As the Academy Awards approach, every fan and armchair critic will betrying to predict the winners of the most coveted statuette in theworld. To help demystify the races, over the next few days, I will betaking a look at all of the feature-length races.
The first group of categories to tackle is the Tech Awards. These arecategories that don’t typically carry prestige with average filmgoers(except for the Visual Effects category). Many of these eightcategories don’t affect the Best Picture results, but they deserve noless attention.
Cinematography
The cinematography award has historically gone to huge, outdoor epics.Only two nominees this year take place in large part in the wilderness.”Brokeback Mountain” and “The New World” take part largely outdoors andare joined by the black-and-white “Good Night, and Good Luck”, thehugely atmospheric “Batman Begins” and the glorious lighting feats”Memoirs of a Geisha”.
This is probably one of the tightest races this year. Four films seemto be in contention while the fifth, “Batman”, could benefit from avote split. “Memoirs” won the American Society of Cinematographersaward. This is small consolation considering in the last ten years,only four films have translated that award into a win for BestCinematography. Only one of those times was in the last four years.
Oscar has typically gone for the biggest film in the line up, whichcould mean great things for “The New World”. However, Terrence Malickdidn’t win with the far more bankable John Toll for his last film “TheThin Red Line”. And with the languid pace and the last-minute editingMalick did on the film, it’s not likely that either enough voters sawthe film or even liked it well enough to give it the prize.
That leaves “Brokeback” and “Good Night”. Both films are Best Picturenominees. This has helped all but four of the last twenty winners inthis category. “Good Night” has its own style as a hindrance.”Schindler’s List” is the only black-and-white film to win thiscategory since the category was separated into black-and-white andcolor components in 1966.
“Brokeback” has all of the classic qualities of cinematography winners.It takes place in large part outdoors, which helped non-Best Picturenominees “Legends of the Fall” and “A River Runs Through It” walk awaywith the trophy. On Top of being the Top contender for the Top race,”Brokeback” would seem insurmountable.
Then again, you still have “Memoirs” which poses a serious threat to”Brokeback” wins in two categories, this and Best Original Score.”Memoirs” has strong support considering it was nominated for sixOscars, more than any other film that wasn’t also Best Picturenominated. If there’s a film to knock “Brokeback” from its perch, thisis the category to watch. If “Brokeback” loses this award, its grip onBest Picture becomes tenuous.
Makeup
One of only three feature-length categories that are consistentlyfilled with three nominees, the Best Makeup award is one of the mostcreative categories, if not one of the least visible. This year, thenominations include “The Chronicles of Narnia”, “Star Wars: EpisodeIII” and “Cinderella Man”.
Normally, this category goes to the film with the most makeup, notnecessarily the best (otherwise “Sin City”, despite its digitaltouch-ups, would be a nominee and the hands-down winner). Two films areladen with makeup effects. “Chronicles” and “Star Wars” seem to have astranglehold on the competition leaving “Cinderella Man” as thebridesmaid.
There is precedent for a film with predominantly prosthetic work totake this award. “Frida” won for giving Salma Hayek a unibrow, but itscompetition was “The Time Machine”, a critically maligned film. “TopsyTurvy” and “Elizabeth” took the trophy for mostly hairstyling work and”Braveheart” and “Ed Wood” took the prize for overwhelming amounts offacial makeup.
However, “Cinderella” is nominated for making Russell Crowe look likehe was sufficiently beaten. Not even the beloved “Raging Bull” or lastyear’s champ “Million Dollar Baby” managed nominations better yetOscars. This makes “Cinderella” just as unlikely.
“Chronicles” and “Star Wars” have made nearly the same amount of moneyat the box office but no “Star Wars” film has ever been nominated inthis category. This could be an award to the history of the franchise,or, like “Lord of the Rings”, this could be an award to “Chronicles”for creating a believable world that had never been seen before, unlikethe “Episode III”.
Editing
No category has been more linked to Best Picture winners outside of thewriting and directing categories. Historically, a film must benominated in this category to win the Top prize. This year, however,the most likely winner of the Top prize isn’t even nominated, whichmakes this race less impacting unless “Brokeback’s” primarycompetition, “Crash”, happens to win, which is seemingly like anincreasingly likely conclusion.
Along with “Crash” the nominees include fellow Best Picture nominee”Munich”, boxing drama “Cinderella Man”, musical biopic “Walk the Line”and the anti-pharmaceutical “The Constant Gardener”. Anyone could saythis is an eclectic blend of films but it’s not unusual for thiscategory. Last year, we had another boxing drama, another musicalbiopic, a thriller, a fantasy film and a historical epic.
The historical epic (“The Aviator”) won last year which gives “Munich”a boost. However, “The Aviator” was “Million Dollar Baby’s” primarycompetition last year, and “Munich” doesn’t seem to be much in therace. “Walk the Line” isn’t the type of film to win here and Sound isits best opportunity for a prize this year.
That leaves a good race between “Cinderella”, “Crash” and “Gardener”.”Cinderella” is the weakest link. “Rocky” and “Raging Bull” aside,boxing dramas get nominations here but don’t typically win. “Crash”blends dozens of stories together into a seamless mélange of melodrama.This helped “Traffic” win and is likely going to result in a victoryfor editor Hughes Winborne. On Top of that, “Crash” took home theAmerican Cinema Editors award, which has consistently resulted in oneof its winners taking the award for Cinematography.
The spoiler here is “The Constant Gardener”. Many will consider thefilm shafted from a Best Picture or Best Director nomination. FernandoMeirelles’ last film “City of God” was also a nominee, which proves theAcademy likes his work but “Crash” may be too strong to be dethroned.However, if there’s a race to watch to see if “Crash” has the momentumto steal Best Picture from “Brokeback”, a loss here would be deadly.
