of the critics’ awards, Affleck’s noteworthy and potentially award-winning performance was pushed aside. He could still pull an upset. He’s the kind of up-and-coming star that the Oscars love to reward, but usually only on the women’s side. The men’s side tends to be given to longtime character actors or big names in small roles.
Then there’s Hal Holbrook. Hardly a screen legend, this octogenarian picked up a nomination for his fatherly turn in the film that was an early favorite for Oscar attention. Into the Wild was going to be big. Everyone was talking about it. It had the Kerouac set abuzz, but then it failed to earn a single nomination in the Top Six except for poor Holbrook. As his film’s only major nomination, it could prove difficult for him to win. Still, if there’s an actor that can build on good will enough to win the award, and simultaneously become the oldest winner in the category ever, it’s Holbrook.
Supporting Actress
This is probably the hardest category to pick this year. It’s also one of the most tumultuous the Academy’s seen in some time. Not since Marisa Tomei won for My Cousin Vinny has a category had the potential to generate a surprise. All five actresses have a good chance at winning and each for different reasons.
Cate Blanchett plays Bob Dylan. Not only is she taking on the kind of impersonation that won her the Academy Award for The Aviator, she’s also playing the opposite gender. This worked quite well for Linda Hunt who captured the trophy for The Year of Living Dangerously, but that was the only time. No other gender-bending performance has won an Academy Award. That does hurt Blanchett as does being her film’s ONLY Oscar nomination. Each of her fellow nominees has their film nominated elsewhere. She still holds the Golden Globe award for Best Supporting Actress, but their track record isn’t so great and she was often eclipsed by Amy Ryan in the critics prizes.
Still, she has a good shot at a win simply based on the stunt casting (unless voters fail to catch up on the art film in which she appears). Then there’s the double nominee factor. Until Sigourney Weaver came along, every actor or actress nominated twice in the same year earned one of the prizes. Since Weaver, however, that trend has failed a number of actors. This could be such a case.
Amy Ryan was considered the frontrunner by many for quite some time. Her massive success at the critic’s awards might have seemed a pre-destination for Oscar victory. However, this category has the least correlation to critics prizes of any trophy. Very seldom does the leader of the critic’s trophies triumph at the Oscars. So, I’ve never given her much thought. However, there is a segment of the Academy that will want to recognize her for toiling on the stage and finally emerging into prominence. Her performance may be as much of a hindrance as it is a boon. Her character is hardly likable. She’s selfish and manipulative. And despite her big scene in the center of the film, I can’t see the Academy recognizing this kind of character.
Saoirse Ronan is the only acting nominee for Best Picture contender Atonement. A lot of her success will hinge on whether the Academy really loves the film or if its nomination was an anomaly. That aside, she commands her many scenes and gives the kind of child performance you don’t see much of. It’s controlled and measured and certainly worthy of attention. Though she’s not the best Briony of the film (a distinction I give to Romola Garai), the fact that she’s the youngest nominee and this is the only category to ever recognize teenage and younger actresses, she has a good shot.
Ruby Dee has long been on my list as a potential spoiler. She has earned a great deal of good will in the industry, yet has never been Oscar nominated. That’s largely due to her work primarily on the stage with only a small oeuvre on film. That aside, she managed to pick up the Screen Actors Guild prize for Best Supporting Actress. It’s not the best indicator of an eventual winner, but it shows there’s a great deal of respect for her in the industry. If she wins, it will largely be because of her reputation, not necessarily the short-time performance in American Gangster. She would also be the oldest actress ever to win this category should she do so.
But, the British Academy Awards threw a wrench in the whole affair when it gave the prize to Tilda Swinton. She may have won because she’s a Brit, but there’s rumbling that since Michael Clayton isn’t likely to win Best Picture, this may be the best and easiest way to recognize the film. She’s been toiling in the background of Hollywood for several years and has given countless critically acclaimed performance. This is her first nomination. This could be the Academy’s chance to recognize her for her body of work to date and in such a tight race, strong support could lead to her victory.
