And here we have it, our final predictions before the Oscar nominations tomorrow morning. Our contributors have put a lot of time and effort into their selections and their commentary.

Looking over our lists, it’s notable to see that we share 9 films in common in the Best Picture race while nearly all of the other categories match three or four positions. The exceptions to this are Production Design, Costume Design, and the documentary and short film categories. It shows just how volatile these categories are to predictions. Makeup & Hairstyling only has one film that we perfectly match on.

The year should be most fascinating in terms of how we all saw the race. Does the unity on 9 titles mean nine Best Picture nominees? or is the weakest of those nine, Fences, not going to make it. Our Best Picture set were ranked in the order we think they are likely to be nominated with ten being highest and one lowest. We are fairly unified in our top three choices there, but the rest are less certain, but no less possible.

We hope that our predictions help you with your own and we will see you on the other side of the nominations with our first winner predictions in all categories.

KEY:

Best Picture

• (40) La La Land (10 T) (10 T) (10 T) (10 O)
• (35) Moonlight (9 T) (8 T) (9 T) (9 O)
• (33) Manchester By the Sea (8 O) (9 O) (8 O) (8 T)
• (28) Arrival (7 N) (7 T) (7 T) (7 N)
• (20) Hell or High Water (5 D) (4 F) [New] (6 D) (5 D)
• (20) Lion (6 D) (6 T) (2 T) (6 O)
• (14) Hacksaw Ridge (4 D) (3 D) (3 D) (4 D)
• (13) Hidden Figures (3 F) (2 D) (5 F) [New] (3 )
• (8) Fences (1 O) (1 F) (4 D) (2 O)
• (5) Loving (5 O)
• (3) Silence (2 O) (1 O)
• (1) Nocturnal Animals (1 F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I see the likelihood of an eight-nominee slate, possibly less. I believe that the preponderance of votes will go to La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight, with Arrival, and Lion securing the guaranteed five slots. Beyond that, there won’t be much room to hit 10%, so it’s possible we could end up with sixth with Hell or High Water taking that slot. If it extends to seven, it’s between Hacksaw Ridge and late-surging Hidden Figures. I give the edge to Mel Gibson’s religious war drama, but I suspect Hidden Figures will have plenty of adherents to make it in, thus eight. Silence, if it got seen by enough people and touched enough mind (or with enough fans of Martin Scorsese), coming in nine if there are nine, and Fences holding on despite its late-season crash, if there’s ten.
Peter J. Patrick: This is one of those years in which there is a lot of consensus, so I suspect most of these will make the cut of 8 or 9. The most vulnerable seems to be Loving, but I’m betting against the odds on this one.
Tripp Burton: This might be the most wide-open race since the expanded ballot, at least in terms of the lower tier of nominees. There are four films that have cruised through almost all the industry precursors and are locked in here: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, and Arrival. Hell or High Water has surprised a lot of people by popping up more than expected and should be a near-lock, as should early favorite Fences. After those six, things get interesting. Hidden Figures, a surprise box office smash, has come on strong in the last few weeks and will probably over perform where a lot of us expect it. Hacksaw Ridge, the biggest surprise player of the season for me, seems to have lost some steam in the last few weeks, but along with Lion, is still in the mix for a good morning. The question remains how many slots there will be. My guess is nine, a high number, with all the major contenders finding their way in.
Thomas LaTourrette: La La Land has had a spot for sure for ages. Moonlight and Manchester also seem safe. Arrival and Lion do as well. Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures look to make up the final eight spots. If there are 9 or 10 nominations, then it gets interesting. Fences could take a spot, having both a SAG cast award and PGA nom. Nocturnal Animals also seems to be finding its way into some top ten slots. A bizarre but welcome addition would be Deadpool, having snagged a PGA nom, but that seems unlikely, but it would be great if it happened. Silence, Jackie, and Sully do not appear likely to pull off a nomination, even though they were all ones I had in here earlier. I would think Fences would be the most likely if it goes to 9 noms and Nocturnal Animals if it goes to ten.

