74th Academy Awards (2001): Oscar Night

The 74th Academy Awards (2001): Oscar Night

Supporting Actor

• Jim Broadbent – Iris
• Ethan Hawke – Training Day
• Ben Kingsley – Sexy Beast
• Ian McKellen – The Lord of the Rings
• Jon Voight – Ali

Will Win: Ian McKellen
Might Win: Jim Broadbent, Ben Kingsley
Won’t Win: Ethan Hawke, Jon Voight
Oscar Potentials: If Sir Ian doesn’t win, it could be a rough night for Lord of the Rings. If any of the others win, it will not cement the victory of any other awards unless Hawke comes out of nowhere to win, giving Denzel a very good chance at the Oscar.

Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Connelly – A Beautiful Mind
• Helen Mirren – Gosford Park
• Maggie Smith – Gosford Park
• Marisa Tomei – In the Bedroom
• Kate Winslet – Iris

Will Win: Jennifer Connelly
Might Win: Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith
Won’t Win: Marisa Tomei, Kate Winslet
Oscar Potentials: Connelly’s win here is integral to an ABM Picture win. If one of the Gosford Park ladies wins, it could spell doom for ABM and Memento in Original Screenplay. If Tomei wins, look for a potential Tom Wilkinson win in Actor and a possible surprise win in Picture

Original Score

• A.I.
• A Beautiful Mind
• Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone
• The Lord of the Rings
• Monsters, Inc.

Will Win: The Lord of the Rings
Might Win: A Beautiful Mind, A.I., Harry Potter, Monsters, Inc.
Won’t Win: All have good chances.
Oscar Potentials: The Lord of the Rings seems to have the inner edge, but any of the others could come from behind to win. If Beautiful Mind takes the award, look for Rings to be a bridesmaid in the Picture category, but not a guarantee.

Film Editing

• A Beautiful Mind
• Black Hawk Down
• The Lord of the Rings
• Memento
• Moulin Rouge

Will Win: Moulin Rouge
Might Win: Rings, Memento, Beautiful Mind
Won’t Win: Black Hawk Down
Oscar Potentials: Moulin Rouge has the most editing and with its significant lack of chances in other categories, it should win. Voters may feel apologetic to Memento for not voting it Original Screenplay. However, if Memento doesn’t win here, we could see it triumph over Gosford Park in the Original Screenplay so that the film gets an award. If Mind or Rings triump here, the film will be stronger when it comes to the Picture race.

Cinematography

• Amelie
• Black Hawk Down
• The Lord of the Rings
• The Man Who Wasn’t There
• Moulin Rouge

Will Win: Man Who Wasn’t There
Might Win: Rings, Black Hawk Down, Moulin Rouge
Won’t Win: Amelie
Oscar Potentials: Man Who Wasn’t There took the ASC award, which gives it a significant boost and Deakins is beloved by many in the industry. If any film can take over, it’s Rings. If Rings wins, it could be a boost for the film’s chances at Picture. If Rouge wins, it could be a spoiler in the Picture race.

Art Direction/Set Decoration

• Amelie
• Gosford Park
• Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone
• The Lord of the Rings
• Moulin Rouge

Will Win: Lord of the Rings
Might Win: Moulin Rouge, Gosford Park, Harry Potter
Won’t Win: Amelie
Oscar Potentials: Rings has a very good shot, but Rouge could easily beat it. If Rings doesn’t win, it will be a rough night for the film. If Rouge wins, it won’t be a helpful or hindering. If Gosford Park sneaks in with a victory, it could end up the Picture winner.

Costume Design

• The Affair of the Necklace
• Gosford Park
• Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone
• The Lord of the Rings
• Moulin Rouge

Will Win: Moulin Rouge
Might Win: Rings, Gosford, Harry Potter
Won’t Win: Affair
Oscar Potentials: Rouge is the odds-on favorite in this category. If any film beats it, Rouge will have a tough time winning Picture. If Rings wins, it could be a sweep for the film. If Gosford wins this as well as Art Direction, it could mean that Picture is in its grasp or that they are giving it a bone, but may mean the death knell for Rings and Rouge for Picture.

Makeup

• A Beautiful Mind
• The Lord of the Rings
• Moulin Rouge

Will Win: Rings
Might Win: Mind, Rouge
Won’t Win: All have chances
Oscar Potentials: This is a category where the Top three competitors for this year’s Picture race combat in a toe-to-toe that could be very telling. As this is the first time in Academy history that all of the nominees have been Picture nominees, we do not know how it may impact, but a loss for Rings in this category will mean that the film doesn’t have the support of the tech divisions and the winner will likely end up with Picture honors, especially if Rouge is the winner.

Sound

• Amelie
• Black Hawk Down
• The Lord of the Rings
• Moulin Rouge
• Pearl Harbor

Will Win: Rings
Might Win: Moulin Rouge, Black Hawk Down, Pearl Harbor
Won’t Win: Amelie
Oscar Potentials: Rouge and Rings are the Top choices. If either film loses, their prospects at further Oscar gold are limited. Rouge or Rings winning, however will mean nothing specific to the chase for Picture.

Sound Effects Editing

• Monsters, Inc.
• Pearl Harbor

Will Win: Pearl Harbor
Might Win: Monsters, Inc.
Won’t Win: Kind of hard to say when there are only two nominees.
Oscar Potentials: Pearl Harbor is certainly the most technical and while an animated film has been nominated in the past, it didn’t win and it is highly unlikely that Monsters will break the trend. This race has NO impact on the Picture Oscar.

