The big guild announcement this weekend will be the Directors Guild of America. One of the most accurate Oscar barometers out there, the winner here is almost guaranteed the Best Director Oscar and his film is likely to also be the Best Picture winner, that’s how often this group aligns with the Academy.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Damien Chazelle – La La Land (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Garth Davis – Lion
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Wesley Lovell: He’s the man of the hour and as the director of the likely Best Picture winner at the Oscars, he will get the directing recognition. Only Barry Jenkins or Denis Villeneuve really have much a shot of upsetting, but I doubt either has the capability.
Peter J. Patrick: Eveyone else has gone ga ga over La La, so there’s no reason not to expect the Directors Guild to follow suit and give their award to Damien Chazelle. If there’s an upset, I would expect Barry Jenkins to be the recipient for Moonlight.
Tripp Burton: No matter what happens in the Best Picture race, it is seeming more and more like Hollywood wunderkind Chazelle will be picking up the Best Director award for his sprawling musical. Anything else will be an upset.
Thomas LaTourette: Two directors on their second and third films are battling for this award. I think it will go to Damien Chazelle for La La Land. Not only did he rejuvenate the original motion picture musical, he also made a box office success. That will be noted and awarded by the guild. His closest competition comes from Barry Jenkins whose more personal Moonlight has been an indie darling. I think it will go to the film that has done better at the box office.

Best First Feature

Garth Davis – Lion (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Kelly Fremon Craig – The Edge of Seventeen (RU:Tripp)
Tim Miller – Deadpool (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation
Dan Trachtenberg – 10 Cloverfield Lane

Wesley Lovell: Garth Davis wasn’t nominated for the Oscar, but he was nominated for the main directing prize. If he’s good enough to play with the big boys, the small potatoes should be no problem.
Peter J. Patrick: Davis should be an easy victor for Lion. If there is an upset, it’s as likely to be Tim Miller for the box-office hit Deadpool as well as anyone.
Tripp Burton: Garth Davis is nominated both here and in Best Director, so you have to consider him the overwhelming favorite. I don’t know if any of the others can catch up.
Thomas LaTourette: This was difficult to decide. I adored Deadpool and could easily see it winning. But with Garth Davis being the first double nominee for both Best Director and Best First Feature, I would think he stands the better chance of winning here.

Best Documentary Director

Otto Bell – The Eagle Huntress
Ezra Edelman – O.J.: Made in America (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Josh Kriegman & Elyse Steinberg – Weiner (RU:Tripp)
Raoul Peck – I Am Not Your Negro (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Roger Ross Williams – Life, Animated

Wesley Lovell: It’s the documentary of the year and this group is sure to recognize that. O.J.: Made in America should pull out an easy win, but any of the others could upset if there is an upset.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t see this one going to anyone other than Ezra Edelman, the director of the mammoth O.J.: Made in America. If they released vote totals I would think that Raoul Peck would come in second for I Am Not Your Negro.
Tripp Burton: At this point, it is hard to vote against O.J., which has seemed to sweep every documentary award so far. That said, this might be the first place where the question of whether it is a film or TV show plays out. If so, look for audience favorite Weiner to sneak in to a win.
Thomas LaTourette: O.J. has the most press and should win. Without the competition from Ava DuVernay, Raoul Peck’s I Am Not Your Negro would be the closest competition.