Best Animated Feature

• Finding Dory (PP F) (TB O)
• Kubo and the Two Strings (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moana (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• My Life as a Zucchini (WL D) (TL N)
• The Red Turtle (WL N) (PP D) (TB D) (TL O)
• Zootopia (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Three of these films are guaranteed. Kubo, Moana, and Zootopia. I never underestimate Disney/Pixar, but they have so far only yielded one nomination for a sequel and that was Toy Story 2. GKids, on the other hand, has regularly snatched slots from bigger groups, which is why I suspect The Red Turtle is a safe bet for slot four. Slot five, on the other hand, could go to any one of a number of films. Currently, I’m leaning towards My Life As a Zucchini, but it could just as easily be that third Disney/Pixar, Finding Nemo, or perhaps The Little Prince, Sing, Your Name., or Kung Fu Panda 3. A dark horse could also be the box office success The Secret Life of Pets.
Peter J. Patrick: Three from Disney and one each from Laika and Studio Ghibli seems about right.
Tripp Burton: Disney has had a really good year, and that could pay off with three nominations here, for Zootopia, Moana, and the Pixar film Finding Dory. Kubo and the Two Strings is the critics darling of the year and should be safe for a nomination. This branch likes to go more obscure sometimes, so I think the praised Studio Ghibli film The Red Turtle will also make its way into the lineup, instead of box office hits like Sing or The Secret Life of Pets.
Thomas LaTourrette: Zootopia has had the top spot since it opened. Laika’s Kubo also appears set, and will give it a run for the Oscar. Disney’s second feature Moana also seems likely to land a nom, being fresh in everyone’s minds. I would give the last two spots to the independent films My Life as a Zucchini and The Red Turtle. I think that Pixar will not make the race with Finding Dory, though they have done well in this category over the years. The little seen Your Name with both Annie and PGA noms is a possibility to sneak in, and its chances are better than either April and the Extraordinary World, Miss Hokusai, or The Little Prince for knocking a better known film out of the top five.

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL O)
• Garth Davis – Lion (WL F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (WL T) (PP N) (TB T) (TL N)
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) (PP O) (TB F) [New] (TL N)
• David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• Denis Villeneuve – Arrival (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB D) (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The three films most assured of Best Picture nominations are also the most likely to earn Best Director nominations: Damien Chazelle, Kenneth Lonergan, and Barry Jenkins. Beyond that, I suspect that the DGA list is the most instructive, meaning Denis Villeneuve and Garth Davis making the final list. I do, however, see the frequency of the directors branch picking up obscure or unexpected choices, making David Mackenzie, Theodore Melfi, and Pablo Larrain as possibilities. Yet, if there’s a breakthrough to a fifth slot, possibly knocking Oscar bridesmaid Villeneuve out of the running, it could be a veteran director, both past winners, Martin Scorsese or Mel Gibson.
Peter J. Patrick: I would be surprised if any except Mackenzie failed to make the cut.
Tripp Burton: The big three of the season (La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea) all seem safe to repeat here, although I have a hunch that Lonergan might be weaker than we think he is here. Denis Villeneuve has DGA and BAFTA nominations and should be nominated here for the biggest of all the contenders. Garth Davis had the fifth DGA nomination, but the DGA and AMPAS rarely line-up, and the grittier work of David MacKenzie might sneak in instead.
Thomas LaTourrette: I am going with the five DGA nominees to repeat here. La La Land’s Chazelle and Moonlight’s Jenkins have been splitting the precursor awards. Manchester’s Lonergan and Arrival’s Villeneuve appear likely to join them. I am less certain of Lion’s Davis taking a spot, but at present that seems more likely than the directors of Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, or Nocturnal Animals taking a spot. Perhaps the latter’s Tom Ford stands the best chance of doing that, after landing BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations, but I am still uncertain of that. Both Martin Scorsese for Silence and Clint Eastwood for Sully appear to be out of the running.

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester By the Sea (WL T) (PP O) (TB O) (TL T)
• Joel Edgerton – Loving (PP O)
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (WL D) (PP D) (TB D) (TL D)
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land (WL T) (PP D) (TB T) (TL T)
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic (WL D) (TB D) (TL F) [New]
• Denzel Washington – Fences (WL O) (PP N) (TB N) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Casey Affleck is the only name I think is rock solid in this list. Ryan Gosling and Andrew Garfield have enough precursor support to suggest they’ll be there. Denzel Washington would be a surprise omission and might cause an outcry, but strangely, I think past nominee Viggo Mortensen, who emerged from nowhere to become a competitor could be there with Washington in the fourth-fifth slots. Of course, early contender Joel Edgerton could reemerge or precursor winner Adam Driver, but if Nocturnal Animals does better than expected, the often unfairly ignored Jake Gyllenhaal could make the list.
Peter J. Patrick: Once again, Loving seems to be the vulnerable one. The others are all extremely likely.
Tripp Burton: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, and Mortensen all have the magic triumvirate of Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations, although as Jake Gyllenhaal and Tom Hanks can tell you that doesn’t always guarantee you an Oscar nod. As for the fifth slot, Denzel Washington seems like a safe bet (even safer than Garfield, Gosling, and Mortensen), and if someone were to lose out, look for Joel Edgerton or, ironically, Jake Gyllenhaal, to pop up.
Thomas LaTourrette: Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington are guaranteed spots here, and are the two that will battle it out for the Oscar. Ryan Gosling’s musical turn in La La Land should easily turn into a nom as well. Andrew Garfield will probably be nominated for Hacksaw Ridge, though I think he was better in Silence. Adam Driver is getting great reviews for the just released Paterson, but will likely lose the last spot to Viggo Mortenson for Captain Fantastic. The real wild card is Jake Gyllenhaal who could sneak in on a wave of a support for Nocturnal Animals.

