March 3, 2017

Before I Fall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the concept should appeal to tweens and many adults, it hasn’t had nearly the level of advertising needed to be a breakaway hit.”
Box Office Results: $12.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The teen demographic has not been friendly to these kinds of films lately, but that won’t stop studios from trying.

Logan

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. While some might clamor for Hugh Jackman to earn a nomination for this (or even Patrick Stewart), the Academy is afraid of superhero movies, so above-the-line recognitions aren’t likely to be forthcoming.”
Oscar Results: There is a small chance that the film could be an Oscar player thanks to overwhelming critical and box office support, but Hugh Jackman has a more likely contender in The Greatest Showman and Patrick Stewart doesn’t have nearly as much buzz surrounding him in th lead-up to Oscar season.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first Wolverine film did $179 million in business. The sequel went out with only $132 million. Those are roughly the middle and bottom of the X-Men pack, so I wouldn’t expect the final Wolverine installment to outperform the first film, but it should do better than the second one.”
Box Office Results: $226.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Far exceeding expectations, this divergent take on the superhero story managed to inspire audiences and make for one of the bigger successes in the X-Men universe.

The Shack

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Inspirational films can usually do well with audiences and Octavia Spencer is a fairly recognizable commodity. That it’s based on a popular book should help, but I doubt it will be a runaway success.”
Box Office Results: $57.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Hitting just the right niche and going no further, this inspirational drama did precisely what it needed to do.

Table 19 (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. An indie comedy releasing in limited theaters isn’t exactly a formula for success.”
Box Office Results: $3.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] With a raft of prominent stars, it is unsurprising that the film did decently for a comedy on the specialty scene, but a break-out hit it was not.

March 10, 2017

Kong: Skull Island

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first King Kong film in 1933 wasn’t an Oscar player. The second picked up two nominations while the third won three of four nominations. I doubt the upward trend will continue, but this film has to be seen as a potential Oscar nominee, especially in tech categories. However, competition today is much more fierce than it was in 2005.”
Oscar Results: Without the runaway box office success it hoped and the countless other films that have come along since, I suspect the movie will be forgotten by Oscar time.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Peter Jackson’s King Kong 12 years ago was a smash hit, as was the 1976 version. This is the first that isn’t the classic story, so it may not be able to drum up nearly as much business. Those films made close to the same amount of money, over $200 million adjusted for inflation. This film may struggle to get to that.”
Box Office Results: $168.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Although it was a success, it wasn’t the kind of success the studio was hoping for and might not lead to further sequels as expected.

The Ottoman Lieutenant (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film looks like the kind of movie that might once have dominated the Oscars, but these day such films are hardly Oscar bait, especially ones with so few extremely recognizable faces.”
Oscar Results: Being a flop with both audiences and critics ends any meager speculation there might have been.
Box Office Prospects: $2.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film is opening at the specialty box office, which will limit its chance at box office glory. A platform release is possible if critics support it.”
Box Office Results: $0.241 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Casting actors with little name recognition and failing to properly advertise leads to this level of disappointment.

Personal Shopper (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Some thought Kristen Stewart would claim an Oscar nomination for her performance in Sils Maria, but she didn’t. The same might be discussed for this film, but I’m sure it will probably go the same direction.”
Oscar Results: There will be talk of Kristen Stewart again and she might pick up a critic prize somewhere, but the film is not going to be an Oscar contender.
Box Office Prospects: $1.7 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Olivier Assayas’ last two major films (Clouds of Sils Maria and Summer Hours) performed about the same, so I wouldn’t expect much more or less than that.”
Box Office Results: $1.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] At the indie box office, this tally is respectable if nothing else.

March 17, 2017

Beauty and the Beast

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Beauty and the Beast was the first animated film ever nominated for Best Picture. While I doubt this remake will be able to accomplish the same feat, the downballot categories are sure to fall in line. There are new original songs, it’s sure to figure in Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Sound Mixing. With that many categories in play, it could end up a Best Picture nominee as well.”
Oscar Results: While the film might not end up in the Best Picture race, it’s sure to be nominatd for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design if nothing else, with both categories being likely wins.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Disney has made great successes out of its previous live-action adaptations. There’s no reason to believe the same won’t be true for one of their all-time favorite musicals.”
Box Office Results: $504 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The original film was a success, but it has since built into a phenomenon of epic proportions, which is reflected in the staggering box office tally that is sure to hold onto the top spot for the remainder of the year, though Star Wars: The Last Jedi is seemingly likely to surpass it.

The Belko Experiment

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. This type of film may not be the blockbuster type, but it’s a concept that can sell quite well and they have done some solid advertising for it.”
Box Office Results: $10.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It might eventually become a cult hit, but films that try to be such don’t always succeed and the box office here would suggest that things haven’t panned out yet.

