May 6, 2016

Captain America: Civil War

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Captain America: The Winter Soldier became the first film without Iron Man to score an Oscar nomination and, along with X-Men: Days of Future Past, they were the first superhero films outside of Iron Man-featured films to get nominated. This could very well snag the same nod: Best Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: The film was a big enough success that it will likely end up as a contender for the sound and visual effects categories. Nowhere else is it likely to compete
Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. While the first Captain America film only topped $175 million, the sequel jumped to just over $250 million and that was without the rest of the Avengers cast in tow. This time, everyone’s there, so I expect it will be a big tally, though I’m hesitant to top the $400 million mark as The Avengers: Age of Ultron lost roughly $170 million of its predecessor’s tally.”
Box Office Results: $408.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] This is the franchise that can do no wrong. Although it’s titled Captain America, it is basically an Avengers film with plenty of cast members in evidence, that likely gave it a boost over its superior-in-every-way predecessor.

May 13, 2016

Darkness

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror in the summer months is a challenge and some distributors struggle to make a ton of money, like they would in the fall. However, this premise falls well within the accepted range of supernatural horror flicks, so it should do adequate business as a result.”
Box Office Results: $10.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Does anyone actually remember what the film was about? This seems like the kind of film that could have done well if it had been better advertised, which it wasn’t.

Kidnap

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. No advertising whatsoever so far. I suspect the film is about to be pushed to another weekend, but for some inexplicable reason hasn’t been yet.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: The film was pushed back to December 2, 2016

Money Monster

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Jodie Foster has earned some respect for her work behind the camera, but has never had a potential Oscar contender like this. If critics rally behind the film, it could be an early contender. However, if they are lukewarm, it’s like to fade into the background pretty quickly.”
Oscar Results: Being a box office flop and earning mediocre reviews from critics pretty much killed the film’s Oscar chances.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Jodie Foster only has three films as a director to her credit and those have all been box office weaklings. However, with Julia Roberts and George Clooney in tow, as well as a very topical event picture, I could see this one far outpacing my current predictions.”
Box Office Results: $41 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Jodie Foster hasn’t had much success at the box office when she’s behind the camera. With the cast and pedigree, it should have been a bigger success. Unfortunately, critics weren’t pleased and audience saw little of interest in it, in spite of its timely plot.

High-Rise (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The film’s odd look and plotting is sure to earn it attention from critics, but not enough to overcome the Academy’s reluctance to recognize weirdness.”
Oscar Results: The film is just to odd to be an Oscar contender.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s little to suggest this niche-targeted film will do much business at the specialty box office, but Tom Hiddleston might be able to pack in enough curious folks.”
Box Office Results: $0.346 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] I guess it’s difficult to find an audience for something as strange as this film. Tom Hiddleston is an excellent actor and the film looks like a blast, but it had a terrible release schedule and incredibly narrow advertising.

The Lobster (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. This is another film whose bizarre elements aren’t likely to go over well with Oscar voters.”
Oscar Results: While critics may have loved it, and audiences were more receptive than expected, it’s still a minor box office performer that’s too odd for Oscar voters.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Like it’s fellow limited releaser this weekend, The Lobster is a very strange movie and audiences aren’t likely to turn up in droves to watch it. However, decent notices may give it a subtle boost.”
Box Office Results: $8.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The concept piqued just enough interest to outperform most films of its type; however, it never managed to become the breakout success some thought it might.

May 20, 2016

The Angry Birds Movie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. This is just the kind of film the Academy’s animation branch tends to pass over for year-end awards. If competition is particularly fierce, and there’s every indication it will be, don’t expect to see it on the Oscar roster.”
Oscar Results: The Animated Feature category is jam-packed this year and for a film that wasn’t nearly as successful as expected, nor as acclaimed as it needed to be, the film will be an also-ran.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Although Angry Birds has been fading in terms of overall excitement, the film is sure to bring young children and adult fans to the theaters. How successful it is remains to be seen, but I suspect it will be a decent hit.”
Box Office Results: $107.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Animated films are almost a guaranteed moneymaker and this may have done well enough to merit a sequel, but for a film built around a hugely popular game (perhaps one that’s dwindled in popularity since its peak), it should have had a built-in audience. Not enough of one, it seems.

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Is this a sequel no one wanted or a sequel that everyone is clamoring for. The original was great fun, but will the premise wear off quickly. I suspect the turnout may be depressed from the original, since it only made $150 million, but with a dearth of big comedies so far, it might top my prediction and its predecessor if only by a little bit.”
Box Office Results: $55.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The first film was an unexpected success, meriting a sequel. The sequel was well received by critics, but couldn’t manage to shake off its seeming re-treaded concept and become a major box office player.

The Nice Guys

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The Academy tends to ignore comedy, even period comedy, so unless this is a huge hit and receives broad critical acclaim, I don’t see them going for it.”
Oscar Results: Had this been a runaway box office success, it might have been able to hold on until the end of the year for consideration. As it stands, the movie is likely to be forgotten by Oscar voters.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This period crime comedy could play well against so many dissimilar films in the marketplace, but is there really a big enough audience for this and are Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling really the pair to accomplish that?”
Box Office Results: $36.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] It may have been a pipe dream for this film to become a hit, but Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling just aren’t enough to sell a period comedy, one which was fairly well received.

May 27, 2016

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. The original film nabbed three Oscar nominations and won two of them. For this film to do that well, it has to be different enough from the original to pique the interests of the same voters or it isn’t likely to get the same consideration. Costume Design and Production Design are still both possibilities.”
Oscar Results: A disaster at the box office might be too much for the film to handle, but it could still manage to eke out design nominations, if it can topple the sequel’s predecessor’s director Tim Burton’s later-year release.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The original film was an unexpected hit and led to a string of Disney live-action adaptations that have all been strong box office performers. What works against the film is that the original is still the most successful, none of the others even made it to $250 million, and Tim Burton isn’t back for this one. It will still be an outsized hit, but I doubt it can come even remotely close to the original’s $334 million.”
Box Office Results: $77 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] How far the mighty have fallen. After the unparalleled success of its Burton-directed predecessor, it was expected to be a major box office hit, but audiences didn’t feel the need to check it out, whether because Burton wasn’t involved or because critics weren’t that keen on it as they were Alice in Wonderland and they weren’t that excited about the first film either.

X-Men: Apocalypse

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The prior effort scored a nomination for Best Visual Effects, breaking a recent Iron Man-only shut out at the Oscars. This film isn’t likely to feature the same dazzling use of special effects, but it has plenty of them, which could be enough.”
Oscar Results: The visual effects might still be a factor as they were for its immediate predecessor, but I suspect the Quicksilver segment might get old quick with these voters, in spite of still being impressive.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The franchise has done well. Not as well as Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe, but most of their films have been consistently performing between $150 and $240 million. This time, they have much higher stakes, lots of destruction and a growing stable of superheroes. As the First Class and Days of Future Past prove, there’s still life in the franchise and there seems to be growing interest in the films.”
Box Office Results: $155.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Perhaps sequel fatigue is setting in or the marketing wasn’t enough to sell the film. Unfortunately, the most recent X-Men film just couldn’t muster more than adequate success. The numbers aren’t bad in general, but they should have been much higher. That the critics didn’t support this film as they have its predecessors may have hurt it.