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Arrival (WL N) (PP F) (TB T) (TL N)
• Isabelle Huppert – Elle (WL D) (PP D) (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Ruth Negga – Loving (PP O)
• Natalie Portman – Jackie (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Emma Stone – La La Land (WL O) (PP T) (TB N) (TL T)
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins (WL D) (TB F) (TL D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Natalie Portman and Emma Stone are the only locks. I’d also be surprised if Amy Adams didn’t make the list. That leaves two spots. Isabelle Huppert has had strong support all season and could be recognized by the same folk who honored Emmanuelle Riva four years ago could recognize the even more famous French legend Huppert. Before Huppert, two other actresses were considered safe bets, Ruth Negga and Annette Bening. Bening has been trying for years and might have had some success had another actress not reared her oft-nominated head. Meryl Streep has suddenly become something of a force in this category in spite of her film flopping at the box office. It’s likely she gets the fifth slot over Bening or they could both get in with Adams or Huppert making a surprise, unexpected exit.
Peter J. Patrick: I know it’s foolish to bet against Meryl Streep, but I’m doing it yet again.
Tripp Burton: This is turning out to be one of the most interesting categories this year. Adams, Portman, Stone, and Streep all have Globe, BAFTA, and SAG nominations. Emily Blunt has surprised us twice with major nominations, while Isabelle Huppert won the Globe in a surprising twist. Throw in Globe nominees like Annette Bening and Ruth Negga, plus previous nominee Taraji P. Henson in the newly surging Hidden Figures, and you have one of the most wide-open races in years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those names on the list, or to see anyone (except perhaps Emma Stone) left off the list.
Thomas LaTourrette: Emma Stone and Natalie Portman have been the frontrunners in this category for a long time and both should easily score nominations. Amy Adams has been building up support for her work in Arrival and will probably land her sixth Oscar nomination, though she will probably also have her sixth loss from it as well. The Golden Globes did change my thinking for the last two spots. With her unexpected win for Elle, Isabelle Huppert now appears likely to be nominated. And with her strong speech, Meryl Streep may have assured a spot and could receive her 20th nomination. Annette Bening will likely be passed over, as will Ruth Negga who was the heart of Loving. The one person who might upset things is SAG and BAFTA nominated Emily Blunt, though I think that unlikely. The Academy voters could also place Viola Davis in this category which would make for a most interesting race.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (WL N) (PP T) (TB N) (TL T)
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (WL N) (PP T) (TB N) (TL T)
• Kyle Chandler – Manchester by the Sea (PP F) [New]
• Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins (WL D) (TB T) (TL D)
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea (WL D) (PP O) (TB D)
• Dev Patel – Lion (WL D) (PP N) (TB D) (TL N)
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Mahershala Ali and Dev Patel are the lone locks. Jeff Bridges, by benefit of being the only major acting legend on the docket, is a close third. The remaining two slots are a free-for-all between Lucas Hedges, Hugh Grant, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Michael Shannon, Ben Foster, and outside contenders Ralph Fiennes and Issei Ogata. Grant has had a very good year and thanks tot he surge for Florence Foster Jekins, his positioning is perfect for his first nomination. The fifth slot is the one I’m not sure about. Aaron Taylor-Johnson winning at the Golden Globes might have given him enough of a boost, especially if there’s a lot of love for Nocturnal Animals, but I wonder if it might not be a Nightcrawler kind of blip that seems plausible, but is ultimately not going to happen. Ben Foster could benefit from Hell or High Water love, but I’m currently leaning toward Hedges for the simple reason that his film is a guaranteed Best Picture nominee and the Academy does love young stars emerging.
Peter J. Patrick: Ali, Bridges, and Patel seem pretty much set. Hedges is borderline likely, but should be a shoo-in. Chandler is my wild card.
Tripp Burton: Mahershala Ali, Jeff Bridges, and Hugh Grant are all names we have been hearing in this race for months, and none of them have missed a beat this awards season. Dev Patel has surprisingly been a constant presence in voting as well. For the fifth slot, I’m predicting that Lucas Hedges manages to ride the waves of Manchester by the Sea, although Aaron Taylor-Johnson has found a way of sneaking into these lineups more often than not.
Thomas LaTourrette: Mahershala Ali should easily pull off a nomination as he has by far the most precursor awards. Old timer Jeff Bridges looks to score yet another nom as well. Dev Patel and Hugh Grant look to receive their first nominations too. On the strength of his SAG nomination, I had been holding the final spot for Lucas Hedges from Manchester by the Sea. But after the BAFTA nomination and Golden Globe win, I think it will go to Aaron Taylor-Johnson from Nocturnal Animals.

