For our eighth Rundown article, we look at the penultimate acting category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that rounds off our coverage of the acting prizes.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington – Fences (TL R) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (TL R) [New]
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: After Denzel Washington won the SAG award, people started talking about how he suddenly jumped into the lead for the Oscar race. The main problem here is that SAG had never awarded Washington before, so it was unlikely that they would continue to ignore him for an actor who’s young enough to have a strong career and another chance at the award. The other problem with this hypothesis is that only six actors to date have won three Oscars (Walter Brennan, Ingrid Bergman, Katharine Hepburn, Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Meryl Streep). Streep had to wait 29 years before she claimed her third trophy. Washington just won his second 15 year ago. That doesn’t mean he can’t win again, Nicholson only waited 14 to pick up his third. There’s no doubt the Academy will be ready to give Washington a third at some point, but is that moment now? Possibly. It’s been 27 years since Washington won his first. As a frame of reference, this would put him ahead of Bergman, Streep, and Hepburn, but behind Brennan, Nicholson, and Day-Lewis for span between first and third victories. Brennan was the fastest to this record, achieving it in 1940, four years after his first win. 22 years for Nicholson, 23 years for Day-Lewis, 30 years for Bergman, 32 for Streep, and 36 for Hepburn (49 years for her fourth). Casey Affleck had been running the board to this point, but with Washington winning, Affleck faces stiff competition. While I still think Affleck will carry the day, I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington follows his co-star Viola Davis to the winner’s circle and becomes the first actor of color to net a third acting trophy.
Peter J. Patrick: Casey Affleck has won thirty Best Actor awards for Manchester by the Sea so far and should be invincible. Yet, the day after this year’s SAG awards, online pundits started predicting that Denzel Washington would win based on his only major win thus far, the SAG award. This was Washington’s first SAG award. He already has two Oscars so he is not at the same footing with the Academy. I hope the upset doesn’t happen, not because I don’t think Washington is as worthy as Affleck, but because I’d like nothing better than to see those know-it-all pundits eat crow.
Tripp Burton: What seemed like a done deal became a lot more questionable when Denzel Washington won the SAG Award. SAG has a history of choosing more mainstream winners and then Oscar reverting back to the independent fare, so it might not be as big of a boost for Denzel. Also, he isn’t nominated for a BAFTA, so we won’t have another race between the two of them until Oscar night. The question is if the talk of Affleck’s past actions, and the court settlements he paid out, are going to hurt him, and if Oscar voters are really ready for Denzel to be a 3-time winner.
Thomas La Tourrette: The SAG award certainly changed the course of this category. It had looked like Casey Affleck had an easy job going on to win Best Actor for Manchester by the Sea. He had won almost every award given and was starting to seem like a shoo-in for the Oscar. Then the SAG went to Denzel Washington for Fences, and all that we thought was up in the air. Both actors turned in, in my opinion, career-best performances and would easily be the frontrunner in the category if it were not for the other one. Washington already has two Oscars, which might have precluded him from winning a third. However, the Academy lately has been willing to bestow a third acting Oscar, see both Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis, so it would not be unprecedented. Had Denzel been anything less than brilliant, I do not think he would have stood a chance. But he was, and he could win for a far more deserving role than Training Day was. Affleck is young and probably has several more possibilities to win, which probably is not in his favor now. Some sexual assault allegations from 2010 resurfaced and are probably doing some harm to his chances as well, just like they knocked Nate Parker and his film The Birth of a Nation out of consideration. Casey still might win, but I think that the momentum is moving towards Denzel. The other three nominees do not stand much of a chance, unless a huge sweep for La La Land propels Ryan Gosling onto the podium, but that is not likely to happen. I think that Denzel might just win in a squeaker of a race.

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