In such a contentious year where there isn’t a hands-down frontrunner,categories that one wouldn’t normally look to for predicting insighthave become more crucial to films hoping to take home Oscar’s Top prize. Today, we’ll take a look at the second tier categories. Thesecategories rarely impact the final prize but can give great insight asthe show progresses as to where the night will go.
The least impacting categories, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Filmand Documentary Feature have no impact this year, or in any year, onthe final prize. Let’s take a look at these first before we head intothe most impacting categories of screenwriting and music.
Documentary Feature
The documentary categories have always been a place for human-interest stories to prevail. In recent years, however, the bent has switched to controversial political films. This is both good and bad news for this year’s contenders.
While none of the films are incredibly controversial, “Enron: TheSmartest Guy in the Room” is the closest to carrying that designation,namely because of its coverage of the scandal that brought down one ofthe most corrupt corporations in U.S. history. Though the trial isstill going strong, the corruption is far from prevalent in currentnews repots, weakening its potential. In addition, there are two otherfilms that pose stiff and likely more powerful competition.
“Murderball” is the story of quadriplegics who play full-contact rugbyin souped-up wheelchairs. It’s not your typical “let’s feel sorry forthe subjects” type documentary but it does feature plenty of obstaclesthat the subjects have to overcome. This makes it the kind of film thatOscar voters can recognize and feel good about themselves.
The film to beat, however, is “March of the Penguins”. Documenting themating season of the emperor penguin in Antarctica, Academy voterswon’t be able to resist the human-like trials of these black-and-whitemarvels. It’s been a long time since a wildlife documentary has wonthis category, but look for this to take Oscar glory.
The other two contenders really don’t seem to have much hope. “Darwin’sNightmare” is a film about how a predator introduced into a non-nativeenvironment can affect both the ecosystem and those who live off ofthat ecosystem. It’s certainly got the chops to compete with the otherthree films but ultimately it’s likely to fail against the morefeel-good “Penguins”.
“Street Fight”, which covers a mayoral race in New Jersey, is theabsolute least likely to win. Sure it’s about politics, which theAcademy loves but it really isn’t a tour-de-force film that begs to beobserved. This film is perhaps too tightly connected to politics andnot subtle enough to send a message to the world community.
The category seems to be a competition between the most honored ofthese documentaries, “Murderball”, “Enron” and “Penguins”. With theWerner Herzog documentary “Grizzly Man” out of the competition,”Penguins” is the most recognized film and the second most successfuldocumentary in history. This makes it the perfect film for the Academyto recognize this year (even after the members who vote in thiscategory are forced to watch all five features).
Animated Feature
Unless the Academy decides to honor someone new, this category is allbut decided. “Wallace & Gromit” has won more than a dozen awardsfor Best Animated Feature and there’s no reason to expect it won’t winhere.
Creator Nick Park has received three out of four Academy Awards for hiswork with sTop -motion animation. Two of those awards were for shortfilms starring the title characters Wallace and Gromit. The Academyobviously loves him and his work and the film is another example of theinnovation of animation.
The only film to possibly stand in “Gromit’s” way is Tim Burton’s “TheCorpse Bride”. Since the award was created after his landmark work with”Nightmare Before Christmas”, the Academy may feel like they arehonor-bound to recognize this clearly inferior work.
Hayao Miyazaki has already received an Oscar for his work on “SpiritedAway” which means they won’t be likely to recognize him again for”Howl’s Moving Castle”. This gives “Wallace” the absolute edge in thisnon-computer-generated field of competitors.
Foreign Language Film
The one category that has more surprises than any other is the ForeignLanguage Film category where the perceived favorite can be upset bysentimentality. This year’s contenders are “Tsotsi” from South Africaabout a hood decides to take responsibility for the child of one of hisdead victims, France’s “Joyeux Noel” about soldiers on both side ofWorld War I who put down their arms and share camaraderie during theChristmas holiday, the controversial “Paradise Now” about suicidebombers from Palestine, the German “Sophie Scholl-The Final Days”concerning two resistance fighters in Nazi Germany, and Italy’s “LaBestia Nel Cuore” about a young woman who begins having nightmaresabout her past.
“Paradise Now” would have been the film of choice for the Academybecause of the difficult and political subject matter but some JewishAcademy members may be reticent to recognize a film that discusses anyvalidity to the violence perpetrated by the Palestinians against theIsraelis.
“Joyeux Noel” seems like the feel-good kind of film the Academy lovesto recognize but doesn’t have the modern relevance that a film like”Tsotsi” has.
“La Bestia Nel Cuore” isn’t remotely the kind of film the Oscars liketo recognize, especially since all of the members who vote in thecategory must see all the films. All four of the other films featuremore relevant topics and thus seem much more likely contenders.
