March 4, 2016

Desierto

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. This seems like the kind of film that should receive a limited release and then platform based on word of mouth. It seems like the kind of film that will get lost against bigger films.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Rescheduled to 10/14/16

London Has Fallen

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The original film scored a surprise $98 million at the box office. It did well enough, in fact, to merit a sequel, this time set in London. While some will want to see what happens to their favorite POTUS and Secret Service agent, the foreign setting paired with audiences that aren’t always appreciative of redundancy may just mean the film doesn’t live up to the same expectations.”
Box Office Results: $65.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Compared to the original, this total isn’t very good. For the genre, it isn’t very good. However, it is slightly under expectations for a sequel no one wanted.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Tina Fey doesn’t have the greatest track record at the box office, but she’s done fairly well across all of her films. That being said, this Afghanistan-set political comedy might not draw much interest from her less enlightened fans.”
Box Office Results: $23.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Everything seemed to point towards this being a strong performer at the box office, but the war-set comedy just wasn’t on the watch list for many viewers.

Zootopia

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. A nomination is almost assured. It’s Disney, after all. However, if it’s a disappointment like The Good Dinosaur was, it might be on the bubble. It certainly doesn’t seem like a pre-destined winner.”
Oscar Results: A Best Animated Feature nomination is assured. A Best Original Screenplay nomination is a strong possibility. Wins for either of those categories are a bit more iffy, though it is probably the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature at this juncture.
Box Office Prospects: $190 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. If it weren’t for the Disney association, I might suspect that this film would end up on the Over the Hedge end of the animation spectrum, around $155 million. However, this is Disney and their last four major efforts (Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, Frozen and Big Hero 6) were all massive hits, each approaching, hitting or exceeding the $200 million range. However, this is their first such film releasing early in the year, which might depress audience interest a bit. On top of that, the film doesn’t feel like it hits the level of broad interest those other films did.”
Box Office Results: $341.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) When Disney makes a success, they make a success. A surprisingly strong, make that extraordinary, box office performance solidifies the Mouse House as an undisputed leader in the industry.

Knight of Cups (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. After its festival debut, no one seemed to be giving the film credit. While Malick has a strong track record with the Academy, even To the Wonder‘s acclaimed cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki couldn’t get a nomination.”
Oscar Results: The critics weren’t kind, nor was the box office. This one is out of the running if it ever was in the running.
Box Office Prospects: $0.7 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Unless critics supports his films, Terrence Malick has no box office clout. His last film made less than $1 million a the box office. I suspect we’re about to have another performance in that range.”
Box Office Results: $0.566 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Audiences aren’t particularly enamored with Terrence Malick. It now seems like cineastes aren’t anymore either.

March 11, 2016

10 Cloverfield Lane

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Since Cloverfield‘s release, the film has earned something of a following. While this isn’t a sequel to that found-footage horror flick, this film is set during the same conflict, which should yield plenty of box office bucks.”
Box Office Results: $72.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t perform up to its predecessor’s numbers, these tallies are very strong for a genre pic in the dead of March, especially when so many other films are failing to live up to expectations.

The Brothers Grimsby

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. His debut as a director, Borat, was a box office smash taking in $128 million at the box office. However, his two subsequent lead roles, Bruno and The Dictator did around $60 million. His brand only has so much clout and I suspect this film will lose out to 10 Cloverfield Lane over generally similar demographics.”
Box Office Results: $6.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Sasha Baron Cohen may be done with comedy for awhile after this dismal performance. Of course, he may just try to go back to his Ali G roots and try for another Borat-type endeavor.

The Other Side of the Door

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror films do decent business, but only if they build around a supernatural theme. This one does, but there’s been very little advertising done so far, which suggests it might not have long legs.”
Box Office Results: $3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Almost no advertising, plus a lackluster premise mean this film was dead on arrival.

The Perfect Match

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Paul Patton hasn’t had a lot of hits and the rest of the cast isn’t particularly recognizable. It could reach its targeted demographic, but not, I don’t think, to a measurable degree.”
Box Office Results: $9.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The audience should have been there, but apparently this wasn’t the right time or right film to make a success out of it.

The Young Messiah

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Positioned during Lent, it could do solid business from Christian audiences, but being a break out hit I wouldn’t expect.”
Box Office Results: $6.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Religious audiences don’t seem enamored with their recent choices at the box office with this latest dismal flop.

