Looking at Film from Every Angle

69th Academy Awards (1996): Winner Predictions

AWARDS
7 2 – 1 – – – – – – – – – – – –	The English Patient Evita Fargo Cosmic Voyage Dear Diary Hamlet Primal Fear Ridicule Shine The Ghost and the Darkness The Hunchback of Notre Dame The Mirror Has Two Faces The Nutty Professor Twister Wat’s Pig When We Were Kings

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award (except the short film categories, which are unranked and each listed as “Toss Up”). I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think they are a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

Best Picture

The English Patient

Fargo
Jerry Maguire
Secrets & Lies
Shine

Will Win: The English Patient
Should Win: The English Patient
Runner Up: Shine
Deserved a Nomination: Evita

Well, I have now seen all of the contenders,Jerry Maguire is not one of them and is the one film I haven’t seen.Patient is still the best of the lot.Secrets & Lies was great, but doesn’t have what it takes to win Best Picture, not in a year with films likePatient andShine.Shine was also a great film, it does have what it takes to win, mainly, it pleases the elderly (The Academy) and the younger generation (Part of the Academy). As forFargo, I found the film highly overrated and while the performances were great, I just didn’t see anything truely noteworthy. Ok, those were MY reasons, but here are the reasons that will make the most sense. Since director and picture go hand-in-hand, and Minghella, the director ofPatient, took the DGA honor (DGA being extremely good at predicting the winner of best director, only 4 times in history has it disagreed), it makes him a lock on Best Director and confirmsPatient as the film to beat.Shine would be the closest to actually winning.Fargo was too violent.Secrets & Lies was too foreign. AndMaguire made too much money, only once in the past several years has the highest grossing nominee one Picture (Forrest Gump in 1993).

Best Director

Anthony Minghella – The English Patient

Joel Coen – Fargo
Milos Forman – The People vs. Larry Flynt
Scott Hicks – Shine
Mike Leigh – Secrets & Lies

Will Win: Anthony Minghella
Should Win: Anthony Minghella or Scott Hicks
Runner Up: Mike Leigh
Deserved a Nomination: Alan Parker – Evita

The DGA award Minghella won cements his victory. Only 4 times in History have the DGA winners NOT won the Oscar ® as well.

Best Actor

Geoffrey Rush – Shine

Tom Cruise – Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes – The English Patient
Woody Harrelson – The People vs. Larry Flynt
Billy Bob Thornton – Sling Blade

Will Win: Geoffrey Rush
Should Win: Geoffrey Rush
Runner Up: Billy Bob Thornton
Deserved a Nomination: Liam Neeson – Michael Collins

A lot of talk is going around that Billy Bob Thornton could pull off an upset victory. I’m not sure if he can. WithShine being beaten out of every other category, where else would they honor the film but here. Geoffrey Rush has won several pre-Oscar ® awards. I think it will be close, but ultimately, Rush will take the prize. And coming from behind may be Tom Cruise winning through the Rush/Thornton vote split.

Best Actress

Frances McDormand – Fargo

Brenda Blethyn – Secrets & Lies
Diane Keaton – Marvin’s Room
Kristin Scott Thomas – The English Patient
Emily Watson – Breaking the Waves

Will Win: Frances McDormand
Should Win: Frances McDormand
Runner Up: Brenda Blethyn
Deserved a Nomination: Madonna – Evita; Debbie Reynolds – Mother

Simply put, the race comes down to the Hollywood actress McDormand and the Outsider Brenda Blethyn. Both have picked up Pre-Oscar ® awards, but McDormand won the more important of the two, the Screen Actors Guild Award. What it will come down to is McDormand IS part of Hollywood, while Blethyn is not, McDormand has done many films and earned a lot of respect Blethyn has a very promising career.

Best Supporting Actor

Edward Norton – Primal Fear

Cuba Gooding Jr. – Jerry Maguire
William H. Macy – Fargo
Armin Mueller-Stahl – Shine
James Woods – Ghosts of Mississippi

Will Win: Edward Norton
Should Win: Edward Norton
Runner Up: Cuba Gooding Jr.
Deserved a Nomination: Hank Azaria – The Birdcage

While Gooding won the Screen Actor’s Guild award, it will still be Norton’s award. Three great performances in one year. While Gooding is considered by some to be a favorite, I must contradict, remember, this is Hollywood we’re talking about and only five black performers have EVER won an Oscar ®
SD: 1939’s Hattie McDaniel forGone With the Wind for Supporting Actress, Sidney Poitier forLilies of the Field as Best Actor in 1963, in 1982, we had: Louis Gossett Jr. for Best Supporting Actor in An Officer and a Gentleman. Denzel Washingtonin 1989 for Supporting Actor inGlory and Whoopi Goldberg for Ghost in 1990 as Supporting Actress. McDaniel starred in 48 films before she won hers, Poitier had been in 18, Gossett Jr. had been in 12 films up to that point. Washington only 6 and Whoopi had appeared in 9. While these each appeared in an Oscar ®
SD: nominated roll (Save for McDaniel and Gossett), Gooding Jr. has never had a nomination before and has 9 film creidts, while more than 6, it’s still not enough to compete against a rave-reviewed performer who appeared in not one, but THREE movies, all with great performances.