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis – Fences (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL T)
• Nicole Kidman – Lion (WL N) (PP F) [New] (TL T)
• Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures (TB F) [New]
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (WL T) (PP D) (TB D) (TL D)
• Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea (WL D) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Viola Davis is a guarantee. Michelle Williams is a fairly safe bet, as are Nicole Kidman and Naomie Harris. The fifth slot seems to be down to Octavia Spencer, Greta Gerwig, Lily Gladstone, Janelle Monae, and veteran Judy Davis. Spencer seems the most likely thanks to her past win and her film’s huge support. That means Monae could make a surprise double nomination in the category, but she’d have to bump out Harris, or in a complete shock, Williams or Kidman.
Peter J. Patrick: This category is pretty much set.
Tripp Burton: This has been one of the most consistent categories throughout awards season, which means that it is ripe for surprises come nomination morning. Davis, Harris, Kidman, and Williams are all solid picks who have run the board so far. Octavia Spencer has Globe and SAG nominations for a movie that has only gotten more popular since. I’m predicting that we get an upset here, and that Hidden Figures brings along Janelle Monae instead of Nicole Kidman.
Thomas LaTourrette: Providing that the Academy keeps her in the category that she is running in, Viola Davis seems assured of a nomination and a win here. Michelle Williams, Nicole Kidman, and Naomie Harris all should easily claim a nom as well. Octavia Spencer should easily best her lesser known costar Janelle Monae for the fifth spot. At this point, I do not really see anyone else making a play for a nomination here.

Best Original Screenplay

• Captain Fantastic (PP D) (TL F) [New]
• Hell or High Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB D) (TL D)
• Jackie (WL N) (PP D)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lobster (WL D) (TL D)
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Toni Erdmann (TB F) [New]
• Zootopia (TB F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: It would be a scandal if La La Land or Manchester by the Sea didn’t get nominated. Best Picture contender Hell or High Water is also a fairly solid bet. With its surprising strength, The Lobster is likely in fourth. Fifth will be a fight between Jackie, 20th Century Women, Hail, Caesar!, and Zootopia. The Disney film would continue a long stretch of such nominations, but I suspect the well researched Jackie may ultimately win out, but ignoring the Coens could be folly. Of course, if Bening is a nominate for Best Actress, it wouldn’t be a surprise to find 20th Century Women on the list.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m only sure about La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, but the others have as good a shot as anything.
Tripp Burton: This is one of the harder categories this year because Moonlight and Loving, both of which have picked up precursors in this category, are in the Adapted category for the Oscars. Manchester by the Sea, La La Land, and Hell or High Water are high profile nominees that should pick up a citation here, leaving two slots without Best Picture candidates to fill them. BAFTA nominated I, Daniel Blake, which has gotten zero attention on this side of the pond. So we are left with films like Jackie, Captain Fantastic, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women, all of which are still competing for acting nominations, along with the quirky yet forgotten The Lobster. My hunch is that the originality of Foreign Film frontrunner Toni Erdmann gets it a nomination, along with the Animated Feature frontrunner Zootopia.
Thomas LaTourrette: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Hell or High Water all seem guaranteed to have a spot here, helped by their BAFTA and Writers Guild nominations. The indie darling The Lobster will likely get a nomination too, which leaves Captain Fantastic and Jackie battling for the final spot. Personally I would lean towards Jackie, but I think the consensus is building towards Captain Fantastic.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival (WL D) (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
• Fences (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (PP D)
• Hidden Figures (WL F) [New] (PP D) (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Lion (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP D) (TB D) (TL D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: You ignore Moonlight at your own risk while Fences and Arrival have been mainstays all season. Lion‘s Harvey Weinstein connection will help it out, especially since it seems to be an audience pleaser. Fifth, I suspect, will go to the late-breaking Hidden Figures over the likes of Silence, Nocturnal Animals, Loving, and Hacksaw Ridge.
Peter J. Patrick: Moonlight has to be the overwhelming favorite here, but the others are all strong candidates.
Tripp Burton: Another overcrowded field where you have to think about what is going to be left off more than what is nominated. Moonlight seems like the only solid bet in this category, which a lot of other candidates who have something against them: Arrival is more visual than its competitors, Fences is a stage adaptation that changes little from stage to screen, Loving is quickly losing steam, Deadpool is WGA-nominated but is still a superhero movie, Hacksaw Ridge is being praised as a triumph of directing not writing, and Nocturnal Animals could be off-putting to a lot of voters. That leaves Hidden Figures and Lion both solid choices to make headway here, with two other random nominees from the above list to fill things out.
Thomas LaTourrette: Moonlight and Arrival seem the most assured nominees. Fences, Hidden Figures, and Lion appear most likely to be the films to finish out the category. Nocturnal Animals is a possibility to knock one of them out, but that would seem likely only if the film pulls off nominations in a number of different categories. The Writers Guild surprised a number of people with a nom for Deadpool, but that seems less likely to happen here.