Actor
While most other categories with a slam-dunk winner have a distinct group of potential spoilers. Best Actor remains the only category with only a small measure of support for the opposition. Daniel Day-Lewis should handily win for his performance in There Will Be Blood and the only person who could possibly stand in his way already has an Oscar.
Viggo Mortensen’s recognition is the nomination. After being passed over for A History of Violence, some voters may have solidified support for his Russian dialect performance in Eastern Promises just to get him nominated. Accents aren’t the typical winners of the Best Actor category, nor are impersonations. Mortensen’s probably the least likely to pick up the prize.
Tommy Lee Jones is right behind in him that respect. His film was an Oscar dud, earned no other nominations and Jones himself already has an Oscar. He’s not nominated for No Country for Old Men, but that film probably figured into his nomination here.
Johnny Depp’s lackluster singing voice didn’t keep him from being nominated, but after Finding Neverland, it should be no surprise that he’s probably going to get nominated for every performance he turns in until he wins. That’s not likely to be for Sweeney Todd. It didn’t figure in any of the major races and he couldn’t even manage to win the SAG Award, which he picked up for Pirates of the Caribbean. If any group were going to recognize him, it would have been that one.
Michael Clayton keeps creeping into discussions. It’s the kind of film people respect more than they recognize. It’s similar to Erin Brockovich in many ways but also easily likened to Good Night, and Good Luck. The latter didn’t win a single trophy from the Oscars, the former gave long-ignored Julia Roberts an undeserved win. If George Clooney picks up the prize this year, it will be considered by many as the biggest upset in Oscar history, possibly even earning more attention than the infamous Citizen Kane/How Green Was My Valley incident.
Daniel Day-Lewis already has an Oscar, so does Clooney, his nearest competitor. The difference is that Day-Lewis lost recently for a much-ballyhooed performance and hasn’t been to the podium in nearly twenty years. George Clooney was there very recently. Day-Lewis also has his fellow thespians singing his praise as the kind of villainous performance that most actors can’t make seem likable. Day-Lewis makes Daniel Plainview a sympathetic villain, which makes his win feel all the more right.
Actress
What was once a pretty certain outcome has become muddied in recent weeks. Julie Christie was the belle of the ball. She had several critics prizes, she received the Screen Actors Guild award and her long career were all beginning to port towards her victory.
Then the worst news she could receive happened. Marion Cotillard, a Frenchwoman, took the home-turf prize at the British Academy Awards away from her. Christie’s a native and there’s often a British bias against the French, but there Cotillard was, winning the big prize. Her performance in La Vie en Rose has been criticized by many for being too histrionic-laden, but actors seem to genuinely like how deeply immersed Cotillard got into the part. While the brilliant makeup work certainly helped, there was no question she so effectively embodied Edith Piaf that Stanislavski would have been proud.
But what if the battle royale between Christie and Cotillard generated another result. Namely a third, well-supported contender emerging to snatch the victory away from the two powerhouses. Most would say Ellen Page is that contender. If she were to win, she would be the younest winner ever in this category, beating out Marlee Matlin’s record for Children of a Lesser God. Juno has box office clout and many believe Page is one of her generation’s most talented professionals. Those same people would probably say her potential is such that she deserves recognition for that work.
Cate Blanchett’s has two major roles this year and could benefit from opinion that she should have won for her work in Elizabeth back in 1998. However, the voters who think that probably also believe her recognition for The Aviator made them even. So, it’s unlikely that Blanchett will triumph here best chance is in the Supporting Actress race.
Then again, Laura Linney’s got a staggering reputation, one that managed to earn her a nomination in spite of her film’s general failure at the box office. The Savages isn’t the type of role that wins Oscars, but with three popular actresses vying for the top prize, Linney could emerge with a strong column of support to wrest victory from the hands of defeat.
