77th Academy Awards (2004): Winner Predictions

AWARDS
6 2 – – – 1 – – – – – – – – –	The Aviator The Incredibles Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events Million Dollar Baby Ray Austism Is a World Birthday Boy Born Into Brothels The Chorus Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Finding Neverland Little Terrorist The Polar Express Sideways Spider-Man 2

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

• The Aviator (c-12/12) — Even —
• Million Dollar Baby — Even —
• Sideways -2:1- — 2:1 —
• Ray — 7:1 —
• Finding Neverland — 15:1 —

Best Animated Feature

• The Incredibles (c-6/24) — 1:3 —
• Shrek 2 — 3:1 —
• Shark Tale — 20:1 —

Best Director

• The Aviator – Martin Scorsese (c-6/24) — Even —
• Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood — Even —
• Sideways – Alexander Payne — 4:1 —
• Ray – Taylor Hackford — 10:1 —
• Vera Drake – Mike Leigh — 10:1 —

Best Actor

• Ray – Jamie Foxx (c-11/4) — 1:3 —
• Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood — 3:2 —
• The Aviator – Leonardo DiCaprio — 2:1 —
• Hotel Rwanda – Don Cheadle — 5:1 —
• Finding Neverland – Johnny Depp — 10:1 —

Best Actress

• Million Dollar Baby – Hilary Swank (c-2/6) — Even —
• Vera Drake – Imelda Staunton — 3:2 —
• Being Julia – Annette Bening — 2:1 —
• Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Kate Winslet — 3:1 —
• Maria Full of Grace – Catalina Sandino Moreno — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actor

• Million Dollar Baby – Morgan Freeman (c-2/6) — Even —
• Sideways – Thomas Haden Church — 3:2 —
• Closer – Clive Owen — 3:2 —
• The Aviator – Alan Alda — 5:1 —
• Collateral – Jamie Foxx — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actress

• The Aviator – Cate Blanchett (c-1/12) — Even —
• Sideways – Virginia Madsen — Even —
• Kinsey – Laura Linney — 3:2 —
• Hotel Rwanda – Sophie Okonedo — 3:1 —
• Closer – Natalie Portman — 5:1 —

Best Original Screenplay

• Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Charlie Kaufman (c-1/12) — Even —
• The Incredibles – Brad Bird — Even —
• The Aviator – John Logan — 3:2 —
• Hotel Rwanda – Keir Pearson, Terry George — 3:1 —
• Vera Drake – Mike Leigh — 7:1 —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Sideways – Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor (c-2/23) — Even —
• Million Dollar Baby – Paul Haggis — Even —
• The Motorcycle Diaries – Jose Rivera — 3:1 —
• Finding Neverland – David Magee — 5:1 —
• Before Sunset – Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Kim Krizan — 7:1 —

Best Original Song

• The Polar Express – Believe (c-1/25) — Even —
• The Phantom of the Opera – Learn to Be Lonely — 3:2 —
• Shrek 2 – Accidentally in Love — 3:2 —
• The Motorcycle Diaries – Al Otro Lado del Rio — 4:1 —
• The Chorus – Look To Your Path — 5:1 —

Best Original Score

• Finding Neverland – Jan A.P. Kaczmarek (c-1/25) — Even —
• Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – John Williams — 3:2 —
• Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events – Thomas Newman — 3:2 —
• The Passion of the Christ – John Debney — 5:2 —
• The Village – James Newton Howard — 7:1 —

Best Editing

• The Aviator (c-2/23) — Even —
• Million Dollar Baby — Even —
• Ray — 3:1 —
• Finding Neverland — 5:1 —
• Collateral — 7:1 —

Best Cinematography

• The Aviator (c-6/24) — Even —
• House of Flying Daggers — 3:2 —
• The Passion of the Christ — 2:1 —
• A Very Long Engagement — 5:1 —
• The Phantom of the Opera — 10:1 —

Best Art Direction

• Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (c-1/25) — Even —
• The Aviator — Even —
• The Phantom of the Opera — Even —
• Finding Neverland — 3:1 —
• A Very Long Engagement — 5:1 —

Best Costume Design

• The Aviator (c-1/25) — Even —
• Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events — 3:2 —
• Finding Neverland — 2:1 —
• Ray — 7:1 —
• Troy — 10:1 —

Best Makeup

• Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (c-11/24) — Even —
• The Passion of the Christ — 3:2 —
• The Sea Inside — 7:1 —

Best Sound Mixing

• Ray (c-2/23) — Even —
• The Aviator [6/24] — Even —
• The Incredibles — 3:2 —
• Spider-Man 2 — 5:2 —
• The Polar Express — 7:1 —

Best Sound Editing

• The Incredibles (c-1/25) — Even —
• Spider-Man 2 — Even —
• The Polar Express — 5:1 —

Best Visual Effects

• Spider-Man 2 (c-1/25) — Even —
• Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban — 3:2 —
• I, Robot — 3:1 —

Best Foreign Film

• The Chorus – France (c-1/25) — Even —
• The Sea Inside – Spain — Even —
• Downfall – Germany — 2:1 —
• As It Is In Heaven – Sweden — 4:1 —
• Yesterday – South Africa — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Feature

• Born Into Brothels (c-12/14) — Even —
• Super Size Me — Even —
• The Story of the Weeping Camel — 3:2 —
• Tupac: Resurrection — 3:2 —
• Twist of Faith — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Autism Is a World (c-1/25) — Even —
• Mighty Times: The Children’s March — Even —
• Sister Rose’s Passion — Even —
• The Children of Leningradsky — Even —
• Hardwood — Even —

Best Animated Short Film

• Birthday Boy (c-1/28) — Even —
• Gopher Broke — Even —
• Guard Dog — Even —
• Lorenzo — Even —
• Ryan — Even —

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Little Terrorist (c-1/25) — Even —
• Everything in This Country Must — Even —
• Two Cars, One Night — Even —
• Wasp — Even —
• 7:35 in the Morning — Even —