Best Original Score

• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find It (TB O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (TL O)
• Jackie (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Nocturnal Animals (WL O)
• Rogue One (PP O) (TB O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I’m largely at a loss here, mainly because one of the strongest performers of the season was Arrival, and it’s ineligible. La La Land is a guarantee and, in spite of its failure to catch on all season, Jackie‘s score has been one of the most consistently praised outside of star Natalie Portman. Beyond that, it’s pure guess work using the BAFTA list as a guide. Lion and Moonlight are decent possibilities, but that fifth slot is the puzzler. I’m giving the edge to Nocturnal Animals just because it’s a great score. Hidden Figures, Zootopia, Moana and others could compete, or it could be something that I hadn’t even considered before.
Peter J. Patrick: This one will be La La Land and four others which I’m thinking will be the other four I’ve listed.
Tripp Burton: I should admit that I am lost as to what is going to happen with this category. A lot of the most talked about scores this year are either ineligible (Arrival, Manchester by the Sea) or seem to bring out a very “love-it-or-hate-it” attitude from listeners (Jackie, Nocturnal Animals). La La Land seems like the most assured thing, with Moonlight probably picking up another nomination here too. Michael Giacchino should be up there, but will it be for Rogue One or Zootopia? Can John Williams get another nomination for a movie off everyone’s radar? I’m making some guesses here, but this is more up in the air than any other category.
Thomas LaTourrette: La La Land has won the most precursor awards and should easily score a nomination. Jackie, Moonlight, and Lion also seem likely to be nominated. The last spot could go to a number of films, with none having a strong hold on it. On can never count out John Williams, so The BFG might be in. And Rogue One is the first Star Wars film scored by someone else, but Michael Giacchino is a possibility too. Hidden Figures has the bigger name associated with it as Pharrell Williams was one of the writers, but I think it might go to Hacksaw Ridge. I do hope the overdone score of Nocturnal Animals is not nominated as I found it more annoying than eerie.

Best Original Song

• “Audition” – La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• “City of Stars” – La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• “Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street (TB O)
• “Flicker” – Audrie & Daisy (TB O)
• “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• “Runnin” – Hidden Figures (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The two tracks from La La Land are assured. Justin Timberlake’s tune from Trolls and Lin Manuel-Miranda’s track song from Moana are also solid possibilities. The fifth spot depends on who’s listening. Hidden Figures could easily take the spot, as could songs from Sing, Sing Street, Miss Sharon Jones, Gold, Rules Don’t Apply, and Lion. It could also be something completely out of left field.
Peter J. Patrick: La La Land is limited by the rules to have just two nominees, either of which could win. The others are fill-ins, or so it seems at the moment.
Tripp Burton: The Oscars have had a lot of surprises in the last few years with this category, nominating obscure choices, not filling out a full top five, and even unnominating a nominee. You have to imagine that La La Land will pick up at least one nomination, and that everyone’s newfound favorite Lin-Manuel Miranda will get his shot at an Oscar for Moana. After that it becomes a mix of pop stars, rock legends, and Hollywood composers. John Carney’s last two films (Once, Begin Again) have led to Best Song nominations, so I feel like Sing Street will continue that trend. That leaves one slot left, and it could go to anyone. I’ll go with the respected rocker Tori Amos for the obscure documentary, because that is the sort of thing the music branch does. Although if none of these get nominated, it would just be par for the course with the music branch.
Thomas LaTourrette: This is always a difficult category to predict as there are often a couple unexpected choices that get a nomination. La La Land looks likely to land two songs here, something that has not happened in a while. Broadway’s Lin-Manuel Miranda should score a nom for one of his songs from Moana. I am giving the last two spots to music stars, Justin Timberlake for the song from Trolls and Pharrell Williams for one of the songs from Hidden Figures. The musicals Sing and Sing Street could sneak in as well, or could a song from one of the documentaries which seems to happen with some regularity now.

Best Film Editing

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hell or High Water (TB O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: To be a Best Picture winner, you generally have to earn an editing nomination. Only a small number of films haven’t done so, including Birdman two years ago. However, La La Land and Moonlight seem assured while Manchester by the Sea seems to be running far behind, simply because it’s not a marvel of editing. Arrival could place simply for mixing so many elements together while the war scenes of Hacksaw Ridge seem like something this group would pick. Manchester by the Sea is likely fifth on the list, but could easily be displaced by something like Silence, Lion (I’m leaning towards this film coming in fifth simply because of its cross-cutting in time), Nocturnal Animals or Hell or High Water.
Peter J. Patrick: They tend to like films in which the editing is subtle, but not too subtle, which leads me to believe these will be the nominees.
Tripp Burton: Only one film in the past decade has gotten ACE and BAFTA Editing nominations and not shown up at the Oscars–Birdman–and that was a huge surprise come Oscar morning. That seems to bode well for four films: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Manchester by the Sea, and La La Land. For the fifth nominee, will it go to Best Picture contender Moonlight, or the popular bank heist film Hell or High Water, or something off the Best Picture list like Deadpool or Rogue One? I’m guessing Hell or High Water.
Thomas LaTourrette: La La Land, Arrival, and Moonlight should all easily get noms. Manchester by the Sea and Hacksaw Ridge are the most likely to join them.