Best Supporting Actress

Lauren Bacall – The Mirror Has Two Faces

Joan Allen – The Crucible
Juliette Binoche – The English Patient
Barbara Hershey – The Portrait of a Lady
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Secrets & Lies

Will Win: Lauren Bacall
Should Win: Barbara Hershey
Runner Up: Joan Allen
Deserved a Nomination: Courtney Love – The People vs. Larry Flynt

Bacall won the SAG award and is also the long-time favorite here. She’s a veteran of Hollywood and her only competition is Joan Allen.

Best Original Screenplay

Fargo

Jerry Maguire
Lone Star
Secrets & Lies
Shine

Will Win: Fargo
Should Win: Lone Star
Runner Up: Fargo
Deserved a Nomination: The People vs. Larry Flynt

This is a battle royal betweenLone Star andFargo while all of the others have good chances, what givesLone Star an edge is that its fellow nominees are all best picture nominees, which splits the vote considerably and givesLone Star, considered by most the most well-written piece this year, a good chance. But I must got with my ORIGINAL prediction, when I first set up these predictions back in Summer, I had pickedFargo as Best Original Screenplay, a lot has changed, but it looks like the focus is back on this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The English Patient

The Crucible
The English Patient
Hamlet
Sling Blade

Will Win: The English Patient
Should Win: The English Patient
Runner Up: Sling Blade
Deserved a Nomination: Evita

Patient is not only the sole Best Picture nominee, it was also adpated from a novel that most said would be impossible. The only major competition comes fromSling Blade which, if Thronton loses for Best Actor, could give him the award here.

Best Original Song

“You Must Love Me” – Evita

“Because You Loved Me” – Up Close & Personal
“For the First Time” – One Fine Day
“I’ve Finally Found Someone” – The Mirror Has Two Faces
“That Thing You Do!” – That Thing You Do!

Will Win: “You Must Love Me”
Should Win: “You Must Love Me”
Runner Up: “Because You Loved Me”
Deserved a Nomination: “Heaven’s Light/Hellfire” – The Hunchback of Notre Dame

Evita is a Musical and “You Must Love Me” is the ONLY original song in the film. They will honor it to honor Madonna. Celine Dion’s “Because” is the closest competition.

Best Dramatic Score

The English Patient

Hamlet
Michael Collins
Shine
Sleepers

Will Win: The English Patient
Should Win: The English Patient
Runner Up: Shine
Deserved a Nomination: Star Trek: First Contact

It’s the English piece or the one withShine. Look forPatient to win as part of their Best Picture sweep. Sleepers‘ nomination was for John Williams, a veteran, not necessarily the film.

Best Comedy/Musical Score

The Hunchback of Notre Dame

Emma
The First Wives Club
James and the Giant Peach
The Preacher’s Wife

Will Win: The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Should Win: The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Runner Up: James and the Giant Peach
Deserved a Nomination: Evita – If only it were eligible.

Hunchback is almost assuredly the winner here. This will give Alan Menken win Number 9.

Best Editing

The English Patient

Evita
Fargo
Jerry Maguire
Shine

Will Win: The English Patient
Should Win: Evita
Runner Up: Evita
Deserved a Nomination: Star Trek: First Contact

Best Picture winner usually wins here.Patient will win.Evita is also a strong contender.

Best Cinematography

The English Patient

Evita
Fargo
Fly Away Home
Michael Collins

Will Win: The English Patient
Should Win: Evita
Runner Up: Evita
Deserved a Nomination: No others

Patient will carry it’s picture wins here.Evita andMichael Collins are the only major contenders.

Best Art Direction

The English Patient

The Birdcage
Evita
Hamlet
William Shakespeare’s Romeo + Juliet

Will Win: Evita
Should Win: Evita
Runner Up: Hamlet
Deserved a Nomination: Star Trek: First Contact

Snubbing Evita will give it many tech awards.Hamlet andPatient have good chances as well.

Best Costume Design

Hamlet

Angels and Insects
Emma
The English Patient
The Portrait of a Lady

Will Win: Hamlet
Should Win: Hamlet
Runner Up: The Portrait of a Lady
Deserved a Nomination: Evita

WithEvita conspicuously missing from this category,Hamlet will stand victorious, but watch forPortrait to come out just behind it.

Best Makeup

The Nutty Professor

Ghosts of Mississippi
Star Trek: First Contact

Will Win: The Nutty Professor
Should Win: Star Trek: First Contact
Runner Up: Star Trek: First Contact
Deserved a Nomination: Evita

Star Trek‘s tons of Makeup should earn it a victory here to give the Trek saga an Oscar ® richly deserved. Professor has the better shot, unfortunately.

Best Sound Mixing

Evita

The English Patient
Fargo
Jerry Maguire
Shine

Will Win: Evita
Should Win: Evita
Runner Up: Twister
Deserved a Nomination: Star Trek: First Contact

Evita being a Musical gets the highest form here, the only other platform to consider is the techno-blockbuster.

Best Sound Editing

The Ghost and the Darkness

Daylight
Eraser

Will Win: The Ghost and the Darkness
Should Win: The Ghost and the Darkness
Runner Up: Eraser
Deserved a Nomination: Twister

The obvious choices were eliminated and the crap films of 1996 remain. OnlyGhost and the Darkness had reviews to support its win.

Best Visual Effects

Twister

Dragonheart
Independence Day

Will Win: Twister
Should Win: Twister
Runner Up: Dragonheart
Deserved a Nomination: Star Trek: First Contact

Will they honor the biggest blockbuster of the year,ID4 or the most technological,Twister? Well,Dragonheart could benefit from the squabble and come out victorious.