Oscar Night approaches. Tomorrow evening, the Academy of Motion PictureArts and Sciences will be giving out its 78th annual awards. With aone-hour pre-show, the Oscar ceremony will likely be one of the leastwatched since “The English Patient” won Best Picture in the spring of1997.
Many prognosticators would point to this year’s death of suspense. Idon’t think I’ll mind much since the frontrunners are, in general, mypersonal favorites. However, surprises could still emerge in a numberof races. Over the past two days, we’ve taken a look at many of theminor races. Some with suitable impact on the final awards, somewithout.
The Top six categories are the most prestigious and, with the exceptionof the supporting categories, will all be given out towards the end ofthe evening. We’ll start the two supporting races and what theirwinners or losers could mean for the evening’s later awards and then goover the rest in the typical order of presentation.
Supporting Actress
This is the category that beauty won. History show the Academy has a penchant of honoring either beautiful ingenues with promising careers or long-time legends with nary an Oscar to their name.
There are no long-ignored veterans in this category, so we must look at the past winners and nominees. Past winner Frances McDormand has the least chance of winning “North Country” wasn’t much of a success and with an Oscar under her belt, it’s unlikely the Academy would ignore the other un-rewarded talents in this category.
If Catherine Keener wins for “Capote”, it wouldn’t be surprising, since she’s the only other candidate with a previous nomination; however, it would point to an upswing in support for the film, which might make its victory at the end of the night a still-outside possibility.
Amy Adams’ support has waned significantly since early critics’ awards were given out. She didn’t sweep by any means and her tiny film “Junebug” isn’t likely to see much recognition. Adams isn’t out but without a Screen Actors Guild award to her name, he chances look very slim.
This leaves the race between two actresses. “Brokeback Mountain” has one of its three acting nominations in this category. Michelle Williams gives a quiet performance, which may not be flashy enough to win her Oscar glory but a swell of attention to “Brokeback” could give her the victory for having to deal emotionally with her husband’s infidelities.
Rachel Weisz, however, has the SAG award for “The Constant Gardener”. She’s the torch bearer for a film that is close to Hollywood’s political heart. It also helps that she shows that she’s not just a pretty face but she can also act. She also is the epitome of young, beautiful Hollywood, making her the most likely to triumph on Sunday’s telecast.
If Williams pulls an upset, however, a “Brokeback” Best Picture win becomes incredibly solid.
Supporting Actor
When it comes to suspense, Best Supporting Actor should provide it. This is the only category in the Top six that has the potential to yield an incredibly surprising winner. William Hurt is the only also-ran in this derby, leaving it a toss up whether which of the others will win.
George Clooney won the SAG award for putting on weight in “Syriana”. The Academy loves actors that get into their parts. He’s also got three other nominations this year and less likelihood of winning in either of those categories. This would be the Academy’s chance to Clooney’s body of work this year.
Paul Giamatti didn’t make the cut last year for “Sideways”, which accounts for his nomination here. Some may still feel it should have even won last year and this is the perfect Oscar-bait vehicle for such a victory. However, many will see a chance to recognize other nominees for their work, leaving Giamatti as the most likely bridesmaid after Hurt.
What could be the precursor for the night’s big prize will be the battle between “Crash’s” Matt Dillon and “Brokeback Mountain’s” Jake Gyllenhaal. Dillon has the respect of the industry but he doesn’t have a previous nomination. Besides, this isn’t the type of role that has historically won in this category.
Gyllenhaal, on the other hand, hasn’t yet earned the respect usually afforded to a supporting actor winner. He is, however, the best shot for “Brokeback” to take home an acting award. What supports a potential upset of Gyllenhaal over Clooney is the fact that the British Academy crowned Gyllenhaal Best Supporting Actor, which may be a sign of things to come.
Actress
The race for Best Actress comes down to two contenders this year and one is so obviously in the lead that, next to Best Actor, this is one of the most predictable categories for this year’s Oscars.
Charlize Theron already has an Oscar and won’t likely repeat for “North Country”. Keira Knightley in “Pride & Prejudice” is far too young to be winning this award when Kate Winslet who gave a very similar performance in “Sense and Sensibility” is Oscar-less. Judi Dench also possesses an Academy Award, and “Mrs. Henderson Presents” is too light for Academy tastes.
Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman are the Top contenders for this award. While Huffman has the half-hearted campaigning of Harvey Weinstein behind her, she doesn’t have a lot else going for her. Sure past winners in this category in recent years have been for tiny movies but Witherspoon has the youth factor that has been more frequently linked to winners in this category than independent distribution.
It’s still possible that even with toned-down campaigning, Weinstein could push enough voters into selecting Huffman for “Transamerica” over her “Walk the Line” competition.
In the end, this will likely be as foregone a conclusion as the SAG award. Witherspoon has more than a dozen precursor awards to support her win even if her costar Joaquin Phoenix loses.
Actor
The Most Predictable Category award this year goes to Best Actor. With Philip Seymour Hoffman holding onto nearly two dozen precursor awards for “Capote”, there is likely no way that he won’t win the Oscar.