Best Cinematography

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (PP O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Lion (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Always look to the ASC for guidance and you’ll probably get a lock on all five slots, if not close to it. La La Land, Moonlight, and Arrival have been consistent players with Lion having emerged late in the game. The fifth slot should end up with Silence, one of the few places the film showed up in the guild precursors. Hacksaw Ridge or Nocturnal Animals could place, but never count out legend Roger Deakins for Hail, Caesar!.
Peter J. Patrick: This is one of two categories in which I think early favorite Silence has a chance. The others are all strong candidates as well.
Tripp Burton: There are a lot of big contenders this year that also happen to be visually splendid — Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight, Lion — which should bring them an Oscar nomination along with their ASC nominations. The big questions is whether Silence, which is being forgotten in a lot of Oscar races, can still manage a nomination here or whether something else will sneak in.
Thomas LaTourrette: The gorgeous work of La La Land should score a nomination. Arrival and Moonlight also seem assured of ones as well. I do hope the stunning work in Silence is rewarded as well. That leaves Jackie, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, and Hacksaw Ridge battling for the final spot. Nocturnal Animals has the BAFTA nom, but I think that the Academy is more likely to stay with the guild nominee of Lion.

Best Production Design

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hail, Caesar! (WL O) (TB O)
• Hidden Figures (WL O) (TB O)
• Jackie (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Rules Don’t Apply (PP O)
• Silence (PP O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The ADG has fifteen nominations and while they don’t always show up, most of them do. I suspect Fantastic Beasts, La La Land, and Arrival are fairly solid choices. Hail, Caesar! and Hidden Figures are decent options for the fourth anf fifth slots, but those could just as easily go to Jackie, Silence, or another period film.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the other category in which I think Silence has a shot, but it’s a tough category to predict.
Tripp Burton: There are a surprising number of candidates in this category, and as always, it is hard to decide if the category will be heavier on Oscar contenders or on films outside the other races with great art direction. I picked five, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see five different films on this list (Cafe Society, Doctor Strange, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Nocturnal Animals).
Thomas LaTourrette: La La Land and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them both should score a nom. Even without a guild nomination, I expect Arrival to join the group. Jackie could get in as well. This leaves the good work of Silence, Passengers, Doctor Strange, Nocturnal Animals, Hail, Caesar!, and The Handmaiden battling it out for the final spot. I will go with Silence, though I am not really sure if it has the support to get in.

Best Costume Design

• Allied (PP O) (TL O)
• The Dressmaker (WL O) (PP O)
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Florence Foster Jenkins (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hail, Caesar! (WL O)
• Jackie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• La La Land (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Silence (TB O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This category often goes hand-in-hand with Production Design, but I sense some hefty divergence this year since La La Land and Arrival aren’t really costume-friendly films. Fantastic Beasts is a good possibility as is Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie with The Dressmaker, a costumers dream, and Hail Caesar!‘s Old Hollywood styles making a godo play for the final slots. This is also a category where I don’t see any locks and few good bets as it seems to be all over the place. Kubo and the Two Strigns earned a surprise CDG nomination and would be a compelling and first-of-its-kind selection in the category, but I suspect it won’t eventually place.
Peter J. Patrick: The Dressmaker is oddly the least discussed, oddly because it’s all about dressmaking, both good and bad.
Tripp Burton: There are three films I would be shocked not to find on this list Tuesday morning: Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land. Outside of that, it seems like anyone’s game.
Thomas LaTourrette: Great period work for Allied, Fantastic Beasts, Florence Foster Jenkins, and Jackie should get all of them a nomination. They are likely to be joined by the contemporary work of La La Land.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Deadpool (PP O) (TB O)
• The Dressmaker (PP O)
• Florence Foster Jenkins (TB O) (TL O)
• A Man Called Ove (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Star Trek: Beyond (WL O) (TL O)
• Suicide Squad (WL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: As usual, the makeup branch has made an odd bunch of selections. Star Trek: Beyond has everything this group usually looks for, so it’s probably safe. A Man Called Ove follows a long list of foreign entries in this category and features the oft-loved old age makeup. Beyond these two films, you have two with heavy prosthetic work and three with hefty hair design work. I currently lean towards Suicide Squad because there’s more obvious stuff there, but Deadpool has burn makeup to help while Florence Foster Jenkins could be a surprise third nominee. Hail, Caesar! and The Dressmaker are the absolute least likely.
Peter J. Patrick: Three very different styles will make this an interesting race to watch.
Tripp Burton: I think there are two locks in this category: Deadpool and Florence Foster Jenkins. Outside of that, any of the other short-listed films could emerge as a nominee. My guess is it is between Star Trek: Beyond (the first film won this category in 2009) and A Man Called Ove (repeating the surprise nomination from the same team last year for The 100-Year-Old Man…).
Thomas LaTourrette: Florence Foster Jenkins should pull off a nomination for the period hairstyling. A Man Called Ove will likely be nominated as the Academy often adds a foreign film into the mix. This leaves Deadpool and Star Trek: Beyond battling for the final spot. I will give it to Star Trek simply because there is more of it used than in Deadpool.

