78th Academy Awards (2005): Winner Predictions

The 78th Academy Awards (2005): Winner Predictions

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

• Brokeback Mountain – Diana Ossana, James Schamus (c-12/14) — Even —
• Crash – Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman — 3:2 —
• Good Night, and Good Luck. – Grant Heslov — 2:1 —
• Munich – Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg, Barry Mendel — 3:1 —
• Capote – Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven — 10:1 —

Best Animated Feature

• Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit – Nick Park, Steve Box [10/9] -Even- (c-) — Even —
• Tim Burton’s The Corpse Bride – Tim Burton, Mike Johnson — 2:1 —
• Howl’s Moving Castle – Hayao Miyazaki — 3:1 —

Best Director

• Brokeback Mountain – Ang Lee (c-12/14) — Even —
• Good Night, and Good Luck. – George Clooney — 3:2 —
• Munich – Steven Spielberg — 2:1 —
• Crash – Paul Haggis — 4:1 —
• Capote – Bennet Miller — 10:1 —

Best Actor

• Capote – Philip Seymour Hoffman (c-1/29) — Even —
• Brokeback Mountain – Heath Ledger — 3:2 —
• Walk the Line – Joaquin Phoenix — 2:1 —
• Good Night, and Good Luck. – David Strathairn — 5:2 —
• Hustle & Flow – Terrence Howard — 4:1 —

Best Actress

• Walk the Line – Reese Witherspoon (c-11/17) — Even —
• Transamerica – Felicity Huffman — 3:2 —
• North Country – Charlize Theron — 5:1 —
• Pride & Prejudice – Keira Knightley — 6:1 —
• Mrs. Henderson Presents – Judi Dench — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actor

• Syriana – George Clooney (c-1/29) — Even —
• Brokeback Mountain – Jake Gyllenhaal — 3:2 —
• Cinderella Man – Paul Giamatti — 3:2 —
• Crash – Matt Dillon — 2:1 —
• A History of Violence – William Hurt — 7:1 —

Best Supporting Actress

• The Constant Gardener – Rachel Weisz (c-1/9) — Even —
• Brokeback Mountain – Michelle Williams — 3:2 —
• Junebug – Amy Adams — 2:1 —
• Capote – Catherine Keener — 2:1 —
• North Country – Frances McDormand — 7:1 —

Best Original Screenplay

• Crash – Paul Haggis (c-2/4) — Even —
• Good Night, and Good Luck. – George Clooney, Grant Heslov — Even —
• Syriana – Stephen Gaghan — 3:2 —
• The Squid and the Whale – Noah Baumbach — 3:1 —
• Match Point – Woody Allen — 5:1 —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Brokeback Mountain – Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana (c-10/9) — Even —
• Munich – Tony Kushner, Eric Roth — 3:2 —
• Capote – Dan Futterman — 2:1 —
• The Constant Gardener – Jeffrey Caine — 3:1 —
• A History of Violence – Josh Olson — 4:1 —

Best Original Song

• Transamerica – Travelin Thru (c-12/14) — Even —
• Hustle & Flow – It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp — Even —
• Crash – In the Deep — Even —

Best Original Score

• Brokeback Mountain – Gustavo Santaolalla (c-1/29) — Even —
• Memoirs of a Geisha – John Williams — Even —
• Munich – John Williams — 3:2 —
• The Constant Gardener – Alberto Iglesias — 5:1 —
• Pride & Prejudice – Dario Marianelli — 5:1 —

Best Editing

• Crash – Hughes Winborne (c-1/31) — Even —
• The Constant Gardener – Claire Simpson — 3:2 —
• Munich – Michael Kahn — 3:2 —
• Cinderella Man – Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill — 2:1 —
• Walk the Line – Michael McCusker — 5:1 —

Best Cinematography

• Brokeback Mountain – Rodrigo Prieto (c-1/29) — Even —
• Memoirs of a Geisha – Dion Beebe — 3:2 —
• Good Night, and Good Luck. – Robert Elswit — 3:2 —
• The New World – Emmanuel Lubezki — 2:1 —
• Batman Begins – Wally Pfister — 10:1 —

Best Art Direction

• Memoirs of a Geisha – John Myhre, Gretchen Rau (c-1/29) — Even —
• King Kong – Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright — 3:2 —
• Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan — 3:2 —
• Good Night, and Good Luck. – Jim Bissell, Jan Pascale — 2:1 —
• Pride & Prejudice – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — 4:1 —

Best Costume Design

• Memoirs of a Geisha – Colleen Atwood (c-7/3) — Even —
• Pride & Prejudice – Jacqueline Durran — 3:2 —
• Mrs. Henderson Presents – Sandy Powell — 2:1 —
• Charlie and the Chocolate Factory – Gabriella Pescucci — 4:1 —
• Walk the Line – Arianne Phillips — 10:1 —

Best Makeup

• The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe – Howard Berger, Tami Lane (c-7/3) — Even —
• Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith – David Elsey, Annette Miles — Even —
• Cinderella Man – David Leroy Anderson, Lance Anderson — 5:1 —

Best Sound Mixing

• Walk the Line – Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland (c-3/5) — Even —
• King Kong – Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek — Even —
• War of the Worlds – Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ronald Judkins — 2:1 —
• The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe – Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic, Tony Johnson — 3:1 —
• Memoirs of a Geisha – Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline, John Pritchett — 7:1 —

Best Sound Editing

• King Kong – Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn (c-7/3) — Even —
• War of the Worlds – Richard King — 3:2 —
• Memoirs of a Geisha – Wylie Stateman — 7:1 —

Best Visual Effects

• King Kong – Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor (c-12/14) — Even —
• The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe – Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney, Scott Farrar — 3:2 —
• War of the Worlds – Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick — 3:1 —

Best Foreign Film

• Tsotsi – South Africa (c-1/29) — Even —
• Sophie Scholl – The Final Days – Germany — 3:2 —
• Paradise Now – Palestine — 3:2 —
• Joyeux Noel – France — 3:2 —
• Bestia Nel Cuore, La – Italy — 4:1 —

Best Documentary Feature

• March of the Penguins – Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau (c-10/9) — Even —
• Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room – Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot — 3:2 —
• Murderball – Henry-Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro — 2:1 —
• Street Fight – Marshall Curry — 3:1 —
• Darwin’s Nightmare – Hubert Sauper — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• God Sleeps in Rwanda – Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman (c-10/28) — Even —
• The Mushroom Club – Steven Okazaki — 3:2 —
• The Death of Kevin Carter – Dan Krauss — 2:1 —
• A Note of Triumph – Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson — 3:1 —

Best Animated Short Film

• The Moon and the Son – John Canemaker and Peggy Stern (c-1/31) — Even —
• The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello – Anthony Lucas — 3:2 —
• Badgered – Sharon Colman — 3:2 —
• 9 – Shane Acker — 3:2 —
• One Man Band – Andrew Jimenez, Mark Andrews — 3:2 —

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Our Time Is Up – Rob Pearlstein, Pia Clemente (c-1/31) — Even —
• The Last Farm – Rnar Rnarsson, Thor S. Sigurjnsson — 3:2 —
• Six Shooter – Martin McDonagh — 3:2 —
• Ausreisser (The Runaway) – Ulrike Grote — 2:1 —
• Cashback – Sean Ellis, Lene Bausager — 2:1 —