Art Direction
Period films highlight the Art Direction/Set Decoration category.”Memoirs of a Geisha” is set in World War II era Japan, “Good Night,and Good Luck” set during the blacklisting period of United Stateshistory, “King Kong” takes place in 1920s New York City, “Pride & Prejudice” occurs in late-18th Century England, and “Harry Potter andthe Goblet of Fire” set in the fantasy world of modern witchcraft andwizardry.
A strong case can be made for any one of these films to win. “Pride”and “Kong” continue a long tradition of costume dramas in the race,”Memoirs” features the beautiful sculpted landscapes of Kyoto, “GoodNight” crafts a beautiful world of black-and-white, and “Harry Potter”is the only film nominated to create a completely original environmentfor its characters.
Tradition shows that the winner of this category will likely also winBest Costume Design. In the last 25 contests, only nine films split thecategories. This only works in the favor of “Memoirs” and “Pride”.”Memoirs” is the kind of film that is rarely seen in this derby andwould be more likely to win than the been-there-done-that “Pride”.However, there could be a good case for a split this year.
“King Kong” was surprisingly omitted from the Costume Design race butin its recreation of the 1920s, it’s a good bet the film will be ableto unseat “Memoirs”. However, there’s another potential spoiler in”Goblet of Fire”. “Goblet” managed to win the British Academy’sequivalent of the art direction award. This is good news for the fourthinstallment but in the end, this will likely be a repeat of previousyears’ habit of hand-in-hand awards.
Costume Design
Speaking of Costume Design, this category holds the best bet for Oscarglory for “Memoirs of a Geisha”. Its fellow competitors are “Pride & Prejudice”, “Mrs. Henderson Presents”, “Charlie and the ChocolateFactory” and “Walk the Line”. The competition is significantly weakerhere than in many other categories.
“Walk the Line” is relatively modern in its design. There’s very littlethat’s flashy or over the Top , which are hallmarks of this category.”Charlie” is better known for its luscious sets than its costuming andthus becomes the only other guaranteed also-ran.
“Mrs. Henderson” and “Prejudice” are both period costume films and willcompete for the same votes. This is great news for “Memoirs” as it hasa style of costuming that hasn’t been recognized by the Academy in avery long time. On Top of that, the Geisha in “Memoirs” wear adifferent kimono each day making the frequency and complexity ofchanges integral to the film.
Visual Effects
This contest is certainly interesting, if not a foregone conclusion.”King Kong” uses the same visual effects techniques that carried the”Lord of the Rings” trilogy to an undefeated record in this category.WETA has emerged as the film industry’s best visual effects productionhouse and “Kong” will likely capitalize on that success.
Not to be outdone, WETA features another film in the final list, onewhich may appeal to Oscar voters’ taste for excess. “The Chronicles ofNarnia” uses thousands of visual effects shots to create the fantasyworld of J.R.R. Tolkien’s pal C.S. Lewis. “Chronicles” is the weakestof the nominees and may succumb to the skillful blend of visual effectscharacters with real human characters in Peter Jackson’s “Kong”.
“War of the Worlds” remains the only film to pose a threat to “Kong’s”dominance. It’s the only Industrial Light and Magic entry this year andcould reap the benefit of strong support for Spielberg in a year where”Worlds” and “Munich” have done so well in the nominations”. However,in the end, the victor will be the one with the best and biggesteffects and that trophy will go to “Kong.”
Sound Editing
This category rarely results in a revelatory selection and never pointsto higher awards for its winners. When aligned, the Sound Editingcategory can be part of the major tech triumvirate along with SoundMixing and Visual Effects. A number of films have won all three butthis isn’t likely to be one of those years.
Two of nominees are also contenders in the other two categories butit’s unlikely that either will take the Sound Mixing award, thus makingit difficult to gauge which of the three films will win. “King Kong”appears the most likely to triumph but “War of the Worlds” could bepoised for an upset after its support with both of the sound guilds(Motion Picture Sound Editors and Cinema Audio Society). “Memoirs of aGeisha” seems more like a runner-up than a real contender but if”Worlds” and “Kong” split enough votes, “Geisha” could be crownedEmpress.
Sound Mixing
This category typically goes to the biggest effects-driven film, amusic-driven film or a popular Best Picture winner. Since there are noBest Picture nominees in Sound Mixing this year, it looks like it’ll bea battle between effects and music.
Last year, biopic “Ray” took this trophy and it appears that “Walk theLine” is the favorite this year. “Memoirs of a Geisha” doesn’t standmuch of a chance since it’s neither notably visual effects heavy nornot at all a musical. That leaves the big films “King Kong”,”Chronicles of Narnia” and “War of the Worlds”.
If “Worlds” or Kong” were prepared for a hat trick, I’d say they’d bebigger contenders. “Chronicles” doesn’t seem like to win any othercategory, so the Academy could feel obliged to honor it here, but thesame thing holds true for “Walk the Line” which isn’t a significantcontender anywhere other than Best Actress.
Considering that last year’s two blockbusters (“Spider-Man 2″ and”Incredibles”) failed to fend off “Ray”, it doesn’t appear that threesuch films would be able to hold off “Walk the Line”.
The tech categories are far less poised to point to an end-of-nightvictor than in previous years, so we must look to the second tiercategories feature the music and screenwriting categories. We’ll take alook at those and the Foreign Film and Documentary Feature categoriestomorrow.
-Wesley Lovell (March 2, 2006)