Best Sound Mixing

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Deepwater Horizon (TL O)
• Doctor Strange (WL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Patriots Day (PP O)
• Rogue One (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sully (TB O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I’ll admit to being stymied by this category this year. Without the Sound Editors selections, it’s hard to see the cross-over potential there. However, the Cinema Audio Society did nominate and their selections are a heavy influence here. La La Land is certain while Rogue One is a fairly strong competitor. Hacksaw Ridge is also a strong possibility with the remaining two slots difficult picks. Doctor Strange benefits from plenty of effects while Arrival owes everything to its soundscape. Sully, Deepwater Horizon, and Lion are also possibilities, as are many others.
Peter J. Patrick: They like ’em loud!
Tripp Burton: This category likes musicals, war films, and recently Best Picture contenders. That should make the path easy here for films like La La Land, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, and Rogue One. It leaves a fifth slot out there, and I think Sully might surprise us and squeak ahead of films like Deepwater Horizon, The Jungle Book, and Doctor Strange.
Thomas LaTourrette: La La Land and Hacksaw Ridge are the strongest two films here. Rogue One and Arrival also seem poised to join the finalists. I will give the last spot to Deepwater Horizon, though it faces stiff competition from Doctor Strange and Sully.

Best Sound Editing

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Deepwater Horizon (TB O) (TL O)
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL O)
• Hacksaw Ridge (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Jungle Book (WL O) (TB O)
• La La Land (PP O) (TL O)
• Rogue One (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sully (PP O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I had to use the Cinema Audio Society selections as a guide since the Motion Picture Sound Editors don’t announce until its too late to be a help. Since La La Land doesn’t have a lot of effects work in it, it is probably out of the running. Arrival had to invent a lot of effects, so it’s probably safe. Hacksaw Ridge is a war movie and this group loves war movies. Rogue One also had to create a lot of effects, which probably means it’s a solid possibility. The same could be said for Doctor Strange. Rounding out the list, I suspect, is Sully, which has a long crash sequence to bolster its chances and this group tends to love Clint Eastwood pics. Those aren’t the only ones on deck as Patriots Day, Deepwater Horizon, and Fantastic Beasts are all decent prospects thanks to vast sound effects requirements.
Peter J. Patrick: They like imposing sound effects as well.
Tripp Burton: I never quite know where this category is going to go, but Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge seem like sure bets to me.
Thomas LaTourrette: Once again Hacksaw Ridge and La La Land are the most likely nominees. Rogue One and Arrival should also repeat from the sound mixing field. The categories are not always in sync, but I could see Deepwater Horizon taking the final spot over Sully for the same set of nominees.

Best Visual Effects

• Arrival (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The BFG (PP D)
• Captain America: Civil War (PP O)
• Doctor Strange (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (WL O) (TB O) (TL F) [New]
• The Jungle Book (WL D) (TB O) (TL O)
• Rogue One (WL O) (PP D) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The Jungle Book is the lone lock (or near lock) in this category. Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed. Rogue One has the Star Wars tradition to uphold while Doctor Strange had a ton of effects work on display. Arrival is a bit more subtle, but should also make a placement here. That fifth slot could go to any of the rest of the films. I lean towards Fantastic Beasts because there’s a lot on display in the film, but a surprise appearance by Kubo and the Two Strings would be fascinating and welcome. Passengers‘ controversy and box office collapse probably kills its chances while Deepwater Horizon could be spoiler. I suspect that Captain America and The BFG just don’t have enough to compete with the others.
Peter J. Patrick: We shall see what we shall see.
Tripp Burton: Last year gave us one of the biggest surprises in this category’s history twice, first nominating Ex Machina and then giving it the Oscar over a lot of bigger budget competition. This year, I don’t see us getting that big of a surprise. It seems to me like there are five solid contenders here, and this is the category I’m most sure of. So that means that there will be a big surprise, right?
Thomas LaTourrette: The Jungle Book where everything but Mowgli was created through visual effects is guaranteed a nomination. The created worlds of Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts, and Rogue One should join it. I will guess the mix of the contemporary world visited by aliens in Arrival will take the final spot.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Land of Mine (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• A Man Called Ove (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• My Life as a Zucchini (PP O) (TL O)
• Paradise (WL O) (TB O)
• The Salesman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Tanna (PP O)
• Toni Erdmann (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This group is odd. It’s impossible to tell sometimes where their minds will go. Based on descriptions alone, A Man Called Ove, Land of Mine, The Salesman, and Paradise all seem like strong possibilities, with Toni Erdmann benefitting from the bountiful amount of precursor recognition. THat doesn’t mean the other four films don’t have a chance, with this group, anything is possible.
Peter J. Patrick: Aside from Toni Erdmann, anything is likely to happen in this category.
Tripp Burton: There are three films I can’t imagine not making the final five here: critics darling Toni Erdmann, previous winner Asghar Farhadi’s The Salesman, and audience favorite A Man Called Ove. Outside of that it is anyone’s guess. I’ll go with the World War II-set Land of Mine and Paradise.
Thomas LaTourrette: Toni Erdmann and The Salesman should be safe nominees, but one never knows in this category. A Man Called Ove has been an audience favorite so it could score a nom as well. The animated My Life as a Zucchini could make an interesting choice. And for no strong reason I will list Land of Mine over The King’s Choice for the final spot. Since the Academy often makes some strange choices, I could be very wrong with these.

