76th Academy Awards (2003): Winner Predictions

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Peter Jackson, Barrie M. Osborne, Fran Walsh (c-8/2) — Even —
• Mystic River – Clint Eastwood, Judie G. Hoyt, Robert Lorenz — 3:2 —
• Lost in Translation – Sofia Coppola, Ross Katz — 3:1 —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – Samuel Goldwyn Jr., Duncan Henderson, Peter Weir — 5:2 —
• Seabiscuit – Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Gary Ross, Jane Sindell — 10:1 —

Best Animated Feature

• Finding Nemo – Andrew Stanton (c-8/2) — 1:2 —
• The Triplets of Belleville – Sylvain Chomet — 3:2 —
• Brother Bear – Chuck Williams — 20:1 —

Best Director

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Peter Jackson (c-8/2) — 1:2 —
• Mystic River – Clint Eastwood — 2:1 —
• Lost in Translation – Sofia Coppola — 5:2 —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – Peter Weir — 10:1 —
• City of God – Fernando Meirelles — 7:1 —

Best Actor

• Mystic River – Sean Penn (c-11/6) — Even —
• Lost in Translation – Bill Murray — Even —
• Pirates of the Caribbean – Johnny Depp — 3:2 —
• House of Sand and Fog – Ben Kingsley — 3:1 —
• Cold Mountain – Jude Law — 10:1 —

Best Actress

• Monster – Charlize Theron (c-1/15) — Even —
• Something’s Gotta Give – Diane Keaton — 3:2 —
• 21 Grams – Naomi Watts — 5:1 —
• Whale Rider – Keisha Castle-Hughes — 7:1 —
• In America – Samantha Morton — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actor

• Mystic River – Tim Robbins (c-1/27) — Even —
• The Cooler – Alec Baldwin — 3:2 —
• 21 Grams – Benicio Del Toro — 3:1 —
• In America – Djimon Hounsou — 10:1 —
• The Last Samurai – Ken Watanabe — 10:1 —

Best Supporting Actress

• Cold Mountain – Renee Zellweger [] (c-8/2) — Even —
• Pieces of April – Patricia Clarkson — 2:1 —
• House of Sand and Fog – Shohreh Aghdashloo — 2:1 —
• Mystic River – Marcia Gay Harden — 5:2 —
• Thirteen – Holly Hunter — 10:1 —

Best Original Screenplay

• Lost in Translation – Sofia Coppola (c-11/6) — 1:2 —
• In America – Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, Kristen Sheridan — 2:1 —
• Finding Nemo – Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, David Reynolds — 3:2 —
• The Barbarian Invasions – Denys Arcand — 7:1 —
• Dirty Pretty Things – Steven Knight — 10:1 —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Mystic River – Brian Helgeland (c-11/6) — Even —
• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson — 3:2 —
• American Splendor – Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini — 5:2 —
• City of God – Braulio Mantovani — 4:1 —
• Seabiscuit – Gary Ross — 7:1 —

Best Original Song

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – “Into the West” (c-8/2) — Even —
• A Mighty Wind – “A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” — 3:2 —
• Cold Mountain – “You Will Be My Ain True Love” — 3:1 —
• The Triplets of Belleville – “The Triplets of Belleville” — 4:1 —
• Cold Mountain – “Scarlet Tide” — 7:1 —

Best Original Score

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Howard Shore (c-1/27) — Even —
• Big Fish – Danny Elfman — 3:2 —
• Finding Nemo – Thomas Newman — 3:1 —
• Cold Mountain – Gabriel Yared — 5:1 —
• House of Sand and Fog – James Horner — 10:1 —

Best Editing

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Jamie Selkirk (c-8/2) — Even —
• City of God – Daniel Rezende — Even —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – Lee Smith — 3:2 —
• Cold Mountain – Walter Murch — 4:1 —
• Seabiscuit – William Goldenberg — 7:1 —

Best Cinematography

• Seabiscuit – John Schwartzman (c-1/27) — Even —
• Girl with a Pearl Earring – Eduardo Serra — Even —
• Cold Mountain – John Seale — 3:1 —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – Russell Boyd — 4:1 —
• City of God – Cesar Charlone — 5:1 —

Best Art Direction

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Grant Major; Dan Henneh, Alan Lee (c-8/2) — Even —
• Girl with a Pearl Earring – Ben Van Os; Cecile Heideman — Even —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – William Sandell; Robert Gould — 2:1 —
• The Last Samurai – Lilly Kilvert; Gretchen Rau — 4:1 —
• Seabiscuit – Jeanine Oppewall; Leslie Pope — 7:1 —

Best Costume Design

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Ngila Dickson, Richard Taylor (c-1/27) — Even —
• Girl with a Pearl Earring – Dien van Straalen — Even —
• The Last Samurai – Ngila Dickson — 3:1 —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – Wendy Stiles — 4:1 —
• Seabiscuit – Judianna Makovsky — 7:1 —

Best Makeup

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King – Richard Taylor, Peter King (c-1/27) — Even —
• Pirates of the Caribbean – Ve Neill, Martin Samuel — 3:2 —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World – Edouard Henriques III, Yolanda Toussieng — 4:1 —

Best Sound Mixing

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (c-8/2) — Even —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World — 2:1 —
• Pirates of the Caribbean — 4:1 —
• The Last Samurai — 4:1 —
• Seabiscuit — 10:1 —

Best Sound Editing

• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (c-1/27) — Even —
• Pirates of the Caribbean — 3:1 —
• Finding Nemo — 4:1 —

Best Visual Effects

• The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (c-8/2) — 1:2 —
• Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World — 3:1 —
• Pirates of the Caribbean — 4:1 —

Best Foreign Film

• The Barbarian Invasions – Canada (c-1/27) — Even —
• Evil – Sweden — 3:2 —
• The Twilight Samurai – Japan — 2:1 —
• Twin Sisters – Netherlands — 3:1 —
• Zelary – Czech Republic — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Feature

• Capturing the Friedmans (c-1/7) — Even —
• The Fog of War — 3:2 —
• My Architect — 2:1 —
• The Weather Underground — 3:1 —
• Balseros — 5:1 —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Chernobyl Heart (c-1/27) — Even —
• Asylum — Even —
• Ferry Tales — 2:1 —

Best Animated Short Film

• Boundin’ (c-2/4) — Even —
• Harvie Krumpet — 3:2 —
• Destino — 2:1 —
• Nibbles — 2:1 —
• Gone Nutty — 3:1 —

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Two Soldiers (c-1/27) — Even —
• Most (The Bridge) — 3:2 —
• Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket) — 2:1 —
• Squash — 5:2 —
• (A) Torzija ([A] Torsion) — 4:1 —