Director
Last year, we had no doubt that Martin Scorsese was going to triumph for The Departed. Even if his film wasn’t going to win Best Picture, he was finally going to get his Best Director trophy. And with the DGA firming up that belief, he did. The same thing is very likely to occur this year, but to a much more minor degree.
No one disagrees that Joen and Ethan Coen have been hit or miss with the Academy. Since their major nomination triumph with Fargo back in 1996, they have barely been a blip on the Oscar radar. That all changed when No Country for Old Men swept into the year-end critics’ derbies and won nearly everything in sight. For them to lose now, especially after picking up the DGA award would be quite surprising.
Not likely to figure into an upset are Juno‘s Jason Reitman and Michael Clayton‘s Tony Gilroy. Both are first-time nominees and neither are Oscar wunderkinds. Gilroy’s best shot is in the screenwriting category and Reitman’s nomination is his reward. What hinders Reitman more is that in the history of the DGA, only once has the Best Director winner not also been a guild award nominee. That one case was the very first year of the awards.
Paul Thomas Anderson might have been a stronger contender had his film, There Will Be Blood, opened earlier and played to more critics, perhaps even to the SAG voters. Anderson’s bigger problem is having been on the fringe of Hollywood for most of his career. Films like Boogie Nights, Magnolia and Punch-Drunk Love are hardly Oscar friendly. They are a bit bizarre in many ways, which has caused him to be marginalized. However, with Blood, he became a classical director in the style of George Stevens and John Ford. That might appeal to a significant portion of older voters, but the newer ones will be more interested in recognizing the Coens simply because they’ve had a longer, more successful career.
Julian Schnabel could be the underdog. Without a Best Picture nomination, his chances of winning are slim, but the respect he has earned in the industry with only three films is certainly impressive. His nomination may end up being his reward, but The Diving Bell and the Butterfly succeeds largely due to his artistic, assured direction.
Picture
In a competition of quality, there’s no question that There Will Be Blood would be the year’s Best Picture. However, the Academy has seldom chosen the actual best film of the year for its top prize. They’ve also been trying in recent years to avoid spectacle and go instead for smaller, more subversive selections. That points towards a No Country for Old Men victory.
The film also benefits from a seldom connection between the Writers Guild, Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild. Since the SAG’s inception in 1994, only three films have ever one the prize from all four groups. The first was American Beauty in 1999, which went on to pick up the Best Picture prize. The second was The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003. Another four years later, No Country for Old Men picked up all four prizes. This pushes it so far out in front that any other outcome would be a surprise and, depending on the selected winner, could rival 2005’s Crash incident as a suitable comparison.
Atonement has the smallest chance of victory. Only three times in Oscar history has a film without a Best Director nomination picked up the Best Picture prize. The first two times occurred in the Academy’s first decade and the most recent incident was nearly twenty years ago, the same year Daniel Day-Lewis picked up his trophy for My Left Foot. Driving Miss Daisy doesn’t appeal to the same voters as Atonement, so the likelihood of a repeat would be truly bizarre (though, would certainly set a record if Day-Lewis also wins the Actor prize).
Juno was, for a time, considered to be the film with the best shot of overtaking No Country for Old Men and with its box office prowess, it could still very well reap the benefit. However, the year’s top box office winner is not usually the Best Picture winner.
Michael Clayton wasn’t a box office smash, but is significantly well respected in the industry. It’s the kind of film that might have taken the prize forty years ago, but today, it seems almost out of style. However, I wouldn’t put it past Academy members to try and find a way to shock the audience with a surprise victory and this could be it. But I do see an Erin Brockovich kind of resolution its future.
