78th Academy Awards (2005): The Hopefuls

NOMINATIONS		AWARDS
9 8 7 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – –	Brokeback Mountain Good Night, and Good Luck King Kong Crash Walk the Line The Chronicles of Narnia Munic Cinderella Man Memoirs of a Geisha Capote The Constant Gardener Star Wars: Episode III	6 3 2 1 – – – – – – – – – –	Brokeback Mountain King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha Capote The Chronicles of Narnia The Constant Gardener God Sleeps in Rwanda Good Night, and Good Luck March of the Penguins Syriana Transamerica Tsotsi Walk the Line Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-First Chart Placement, n-Nom Pred Date Set, o-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Nomination —
Nominee Prediction (c-First Chart Placement, n-Nom Pred Date Set) — Chance at Nomination —
Alternate Prediction (c-First Chart Placement) — Chance at Nomination —

CHANCE AT NOMINATION:
Strong: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Good: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Average: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Weak: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the othrs above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “Poor” description.
Poor: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain (c-7/3, n-10/9, o-12/14) — Strong —
Good Night, and Good Luck (c-7/3, n-10/9) — Good —
Walk the Line (c-11/17, n-12/9) — Good —
Capote (c-12/14, n-1/9) — Average —
Crash (c-10/9, n-1/9) — Average —
Munich (c-7/3) — Average —
Cinderella Man (c-7/3) — Average —
The Constant Gardener (c-7/3) — Average —
A History of Violence (c-7/3) — Average —
King Kong (c-7/3) — Average —
Match Point (c-7/3) — Weak —
Memoirs of a Geisha (c-7/3) — Weak —
The New World (c-7/3) — Weak —
Syriana (c-11/17) — Weak —
The Squid and the Whale (c-12/14) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
With the PGA weighed in on their choice, it looks like Brokeback has this award to lose. I think this will be a perfect match to the PGA for nominations with Munich, Cinderella Man, A History of Violence and Munich as the only contenders that might knock the weakest linke (Capote) from its perch.

Best Animated Film

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-10/9) — Strong —
Madagascar (c-7/3, n-7/3) — Good —
Chicken Little (c-7/3, n-7/3) — Average —
Howl’s Moving Castle (c-7/3) — Average —
Tim Burton’s The Corpse Bride (c-7/3) — Average —
Hoodwinked (c-11/17) — Weak —
Robots (c-7/3) — Weak —
Valiant (c-7/3) — Poor–
Gulliver’s Travels (c-11/17) — Poor–
Steamboy (c-11/17) — Poor–

These are the Official Selections for the Animated Feature Category.

My Thoughts:
Wallace & Gromit is the only lock for this Category. Madagascar is going to be the second of the three but it’s the third slot that could be worrisome. Chicken Little has Disney backing and since the Animation branch has primarily big studio associations, it should be the third nominee. However, watch out for darkhorse critics fave and previous Oscar winner Hayao Miyazaki who’s Howl’s Moving Castle has been named slightly less frequently as Wallace & Gromit as one of the best animated pics of the year. Only it seems to be poised to knock Chicken Little from its perch.

Best Director

Brokeback Mountain – Ang Lee (c-7/3, n-10/9, o-12/14) — Strong —
Good Night, and Good Luck – George Clooney (c-7/3, n-10/9) — Strong —
Munich – Steven Spielberg (c-7/3, n-7/3) — Good —
Crash – Paul Haggis (c-10/9, n-1/9) — Average —
A History of Violence – David Cronenberg (c-7/3, n-1/9) — Average —
Walk the Line – James Mangold (c-11/17) — Average —
Cinderella Man – Ron Howard (c-7/3) — Average —
The Constant Gardener – Fernando Meirelles (c-7/3) — Average —
Capote – Bennet Miller (c-12/14) — Average —
Match Point – Woody Allen (c-7/3) — Weak —
King Kong – Peter Jackson (c-7/3) — Average —
The New World – Terrence Malick (c-7/3) — Weak —
Syriana – Stephen Gaghan (c-11/17) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
With the PGA and DGA in the bag for Brokeback, Ang Lee seems a lock for Best Director. As a friend (thanks, Pete) pointed out, never in the history of the DGA has an director won his second DGA honor and not taken home Best Picture at the Oscars. Clooney’s an actor, so he’ll make the cut. Spielberg’s got a lot of support now in the Academy. It’s very likely that Munich will ride a late wave of support to a nomination for the director. Paul Haggis is a veteran, even if it is on television, thus making him a likely contender.The odd ball out director (though Spielberg won’t likely get a best pic nod either) is usually from a very small, critically-beloved film that screams auteur. That seems to point at David Cronenberg as the best choice. With Capote hanging onto its best picture hopes by a thread, Bennett Miller seems the easiest to excies from the list. Mangold could replace Spielberg and Mereilles could replace Cronenberg. Peter Jackson, Woody Allen or Terrence Malic could also surprise with a nomination. If Cinderella Man pulls a Seabiscuit, we could see another nomination for the Academy’s now-loved Ron Howard.

