When we tackle the second tier categories, we are more likely to find signs that point towards a Best Picture victory. Certain elements can always throw wrenches into the proceedings, but with most of these categories, the race may become more clear or possibly more murky.
Documentary Feature
Alongside Foreign Language Film, the Documentary Feature category (along with the short film categories) requires members to attend special screenings so they can see all the work up for the prize. This has often generated more unusual and less populist outcomes in previous years. It used to be a given that the more touching the story, the more likely it is to win. In recent years, the trend has shifted towards more political fare. This year, we have two films tackling issues with Iraq, two exploring the perversions of the church and one suggesting global warming is a bigger threat than we imagine.
With such similar subject matters from its competitors and a virtual sweep of precursors, An Inconvenient Truth looks a far more likely winner than the others. Add to its impressive resume former Vice-President Al Gore and a producers credit to the long-line of documentary producing Guggenheims and you have a winner that seems unlikely to lose.
Watch out for Iraq in Fragments, Deliver Us from Evil and Jesus Camp. Fragments seems far more likely for an upset since it doesn’t touch a very delicate religious subject, but it may split votes with the more Academy friendly My Country My Country.
Animated Feature
This category seems to be down to two films. Despite critical support, Monster House feels like an also ran, though a victory on Oscar Night would certainly be interesting.
Cars is John Lasseter’s second Oscar nomination in this category, but he has four total nods to his credit. Many may recognize the name and want to award him for bringing a boy-friendly subject to the screen and getting Paul Newman out of retirement to voice a character in the film. However, Happy Feet poses a genuine threat with its breathtaking animation.
This competition comes down to which of the two mega animation houses, whose histories are varied and impressive, will win the night. Disney didn’t own Pixar when Cars was released and Lasseter has an Honorary Oscar. Nevertheless, a victory here would validate Disney’s acquisition. This one may come down to the wire, but Cars actually made more money at the box office than Happy Feet, which is surprising considering the strength of the latter. But the bigger box office winner tends to win this category unless a legendary animator owed recognition comes along…and this year there isn’t one in sight.
Foreign Language Film
Foreign film has had more surprise victories than any other category in Oscar history. Just in recent years, the expected winners went down in defeat (1996: Ridicule lost to Kolya, 2001: Amélie lost to No Man’s Land, 2002: Hero lost to Nowhere in Africa). With both light and heavy fare losing out, it’s hard to point to a specific trend in choices but this category will often choose the more emotionally viable for the prize.
This works for and against the current lead contender Pan’s Labyrinth. It is a sorrow-filled film that would normally appeal to the Academy’s membership but its dark and bloody edge might turn off several voters.
What film could take its place on Oscar night?
The Lives of Others is a film about the oppression of free speech, which makes great bedfellows with the Academy. That it also covers domestic spying could be a boon for the film.
Another popular subject with the Academy is oppression of women. In Water, the film explores how Indian women were put into convents when their husbands died to live out the rest of their lives in separation. Though not your typical sexual harassment type film, its subject matter could appeal to certain segments of the votership.
Days of Glory explores World War II France and its treatment of black soldiers. This is another area that tends to light a fire under voters and could prove a spoiler.
The least likely to win is also the surprise nominee from Oscar Morning. After the Wedding is about the head of an orphanage given $4 million in order to save his kids’ home in exchange for his participation in a wedding. The plot seems ill-suited to Oscar voters. But with three films focusing on oppression splitting the vote, this film could easily benefit from a dispersal of votes among the membership.
However, Pan’s Labyrinth remains the front runner because of its myriad Oscar nominations (though that didn’t help Amélie) and its obvious popularity with critics and audiences alike.
Original Screenplay
Seldom has the Original Screenplay been such a bellwether for an Oscar race. Four Best Picture nominees find themselves up for this award. Letters from Iwo Jima seems as unlikely a winner as non-Best Picture-nominated Pan’s Labyrinth.
For quite awhile, The Queen was considered to be the frontrunner here but after recent selections by the Writers Guild of America, we’ve found a disconnect between popular thought and critical consensus.
Little Miss Sunshine won WGA and it has also picked up Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild honors. That puts it in the lead for this year’s Oscar for Original Screenplay. Comedies don’t often do well at the Oscars, but this little film seems ripe for Oscar picking.
The key to the Best Picture race is if LMS loses to either The Queen or Babel. If it loses at all, its chances at Best Picture are virtually washed down the drain unless a surprise occurs in the Supporting Actor category. If The Queen is the victor, the race remains muddled with a Best Picture showdown still obvious. If Babel surprises here with a win, Best Picture will virtually belong to the Gonzalez Inarritu project.
The big surprise for this category, however, would be a victory by Letters from Iwo Jima. If that should occur, not only could Martin Scorsese lose another directing Oscar to Clint Eastwood, Eastwood’s film could pull of a stunning victory at the end of the night. All three of these events seem unlikely, but a victory here would make all of them a distinct possibility.