Visual Effects

• A.I.
• The Lord of the Rings
• Pearl Harbor

Will Win: Rings
Might Win: A.I., Pearl Harbor
Won’t Win: All films have a chance
Oscar Potentials: Rings is the odds-on favorite to win. A.I. could easily eclipse and the two could vote-split and give Harbor the win. If Rings loses, further proof is evident that the film could have lost support with the technical branches and it will lose Picture. A win here for Rings will mean nothing in the eventual Picture race.

Original Screenplay

• Amelie
• Gosford Park
• Memento
• Monster’s Ball
• The Royal Tenenbaums

Will Win: Memento
Might Win: Gosford Park, Monster’s Ball, Royal Tenenbaums
Won’t Win: Amelie
Oscar Potentials: Gosford Park is the only Picture nominee in this category. If it can overtake Memento, Altman could be the big winner in Director or this could be seen as a consolation prize for not giving it to Altman. If Gosford loses, Altman could still win as the film’s only consolation prize (or one of the Supporting Actress prizes could be theirs). If it doesn’t win Picture is pretty much out of its reach.

Adapted Screenplay

• A Beautiful Mind
• Ghost World
• In the Bedroom
• The Lord of the Rings
• Shrek

Will Win: Beautiful Mind
Might Win: In the Bedroom, Rings, Shrek
Won’t Win: Ghost World
Oscar Potentials: Three Picture nominees cap this race as one of the tent poles. Most are predicting Mind to win. If it fails to take this award, it will likely not be the eventual winner. If Bedroom wins, look for Spacek to potentially lose Actress. If Rings manages to capture this award, its supporters will have emerged from the woodworks and its win in the Picture category could be guaranteed.

Actress

• Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
• Judi Dench – Iris
• Nicole Kidman – Moulin Rouge
• Sissy Spacek – In the Bedroom
• Renee Zellweger – Bridget Jones’ Diary

Will Win: Berry
Might Win: Kidman, Spacek
Won’t Win: Dench, Zellweger
Oscar Potentials: This category is pretty wide and anyone could win. If Spacek wins, the status quo will be preserved. If Berry wins, Miramax will have proven they campaigned too little for In the Bedroom and that the Academy is wanting to make history with its first black Actress win and could mean that the Academy wanting to break its Fantasy tradition will not occur and Rings will lose Picture. If Kidman wins, Moulin Rouge is virtually guaranteed the Picture prize.

Actor

• Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind
• Sean Penn – I Am Sam
• Will Smith – Ali
• Denzel Washington – Training Day
• Tom Wilkinson – In the Bedroom

Will Win: Washington
Might Win: Crowe, Penn, Wilkinson
Won’t Win: Smith
Oscar Potentials: Washington could be the choice of the blacks-don’t-win-enough vote. He’s also a good guy in a bad guy role. If Crowe wins, it will be the sign that Mind is likely to win Picture, but his loss hear could mean that Mind will not triumph in the Top category. Wilkinson’s win, along with any of the other Bedroom nominees could indicate a surprise win for In the Bedroom.

Animated Feature

• Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius
• Monsters, Inc.
• Shrek

Will Win: Shrek
Might Win: Monsters, Inc.
Won’t Win: Jimmy Neutron
Oscar Potentials: Shrek is the most likely, but Monsters could benefit from an anti-Shrek sentiment. This category has no bearing on the Picture category.

Original Song

• “If I Didn’t Have You” – Monsters, Inc.
• “May It Be” – The Lord of the Rings
• “There You’ll Be” – Pearl Harbor
• “Until” – Kate & Leopold
• “Vanilla Sky” – Vanilla Sky

Will Win: Vanilla Sky
Might Win: May It Be, If I Didn’t Have You, Until
Won’t Win: There You’ll Be
Oscar Potentials: If Rings wins this category, it could be a boon for Rings, which may have the upper edge with a victory in this category. Any other winner selection will mean nothing towards the eventual Picture race.

Foreign Film

• Argentina: Son of the Bride
• Bosnia & Herzegovina: No Man’s Land
• France: Amelie
• Norway: Elling
• India: Lagaan

Will Win: Amelie
Might Win: No Man’s Land, Lagaan
Won’t Win: Son of the Bride, Elling
Oscar Potentials: Amelie has a firm grasp on this award, but sentiment for war-torn No Man’s Land could propel it to victory. This will test Miramax’ vote-getting potential this year and could influence other categories.

Director

• Robert Altman – Gosford Park
• Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind
• Peter Jackson – The Lord of the Rings
• David Lynch – Mulholland Drive
• Ridley Scott – Black Hawk Down

Will Win: Howard
Might Win: Altman, Jackson
Won’t Win: Lynch, Scott
Oscar Potentials: A win here for Howard would be a good bet for a win for Mind. If Gosford wins, Mind could still win, but it will be a tough battle. If Jackson wins, this could mean a victory in the air for Rings.

Picture

• A Beautiful Mind
• Gosford Park
• In the Bedroom
• The Lord of the Rings
• Moulin Rouge

Will Win: Rings
Might Win: Mind, Rouge, Gosford, Bedroom
Won’t Win: All candidates have a terrific opportunity
Oscar Potentials: This is the category for all the marbles.