Best Actor

Capote – Philip Seymour Hoffman (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-1/29) — Strong —
Brokeback Mountain – Heath Ledger (c-7/3, n-10/9) — Strong —
Walk the Line – Joaquin Phoenix (c-7/3, n-7/3) — Good —
Good Night, and Good Luck – David Strathairn (c-7/3, n-10/9) — Good —
Cinderella Man – Russell Crowe (c-7/3, n-1/29) — Average —
Hustle & Flow – Terrence Howard (c-c-7/3) — Average —
The Constant Gardener – Ralph Fiennes (c-7/3) — Average —
The Squid and the Whale – Jeff Daniels (c-12/14) — Average —
A History of Violence – Viggo Mortensen (c-7/3) — Average —
Munich – Eric Bana (c-7/3) — Weak —
Breakfast on Pluto – Cillian Murphy (c-12/14) — Weak —
Brokeback Mountain – Jake Gyllenhaal (c-7/3) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
How times change. Russell now looks like an uncertain fifth spotter in place of Terrenec Howard is very likely to get his nomination in Crash based on its victory at the SAG awards. Ledger, Hoffman, Strathairn and Phoenix are all pretty much locked. Jeff Daniels could sneak in but his chances have seriously diminished with the returns of his films in early critics awards. Mortensen, could benefit from a resurgance of support for Hiatory of Violence. The same can also be said for Fiennes if Constant Gardener comes on strong.

Best Actress

Walk the Line – Reese Witherspoon (c-7/3, n-10/9, o-11/17) — Strong —
Transamerica – Felicity Huffman (c-10/28, n-12/9) — Good —
Mrs. Henderson Presents – Judi Dench (c-10/28, n-11/17) — Average —
North Country – Charlize Theron (c-7/3, n-12/14) — Average —
The Upside of Anger – Joan Allen (c-7/3, n-1/29) — Average —
Memoirs of a Geisha – Ziyi Zhang (c-7/3) — Average —
The Squid and the Whale – Laura Linney (c-7/3) — Average —
Pride and Prejudice – Keira Knightley (c-12/9) — Average —
King Kong – Naomi Watts (c-7/3) — Average —
Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont – Joan Plowright (c-12/9) — Weak —
Proof – Gwyneth Paltrow (c-7/3) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
Reese looks likely to repeat her GG & SAG wins at the Oscars. Her only competition is Felicity Huffman who’s been winning in other categories all year (Emmys, Golden Globes, SAG). Dench and Theron are good bets but incredibly weak and could easily be toppled by a surprise surge from other bubbling-under types. Joan Allen tentatively moves into the fifth spot but could easily be sacrifices for any other name on the list. Linney’s chances have slid tremendously but Zhang could be the only representative from Geisha to make a showing. We could also see Knightley coming from behind to finish fifth. The bottom three spots are fought over by six or seven actress if you Watts as holding on by a thread.

Best Supporting Actor

Syriana – George Clooney (c-12/9, n-1/9, o-1/29) — Average —
Brokeback Mountain – Jake Gyllenhaal (c-7/3, n-12/9) — Strong —
Cinderella Man – Paul Giamatti (c-7/3, n-12/14) — Good —
Crash – Matt Dillon (c-11/17, n-12/14) — Average —
Crash – Terrence Howard (c-12/14, n-1/29) — Average —
Good Night, and Good Luck – Frank Langella (c-11/17) — Average —
A History of Violence – William Hurt (c-7/3) — Average —
Capote – Clifton Collins Jr. (c-11/17) — Average —
Munich – Ciaran Hinds (c-1/2) — Average —
The Upside of Anger – Kevin Costner (c-12/14) — Average —
Casanova – Oliver Platt (c-12/14) — Weak —
Crash – Don Cheadle (c-11/17) — Weak —
Munich – Geoffrey Rush (c-7/3) — Weak —
Munich – Matthieu Kassovitz (c-11/17) — Weak —
Rent – Jesse L. Martin (c-7/3) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
Giamatti couldn’t so much as earn a nomination last year for Sideways. The Academy shouldn’t feel obliged to give him a trophy for ignoring him, so a nomination should be enough. Clooney will win here if Crash wins in Original Screenplay. Otherwise, he’s still a good bet being the only long-seen contender in the list. Gyllenhaal’s guaranteed a nomination, but like Ledger, may be too young to compete with the guys (Oscar loves young women, not so much young men). Crash’s success at the SAG awards seems to indicate a support base that’s swelling. Dillon and Howard could be swept in as a result. This is probably the category that’s the least easy to predict just because anyone could get a nomination in the two currently Crash-assigned spots. Langella could get a career nod and then be a serious contender for a win. William Hurt could become the only past Oscar winner nominated…or even the only past Oscar nominee. Right now, it’s looking like a no show from past Oscar bedfellows.