That leaves a terrific spoiler in There Will Be Blood. It has a classicism that Hollywood hasn’t really seen in recent years, but it also has a modernist approach that could appeal to a large swath of Academy members. Even with the semi-violent end in consideration, it’s the film most of old Hollywood probably wishes they could or did still make. So, while I’m sure, as are most others, that No Country for Old Men is going to win this year’s top prize, what a marvelous surprise it would be to have the year’s best film, and easily the best film this decade, win the prize. It would have the potential to become one of Oscar history’s ten best choices ever.
If only that could happen…
When the year finally wraps and the final prize is handed out this Sunday, one thing is certain. This year’s Oscar winners are likely to be as diverse as they ever have been in Academy history. None of the films in contention seems to fit the archetypal Oscar winner mold. It will be interesting to see how the winners this year are looked at in twenty years. Will the winners age well or will they fade into obscurity? I can see some doing both, but it will definitely be a banner year for diverting from the norm.
-Wesley Lovell (February 23, 2007)
That pale, golden glow you see edging over the horizon isn’t the sunrise but Oscar Night. In less than three days, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will put an end to our misery by announcing their awards for 2006. Will there be surprises? Part of me hopes so (say The Queen for Best Picture) but another part of me hopes not (I’d love to see Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson both take home awards for their amazing work in Dreamgirls), but we don’t have a Titanic behind which to lash our Oscar predictions, so we must go out on a limb in a number of cases and realize that being wrong isn’t such a bad thing this year.
The third and final installment of my predictions article starts now. We’ll take a look at the big six categories: acting, directing and picture. These are probably the least suspenseful categories of all of them, so they are likely to be the most surprising should they go a different direction…all except Best Picture, which is a crap shoot.
Supporting Actress
Patterns have a way of developing over time. This year, two possible patterns are converging and the results could be intriguing. The front-runner this year is ingénue Jennifer Hudson whose film debut in Dreamgirls has won the lion’s share of awards. The problem is that history isn’t on her side.
In the last 70 supporting contests twenty-one times have a Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress been a film’s only acting nominations. In those occurrences, only twice have both actors won (and both of those were for Best Picture nominees). This is more of a penalty for Eddie Murphy in Supporting than it is for Hudson as the only two times one of the two have won it’s been the Supporting Actress (Mary Steenburgen in Melvin and Howard and Dorothy Malone in Written on the Wind).
Another set of precedents working in this race is the double Supporting Actress nods. As Babel‘s only acting nominations, Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi join eight other pairs that share the same distinction. With such a small selection, it’s hard to form a theory but when only two of those past competitions saw one of the two actresses win (Helen Hayes for Airport and Tatum O’Neal for Paper Moon). Only one of those victories also came from a Best Picture nomination (from three of the eight that also carry such a mention).
The record is better in the Supporting Actor category, but little does that matter in this contest. There are 19 other situations where two actresses were mentioned in the Supporting Actress category. Of those times, six have seen one of the two winning. These are still not facts that are supporting a win by Barraza, Kikuchi or Hudson.
Cate Blanchett could also be a spoiler with a win for Notes on a Scandal. Though successful as a leading lady, her first victory was in Supporting Actress. History shows that the frequency of an actress winning two supporting trophies is not high and the time between a first and second trophy in that category is lengthy. Two actresses, Dianne Wiest (1986, 1994) and Shelley Winters (1959, 1965) are the only two occurrences. Since Blanchett won only two years ago, her chances are also not good.
That leaves a significant chance for little Abigail Breslin. Her nomination for Little Miss Sunshine is one of only thirteen such nominations for a juvenile performer. One of those thirteen is a lead nomination but Keisha Castle-Hughes didn’t win. However, the only juvenile performances to win competitive Oscars occur in the Supporting Actress category (Patty Duke in The Miracle Worker, Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon and Anna Paquin in The Piano). It’s a better record than many of the others, but still no guarantee.
However, we may have to look to precursors for more clarification. Hudson has taken 11 prizes, including the coveted Screen Actors Guild award. Her nearest competitor is Blacnhett with five followed by Kikuchi with three. Breslin and Barraza have only one award in their name this awards season. SAG’s record in this category is historically low, but in the last five years it has improved dramatically with Helen Mirren losing to Jennifer Connelly five years ago.