Or is there?
His appearances at other awards shows have been met with derision of his surly attitude and inappropriate comments. Some also see the upcoming “Infamous” as a potential chance to award a more impressive capture of the charismatic Truman Capote. Either way, three actors could easily take the podium on Oscar night.
Heath Ledger appears to be the most likely spoiler. His performance in “Brokeback Mountain” has been compared to many of the great cowboy performances from the heyday of westerns. Ledger also risked his career to take on a role that many other actors had turned down. This displays how much of a team player he can be, thus becoming more appealing to voters.
The next most likely victor is David Strathairn. He hasn’t done any campaigning, leaving his work to stand for itself. If he wins, it will be on his long career in Hollywood and a sign that Oscar voters are tired of campaigns that plaster the contenders on every surface on which it’s not illegal to do so. This would also point to a potential “Good Night, and Good Luck” upset for the Best Picture category.
Joaquin Phoenix was once the lead contender for this award and even after capturing the vulnerable side of Johnny Cash in “Walk the Line”, he’s begun to lose his luster. The first sign was when Hoffman and Ledger began taking the lion’s share of precursor awards. The second sign was when “Line” was ignored in the Best Picture derby. While he’s still a contender thanks to the desire of some members to honor his Cash alongside Witherspoon’s June Carter, he’s lost enough momentum to rank fourth in most likely to win.
The least likely winner is Terrence Howard for a breakthrough year. Many will consider his nomination a reward for all of his work this past year while others may want to shake the category up. Either way, Howard remains in a distant fifth in this year’s contest.
Director
No one can dispute the power of the Directors Guild of America to pick a winner in this category. Since its first award in 1948, the guild has only failed to predict the winner of the Academy Awards eight times. No other precursor has more clout. So accurate is its predicting capacity that only 12 of those years have the winner not also predicted the Best Picture selection.
This is great news for Ang Lee, who remains the only two-time DGA winner not to possess an Academy Award. Even in the years when Oscar disagreed, the DGA winner won their first Oscar for their second DGA award.
This is not to discount Lee’s masterful achievement “Brokeback Mountain”. The film is certainly a tight, thought-provoking piece and should be enough to yield an Oscar for him.
Conventional wisdom, however, shows that the Academy loves actors-turned-directors. This bodes well for George Clooney who seems the only nominee capable of unseating Lee. If Clooney wins either Best Original Screenplay or Supporting Actor, he will be out of contention for this award. If he wins both of those categories, he may just sweep and take this prize leaving “Good Night, and Good Luck.” as a very likely winner in the Best Picture race.
Paul Haggis and Steven Spielberg will each have supporters. Haggis’ “Crash” needs this award to guarantee the best picture prize. If not, then it could still win but its chances shrink. Spielberg, on the other hand, already has two Oscars. However, the Academy does love him and it wouldn’t be entirely shocking, though a bit surprising, if he were to win this award.
The only nominee whose chances are virtually nil is “Capote” helmer Bennet Miller. Miller’s reward is his nomination. The San Diego film critics were the only ones to recognize his directorial achievement and they are hardly the kind of group to make the Academy bow down and listen. However, if support for “Capote” in Best Picture has increased dramatically, then he could be carried along to a trophy. Nothing would be more improbable.
Picture
What could be the most predictable Oscar ceremony since the Titanic sweep in 1998 could be complicated by a surge of support for any one of the films nominated.
The least likely to triumph on Sunday is “Capote”. It was lucky enough to be nominated but with only the National Society of Film Critics giving the film its Top prize, prospects are not good for the film to win.
“Munich” may also be lucky enough receiving the nomination. The Academy must love Spielberg and the subject matter greatly to give it the only studio nomination over the more financially successful “Walk the Line”. While I don’t believe support is high enough for it to win, “Munich” could benefit from a vote split between the Top three contenders.
Oscar history has not been kind to films about the television or motion picture industries. “Good Night, and Good Luck” doesn’t have high hopes of winning but if any film had a shot of making precedent, Clooney’s film would be it.
The race is more likely to come down to two films that have large voting blocs of support. The question is which group has more votes. There are the Angelinos who will find the race tensions in “Crash” more appealing than the gay love story of “Brokeback Mountain”. Then again, the Academy has shown its mettle in honoring controversial topics like “Million Dollar Baby” last year.
Hollywood can’t resist making a statement and “Brokeback” certainly fits that category. Not to mention the fact that the film is the most honored film of the year, garnering more than a dozen precursors for Best Picture.
“Crash” only has a few trophies and films about the Los Angeles area haven’t had any luck at the Oscars in the past. However, if there’s a film to upset “Brokeback” on Sunday, it will be “Crash”.
By the end of the night, we should hopefully have enough clues to pick out the final winner but anything could happen to change things. Regardless of who wins, there will be plenty of debate around the Internet and in the news about the winners and the controversy of any potential winners will be enough to sustain all of for days to come.
-Wesley Lovell (March 4, 2006)