Best Supporting Actress

The Constant Gardener – Rachel Weisz (c-12/14, n-1/2, o-1/9) — Good —
Brokeback Mountain – Michelle Williams (c-11/17, n-12/9) — Good —
Junebug – Amy Adams (c-10/28, n-11/17) — Good —
A History of Violence – Maria Bello (c-7/3, n-1/9) — Average —
North Country – Frances McDormand (c-12/14, n-1/29) — Average —
Capote – Catherine Keener (c-11/17) — Good —
Memoirs of a Geisha – Gong Li (c-7/3) — Average —
Match Point – Scarlett Johansson (c-12/9) — Average —
Crash – Thandie Newton (c-1/29)
In Her Shoes – Shirley MacLaine (c-12/14) — Average —
The Family Stone – Diane Keaton (c-10/28) — Average —
Memoirs of a Geisha – Michelle Yeoh (c-7/3) — Average —
The New World – Q’Orianka Kilcher (c-7/3) — Average —
Brokeback Mountain – Anne Hathaway (c-11/17) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
Maybe this category is the most competitive. Weisz is assured a nomination and likely the Oscar after picking up the SAG and appearing in such a socially-relevant role. Williams will ride the Brokeback bronco to a nomination and Amy Adams is sure to get the indie-darling spot. Maria Bello’s largely leading performance and Frances McDormand as the only past nominee of the bunch, will likely round out the Category. If there are to Supporting Actor nominations for Crash, Oscar history requires another nomination in another category (there has never been an occasion with more than one supporting actor fromt he same film is nominated and another cast member hasn’t been). It will either be Thandie Newton or no one else. Catherine Keener’s short screen time and poor performance at the SAG awards may mean she’s left aside, but she could easily replace any given nominee. Scarlett Johnasson’s chances are as good as gone, despite giving a fantastic performance. She could be a surprise nominee if the Academy agrees that Woody’s truly had his comeback. Gong Li could ride a surprise wave of support for Memoirs of a Geisha. And there’s even the slight, though rather remote, chance that veterans Shirley MacLaine or Diane Keaton could make an appearance.

Best Original Screenplay

Good Night, and Good Luck – George Clooney, Grant Heslov (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-11/17) — Strong —
Crash – Paul Haggis (c-10/9, n-10/9) — Strong —
The Squid and the Whale – Noah Baumbach (c-10/28, n-12/14) — Strong —
Cinderella Man – Cliff Hollingsworth, Akiva Goldsman (c-7/3, n-12/28) — Good —
Match Point – Woody Allen (c-7/3, n-7/3) — Good —
The 40 Year Old Virgin (c-1/9) — Average —
Syriana – Stephen Gaghan (c-1/30) — Average —
Hustle & Flow (c-12/14) — Average —
Junebug (c-12/14) — Average —
The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada – Guillermo Arriaga (c-7/3) — Average —
Broken Flowers – Jim Jarsmusch (c-7/3) — Weak —
White Countess – Kazuo Ishiguro (c-7/3) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
I think the big surprise here could be 40 Year Old Virgin snagging Woody Allen’s spot. He’s the weakest contender based on his film’s box office and critics’ performance. Squid, Crash and Good Night are all as close to locks as you can get. That leaves Akiva Goldsman’s script for Cinderella Man. It could also get knocked out and replaced with Virgin, or maybe even a surprise nod for Hustle & Flow. Syriana’s bump to Original, despite a WGA berth as Adapted, could lead to its omission. If people realize it’s in the Original category, it could easily knock Match Point or Cinderella Man out.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain – Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana< (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-10/9) — Strong —
Capote – Dan Futterman (c-12/18, n-12/18) — Strong —
The Constant Gardener – Jeffrey Caine (c-7/3, n-1/2) — Average —
Munich – Tony Kushner, Eric Roth (c-11/6, n-1/30) — Average —
Walk the Line – Gill Dennis, James Mangold (c-12/28, n-1/2) — Average —
Memoirs of a Geisha – Akiva Goldsman (c-7/3) — Average —
King Kong – Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens (c-7/3) — Average —
A History of Violence – Josh Olson (c-7/3) — Average —
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (c-10/28) — Average —
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe – Ann Peacock, Andrew Adamson, Christopher Markus, Stephen McFeely (c-7/3) — Weak —
Pride and Prejudice (c-12/14) — Weak —
Proof – David Auburn, Rebecca Miller (c-7/3) — Weak —
Rumor Has It – Ted Griffin (c-7/3) — Weak —

