Below is our final wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

April 7, 2023

Air (on 4.5.2023)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Even when uncertain, a Ben Affleck-directed film has to be considered a contender and early reviews have been strong for the film, which could bolster its Oscar chances.”
Oscar Results: Now Uncertain. The film pleased critics, but audiences weren’t enamored and that could hinder its chances at the Oscars, especially having to wait for more than half a year to see if even critics groups remember the film.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. This has the potential to be a major motion picture at theaters. It’s an adult story about how Michael Jordan became the savior of Nike.”
Box Office Results: $52.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] With such a star-studded cast and a compelling premise along with strong reviews, it’s surprising the film didn’t do better.

Paint

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film’s prospects are limited because abstract comedies just don’t seem to have a huge following these days. I’m not expecting much out of this one.”
Box Office Results: $0.811 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It’s no surprise that this film was a flop. No one wants to watch a comedy that’s loosely based on the Bob Ross personality.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie (on 4.5.2023)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. While it has potential for an Oscar nomination, the Academy doesn’t tend to like adaptations from other mediums, which could hamper the film’s chances.”
Oscar Results: Still Weak. What makes the film’s Oscar chances weak is that The Lego Movie was a huge success at the box office and still got shut out. There isn’t nearly as much competition this year, so it’s still in the Oscar landscape, but it’s not as obvious a selection as others.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s animated, which suggests it could do better than Sonic‘s mixed-media performance, but they’ve been keeping Chris Pratt’s vocal work pretty low key, which suggests it could be a liability.”
Box Office Results: $574.5 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] The former box office champ of 2023 was a hugely successful affair that brought legions of viewers to the theater.

April 14, 2023

The Pope’s Exorcist

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Exorcism films can do decent box office and with Russell Crowe starring, that could goose its numbers. That said, even before the pandemic, the genre wasn’t performing well, so perhaps those days are behind it.”
Box Office Results: $20 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s a sad state that a film based on the real-life exorcist who made the William Peter Blatty/William Friedkin The Exorcist such a major hit and a genre progenitor would have such a dismal performance.

Renfield

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s a comedy about Dracula played by Nicolas Cage. This has the potential to be both a modest-sized hit and a blockbuster. We’ll see.”
Box Office Results: $17.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A vampire comedy seemed like it could be a pretty big hit, but audiences didn’t seem to give this one the time of day.

Suzume

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Anime has such an uneven reception at the U.S. box office that it’s almost impossible to tell which will be hits and which will be flops.”
Box Office Results: $10.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Performing on par for most anime films in recent memory, it’s not a spectacular outcome when compared to the major studios’ output, but is solid on a second-string basis.

April 21, 2023

Chevalier

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The early release may hurt it, but the Production Design and Costume Design categories are perfect for this kind of film.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. The film did better than expected at the box office, but 7 months it a long time to get no attention going into Oscar season.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Period dramas rarely do well at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $3.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It wasn’t a huge success at the box office, but would have made a satisfactory run at the specialty box office.

Evil Dead Rise

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been so long since the last Evil Dead movie released and the zombie franchise has taken a tumble due to oversaturation. I don’t know that this one can overcome the negatives to be much of a hit.”
Box Office Results: $67.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] The return of the Evil Dead franchise did well, but it’s probable the studio thought it would be even bigger than it actually was.

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Guy Ritchie is still making movies in spite of his lackluster box office fortunes. He’s not yet locked onto an idea that has brought him as much success as the Sherlock Holmes films.”
Box Office Results: $16.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Guy Ritchie’s films aren’t big box office draws without big box office stars and while Jake Gyllenhaal is certainly a strong actor, his box office potential has been poor in recent years.

April 28, 2023

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Now Uncertain. While I initially thought the film had no chances, its ecstatic reviews bolster its chances, though these dismal box office numbers hurt it.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Is there a market for this kind of movie? Perhaps, but it will take some extra special magic to make it a decent hit.”
Box Office Results: $20.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The critics adored the film, but audiences didn’t seem to give it a chance. Sure, it was tarted at young girls, but they’ve turned out for movies before, so this is pretty disappointing.

Big George Foreman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The early release will make it difficult for this biopic to maintain momentum through the end of the year, but it would seem like the kind of film the Academy has been honoring of late.”
Oscar Results: Now none.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While boxing dramas seem to be doing well at the box office, can a boxing biopic duplicate that success? Probably not to the extent that the Creed series has, but perhaps.”
Box Office Results: $5.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A biopic on a popular boxing figure couldn’t pick up significant attention to become a huge hit.

Sisu

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It just doesn’t seem like the film that survives at the box office for long.”
Box Office Results: $7.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] A strong performance for a film that no one knew anything about. It’s still not a great box office outcome, but solid all things considered.

Polite Society

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s probably a market out there for this film, especially in the wake of the success of RRR, but I doubt this movie can tap into it.”
Box Office Results: $1.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Another film that had a lot of potential, but which faced a fairly hostile box office climate and couldn’t build on word of mouth for a strong performance.