Every week, we’ll take a look back in 5-year intervals at the box office past to explore how Oscar’s nominees were doing at the box office each weekend historically. All data is collected from Box Office Mojo. The first section under each year is the positioning of all Oscar nominees during that weekend at the box office (as well as a section looking at the inflation-adjusted numbers). The third section is an alphabetical list of those films and the categories in which they were nominated. And to start each week off, we’ll be looking at the films releasing over the weekend that have the best chance of getting Oscar nominations and specifying the categories where we think they have the best shots at this stage of the game. If you have any suggestions for more data you’d like to see, please let us know.

This Year: Potential Oscar Nominees Releasing This Weekend

Sully (Wide)

Oscar Potential: Picture, Director, Actor (Tom Hanks), Supporting Actress (Laura Linney), Supporting Actor (Aaron Eckhart), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing.

5 Years Ago: The Weekend of Sep. 16-18, 2011

Weekend Box Office:

3. Drive – $11,340,461 ($11,340,461 total) {week 1}
4. The Help – $6,513,039 ($147,439,793 total) {week 6}
8. Warrior – $2,860,325 ($10,002,625 total) {week 2}
9. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – $2,658,131 ($171,651,537 total) {week 7}
19. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – $700,498 ($378,180,621 total) {week 10}
23. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $469,208 ($351,331,987 total) {week 12}
27. Midnight in Paris – $340,770 ($54,060,597 total) {week 18}
36. Bridesmaids – $126,565 ($168,944,100 total) {week 19}
39. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $97,451 ($165,128,182 total) {week 17}
55. The Tree of Life – $35,318 ($13,150,733 total) {week 17}
111. Incendies – $1,464 ($2,069,117 total) {week 22}

Weekend Box Office (Adjusted for Inflation):

3. Drive – $11,683,678 ($11,683,678 total)
4. The Help – $6,710,155 ($151,902,031 total)
8. Warrior – $2,946,892 ($10,305,353 total)
9. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – $2,738,579 ($176,846,539 total)
19. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – $721,698 ($389,626,188 total)
23. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $483,408 ($361,964,985 total)
27. Midnight in Paris – $351,083 ($55,696,731 total)
36. Bridesmaids – $130,395 ($174,057,162 total)
39. Kung Fu Panda 2 – $100,400 ($170,125,756 total)
55. The Tree of Life – $36,387 ($13,548,738 total)
111. Incendies – $1,508 ($2,131,738 total)

Oscar Details:

• Bridesmaids: Supporting Actress (Melissa McCarthy), Original Screenplay
• Drive: Sound Editing
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2: Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects
• The Help: Picture, Actress (Viola Davis), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chastain, Octavia Spencer [O])
• Incendies: Foreign Language Film
• Kung Fu Panda 2: Animated Feature
• Midnight in Paris: Picture, Directing, Original Screenplay [O], Art Direction
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes: Visual Effects
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
• The Tree of Life: Picture, Directing, Cinematography
• Warrior: Supporting Actor (Nick Nolte)

10 Years Ago: The Weekend of Sep. 15-17, 2006

Weekend Box Office:

7. The Illusionist – $3,623,084 ($23,126,885 total) {week 5}
8. Little Miss Sunshine – $3,319,124 ($46,359,579 total) {week 8}
17. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – $1,282,394 ($418,423,143 total) {week 11}
23. Monster House – $390,172 ($71,885,152 total) {week 9}
24. Superman Returns – $386,424 ($198,008,105 total) {week 12}
25. Cars – $345,867 ($243,067,357 total) {week 15}
26. The Devil Wears Prada – $337,521 ($123,195,772 total) {week 12}
30. Half Nelson – $279,112 ($1,441,944 total) {week 6}
32. Click – $233,594 ($137,114,211 total) {week 13}
43. An Inconvenient Truth – $69,055 ($23,492,829 total) {week 17}
76. Jesus Camp – $17,659 ($17,659 total) {week 1}
93. Water – $6,434 ($3,238,340 total) {week 21}

Weekend Box Office (Adjusted for Inflation):

7. The Illusionist – $4,519,175 ($28,846,817 total)
8. Little Miss Sunshine – $4,140,037 ($57,825,612 total)
17. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – $1,599,566 ($521,911,004 total)
23. Monster House – $486,673 ($89,664,380 total)
24. Superman Returns – $481,998 ($246,981,102 total)
25. Cars – $431,410 ($303,184,780 total)
26. The Devil Wears Prada – $420,999 ($153,665,566 total)
30. Half Nelson – $348,144 ($1,798,577 total)
32. Click – $291,368 ($171,026,428 total)
43. An Inconvenient Truth – $86,134 ($29,303,269 total)
76. Jesus Camp – $22,027 ($22,027 total)
93. Water – $8,025 ($4,039,273 total)

Oscar Details:

• Cars: Animated Feature, Original Song (“Our Town”)
• Click: Makeup
• The Devil Wears Prada: Actress (Meryl Streep), Costume Design
• Half Nelson: Actor (Ryan Gosling)
• The Illusionist: Cinematography
• An Inconvenient Truth: Original Song (“I Need to Wake Up” [O]), Documentary Feature [O]
• Jesus Camp: Documentary Feature
• Little Miss Sunshine: Picture, Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin [O]), Supporting Actress (Abigail Breslin), Original Screenplay [O]
• Monster House: Animated Feature
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest: Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects [O]
• Superman Returns: Visual Effects
• Water: Foreign Language Film

15 Years Ago: The Weekend of Seo. 14-16, 2001

Weekend Box Office:

21. Shrek – $400,726 ($263,977,441 total) {week 18}
25. Ghost World – $373,993 ($4,190,828 total) {week 9}
37. Pearl Harbor – $129,408 ($197,196,285 total) {week 17}
46. Moulin Rouge! – $88,026 ($56,384,524 total) {week 18}
56. A.I. Artificial Intelligence – $54,250 ($78,557,613 total) {week 12}
57. Memento – $52,085 ($25,416,042 total) {week 27}
58. Sexy Beast – $50,707 ($6,652,057 total) {week 14}

Weekend Box Office (Adjusted for Inflation):

21. Shrek – $578,433 ($381,041,642 total)
25. Ghost World – $539,845 ($6,049,305 total)
37. Pearl Harbor – $186,796 ($284,645,521 total)
46. Moulin Rouge! – $127,062 ($81,388,968 total)
56. A.I. Artificial Intelligence – $78,308 ($113,395,000 total)
57. Memento – $75,183 ($36,687,114 total)
58. Sexy Beast – $73,194 ($9,601,997 total)

Oscar Details:

• A.I. Artificial Intelligence: Original Score, Visual Effects
• Ghost World: Adapted Screenplay
• Memento: Original Screenplay, Film Editing
• Moulin Rouge!: Picture, Actress (Nicole Kidman), Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction [O], Costume Design [O], Makeup, Sound
• Pearl Harbor: Original Song (“There You’ll Be”), Sound, Sound Editing [O], Visual Effects
• Sexy Beast: Supporting Actor (Ben Kingsley)
• Shrek: Animated Feature [O], Adapted Screenplay

20 Years Ago: The Weekend of Sep. 13-15, 1996

Weekend Box Office:

2. Fly Away Home – $4,708,044 ($4,708,044 total) {week 1}
9. Independence Day – $2,064,424 ($288,445,301 total) {week 11}
14. Emma – $1,477,357 ($18,004,678 total) {week 7}
15. The Nutty Professor – $1,130,225 ($122,651,335 total) {week 12}
999. The Rock – $488,413 ($132,273,020 total) {week 15}

Weekend Box Office (Adjusted for Inflation):

2. Fly Away Home – $8,702,425 ($8,702,425 total)
9. Independence Day – $3,815,915 ($533,166,993 total)
14. Emma – $2,730,771 ($33,280,140 total)
15. The Nutty Professor – $2,089,126 ($226,710,726 total)
999. The Rock – $902,791 ($244,495,605 total)

Oscar Details:

• Emma: Original Musical or Comedy Score [O], Costume Design
• Fly Away Home: Cinematography
• Independence Day: Sound, Visual Effects [O]
• The Nutty Professor: Makeup [O]
• The Rock: Sound

25 Years Ago: The Weekend of Sep. 13-15, 1991

Weekend Box Office:

3. The Commitments – $2,511,091 ($6,419,577 total) {week 5}
4. Terminator 2: Judgment Day – $2,481,453 ($190,746,136 total) {week 11}
8. Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves – $1,843,454 ($155,566,016 total) {week 14}
10. City Slickers – $1,323,674 ($116,014,390 total) {week 15}
11. Boyz N the Hood – $1,031,725 ($52,456,023 total) {week 10}
999. Barton Fink – $718,723 ($1,936,563 total) {week 4}
999. The Silence of the Lambs – $87,831 ($130,433,755 total) {week 31}

Weekend Box Office (Adjusted for Inflation):

3. The Commitments – $4,873,067 ($12,457,944 total)
4. Terminator 2: Judgment Day – $4,815,551 ($370,165,304 total)
8. Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves – $3,577,439 ($301,894,145 total)
10. City Slickers – $2,568,745 ($225,139,564 total)
11. Boyz N the Hood – $2,002,184 ($101,797,080 total)
999. Barton Fink – $1,394,766 ($3,758,128 total)
999. The Silence of the Lambs – $170,446 ($253,122,038 total)

Oscar Details:

• Barton Fink: Supporting Actor (Michael Lerner), Art Direction, Costume Design
• Boyz N the Hood: Directing, Original Screenplay
• City Slickers: Supporting Actor (Jack Palance) [O]
• The Commitments: Film Editing
• Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves: Original Song (“(Everything I Do) I Do It for You”)
• The Silence of the Lambs: Picture [O], Directing [O], Actor (Anthony Hopkins) [O], Actress (Jodie Foster) [O], Adapted Screenplay [O], Film Editing, Sound
• Terminator 2: Judgment Day: Editing, Cinematography, Makeup [O], Sound [O], Sound Effects [O], Visual Effects [O]

30 Years Ago: The Weekend of Sep. 12-14, 1986

Weekend Box Office:

1. Stand By Me – $3,010,922 ($20,417,832 total) {week 6}
2. Top Gun – $3,004,108 ($139,689,082 total) {week 18}
3. The Fly – $1,905,248 ($28,865,407 total) {week 5}
4. The Karate Kid Part II – $1,883,248 ($104,046,551 total) {week 13}
5. Aliens – $1,636,417 ($71,650,757 total) {week 9}

Weekend Box Office (Adjusted for Inflation):

1. Stand By Me – $6,630,521 ($44,963,258 total)
2. Top Gun – $6,615,515 ($307,617,197 total)
3. The Fly – $4,195,654 ($63,566,139 total)
4. The Karate Kid Part II – $4,147,207 ($229,126,771 total)
5. Aliens – $3,603,646 ($157,786,168 total)

Oscar Details:

• Aliens: Actress (Sigourney Weaver), Original Score, Film Editing, Art Direction, Sound, Sound Effects Editing [O], Visual Effects [O]
• The Fly: Makeup [O]
• The Karate Kid Part II: Original Song (“Glory of Love”)
• Stand By Me: Adapted Screenplay
• Top Gun: Original Song (“Take My Breath Away” [O]), Editing, Sound, Sound Effects