My Thoughts:
Outside of Walk the line and Capote, this category could be called the Social Relevance award. Brokeback, Gardener and Munich are all very political and all likely nominees. Only Brokeback and Capote have a lock. Constant and Munich will likely make it in BECAUSE of their politics, not in spite of them. That leaves Walk the Line as the weakest link. Walk the Line will likely make the cut if the directors decide not to pick Mangold as a best director choice. This is the next best place to recognize him. Plus, it’s the only film in contention with a massive box office, and usually there’s at least one of those nominated. Watch out for the skillful adaptation of King Kong as a possible nominee. Also in contention are A History of Violence and Memoirs of a Geisha.

Best Original Song

Transamerica – Travelin Thru (c-11/17, n-12/14, o-12/14)
Crash – In the Deep (c-11/17, n-1/29)
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy – So Long and Thanks for All the Fish (c-12/15, n-12/15)
Hustle & Flow – Hustle & Flow (It Ain’t Over) (c-11/17, n-12/14)
The Producers – There’s Nothing Like a Show on Broadway (c-11/17, n-12/14)
Angels with Angels – Angels Talk (c-12/15)
Because of Winn-Dixie – Butterfly (c-12/15)
Because of Winn-Dixie – I’ve Gotta See You Smile (c-12/15)
Bee Season – I’ll Be Near You (c-12/15)
Blues by the Beach – My Brother, My People (c-12/15)
Chicken Little – One Little Slip (c-12/15)
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe – Can’t Take It In (c-12/15)
The Constant Gardener – Dicholo (c-12/15)
Corpse Bride – Remains of the Day (c-12/15)
Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story – Dreamer (c-12/15)
Elizabethtown – Same in Any Language (c-12/15)
End of the Spear – Along the River (c-12/15)
Finding Home – Finding Home (c-12/15)
Freezerburn – Closer Every Day (c-12/15)
Get Rich or Die Tryin’ – I’ll Whip Ya Head Boy (c-12/15)
Green Street Hooligans – One Blood (c-12/15)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – Do the Hippogriff (c-12/15)
Hoodwinked – Great Big World (c-12/15)
Hustle & Flow – It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp (c-12/15)
Ice Princess – Reachin’ for Heaven (c-12/15)
Mad Hot Ballroom – Mad Hot Ballroom (c-12/15)
Mirrormask – If I Apologize (c-12/15)
My Date with Drew – (c-I’d Have It All) If I Had Drew (c-12/15)
Palindromes – Finding Home (c-12/15)
Palindromes – Nobody Jesus But You (c-12/15)
Palindromes – Fight for the Children (c-12/15)
Palindromes – This Is the Way (c-12/15)
Pooh’s Heffalump Movie – Shoulder to Shoulder (c-12/15)
Racing Stripes – It Ain’t Over Yet (c-12/15)
Racing Stripes – Taking the Inside Rail (c-12/15)
Robots – Shine (c-12/15)
Robots – Tell Me What You Already Did (c-12/15)
Rumor Has It – Face of Faith (c-12/15)
Sarah Silverman: Jesus Is Magic – You’re Gonna Die Soon (c-12/15)
Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants – These Days (c-12/15)
The Theory of Everything – Have a Little Faith (c-12/15)
Thumbsucker – Move Away and Shine (c-12/15)
The Upside of Anger – One Safe Place (c-12/15)

These are the Official Selections for the Original Song Category.