This award is Hudson’s to lose and any other outcome would be disappointing to me but wouldn’t be too shocking considering the wide-open race this year.
Supporting Actor
There are so many precedents in play in the Supporting Actor category, I don’t know where to begin and I certainly won’t cover all of them.
Eddie Murphy became the third Saturday Night Live alum to get a nomination for an Oscar. The previous two, however (Dan Aykroyd and Bill Murray) didn’t win. His chief rivals are former child actor Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children, Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine and Mark Wahlberg for The Deaprted. Djimon Hounsou could be a spoiler for his work on Blood Diamond but that outcome seems the most unlikely.
Haley has an interesting statistic that makes his win seem unlikely. Of the 19 times where Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor were a film’s only acting nominations, only three times has the Supporting Actor nominee taken the prize (Charles Coburn for The More the Merrier, Jack Albertson for The Subject Was Roses and Louis Gossett Jr. in An Officer and a Gentleman). Only one film has matched Little Children‘s nominations feat of Actress, Supporting Actor and Writing. In America lost all three awards back in 2003 making the film’s chances fleeting. Some will like the cinematic rebirth tale following Haley around, but that didn’t work for Gloria Stuart.
Arkin could benefit from being the only long-standing Hollywood actor in the bunch. The problem is, like the Supporting Actress categories, veteran actors winning has significantly subsided. Alan Alda, Paul Newman and Albert Finney all took hits at the Oscars despite their status in Hollywood. It’s conceivable that if Little Miss Sunshine is to win Best Picture, a corresponding win here or Supporting Actress would be a possibility.
That leaves Wahlberg whose nomination seems more like Ethan Hawke’s than anything. He’s the lone acting nominee from The Departed which seems to indicate that Hollywood isn’t as in love with the film as they could have been. That said, Wahlberg’s win would be the first for a singer-turned-actor since Cher. That won’t help his chances, especially since he started out in the rap/hip-hop world.
With history once again on no one’s side, we must look at the precursors for a hopeful understanding of what may be to come. Haley has the most prizes with eight but he didn’t nab either the Golden Globe or the SAG award. His are mostly critics prizes which aren’t terribly prognosticative. SAG and the GGs are, however. In their paired history, SAG and the Globes have only agreed on two Supporting Actor winners (Martin Landau in Ed Wood and Tim Robbins in Mystic River). Though that’s only a 12 year period shared between them, it’s pretty telling that the only times they have agreed, the winner received the Oscar. This is the only good news for Murphy as this may be a nail biter all the way to the end.
Actress
There’s almost no reason to discuss this race. For the first time in decades, the bookies have actually started paying out some bets on Helen Mirren to win for her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen. Matter of fact, there’s no one I know that doesn’t believe she’ll win this. She has received a staggering 27 precursor awards and will become the first queen to win the lead trophy since Katharine Hepburn won for The Lion in Winter 38 years ago. She would also be only the second royal monarch to claim the prize for Best Actress.
Of course, we all know what happened when Hepburn won, a young ingénue named Barbra Streisand tied for the prize for her work in Funny Girl. It was the only such occurrence in this category and one of a limited few in Oscar’s 79-year history. Who could possibly tie Dame Mirren or even beat her? Likely no one, but let’s look at each of her competitors and see.
Judi Dench seems the most likely. She’s the only actress to approach Helen in age or experience. Her performance in Notes on a Scandal may be too much for many voters, potentially shutting her out of consideration.
Penelope Cruz, like Salma Hayek before her, will be an also-ran. Foreign language performances just don’t win this category. Two out of the 78 spoke a different language (Sophia Loren spoke Italian in Two Women and Marlee Matlin used American Sign Language in Children of a Lesser God). If anyone, Cruz would be like Loren, a beautiful and talented actress whose performances in foreign lingo pics have been lauded for years. However, against such other young competition, it will be hard for her to siphon off enough votes to pull an upset.
