For our third Rundown article, we take a glimpse into the competition for one of the four acting categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that goes great with today.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel – Lion
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Runner-Up Predictions

• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Dev Patel – Lion (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: With the one impediment to his win out of the way (SAG), Mahershala Ali has smooth sailing to the Oscar ceremony. His only real competition is from veteran Jeff Bridges, which could rep his film’s only victory. Hedges is too young and Michael Shannon is his film’s only nomination. Dev Patel could also ride Lion support to a win, but from all accounts, he’s not the real discovery of the film.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no reason to think that Ali, who has won the brunt of the precursors for Moonlight, will fail to follow through with a win from the Academy. However, a win by one of three other nominees wouldn’t surprise me. Jeff Bridges gives a career high performance in Hell and High Water. Had he not been a previous winner, he’d probably be the frontrunner, but that’s not the case. Lucas Hedges could pull off a Timothy Hutton-style win for his grieving young man in Manchester by the Sea, but considering his lack of major wins thus far, it’s a bit of a leap to expect that. Dev Patel, who has also lacked major wins this year, seems to me to have a better shot in a film that is only now coming into its own at the multiplexes.
Tripp Burton: Mahershala Ali has won both the Globe and the SAG Award, as well as a slew of critics awards. The fact that he is one of the most assured ways of acknowledging Moonlight, as well as the fact that no one seems to be challenging him, makes it seem like he will easily parlay that into an Oscar win. Jeff Bridges could pick up some career points for Hell or High Water, and he is an actor most wouldn’t complain about having two Oscars, and is the only possible runner-up I see.
Thomas La Tourrette: Mahershala Ali has won the most precursor awards for his role as the drug dealer who helps raise a young boy in Moonlight. The one major upset was the Golden Globe that went to someone who ended up not nominated for an Oscar, so he should have no problems winning here. His nomination was probably helped some by the #OscarsSoWhite campaign, but he created a strong character out of what could have been a stock figure. His absence after the first third of the movie is felt as he created such a rich character. His strongest competition comes from old pro Jeff Bridges playing a lawman nearing retirement in Hell or High Water. However with one Oscar win already, I do not think the Academy is ready to give him another award. And I just do not see any of the other nominees making that much of a play for the Oscar. Ali should win easily, though I also said that of the Golden Globes, so one can never know for sure.

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