“Sophie Scholl-The Final Days” could very well spoil “Tsotsi’s” hope.Since it’s about those who fight against the Nazi’s who exterminatedJews in World War II, the Academy may fall head over heels for thefilm. They have a penchant for Holocaust dramas but since this filmdoesn’t focus as much on the Jewish plight as it does resistancefighters, it may not be enough for that vociferous block of Academymembers.
Original Screenplay
This is one of the major fortune telling categories for the BestPicture prize. “Crash” leads the contenders in the rather tightcategory of Original Screenplay. Also up are fellow Best Pic nominee”Goo Night, and Good Luck.”, the anti-oil industry “Syriana”, WoodyAllen’s return to masterful filmmaking “Match Point” and the coming ofage in the face of divorce comedy “The Squid and the Whale”.
Had “Crash” not emerged as such a favorite in the past few months, wewould have handed this category to “Good Night” but add “Squid” and”Syriana” as competitors and you have a tough race. Allen’s nominationis his recognition, so no one will need to worry about “Match Point”winning.
“Squid and the Whale” picked up a lot of critics’ awards before beingnominated, which, in past years, may have signaled an impendingvictory. Not so this year. “Syriana” will appeal to the liberal bloc ofthe Academy but they’ll be split with honoring George Clooney’s “GoodNight” which is “Crash’s” biggest competition.
If it’s the Best Picture contender everyone claims it to be, “Crash”should take this prize easily, especially after its win at the WritersGuild of America awards. If any film other than “Crash” wins here, itwill signal the end of the line for “Crash’s” chance at winning the Top prize. If “Good Night” is the winner, we may have a tighter racebetween “Brokeback Mountain” and “Good Night”.
Adapted Screenplay
To say Adapted Screenplay is an important category for “BrokebackMountain” to win is an understatement. A failure to win this categorywould signal a likely defeat in the Best Picture category. However,with the competition and precursor recognition, there is little chanceof this award not going to the unconventional romance.
Fellow Best Pic nominees “Munich” and “Capote” hold the best chance ofovertaking the frontrunner. “Capote” would have to win this award tocompete as a Best Picture finalist. The same can be said of “Munich”.”Capote” has a number of awards for screenwriting in the bag but”Brokeback” has far more under its belt.
“Munich”, however, co-written by “Angels in America” scribe TonyKushner is one of Steven Spielberg’s tightest scripts. Because it’slike anything else Spielberg has ever put to the screen, it could be anOscar to Kushner, especially since he couldn’t be recognized for”Angels” since it was a television miniseries.
“The Constant Gardener” and “A History of Violence” round out thecategory but their overall lack of support at the Oscars point to theirrelative obscurity in winning this award.
“Brokeback Mountain” however, should have no problems winning thisprize. It’s an incredibly well adapted screenplay by one of history’smost celebrated writers of the western genre. By the fact that he wasable to craft such a poignant love story between two classic cowboyarchetypes means the Academy can’t help but credit Larry McMurtry forhis effort alongside his co-writer Diana Ossana.
Original Song
For only the second time in the history of the Academy Awards, the BestOriginal Song category features only three nominees. Each one has itssupporters and any one could truly win but the most likely winner isthe singer-songwriter who has a previous Oscar loss on record.
“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from “Hustle & Flow” is this year’s”Blame Canada”. It’s a controversial choice. People seem to love thefilm as they did “South Park”, but its chances of winning over the morestoic Academy members are unlikely.
The contest is really between “Crash” and “Transamerica”. If “Crash”wins this prize for the ballad “In the Deep”, it will give rise toanticipation of a “Crash” victory at the end of the night. However, if”Travelin’ Thru” wins the final race will not be impacted.
Dolly Parton, who wrote the song “Travelin’ Thru”, is the only previousnominee, earning her first nod for the long-memorable “9 to 5” from thefilm of the same name. Many in the Academy may feel that the moreforgettable “Fame” shouldn’t have won over the likes of “9 to 5” or “Onthe Road Again” and give Parton the prize. Plus, it would be a neathistorical fact for her to win 25 years after her first nomination.
Original Score
While “Crash” and “Brokeback Mountain” only compete in three categoriestogether, this is another category where an outcome could spell victoryor defeat at the end of the night.
“Brokeback” would have been considered the favorite for this award hadJohn Williams not contributed two strong scores to the race. “Munich”doesn’t hold much promise of a victory but “Memoirs of a Geisha” is acompetitor all the way. The Golden Globes tend to predict the film thatwon’t win this award, so this is bad new for “Brokeback” making itslead tenuous at best. If “Geisha” wins, it may be a sign of badfortunes for “Brokeback”
The other competitors are “Pride & Prejudice” and “The ConstantGardener”. Neither film looks like much of a competitor, so the racewon’t end with either film in the Top spot unless some major upsets arecoming up later in the evening.
Portents could surface throughout the night with some of these racesposing a quandary for prognosticators. When we look at the Top sixawards tomorrow, we’ll have a better understanding of where thecompetition for Best Picture will turn around if at all.
-Wesley Lovell (March 3, 2006)