Meryl Streep has two Oscars and it seems highly unlikely that the Academy will give her a third trophy for something so slight as a comedy. She has many years of work left in her, so I doubt they’ll be ready to heft more prizes on her for a very long time.
That leaves Kate Winslet would could pull a surprise. Though only three actresses in the Actress/Supporting Actor conundrum in the Supporting Actor category above have ever won, Winslet most certainly could. She has more Oscar nominations under her belt by the age of 31 than any other actor. Five mentions but no wins means either she’s a serious threat to Mirren or she’s destined to win sometime in the near future.
My bet is the near future because there’s nothing standing in the way of a Royal victory by Mirren.
Actor
Becoming the first “royal” pair to win the Top prize, Forest Whitaker should easily win for his portrayal of The Last King of Scotland. While not truly a king, Whitaker plays Ugandan dictator Idi Amin who claims a kinship to the Scots and takes on the titular appellation. He has won nearly as many prizes as Mirren has (23) but his handicap is Academy history.
No actor has ever made it to his or her eighth nomination and not won. Al Pacino and Geraldine Page both picked up their competitive Oscars on their eighth try. This gives Peter O’Toole a leg up in a category that, in the past, has landed legendary actors Oscars. Paul Newman and Henry Fonda are the most notable examples. However, sentiment doesn’t rear its head often with the Academy with legendary performers like Lauren Bacall going into the night a heavy favorite and walking away empty handed.
There is one actor in this category who could benefit from a split vote. Will Smith’s performance in Pursuit of Happyness pushes all the right emotional buttons and could turn the rapper-turned-actor into the first such person since Cher to win. If both he and Wahlberg win precedents will shatter all over the place. Smith’s been giving out Oscar caliber performances for years now and this might be the chance for him to get recognized.
The most delightful spoiler would be if Ryan Gosling were to win for his amazing performance in Half-Nelson. Not only would it be the most shocking upset in Oscar history (pushing aside the likes of Adrien Brody, Marisa Tomei and Juliette Binoche), it would also be one of the most praised. Sure everyone has a favorite and plenty would be happy enough to see Whitaker win, but many of those same people would crow over a Gosling victory as a step in the right direction for the Academy.
The last contender for the award is previously Oscar nominated thesp Leonardo DiCaprio. After his first nomination for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, he made a series of poor screen choices that made Hollywood question if he was little more than a teenage pin-up looking to be taken seriously. Then he began turning in one wonderful performance after another. He got his second mention for The Aviator after being snubbed for Gangs of New York. His third outing with Scorsese yielded another shot at gold, but placement confusion resulted in his third nomination going to his work in Blood Diamond and not The Departed. That one error pushed him to the bottom of the list where many believe he can’t triumph. And against other Hollywood heavy-hitters like O’Toole and Smith, it’s hard to conceive of him winning.
Stranger things have happened, but this is Whitaker’s to lose.
Director
After more than 30 years as an also-ran, Martin Scorsese finally looks poised to pick up the trophy for Best Director. While his best work may be behind him, Hollywood won’t give up the opportunity to finally recognize one of Hollywood’s last living directing legends.
But we’ve thought that twice before. Both The Aviator and Gangs of New York generated huge buzz and the talk was everywhere about him finally winning. Those opportunities came and passed and Scorsese remains Oscar-less. Now, he has a Directors Guild of America award to back him up (something he has never had before, either) and it’s a very rare occurrence that the DGA winner doesn’t also win Best Director. That’s where recent history comes into play. While it was generally only once a decade that the winners didn’t match up, it has happened twice this decade and we’re only five years in. Ang Lee lost to Steven Soderbergh in 2000 and Rob Marshall lost to Roman Polanski in 2002 (the last time Scorsese was nominated). It could happen again, but who could benefit from such a split?