Adapted Screenplay
Only one Best Picture nominee figures in this race and Adapted Screenplay is The Departed‘s to lose. Borat‘s nomination, like other similar nominations (any animated film nomination in the writing categories), is its reward. Little Children didn’t prove popular enough to earn more than a couple of acting nods, nor did Notes on a Scandal.
The true competition this year is between The Departed and the critically acclaimed Children of Men. History shows us that Best Picture nominees are far more likely to win a writing award than not. Since 1956 when the Original and Adapted Screenplay categories were established, eight times has only one of the Best Picture nominees been among the Adapted Screenplay nods. Fourteen have been the sole nominee in the Original Screenplay category. Only since 1991 has that not guaranteed victory. Of those 22 occurrences, six have failed to win the screenplay award. Twice that has been the Martin Scorsese film among the nominations. This is a telling fact as it could point towards a loss by The Departed in this category.
But the statistics may be forced to sit on the sidelines. Only one of those six losses in the screenplay categories was for an Adaptation. Matter of fact, it is more apparent that Adapted Screenplay sole nominees (seven of eight) are more likely of victory than Original Screenplay lone noms (nine of fourteen). The Departed has limited history on his side, but an upset will point towards a likely Departed loss in the Best Picture category.
(Presented Facts: 1958: The Defiant Ones, 1960: The Apartment, 1965: Darling, 1967: In the Heat of the Night (Adapted), 1969: Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, 1973: The Exorcist (Adapted), 1975: Dog Day Afternoon (Adapted), 1977: Julia (Adapted), 1981: On Golden Pond (Adapted), 1984: Places in the Heart, 1985: Witness, 1988: Rain Man, 1989: Dead Poets Society, 1990: Ghost, 1991: Bugsy *lost, 1993: The Piano, 1995: Braveheart *lost, 1996: The English Patient *lost (Adapted), 1997: L.A. Confidential (Adapted), 1998: The Thin Red Line *lost (Adapted), 2001: Gosford Park, 2002: Gangs of New York *lost, 2003: Lost in Translation, 2004: The Aviator. *lost)
Original Song
Only three films in history have ever received three Oscar nominations for Best Original Song. Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King and now Dreamgirls. Both previous films saw one song win the award (“Beauty and the Beast” and “Can You Feel the Love Tonight”). This suggests that Dreamgirls should easily sail to victory this year. However, both Melissa Etheridge and Randy Newman could put a sTop to that. Both are far better known and after last year’s anti-gay debacle, Etheridge might be a tasty winner.
Although it lost out on a number of Oscar nominations, Dreamgirls is still the odds-on favorite for this category. Since “Listen” has gotten significantly more air play, my guess would be that it’s the song to beat even though both “Love You I Do” and “Patience” are better songs.
Another factor pointing towards a Dreamgirls victory is this category has recently become more consistent in its selection of songs that form a part of the narrative structure as opposed to being tacked on. Sure plenty of end-credits songs have won, but lately (“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” and “Lose Yourself”) have proven that being included is a great help. The other mitigating factor is that musicals have a better chance at a song victory than do non-musicals. All signs continue to point to Dreamgirls but with the backlash the film has received so far, it may take all of its supporters getting behind one song to bring it to victory.
Original Score
Original Score is a bizarre category that has very few rules. Often times, the winner is the most orchestral of the scores. Other times, it’s the most dramatically and thematically appropriate. It really depends on which is more pronounced and obvious.
Of this year’s nominees, we have four scoring notables and one relative unknown. Though Javier Navarrete has been scoring Spanish-language productions since the 1980s, his name is hardly as famed as Philip Glass or Thomas Newman and to a lesser extent Alexandre Desplat and Gustavo Santaolalla.
Pan’s Labyrinth‘s score is the most memorable of these five films and if enough members have seen it, it could score a victory. However, Glass has gotten his third nomination and has long been a big name among composers. His nomination is likely his reward since non-honored Thomas Newman, who has eight nominations and no Oscars, could win on that basis. The problem is The Good German was hardly a contender this year and its dismal performance could sink the long-ignored composer.
Desplat has an impressive resume, but many feel he should have been nommed for The Painted Veil as his score for The Queen is hardly explosive or noticeable. That gives it credence to those who understand film composition, but not every voter will recognize that.
This leaves us with Santaolalla who won last year for Brokeback Mountain. I believe he can win this year because of that victory and for being the hot young composer. But, his recent victory is also a hindrance as many may not feel he is ready to win a second Oscar so soon. If Babel wins here, as I think it could, Best Picture might be in the bag (with a companion Editing win).
Because I like it best and I think the Academy will too (they did honor the film with six nominations after all), I’m making my prediction for Pan’s Labyrinth, though any of these others could easily win.
Looking above, you’ll find only a couple of categories that could point to the eventual winner. However, with such a volatile year, it’s hard to see a victory among these categories without seeing them all on Oscar Night. Suffice it to say, we’ll all be watching for signs of where the night will go.
-Wesley Lovell (February 21, 2007)