T2: Trainspotting (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been 20 years since the original film hit the big screen. It was a decent sized specialty success taking in over $16 million. The problem is that many films can’t take a 20-year hiatus and still maintain their relevance or interest. This one might be different, but I’m not expecting too much out of it at this juncture.”
Box Office Results: $2.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Releasing so long after the original was a recipe for disaster, but even for a film that was mildly popular in its day, the sequel was a dismal failure.

March 24, 2017

CHiPs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first trailer wasn’t good and it’s likely that most fans of the original show will turn their noses up at this pale imitation. That said, there are a lot of younger folk who will tune into the insanity and give it a go.”
Box Office Results: $18.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] No one wanted a remake of the TV series, but they got it anyway. Had they focused on the original series’ tone, they might have had a hit, but they tried for the 21 Jump Street tone, didn’t succeed, and paid the ultimate price for it: catastrophic failure.

Life

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It may be an early release, but special effects films will all be Oscar contenders. It’s whether they’ll get nominated that’s the question and I don’t think this will have original content to get there, but if critics love it and carry it into the year-end awards, it could pick up a few citations.”
Oscar Results: With the box office failure, the film is certain to be forgotten by Oscar time. It might pick up a stray nomination from the sound editors guild, but that’s as far as it might go.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Jake Gyllenhaal and Ryan Reynolds in a science fiction film together, one that deals with alien lifeforms? That sounds like box office gold to me. It may not perform as well as some recent sci-fi spectacles, but it should perform well enough to be a success.”
Box Office Results: $30.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The cast should have sold it, but the mystery of the trailer and the similarities to Alien may have hindered its performance. The modest support of critics didn’t help.

Power Rangers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. 22 year ago, the first Power Rangers movie brought in a decent $75 million. Are the characters still popular enough to earn that level of busines now? It’s doubtful, but surprises are just that: surprising.”
Box Office Results: $85.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] It outperformed expectations, though it wasn’t likely the type of hit the studio wanted. However, considering the weekend’s other releases, these numbers are respectable.

Wilson (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. There will probably be some chatter for past Oscar nominee Woody Harrleson getting a nomination, but you don’t release an Oscar contender in March, especially one that requires expoure.”
Oscar Results: Although it seemed Woody Harrelson was pushing towards a resurgent Oscar career, those dreams seem to keep getting stifled.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s the kind of comedy that the specialty box office can get behind. If it strikes the right interest level, it could blow my predictions away and go wide.”
Box Office Results: $0.654 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Indie comedies are a dime a dozen, but few have this kind of cast. That critics were hostile or lukewarm to it didn’t help.

March 31, 2017

The Boss Baby

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: It may have done well at the box office, but the critics still weren’t impressed and that goes a long way towards how a film is received by the Academy. In this case, it won’t likely be.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Animated films can and do often make boatloads of cash at the box office. Yet, duds still show up, especially ones that are built on flimsy premises like this. Storks is the best comparison and that film pulled in just over $72 million, which isn’t nearly as much as its contemporaries can command.”
Box Office Results: $174.6 (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) M
Thoughts: [Success] DreamWorks still has the capability of selling box office dreams even in its lackluster string of recent releases. While it wasn’t a runaway hit, it was enough of one to encourage the studio to continue making mediocre fare.

Ghost in the Shell

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s amazing how well Lucy did on the back of Scarlett Johansson’s performance. Her everpresence in the Marvel Cinematic Universe gives her exposure. Throw in the futuristic re-adaptation of Ghost in the Shell, and she could have another hit on her hands.”
Box Office Results: $40.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Even Scarlett Johansson couldn’t save this misguided film. The whitewash controversy may have hurt the film with its attempts to reach a wider audience, but fans of the anime clearly turned out.

Step Sisters

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The film hasn’t had much in the way of advertising so far and is very likely to be pushed back all things considered. I wouldn’t expect much at all from this film.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Film removed from the release schedule.

The Zookeeper’s Wife

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The Academy doesn’t love costume dramas the way it once did, but if Niki Caro’s film can win over critics, it could be a major player with Jessica Chastain finally having a vehicle that can lead her to Oscar glory. Unfortunately, things don’t look that promising.”
Oscar Results: Films that release this early in the year, especially ones with limited support from critics, don’t tend to make it all the way to the Oscars.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A period drama with Jessica Chastain in the lead could be a sleeper hit based solely on the popularity of the book on which it’s based. I suspect, however, that the film will fail to live up to expectations and will fade quickly.”
Box Office Results: $17.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The popular book didn’t translate into a popular film. The lack of strong reviews from critics may have hindered its performance capability, but the studio didn’t properly platform it, so it didn’t make it very far at the box office.