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is a relatively new director and though is film is a front-runner for Best Picture, he is not. Gonzalez Inarritu has many more years to prove himself and will not likely claim victory this night.
Stephen Frears’ film The Queen isn’t as much of a front-runner as it might have been a month or two ago. Frears will have to live with the designator of also-ran.
Clint Eastwood already has two directing trophies and while it wouldn’t be unprecedented for him to win (John Ford won the same number of prizes in approximately the same period of time), it would require a huge last-minute groundswell of support for Letters from Iwo Jima to result in its victory here. If it does win, however, Best Picture will almost assuredly go to Iwo Jima.
That leaves Paul Greengrass. His United 93 was certainly well respected and though it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, he is still a contender. He has decades of precedent against him as directors of pictures not selected for Best Picture rarely win, but with the emotional impact of his film, he could be the benefactor.
Still, conventional wisdom points to Scorsese as the victor and far be it from me defy conventional wisdom on this one.
Picture
There hasn’t been a Best Picture line-up this difficult to predict in a very long time. Each film has its pros and cons and any of them could actually win.
Starting with the least likely, Letters from Iwo Jima suffers from two problems. The first is that Eastwood has been honored already for his work and the Academy isn’t likely to duplicate that so soon. The other is that it’s a foreign language picture. Not in the history of the awards has a film entirely in another language managed to take the Top prize. If anyone could break that record though, it would be Eastwood.
The most likely benefactor of a split in votes between the remaining three films is The Queen. The film played incredibly well with critics, but it was snubbed in several key categories, include Supporting Actor and its support has waned significantly in the past couple of months. Still, if there were a film in this list I would like to see win above the others, The Queen would receive that designation.
Decades of history say that Little Miss Sunshine won’t win Best Picture, but a lot of people believe that it’s touching and heart-felt portrayal of middle class familial angst may be just want the doctor ordered to play down years of serious fare in this category. But there are two things crippling it. It has no Director or Film Editing nomination. These categories have significant impact on Best Picture victors. The former has only happened three times, two in the early days and one with Driving Miss Daisy back in ’89. The latter is a little more common in that ten times in the last 71 years has an editing omission claimed Top -spot victory. This latter fact isn’t helped by a 26-year hiatus since the last occurrence. Still, Little Miss Sunshine picked up the SAG award for Best Ensemble (the only major precursor Crash claimed before its upset victory last year) and the less reliable PGA award for Best Production.
Running second to my prediction for Best Picture is Scorsese’s Boston mafia drama The Departed. It is the most successful among the nominees at the box office, but success is fleeting and its lack of support in the acting categories may be a hindrance. Another factor running counter to a Departed victory is that it didn’t pick up a needed GG or PGA victory. Either of those prizes might have moved it to the forefront, but its future is questionable. The film also has no message. Unlike most past winners, Departed has no overarching theme of importance. It’s merely a good suspense yarn. That could propel it to victory, but it may doom it as well.
My vote for the winner of this year’s Best Picture trophy is Babel. Like Crash last year, Babel puts forth a pro-peace and understanding philosophy that appeals to voters. It’s a message movie that many will feel represents their ideals to the world at large. For this reason alone, I think it will triumph. Other things going for it is its nods in both Best Director and Best Film Editing. Sharing that designation only with The Departed, Babel also has the Golden Globe for Best Drama, a prize that Departed couldn’t claim.
Many factors will be in play, but these seem to point more towards a Babel victory than anything else.
When the Oscars are over and we’re ruminating on the winners, be sure to remind yourself how unpredictable a year it was. Outside of the acting and directing categories, many of the winners were up in the air right until the end. Also rest assured in the fact that at least 50% of the public will disagree with any selection and at least 10% of those will have something to say about it. Best wishes in all of your predictions.
-Wesley Lovell (February 23, 2007)