Best Original Score

Brokeback Mountain – Gustavo Santaolalla (c-7/3, n-11/17, o-1/29)
Cinderella Man – Thomas Newman (c-7/3, n-1/30)
King Kong – James Newton Howard (c-7/3, n-11/17)
Memoirs of a Geisha – John Williams (c-7/3, n-12/14)
Munich – John Williams (c-7/3, n-7/3)
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe – Harry Gregson-Williams (c-7/3)
The Constant Gardener – TBD (c-12/14)
Good Night, and Good Luck – TBD (c-7/3)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – Patrick Doyle (c-7/3)
Jarhead – Thomas Newman (c-7/3)
Kingdom of Heaven – TBD (c-12/14)
The New World – James Horner (c-7/3)
Proof – Stephen Warbeck (c-7/3)
Syriana – TBD (c-12/14)
White Countess – Richard Robbins (c-7/3)

Best Editing

Brokeback Mountain – Geraldine Peroni, Dylan Tichenor (c-7/3, n-11/17, o-12/14)
The Constant Gardener – Claire Simpson (c-7/3, n-1/29)
Good Night, and Good Luck – Stephen Mirrione (c-7/3, n-11/17)
Munich – Michael Kahn (c-7/3, n-7/3)
Walk the Line – Michael McCusker (c-11/17, n-12/9)
Capote (c-1/9)
Cinderella Man – Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill (c-7/3)
Crash (c-1/29)
A History of Violence – Ronald Sanders (c-7/3)
King Kong – Jamie Selkirk (c-7/3)
Memoirs of a Geisha – Pietro Scalia (c-7/3)
The New World – Richard Chew, Hank Corwin, Saar Klein (c-7/3)
Syriana – Tim Squyres (c-11/17)
The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada – Roberto Silvi (c-7/3)
White Countess – John David Allen (c-7/3)

Best Cinematography

Brokeback Mountain – Rodrigo Prieto (c-7/3, n-10/9, o-1/29)
2046 (c-12/14, n-1/29)
Good Night, and Good Luck – Robert Elswit (c-7/3, n-11/17)
King Kong – Andrew Lesnie (c-7/3, n-1/2)
Memoirs of a Geisha – Dion Beebe (c-7/3, n-7/3)
Capote (c-12/14)
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe – Donald McAlpine (c-7/3)
Cinderella Man – Salvatore Totino (c-7/3)
The Constant Gardener (c-12/14)
March of the Penguins (c-12/14)
Munich – Janusz Kaminski (c-7/3)
The New World – Emmanuel Lubezki (7/3)
The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada – Chris Menges (c-7/3)
White Countess – Christopher Doyle, Tony Pierce-Roberts (c-7/3)

Best Art Direction

Memoirs of a Geisha – John Myhre, Gretchen Rau (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-1/29)
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory – Alex McDowell, Peter Young (c-7/3, n-1/29)
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe – Roger Ford, Kerrie Brown (c-7/3, n-7/3)
Good Night, and Good Luck – James D. Bissell (c-7/3, n-10/9)
King Kong – Grant Major, Dan Hennah (c-7/3, n-11/17)
Batman Begins (c-1/29)
Brokeback Mountain – Judy Becker (c-7/3)
Cinderella Man – Wynn Thomas, Gordon Sim (c-7/3)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – Stuart Craig (c-7/3)
The Libertine – Ben van Os, Robert Wischhusen-Hayes (c-11/17)
Munich (c-7/3)
The New World – Jack Fisk, Jim Erickson (c-7/3)
Sin City – Jeanette Scott, David Hack (c-7/3)
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith – Gavin Bocquet, Richard Roberts (c-7/3)
Walk the Line – David J. Bomba, Carla Curry (c-11/17)
White Countess – Andrew Sanders (c-7/3)

Best Costume Design

Memoirs of a Geisha – Colleen Atwood (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-7/3)
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe – Isis Mussenden (c-7/3, n-1/2)
Good Night, and Good Luck (c-7/3, n-1/29)
King Kong – Terry Ryan (c-7/3, n-11/17)
Pride and Prejudice (c-12/14, n-12/14)
Brokeback Mountain – Marit Allen (c-7/3)
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory – Gabriella Pescucci (c-7/3)
Cinderella Man – Daniel Orlandi (c-7/3)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – Jany Temime (c-7/3)
The Libertine (c-11/17)
Munich (c-7/3)
The New World – Jacqueline West (c-7/3)
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith – Trisha Biggar (c-7/3)
Walk the Line – Arianne Phillips (c-11/17)
White Countess (c-7/3)

Best Makeup

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (c-7/3, n-7/3, o-7/3)
The New World (c-1/10, n-1/10)
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (c-7/3, n-12/14)
Cinderella Man (c-1/10)
A History of Violence (c-1/10)
The Libertine (c-1/10)
Mrs. Henderson Presents (c-1/10)