Eye in the Sky (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. There might be a push for a posthumous nomination for Alan Rickman, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. You don’t release to the specialty box office in March if you think you have an Oscar contender on hand.”
Oscar Results: The film just didn’t measure up with critics, so even a strong box office result isn’t going to help it.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s hard to find an adequate precedent for this kind of film. A film about the use of drones in the fight overseas starring two dominant British thespians seems like it might play better in Europe than it will in the U.S.”
Box Office Results: $18.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Although it never became a breakout hit, Eye in the Sky outperformed my modest expectations.

Hello, My Name Is Doris (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. Sally Field was said to give a performance that could merit an Oscar nomination, but the film didn’t secure release in time and has now been buried in March. At this point, I doubt she can hold on until the end of the year.”
Oscar Results: Even though it was a small box office success, I doubt the Academy will remember it after 9 months.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I can’t imagine this being a hit outside of the specialty box office, and even then its chances are meager.”
Box Office Results: $14.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Sally Field still has some fight left in her at the box office. While it might not be the big box office hit she might have had some thirty years ago, on the specialty circuit, this is quite strong.

March 18, 2016

The Bounce Back

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I just can’t imagine this film being a huge hit.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: No Longer on the Release Calendar

Divergent Series: Allegiant

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The second film earned roughly $20 million less than its predecessor. For the first half of a two-part film, I doubt it will live up to either’s performance.”
Box Office Results: $66.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The critics savaged the film and the attempt to break it into two features may have backfired, leading it to post a rather poor tally.

Miracles from Heaven

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The closest comparison here is Heaven Is for Real, which scored just over $90 million at the box office. This film could do well, but I wonder if the same level of box office performance should actually be expected.”
Box Office Results: $61.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While it did decently well for what it was, it didn’t quite live up to the expectations of the studio that greenlit it hoping for a huge hit.

Midnight Special (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. There’s been chatter about each of Jeff Nichols’ last two films, none of which materialized.”
Oscar Results: Without a strong box office, no manner of great reviews can help the film.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There’s the likelihood that this stays at the specialty box office and never moves beyond. There’s also the distant possibility that it crosses over.”
Box Office Results: $3.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The premise alone should have been catnip for certain audiences, but the film failed to dig itself out of the specialty box office and indie cinema fans don’t typically jump on board with this kind of film.

March 25, 2016

Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While Man of Steel didn’t make inroads with Oscar, this sequel has the possibility, though it has lots of competition this year.”
Oscar Results: There was plenty of visual effects work, but competition will be strong this year, so I would put this film down in pencil.
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Man of Steel managed to earn close to $300 million just 3 years ago. There has been enough anticipation built up for this film and a lack of serious competition that it could easily hit that threshold again.”
Box Office Results: $330.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Not too much above expectations, this film’s performance was right in the window it needed to be to be considered a success.

The Disappointments Room

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the horror genre has more misses than hits lately, D.J. Caruso, who scored hits with Eagle Eye and Disturbia could get his Kate Beckinsale-starring film into a better position than most in the genre recently.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: Rescheduled to 11/18/16

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A crowdpleaser from fourteen years ago that turned into a staggering $241 million sleeper finally has a sequel. Most people look back on that film with derision now, so can it materialize a hefty box office. I doubt it.”
Box Office Results: $59.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was never going to be the hit that the original film was, but the studio was hoping nonetheless. The end result was a bit weaker than expected, but still satisfactory for a film of its budget.

I Saw the Light (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. At one time, Tom Hiddleston was being talked up as a potential Oscar nominee. That talk has largely died down now and I don’t think we’ll see the film anywhere near the Oscars at this point.”
Oscar Results: Without box office support and a weak set of reviews, the film is certain to be forgotten.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Country music stars haven’t had many biopics done in recent years. Walk the Line is the last I can remember. Yet, there’s no sign that this film will do that film’s level of business. Matter of fact, with the push out of Oscar season, the March release and the subject’s grandson vocalizing his dismay with the film, I doubt it does much business.”
Box Office Results: $1.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Another in a long string of box office failures. Thirty years ago, it might have been a hit. Today, it wasn’t barely a blip.