As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

Things are still surprisingly murky just prior to the major year-end festivals. That doesn’t mean a few things aren’t expected. There are plenty of things that have kept popping up that seem like sure things and some that have faded a bit and disappeared from the competition altogether. After the festivals, we should have a clearer idea of what’s succeeding and what’s struggling and we’ll give you more thoughts after that.

KEY:

Best Picture

• At Eternity’s Gate New PP A
• Backseat New TB A TL O
• Beautiful Boy TB O
• Black Panther WL O New TB A
• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Boy Erased WL O PP O TL O
• The Favourite TL O
• First Man WL O New PP A TB O TL O
• The Front Runner WL O PP O TB O
• If Beale Street Could Talk New WL A TB O TL O
• Mary Poppins Returns PP O
• Mary Queen of Scots WL O New PP A TL O
• On the Basis of Sex New WL A TB O
• Operation Finale WL O
• Peterloo New PP A
• Roma TB O New TL A
• A Star Is Born New PP A TB O TL O
• Where’d You Go, Bernadette? WL O
• Widows PP O TL O

Best Animated Feature

• The Grinch WL O TL O
• Incredibles 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Isle of Dogs WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Mirai TB O
• Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Smallfoot PP O
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse WL O PP O TL O
• White Fang TB O

Best Director

• At Eternity’s Gate – Julian Schnabel New PP A
• Black Panther – Ryan Coogler WL O New TB A
• BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Boy Erased – Joel Edgerton WL O
• The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos New TL TL A
• First Man – Damien Chazelle WL O TB O TL TL O
• The Front Runner – Jason Reitman WL O TB O
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins TL TL O
• Mary Queen of Scots – Josie O’Rourke New PP A
• On the Basis of Sex – Mimi Leder TB O
• Roma – Alfonso Cuaron New TL TL A
• A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper New PP A
• Widows – Steve McQueen New PP A

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Backseat TL O
• Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy New WL A PP O TB O TL TL O
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate New PP A TB O
• Ryan Gosling – First Man WL O TB O TL TL O
• Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased WL O PP O TB O New TL TL A
• Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner WL O PP O TB O
• Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun New PP A
• John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman WL O TL TL O

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Backseat New TB A
• Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns WL O New PP A
• Glenn Close – The Wife PP O TL TL O
• Penélope Cruz – Loving Pablo
• Viola Davis – Widows PP O TB O
• Kathryn Hahn – Private Life TB O
• Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex New WL A TB O TL TL O
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born New WL A New PP A TL TL O
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O TL TL O
• Carey Mulligan – Wildlife TB O
• Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots WL O PP O TL TL O

Best Supporting Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Russell Crowe – Boy Erased New WL A TB O
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman PP O TL TL O
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born New PP A New TL TL A
• Rupert Friend – At Eternity’s Gate New PP A
• Topher Grace – BlacKkKlansman New TB A
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? WL O TL TL O
• Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex WL O
• Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate New PP A
• Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther New TB A
• Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick TB O
• Sam Rockwell – Backseat TL TL O
• J.K. Simmons – The Front Runner WL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Backseat TL O
• Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner PP O TB O
• Claire Foy – First Man WL O TB O TL TL O
• Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk New WL A TB O New TL TL A
• Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots New WL A PP O TL TL O
• Michelle Rodriguez – Widows New PP A
• Sissy Spacek – Old Man and the Gun New PP A
• Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns WL O
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite New TB A

Best Original Screenplay

• At Eternity’s Gate PP O
• Backseat TB O TL TL O
• Boy Erased WL O
• Destroyer TL TL O
• Eighth Grade TB O
• Everybody Knows PP O
• The Favourite PP O TB O TL TL O
• Operation Finale WL O
• Peterloo WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Roma WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Widows WL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Beautiful Boy PP O TL O
• BlacKkKlansman WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Boy Erased PP O TB O TL TL O
• First Man WL O TB O
• The Front Runner WL O TB O
• If Beale Street Could Talk WL O TB O TL TL O
• Mary Queen of Scots WL O PP O TL TL O
• Widows PP O

Best Visual Effects

• Annihilation WL O TL O
• Avengers: Infinity War PP O TL TL O
• Black Panther WL O PP O TB O
• First Man WL O PP O TB O TL TL O
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom TB O
• Mary Poppins Returns WL O
• Mortal Engines TB O
• Mowgli PP O TL TL O
• Ready Player One TB O TL TL O
• Solo: A Star Wars Story PP O
• A Wrinkle in Time WL O