Best Documentary Feature

• 13th (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Cameraperson (WL O) (TL O)
• Gleason (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Hooligan Sparrow (WL O)
• I Am Not Your Negro (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• The Ivory Game (TB O)
• Life, Animated (TB O)
• O.J.: Made in America (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Tower (PP O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: O.J.: Made in America is the only guarantee. I Am Not Your Negro also seems like a good possibility. Beyond that, things are wide open. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 13th on the list, nor would I be surprised by anything else. At this point, it’s all conjecture and I ultimately filled out the list with Cameraperson thanks to its precursor run and Hooligan Sparrow based solely on its subject matter, but sometimes this category is anyone’s guess.
Peter J. Patrick: O.J.: Made in America would seem to be the overwhelming favrotie in this category, but the others are strong contenders as well.
Tripp Burton: This category is stacked, and there are a lot of solid contenders. That means that most anything can happen with the nominations. Netflix has done well in this category recently, and the timely 13th and environmentally conscious The Ivory Game should make it to the final list. Same with O.J.: Made in America, easily the most discussed documentary of recent years. For the final two slots, I’m predicting two heart-warming stories of triumph: Gleason and Life, Animated. Don’t count out films like talked-about docs like Fire at Sea, Weiner, Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, or Zero Days from previous winner Alex Gibney.
Thomas LaTourrette: The eight hour O.J. documentary has won the most precursors and should likely score a nomination. Its length may keep it from a win, but it should place among the final five. Cameraperson, I Am Not Your Negro, and 13th seem likely to join it. I will go with Gleason for the final spot, but several others might easily replace it.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• 4.1 Miles (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Close Ties (PP O)
• Extremis (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Joe’s Violin (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Mute’s House (PP O) (TB O)
• The Other Side of Home (PP O)
• Watani: My Homeland (WL O) (TL O)
• The White Helmets (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I used to pick the short film categories based solely on titles. It worked, to an extent, but I always missed quite a few. I’ve been trying to find descriptions of the subject matters to see which better appeal to the Academy’s membership. Documentary shorts are a little easier to predict that way, but the other two categories not so much. For this one, the only short I feel confident about is The White Helmets and even that confidence is shaky. Beyond that, my selections are based entirely on how much the coverage of the shorts would appeal to Oscar voters.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea, but these titles sound like the most Oscar-friendly.
Tripp Burton: This has become an easier than usual category this year, if only because half of the shortlist is available to watch online in one form of another. The emotionally wrenching Extremis, The Mute’s House, and The White Helmets should all do well here, as well as the refugee tale 4.1 Miles. Joe’s Violin is a heart-warming tale that balances the pain of the other nominees out.
Thomas LaTourrette: I know little about these, but here are my choices.

Best Animated Short Film

• Blind Vashya (WL O) (TL O)
• Borrowed Time (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Happy End (PP O)
• The Head Vanishes (TB O) (TL O)
• Inner Workings (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Once Upon a Line (PP O)
• Pearl (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)
• Piper (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sous tes Doigts (TB O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Like I mentioned in Documenatry Short Subject, I try to pick based on premises. That’s why, apart from the two Disney/Pixar entries, the rest are really just guesses.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea about this category either, but these, too, sound Oscar-friendly.
Tripp Burton: Disney had two popular shorts this year, the beautiful Piper and the clever Inner Workings, and both should continue their hot streak in this category. Outside of that involves some guessing, but I’m guessing some films that hit topics this branch tends to like: old age (The Head Vanishes and Under Your Fingers) and loss (Borrowed Time).
Thomas LaTourrette: Pixar’s Piper and Disney’s Inner Workings should both get nominated as they have strong studio support. Pearl with its four Annie nominations also seems likely to score a nom. The Head Vanishes could sneak in as well. I will give the final spot to Pear Cider and Cigarettes over Borrowed Time and Blind Vaysha because it has the more interesting title.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Bon Voyage (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Le Femme et le TGV (WL O)
• Graffiti (PP O)
• Nocturne in Black (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy (TL O)
• Silent Nights (PP O) (TB O)
• Sing (WL O) (TL O)
• Timecode (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Way of Tea (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The final category on the list, is also one of the hardest to pick, especially when you can’t find what everything is about. Nocturne in Black is the only one that I feel fairly certain about, but with these categories, you never know for sure.
Peter J. Patrick: Pure guesswork on my part.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea, so lets go with the films about refugees (Bon Voyage) and skinheads (The Way of Tea). Add in Silent Nights, from a producer with five nominations in this category already, and Nocturne in Black, which won a Student Academy Award. I’ll also guess Timecode because it appears to be told in an innovative way, which can help with this category.
Thomas LaTourrette: Once again I know nothing about these, so I am pretty much just guessing.